Desperate House Buys RTE One 9:40pm

beauf

Stheno wrote: »

Agreed, I know of one company looking for specialist IT staff in an area of the country that is very very cheap to live in.

They can't get them for love or money as the salaries are well below Dublin averages, and it's essentially a rural area.

They are now looking at recruiting from North England with relocation packages

Offer enough money and they'll get people from everywhere.

Stheno

beauf wrote: »

Offer enough money and they'll get people from everywhere.

Oddly they won't offer that money

ted1

beauf wrote: »

Offer enough money and they'll get people from everywhere.

Kind of defeats the purpose....

baggytiger

Actually Dublin house prices are NOT going up, according to the latest figures available. And RTE are guilty of – let's be kind – being economical with the truth about that fact.

If you first look at the CSO's “Dublin houses” price index for Mar 2014 (sorry, can't post the link because I don't have enough posts), you'll see the latest 3-month change is -1.8%. Yes, negative.

Now if you contrast that with the picture presented in the Desperate House Buys doco (back on RTE Player this evening anyway), between 18:04 and 18:14, you'll hear the narrator say (with reference to the CSO's figures) “During the first 3 months of 2014, house prices within the M50 roared ahead with an almost 14% increase”.

To be fair, this 14% isn't completely fictitious, but it's actually the 12-month rise. And if you look at how the CSO's index has varied over the past year, it's clear that most of that rise happened over the space of a few months last summer. For example, the biggest 3-month rise was 10.2% from June to September.

Yet the documentary presents it as if it's an even bigger 3-month rise than that, and as if it's only just happened this year, the latest figures available, stoking fears that it might rapidly go even higher.

There was indeed a rapid increase in prices. But it happened last year, and now it's run out of steam.

RTE are out of date already. Desperate House Buys is “sooo 2013”.

Stheno

baggytiger wrote: »

Actually Dublin house prices are NOT going up, according to the latest figures available. And RTE are guilty of – let's be kind – being economical with the truth about that fact.

If you first look at the CSO's “Dublin houses” price index for Mar 2014 (sorry, can't post the link because I don't have enough posts), you'll see the latest 3-month change is -1.8%. Yes, negative.

Now if you contrast that with the picture presented in the Desperate House Buys doco (back on RTE Player this evening anyway), between 18:04 and 18:14, you'll hear the narrator say (with reference to the CSO's figures) “During the first 3 months of 2014, house prices within the M50 roared ahead with an almost 14% increase”.

To be fair, this 14% isn't completely fictitious, but it's actually the 12-month rise. And if you look at how the CSO's index has varied over the past year, it's clear that most of that rise happened over the space of a few months last summer. For example, the biggest 3-month rise was 10.2% from June to September.

Yet the documentary presents it as if it's an even bigger 3-month rise than that, and as if it's only just happened this year, the latest figures available, stoking fears that it might rapidly go even higher.

There was indeed a rapid increase in prices. But it happened last year, and now it's run out of steam.

RTE are out of date already. Desperate House Buys is “sooo 2013”.

And if you consider the seasonal nature of house buying, e.g. less buying in Jan than April, those figures year on year are more accurate.

I'd prefer data over 12 months than three tbh

maryishere

beauf wrote: »

Offer enough money and they'll get people from everywhere.

some people I know in to things like mountain biking and surfing would give their right arm to live near the west, and they would get much more bang for their buck with regard to accommodation too. Oh, and cheaper pubs. Less crime too.
Dublin prices will peak again very soon if not already. The country is unbalanced.

Stheno

maryishere wrote: »

some people I know in to things like mountain biking and surfing would give their right arm to live near the west, and they would get much more bang for their buck with regard to accommodation too. Oh, and cheaper pubs. Less crime too.
Dublin prices will peak again very soon if not already. The country iunbalanced.

I live in North County Dublin, can commute to work in less than an hour every day.

I have multiple options for sailing (which I do as a sport) huge areas of history to explore within 50km, great walks, and regularly leave my front door unlocked (well the OH does)

Yet I live within 15 km of Dublin City Centre

AlwaysAnyTime

Gam wrote: »

If not, they should just buy what they need and what they can afford, where they want and when they are ready. No panic about negative equities, no rush, no killer mortgages, no stupid investments.

But if I don't get on the ladder now, I may never be able to afford to buy. !!!! Etc etc

No joke, a colleague actually advised me today to purchase a house soon before prices rise too high again. I looked at him with bewildered amusement for a moment.

ted1

baggytiger wrote: »

Actually Dublin house prices are NOT going up, according to the latest figures available. And RTE are guilty of – let's be kind – being economical with the truth about that fact.

If you first look at the CSO's “Dublin houses” price index for Mar 2014 (sorry, can't post the link because I don't have enough posts), you'll see the latest 3-month change is -1.8%. Yes, negative.

Now if you contrast that with the picture presented in the Desperate House Buys doco (back on RTE Player this evening anyway), between 18:04 and 18:14, you'll hear the narrator say (with reference to the CSO's figures) “During the first 3 months of 2014, house prices within the M50 roared ahead with an almost 14% increase”.

To be fair, this 14% isn't completely fictitious, but it's actually the 12-month rise. And if you look at how the CSO's index has varied over the past year, it's clear that most of that rise happened over the space of a few months last summer. For example, the biggest 3-month rise was 10.2% from June to September.

Yet the documentary presents it as if it's an even bigger 3-month rise than that, and as if it's only just happened this year, the latest figures available, stoking fears that it might rapidly go even higher.

There was indeed a rapid increase in prices. But it happened last year, and now it's run out of steam.

RTE are out of date already. Desperate House Buys is “sooo 2013”.

The CSO ignores cash sales

Zamboni

ted1 wrote: »

The CSO ignores cash sales

It does indeed.
Hopefully, one day they will provide reports covering those too.

The CSO is currently examining Stamp Duty returns to the Revenue Commissioners, made via the Revenue Online Service (ROS), with a view to assessing both the extent of cash-based full market price transactions and any potential bias in the RPPI that might accrue from their exclusion.

baggytiger

ted1 wrote: »

The CSO ignores cash sales

Agreed, it does. But would you like to expand on what you think are the implications of that?

Citroen2cv

riclad wrote: »

Dublin has the advantage in that it has plenty of modern office space ,
with a large amount of young graduates looking for work.

i,m sure theres lots of young people who would love to live in kerry, cork etc
Whether there is jobs for them there is another story.

True, Dublin does have lots of young skilled graduates, but many of these young skilled graduates have moved up from down the country. They would be just as happy living back down the country, working at their skilled job.

Theboinkmaster

baggytiger wrote: »

Agreed, it does. But would you like to expand on what you think are the implications of that?

Since 40-60% of current transactions are in cash the CSO stats can't tell you overall if prices are going up or down as only sampling half the transactions.

ted1

baggytiger wrote: »

Agreed, it does. But would you like to expand on what you think are the implications of that?

So there figures and facts are irrelevant as they exclude a huge portion of the market

Zamboni

ted1 wrote: »

So there figures and facts are irrelevant as they exclude a huge portion of the market

The scope of the report is a residential property price index based on mortgage drawdowns.
It is perfectly adequate for it's purpose.
It is of limited value in the context of overall property prices but it is not irrelevant.

baggytiger

ted1 wrote: »

So there figures and facts are irrelevant as they exclude a huge portion of the market

"Irrelevant" is rather a strong word to use about statistics that cover (if the previous post is accurate) about half of the market, with no clear indication that the other half might be significantly different. After all, the prices paid by mortgage buyers will often be affected by competition from cash buyers.

In any case, the people likely to be scared by the RTE doco into "getting onto the housing ladder ASAP" and providing more fuel to a bubble will, I'd guess, be mainly mortgage buyers. In which case, the prices mortgage buyers are having to pay are what is of interest to them, even if it isn't the full picture.

ted1

Zamboni wrote: »

The scope of the report is a residential property price index based on mortgage drawdowns.
It is perfectly adequate for it's purpose.
It is of limited value in the context of overall property prices but it is not irrelevant.

Babytiger wasn't using it in the scope of the draw downs, he was using to as abroad sweeping statement about all property price.

Even in the terms of mortgage drawdown does it only look at the mortgage or the property price?
A Lower LTV would also skew the results.

jmayo

hfallada wrote: »

Do you honestly think an Italian, American or German moving to Ireland from a massive city will live in town of 20,000 people? That has no native speakers of their language, nothing to do and **** quality of housing. It has no nightlife or shopping. Its also hours from Dublin airport.

Now every foreigner coming to Ireland is from a big city.
Some actually are from small places like here.
Have you ever actually seen the nighlife in some of the smaller towns/cities in other countries.
And as for shopping, we have longer opening hours etc in our small towns than they have in some big cities.

You do know there are other airports in Ireland ???

Dublin is attractive as its a young person city with lots of things to do. It also has tons of quality of office. Something you wont find in the middle of nowhere. You could argue if you build offices,Facebook etc will move to Kerry. But there is no law firms, banks, accountancy firms etc. Something found in Dublin. If you study business, you will hear of clustering. A firm locates in one area, as firms from the same industry locate there.

Using your imagery it sounds like there is tumbleweed rolling down every street outside the grand metropolis of Dublin.

And when most people are talking about developing centres outside of Dublin they aren't really talking about Killorglin, Drumshambo, Claremorris, Birr.
They are talking about the likes of Galway, Limerick/Shannon, Cork.

Stheno wrote: »

It's where most of the skilled staff are tbh

Ehh a fair chunk of that skilled staff are not from Dublin in the first place.
Anywhere I have worked in Dublin area at least 50% of the IT staff are non Dubs, thankfully.
There is only so much insufferable braying one can put up with come August/September when a fair chunk of them suddenly discover Croke Park :mad:

Stheno wrote: »

Outside of Dublin, Cork, Athlone, and to a limited respect Galway, I can't think of anywhere which has a significant clustering of IT, Pharma etc in the country?

Ehh I would put Galway ahead of Athlone.
It has always had a fair degree of high tech firms.
Granted some have come and gone over the years.

Oh and you are forgetting Limerick/Shannon.

These areas should be developed more and a more balanced spread of employment achieved in the country.

ted1 wrote: »

They make a dozen cranes a year. Hardly an IT hub.

It is probably easier to move a lot of IT software firms than a crane manufacturer.
And that crane manufacturer has been in Kerry longer than most of the IT firms have been in existence, nevermind how long some have been here.
And lets not bother looking at the percentage of corporation tax it actually probably pays here.

The problem in this bloody country is too many people look down their noses at manufacturing and end up waffling on about knowledge and smart economies.

Zamboni

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh a fair chunk of that skilled staff are not from Dublin in the first place.
Anywhere I have worked in Dublin area at least 50% of the IT staff are non Dubs, thankfully.
There is only so much insufferable braying one can put up with come August/September when a fair chunk of them suddenly discover Croke Park :mad:

Ah here, leave it bleedin out

I do agree though, if there were regional jobs, many of our country friends would be bloody delighted to stay in their county of birth.

drumswan

maryishere wrote: »

correct. With improved road networks and a move towards sustainable healthier living, the great outdoors etc many people prefer the quality of life at key strategic locations elsewhere in the country rather than Dublin. There are lots of successful companies in the country within say 50 minutes or an hour of an airport, a city or large town, an IT, the ocean and mountains etc. The middle of nowhere is bad for business too, but there is a happy compromise.

The people who want to work for Google et al. do not want to live in the country or in provincial "cities" in Ireland. Dublin is competing against the likes of London for these staff, the likes of Limerick has no chance.

ionapaul

drumswan wrote: »

The people who want to work for Google et al. do not want to live in the country or in provincial "cities" in Ireland. Dublin is competing against the likes of London for these staff, the likes of Limerick has no chance.

Agreed - even though Cork, Limerick or Galway are relatively attractive to many Irish people (though I'm from Galway city and probably won't ever move back, it's too small for my tastes, even Dublin isn't really cosmopolitan enough!), I don't see any chance to attract the quantity of highly-education European workers needed to anywhere in Ireland other than Dublin.

The Government has supposedly been pressured by various MNC executives to work to drive down the cost of accommodation in Dublin, in order to make the city as attractive as possible to these mainly transient workers - but they seem to be ignoring the request and driving ahead with policies designed to keep prices high...

Sleepy

As an IT worker, I'd love to move back home to Galway. However, I'm unlikely to move back for anything other than a Public Sector / Semi-State role i.e. a "job for life", there simply isn't enough relevant employment there for me to be able to pick up a new job if the initial role that attracted me back didn't work out.

ThunbergsAreGo

Sleepy wrote: »

As an IT worker, I'd love to move back home to Galway. However, I'm unlikely to move back for anything other than a Public Sector / Semi-State role i.e. a "job for life", there simply isn't enough relevant employment there for me to be able to pick up a new job if the initial role that attracted me back didn't work out.

Thats the big thing for me, its ok saying you can get a job in Galway etc but if that doesnt work out the options simply arent there, this in accordance with people moving jobs more than ever in fields such as IT keep demad high in Dublin has it has this increased flexability

ryan101

Sleepy wrote: »

As an IT worker, I'd love to move back home to Galway. However, I'm unlikely to move back for anything other than a Public Sector / Semi-State role i.e. a "job for life", there simply isn't enough relevant employment there for me to be able to pick up a new job if the initial role that attracted me back didn't work out.

And therein lies the problem, there is no reason IT work, and many other jobs in this day and age, cannot be located in regional cities.
The 16th century mono city culture is wrecking both Dublin and the rest of the country.

alias no.9

Sleepy wrote: »

As an IT worker, I'd love to move back home to Galway. However, I'm unlikely to move back for anything other than a Public Sector / Semi-State role i.e. a "job for life", there simply isn't enough relevant employment there for me to be able to pick up a new job if the initial role that attracted me back didn't work out.

And that's the key thing. That's what clustering does. To be fair Galway does have an excellent cluster of medical device companies and attracts new investment based on this.

riclad

I think its to do with the no of young people here,in dublin
the infrastructure ,
airport , more than something from the 16th century.
The reason theres so many european workers coming here is because partly ,
our education system is not producing enough graduates skilled in it and foreign
languages to meet the demand.

IF there were large tech companys based in cork , galway i don,t think they,d have
a problem attracting european workers .
Most young people come to dublin for work or for education reasons.
They, d go to other irish citys if the jobs were there.

Look at the us, san francisco , many tech companys are based there ,
even though theres many other american citys where rents are cheaper and theres plenty of educated young people looking for work.

ryan101

riclad wrote: »

I think its to do with the no of young people here,in dublin
the infrastructure ,
airport , more than something from the 16th century.
The reason theres so many european workers coming here is because partly ,
our education system is not producing enough graduates skilled in it and foreign
languages to meet the demand.

IF there were large tech companys based in cork , galway i don,t think they,d have
a problem attracting european workers .
Most young people come to dublin for work or for education reasons.
They, d go to other irish citys if the jobs were there.

But that's exactly the point, there is no reason many such jobs could not be located in regional cities. There is no need for a mono city culture in Ireland.

Sleepy

The difficulty is how do you get the first few companies to set up there? Once there's 3/4 large multi-national sized companies in an area, more will set up and the talent and graduates will head there.

Maybe if you make offers like "0% corporation tax for 5 years if you employ more than 500 people in Galway, Cork or Limerick" you might get some traction but the left would go mad at the notion of companies paying no corporation tax (completely ignoring the amount of PAYE / PRSI / USC etc. that would be raised through the additional employment).

Attracting the talent shouldn't be that big a problem. Offer me Dublin level wages in Galway and I'd re-locate and I'm sure the same would be true of many others (I'd still be hesitant to buy property there, at least, initially but time could take care of that one). As Stheno pointed out earlier in the thread though: the fact is that the salaries being offered by many companies trying to set up IT based industries in rural areas aren't high enough to attract experienced workers and graduates who might be prepared to work for those salary levels either aren't experienced enough or would rather start their career in a city where there's more entertainment options.

jmayo

Sleepy wrote: »

The difficulty is how do you get the first few companies to set up there? Once there's 3/4 large multi-national sized companies in an area, more will set up and the talent and graduates will head there.

Maybe if you make offers like "0% corporation tax for 5 years if you employ more than 500 people in Galway, Cork or Limerick" you might get some traction but the left would go mad at the notion of companies paying no corporation tax (completely ignoring the amount of PAYE / PRSI / USC etc. that would be raised through the additional employment).

The thing is some of the big companies will only pay as much as only a few percent and not just over 5 years either.

alias no.9

ryan101 wrote: »

But that's exactly the point, there is no reason many such jobs could not be located in regional cities. There is no need for a mono city culture in Ireland.

Whatever abut Cork, Galway simply isn't big enough to support a rapid scaling up of large Tech operations or to absorb the shutdown of one. They've done well concentrating on Medical Devices and are actually a model for other places in the creation of the kind of critical mass in an industry that makes them a global contender for investment in that industry.