Cope 275 votes behind Harkin as recount begins today

Glenman

Pat the Cope has a battle on his hands to retain his European seat. We will see how the recount goes. I was wondering, in the last count Matt Carthy's surplus of around 6,000 votes were distributed. How do they select which 6,000 of his 135,000 votes to choose for distribution? Do they choose 6,000 ballad papers where Carthy got no.1 to distribute? For example, if they choose them all from Donegal then the Cope would be more likely to get more no. 2's than Harkin and visa versa if they choose the 6,000 from the Sligo-Leitrim area. Was just wondering ;-)

retalivity

no, I believe that the 6,000 are from whatever the last transfers to carthy were to bring him over the quota. They (should) be a mix of votes from all over the constituency. However, the votes that brought carthy over the quota and were then distributed as surplus were transfers from Byrne (FF) so you would think a lot of those would be have gone to Pat the Cope anyway.
Don't understand why Ming's surplus wasn't already distributed after he reached the quota though

L1011

retalivity wrote: »

Don't understand why Ming's surplus wasn't already distributed after he reached the quota though

Because at no point was anyone close enough for it to have an impact (its tiny), there were much larger elimination figures to distribute.

muffler

retalivity wrote: »

Don't understand why Ming's surplus wasn't already distributed after he reached the quota though

Pretty well explained here

In a dramatic finale to this marathon count, Mr Gallagher attracted 3,330 transfers, bringing his total to 106,245. However, with 1,109 transfers from Mr Carthy’s surplus, Ms Harkin’s total came to 106,520, some 275 votes ahead of Mr Gallagher. There was a 271 surplus from Luke Ming Flanagan’s election in the second count but that did not come into play because it was less – by four votes – than the number of votes separating the two candidates.

echo beach

Glenman wrote: »

Pat the Cope has a battle on his hands to retain his European seat. We will see how the recount goes. I was wondering, in the last count Matt Carthy's surplus of around 6,000 votes were distributed. How do they select which 6,000 of his 135,000 votes to choose for distribution? Do they choose 6,000 ballad papers where Carthy got no.1 to distribute? For example, if they choose them all from Donegal then the Cope would be more likely to get more no. 2's than Harkin and visa versa if they choose the 6,000 from the Sligo-Leitrim area. Was just wondering ;-)

Each person who votes has a Single Transferable Vote (STV), which means that your vote can only be used to elect one person. If you gave Matt Carthy your no 1 then he needed that vote to be elected, plus all the transfers he got in subsequent counts and about 2,000 of the transfers he got from Byrne. That brought him to the quota and he then had a surplus (extra votes he didn't need). All of his surplus came from Byrne's transfers. He didn't have one before that count so those are the votes his surplus most come from to be re-distributed.
Not all of them were No 1 for Byrne. They include votes he picked up during other counts. All the votes were mixed as they came to Castlebar from the various counties so the process is as fair as possible.

I was surprised to hear Vincent Browne say last night that it was an arbitrary choice for convenience to take the surplus to be transferred from the Byrne transfers. He showed a complete lack of knowledge of how the voting system works and his panel didn't correct him so I presume they don't understand it either. It is complex but logical and fair.

muffler

This is a good guide to the PR system....if you can understand it????

It gets a little complex.

echo beach

retalivity wrote: »

Don't understand why Ming's surplus wasn't already distributed after he reached the quota though

MYOB wrote: »

Because at no point was anyone close enough for it to have an impact (its tiny), there were much larger elimination figures to distribute.

Ming's surplus is tiny,although things have got so tight it may have to be included, but Mairead McGuiness is sitting of a surplus of around 6,000 votes that haven't been brought into play.

L1011

echo beach wrote: »

Ming's surplus is tiny,although things have got so tight it may have to be included, but Mairead McGuiness is sitting of a surplus of around 6,000 votes that haven't been brought into play.

McGuinness's surplus was the 6th count - mostly went to Harkin. Had to be done as the gap between Byrne and Cope was less than the surplus

http://elections.independent.ie/2014/euro-election-2014/area/midlands-north-west

echo beach

MYOB wrote: »

McGuinness's surplus was the 6th count - mostly went to Harkin. Had to be done as the gap between Byrne and Cope was less than the surplus

http://elections.independent.ie/2014/euro-election-2014/area/midlands-north-west

Thanks. Must have dozed off for that one.:o
I was looking at the counts on the RTE website http://www.rte.ie/news/election2014/#/europe/R02 where it doesn't show them as having been taken from McGuinness and it doesn't keep track of the number of non-transferable votes.

Glenman

Pat the Cope concedes defeat. He has been an MEP in the Donegal area for a long number of years. Will the loss of his seat have a big negative impact on Donegal or did he have much influence when it came to Donegal in the first place?

ednwireland

cant day i'm sorry to see any of the old FF guard go its about time. didnt think that any of them did anything for up here (mary certainly didnt) mcdaid sprayed some lottery funding around but thats about it

L1011

Glenman wrote: »

Pat the Cope concedes defeat. He has been an MEP in the Donegal area for a long number of years. Will the loss of his seat have a big negative impact on Donegal or did he have much influence when it came to Donegal in the first place?

Whatever influence he had dwindled to near nothing the day he went back to Europe under single mandate and died when FF went out of office. One of 750 in Europe, nothing more.

opiniated

Never had any time for the man since I asked him how he was going to vote on an issue in Government in the 90s, and he gave an answer to every question except the one I asked - and I asked it three times!

I'm told he fought for the farmers and fishermen - however, since I'm neither, I can't say I noticed any particular representation of my concerns, either when in Government, or as an MEP.

Having said that - I cannot say I noticed any wonderful representation from any of the old guard politicians, of any party, in my constituency.

Maybe I'm not sufficiently informed, or don't look for enough "favours" - or maybe there has been a real lack of representation of the broad spectrum of people in Donegal for many years?