Interesting article in Irish Times - ‘fizz’ may be going out of Dublin market

The_Morrigan

gaius c wrote: »

Thank you for your well researched rebuttal full of convincing citations.

lolosaur wrote: »

Id show you my rebuttal but id get an infraction.

Cut it out please.

jmayo

lolosaur wrote: »

Im sorry but this is a load of nonscence. you have taken your own angle and stats and projected one big bendy lopsided arguement throwing this slanted conjecture of false information. some people may actuallly see this post and listen to you. thats the worst thing. you have put forward a pretty little post but it is all a nonscense.

Excuse me where is the conjecture ?
AIB admitted they were trying to writeoff the 3.5 billion repayment on preference shares by flogging the taxpayer normal shares when in fact the taxpayer already owns 99% odd of the bank.
Normal ordinary shares that are freaking worthless and nowhere near the value of the 3.5 billion.

Where is the bloody conjecture when it is openly available that they did not repay the taxpayer 280 million that was interest due on the 20 odd billion in taxpayer funded loans they got ?

Where is the false information ?

And while you are at it tell us how much of that 20 billion they have actually repaid to the taxpayer ?

I know I used the Indo as reference, but you know they do sometimes print fact and not always insider ar**licking opinions, which is probably the ones you prefer.
And if it wasn't fact then how come AIB haven't demanded a retraction and issues legal proceedings.

lolosaur wrote: »

Aib are going nowhere. PTSB are going nowhere.

Never a truer word was spoken, but I don't think it is the meaning you are trying to convey.

Those banks are dead ducks and the fact that one of them is unable and unwilling to meet their repayments, together with fact they are not been floated off says it all.
AIB will survive because it is large enough, but it's disastrous loan book is going to suck billions more into a black hole.

lolosaur wrote: »

I can assure you there will be no recapitalisation and there is no correlation whatsoever between cyprus and ireland.

I hope for all our sakes that is true, but why am I reminded of patrick neary. :rolleyes:

lolosaur wrote: »

shame on you for scaremongering with your crystal ball made of sellotape.

It beats yours which must be rose tinted and covered in manure.

lolosaur

jmayo wrote: »

Excuse me where is the conjecture ?
AIB admitted they were trying to writeoff the 3.5 billion repayment on preference shares by flogging the taxpayer normal shares when in fact the taxpayer already owns 99% odd of the bank.
Normal ordinary shares that are freaking worthless and nowhere near the value of the 3.5 billion.

Where is the bloody conjecture when it is openly available that they did not repay the taxpayer 280 million that was interest due on the 20 odd billion in taxpayer funded loans they got ?

Where is the false information ?

I know I used the Indo as reference, but you know they do sometimes print fact and not always insider ar**licking opinions, which is probably the ones you prefer.
And if it wasn't fact then how come AIB haven't demanded a retraction and issues legal proceedings.



Never a truer word was spoken, but I don't think it is the meaning you are trying to convey.

Those banks are dead ducks and the fact that one of them are unable and unwilling to meet their repayments, together with fact they are not been floated off says it all.



I hope for all our sakes that is true, but why am I reminded of patrick neary. :rolleyes:



It beats yours which must be rose tinted and covered in manure.

sure i can just as easily get a scissors made of glitter and cut out the pieces of articles that make the banks look favourable too.

The_Morrigan

lolosaur wrote: »

sure i can just as easily get a scissors made of glitter and cut out the pieces of articles that make the banks look favourable too.

lolosaur if you wish to dispute other posts then do so with some evidence. Soapboxing isn't allowed.

gmccar

Sleepy wrote: »

Annecdotally, I know of a few couples who have just given up on the prospect of being able to afford to buy in a decent area of Dublin and, on that basis, are now widening their search to meath and re-thinking their plans.

If those couples are representative of many more, it could certainly explain the reported drop in viewings?

We would be in that group! 18 months trying to buy in Glasnevin, getting out bid on everything we go for, every new property that goes up has a more and more ludicrous asking price. For example one particular area this time last year had 3 bed semi-d's for circa 350k, by Christmas they were hitting 380, now any new listing is 450-475. We're out, its pure madness for prices to be up 33% who can keep up.

lolosaur

The_Morrigan wrote: »

lolosaur if you wish to dispute other posts then do so with some evidence. Soapboxing isn't allowed.

I find it quite unfair that you question me with all the pontificating that goes on in these threads.

Im just amazed nobody has said dead cat bounce yet.

It's due to crop up soon.


Bankers!!! rabble rabble rabble .

lolosaur

gmccar wrote: »

We would be in that group! 18 months trying to buy in Glasnevin, getting out bid on everything we go for, every new property that goes up has a more and more ludicrous asking price. For example one particular area this time last year had 3 bed semi-d's for circa 350k, by Christmas they were hitting 380, now any new listing is 450-475. We're out, its pure madness for prices to be up 33% who can keep up.

You cant afford a house im afraid where you are wanting to buy.

18 months of hoping for nothing.

Try a little bit further out. re-evaluate your needs. stop chasing what you cant afford.

sad but honest.

Or overspend. buy a house you cant afford. ruin your marriage, your kids life, bicker and squable over debt. get laid off, have the embarrassment of telling your family and friends the bank took the house off you and ring an post to tell them to deliver your mail to the tent in the graveyard in glassnevin where you now live because you bought a house you couldnt afford.

Why may i ask has it taken you 18 months of searching in glasnevin before you came to the conclusuion you couldnt afford a house?

Theboinkmaster

lolosaur wrote: »

You cant afford a house im afraid where you are wanting to buy.

18 months of hoping for nothing.

Try a little bit further out. re-evaluate your needs. stop chasing what you cant afford.

sad but honest.

Or overspend. buy a house you cant afford. ruin your marriage, your kids life, bicker and squable over debt. get laid off, have the embarrassment of telling your family and friends the bank took the house off you and ring an post to tell them to deliver your mail to the tent in the graveyard in glassnevin where you now live because you bought a house you couldnt afford.

Why may i ask has it taken you 18 months of searching in glasnevin before you came to the conclusuion you couldnt afford a house?

I don't agree with any of that. Potentially there's a current cash bubble and prices will ease back to where they were at the start of 2013.

So you could suggest waiting and then you may be able to afford it. If prices go up 33% in a year they could just as easily fall 33% the next year.

gmccar

lolosaur wrote: »

You cant afford a house im afraid where you are wanting to buy.

18 months of hoping for nothing.

Try a little bit further out. re-evaluate your needs. stop chasing what you cant afford.

sad but honest.

Or overspend. buy a house you cant afford. ruin your marriage, your kids life, bicker and squable over debt. get laid off, have the embarrassment of telling your family and friends the bank took the house off you and ring an post to tell them to deliver your mail to the tent in the graveyard in glassnevin where you now live because you bought a house you couldnt afford.

Why may i ask has it taken you 18 months of searching in glasnevin before you came to the conclusuion you couldnt afford a house?

Ok so we are doing that, we're not idiots, we were able to afford the area up to 5/6 months ago. We haven't spent 18 months trying to buy unattainable houses.

We started searching for a house in January 2013 for 5 months we viewed houses every weekend and at the end of May went sale agreed, we were sale agreed for 6 months waiting for the vendor to sort out consent for sale and retrospective planning issues. The week these came through the vendor wanted more money for the property and put it back on the market. Two weeks later we had a baby, then it was December, no market, by February the market started going crazy.

So to your point yes, NOW, we can't afford the area and have been looking elsewhere but there are serious considerations to a move further out of Dublin such as increased commute times for both of us, crèches facilities and schools, cost of petrol and the required second car.

We refused to put ourselves into unmanageable debt hence why we end up pulling out of house after house as they bid into crazy territory, the bank would give us the mortgage but to what end to spend all our income on a mortgage and childcare so we end up working till we're 80 with no quality of life?

The point I was making is we are 2 less people darkening the door of open houses in the north Dublin suburbs supporting the point of the OP.

But thanks for the detailed outline of my future life should we decide to buy

woodseb

jmayo wrote: »

Excuse me where is the conjecture ?
AIB admitted they were trying to writeoff the 3.5 billion repayment on preference shares by flogging the taxpayer normal shares when in fact the taxpayer already owns 99% odd of the bank.
Normal ordinary shares that are freaking worthless and nowhere near the value of the 3.5 billion.

What is the net effect to the taxpayer of this action by AIB? show your workings.

lolosaur

gmccar wrote: »

Ok so we are doing that, we're not idiots, we were able to afford the area up to 5/6 months ago. We haven't spent 18 months trying to buy unattainable houses.

We started searching for a house in January 2013 for 5 months we viewed houses every weekend and at the end of May went sale agreed, we were sale agreed for 6 months waiting for the vendor to sort out consent for sale and retrospective planning issues. The week these came through the vendor wanted more money for the property and put it back on the market. Two weeks later we had a baby, then it was December, no market, by February the market started going crazy.

So to your point yes, NOW, we can't afford the area and have been looking elsewhere but there are serious considerations to a move further out of Dublin such as increased commute times for both of us, crèches facilities and schools, cost of petrol and the required second car.

We refused to put ourselves into unmanageable debt hence why we end up pulling out of house after house as they bid into crazy territory, the bank would give us the mortgage but to what end to spend all our income on a mortgage and childcare so we end up working till we're 80 with no quality of life?

The point I was making is we are 2 less people darkening the door of open houses in the north Dublin suburbs supporting the point of the OP.

But thanks for the detailed outline of my future life should we decide to buy

It just seems you came in at the wrong time. perhaps 3-4 months earlier would have been peak time but you missed the boat. that is really unfortunate but time to put away the notion of living there now and focus on areas you normally wouldnt. best of luck.

Bateman

I keep getting the impression that we missed the boat of lower prices (only looking since January, in similar areas to the above post), but I'd feel even more down in the dumps if we'd managed to get one hand on a place only to see it slip away due to delays and all that sort of stuff, horribly unlucky

lolosaur

Bateman wrote: »

I keep getting the impression that we missed the boat of lower prices (only looking since January, in similar areas to the above post), but I'd feel even more down in the dumps if we'd managed to get one hand on a place only to see it slip away due to delays and all that sort of stuff, horribly unlucky

It happens quite a bit.

Buying a house at the moment is the most stressful thing you will do in your life.

Why has the agent not called
will they accept
is the person bidding against us just the agent bumping up the price for himself
who are we up against and how many people want this place.
how much are they willing to go?
can we afford this place. (if you are asking that, you probably cant)
be prepared for alot of frustration, especially with the seller, the bank and the solicttor.
My advice would be get the best solicitor possible to get things moving if you do go sale agreed. waiting 6 months for contracts to be signed is infuriating. having it ripped away from you is soul destroying.
nut again, dont buy for the sake of it. buy what feels right, what you can afford andif that doesnt happen, wait it out. the right place will come along eventually and fall in your lap and in a year or 2 from now, you wont even fremember what all the fuss was about.

gmccar

Bateman wrote: »

I keep getting the impression that we missed the boat of lower prices (only looking since January, in similar areas to the above post), but I'd feel even more down in the dumps if we'd managed to get one hand on a place only to see it slip away due to delays and all that sort of stuff, horribly unlucky

Just imagine how down in the dumps you'd be if then your landlord of 3 years told you he was selling your current rental property and you were facing a 300 - 500 euro a month increase in rent for smaller crappier place miles out from where you've been living.

Ireland #livingthedream

Theboinkmaster

lolosaur wrote: »

but you missed the boat.

That's just your opinion and not fact, prices could drop again.

gaius c

lolosaur wrote: »

It happens quite a bit.

Buying a house at the moment is the most stressful thing you will do in your life.

Why has the agent not called
will they accept
is the person bidding against us just the agent bumping up the price for himself
who are we up against and how many people want this place.
how much are they willing to go?
can we afford this place. (if you are asking that, you probably cant)
be prepared for alot of frustration, especially with the seller, the bank and the solicttor.
My advice would be get the best solicitor possible to get things moving if you do go sale agreed. waiting 6 months for contracts to be signed is infuriating. having it ripped away from you is soul destroying.
nut again, dont buy for the sake of it. buy what feels right, what you can afford andif that doesnt happen, wait it out. the right place will come along eventually and fall in your lap and in a year or 2 from now, you wont even fremember what all the fuss was about.

You can also add "is it really for sale?" to the list too.

lolosaur

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

That's just your opinion and not fact, prices could drop again.

In Dublin? Maybe by 5k but not a decrease of 48% over night. the lower end properties are like gold dust. people are buying houses in crumlin, bluebell, Drimnagh that used to be buying in kimmage, rathfarnham etc...
it is like everyone took a step down the ladder.
The 3 bed semis then have been snapped up and prices have been racing up. so with no lower end supply and massive demand, those prices wont be coming down for years. there is no dead cat bounce, there is no release of properties from nama that will change that. there is nothing to indicate that house prices will decrease in dublin in the foreseeable future. if you wish to add to that the return to growth and the influx of jobs into dublin, the increasing population and the lack of credit available at present, you will be seeing prices pretty much skimming aroiund at the levels they are now for the next 5 years minimum. "the fizz" is bottled and sealed rather then slowly going flat and it has a decent shelf life.

If david mcwilliams said that you would all cream yourselves.

Bateman

You are probably in safe territory when you say that there are no indications that a price drop is going to happen, but the fundamentals don’t necessarily back up the view that they can’t drop, rather more that they won’t drop due to the familiar collection of vested interests that all want to keep prices up:
Central Government: want prices to stay high to collect more on property taxes and ease bank-related headaches
Banks: want prices to stay high to ease negative equity, help massage loan books
Home owners: self-explanatory
Estate Agents: self-explanatory
NAMA: self-explanatory

All of the above have both the vested interest and also the influence within the system. At the bottom of the pyramid is the FTB, with no influence, but a desire to see prices stabilise/drop. Is anyone else on that side? Almost no significant bloc that I can think of.

Theboinkmaster

lolosaur wrote: »

In Dublin? Maybe by 5k but not a decrease of 48% over night. the lower end properties are like gold dust. people are buying houses in crumlin, bluebell, Drimnagh that used to be buying in kimmage, rathfarnham etc...
it is like everyone took a step down the ladder.
The 3 bed semis then have been snapped up and prices have been racing up. so with no lower end supply and massive demand, those prices wont be coming down for years. there is no dead cat bounce, there is no release of properties from nama that will change that. there is nothing to indicate that house prices will decrease in dublin in the foreseeable future. if you wish to add to that the return to growth and the influx of jobs into dublin, the increasing population and the lack of credit available at present, you will be seeing prices pretty much skimming aroiund at the levels they are now for the next 5 years minimum. "the fizz" is bottled and sealed rather then slowly going flat and it has a decent shelf life.

If david mcwilliams said that you would all cream yourselves.

I don't expect a 48% drop and i don't know what is going to happen but the fundamentals do not support the past 12 months rise and seems to be driven by unusally high amount of cash buyers.

Once these dry up what will happen, when people need mortgages to buy and banks aren't lending....

Prices could drop 10% this year, despite vested interests... we just don't know.

makeorbrake

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Once these dry up what will happen, when people need mortgages to buy and banks aren't lending....

Presumably, that's what Noonan had in mind when coming up with this risk sharing guarantee - to make it more attractive for banks to take on FTB's...

Cuddlesworth

Bateman wrote: »

At the bottom of the pyramid is the FTB, with no influence, but a desire to see prices stabilise/drop.

They have the most influence, when they pull out of the market there is no market.

lolosaur

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I don't expect a 48% drop and i don't know what is going to happen but the fundamentals do not support the past 12 months rise and seems to be driven by unusally high amount of cash buyers.

Once these dry up what will happen, when people need mortgages to buy and banks aren't lending....

Prices could drop 10% this year, despite vested interests... we just don't know.

If there is a price drop of 10% this year in dublin, i will personally give you the difference.

It wont.

seamus

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

They have the most influence, when they pull out of the market there is no market.

Well there is, but it becomes an investor's market, which is far more unstable because investors move in and out of the market according to prevailing conditions whereas FTBs tend to create a constant inflow.
FTBs were removed from the market by the banks refusing to lend over the last few years, which resulted in the drops that we saw.

But I think Bateman's point is not so much to do with FTBs importance to the market, more their ability to exert influence. The Government, Banks & NAMA have direct power to influence prices and estate agents indirectly through the IAVI and other orgs can do too.

FTBs by contrast don't operate in unison and don't have any lobby groups so have zero ability to effect deliberate influence over the market.

lolosaur

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

They have the most influence, when they pull out of the market there is no market.

Of course there is. they dont just dissappear. FTB have to live somewhere. so they rent for the most part. and rents are huge so it has no bareing on anything if they keep their hands in their pockets. eventually rent will come to a point where they will have to buy rather then spunking money down a drain.

Even FTB that are living with their parents. it cant stay like that forever. something has to give. newtons law of motion and all that.

Barely Hedged

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I don't agree with any of that. Potentially there's a current cash bubble and prices will ease back to where they were at the start of 2013.

So you could suggest waiting and then you may be able to afford it. If prices go up 33% in a year they could just as easily fall 33% the next year.

In any property market cash buyers make up around 30% of all sales. I dont get this notion that theyre all going to disappear. Could it be that cash buyers are a good gauge of where the market should be?

Taken in context, prices have fallen between 50% - 60%. If prices went up 33% last year theyre still around 30% - 40% cheaper than 07/08.

The London property market fell 20% - 25% in 07/08 and that was considered a crash. If prices are 30% to 40% lower than the peak in Ireland some people call it a bubble or that it will fall 33% next year?

While i sympathise with the poster who was sale agreed and it was dragged out for 6 months resulting in a missed opportunity to live in Glasnevin, a lot of the stories i read in the papers from people commenting on increasing house prices and from my reading between the lines on the comments are all similar to the following: "we looked at property prices in D 2/4/6/6w 2 years ago and we thought to ourselves we can afford this. Now we cant afford it because the market is starting to normalise and its not fair". Well, tough sh1t mate

Theboinkmaster

Barely Hedged wrote: »

In any property market cash buyers make up around 30% of all sales. I dont get this notion that theyre all going to disappear. Could it be that cash buyers are a good gauge of where the market should be?

The issues in Dublin currently is the unsually high volume of cash buyers, i keep hearing it's 50-70%.

So if it's normally 30% then it's the 20-40% dropping off that could cause the demand to drop...

Bateman

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

i keep hearing it's 50-70%.

Anecdotally? I wish that were the case, but it surely can't be 70 and probably not even 50. If people have missed the boat the cash buyer is a great bogeyman to make yourself feel better. I hope you are right (if even about the demand being hit by a dip in cash buying rather than the 50-70 estimate) but I fear you are not.

lolosaur

it would be easy enough to prove this out wouldnt it?

get mortgages dished out by top 10 lending institutions.

See how many were given out and agreed vs how many houses were registered as being sold in the last year?

Theboinkmaster

Bateman wrote: »

Anecdotally? I wish that were the case, but it surely can't be 70 and probably not even 50. If people have missed the boat the cash buyer is a great bogeyman to make yourself feel better. I hope you are right (if even about the demand being hit by a dip in cash buying rather than the 50-70 estimate) but I fear you are not.

But sure don't the banks or CSO release mortgage drawdowns and i think i saw somewhere they were reducing in 2013/14.

So if sales going up and mortgages going down, the difference being cash buyers causing the increased sales. Im sure the information is available - 2013/14 sales compared to mortgage drawdowns 2013/14.

Barely Hedged

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

The issues in Dublin currently is the unsually high volume of cash buyers, i keep hearing it's 50-70%.

So if it's normally 30% then it's the 20-40% dropping off that could cause the demand to drop...

Demand dropping doesnt mean the price will drop. Theres more subtle factors at play than that. Prices will probably have found a natural level now as there was too large a skew to the lower prices and i dont think they'll fall by any large percent again. Im of the opinion that people who look at prices two years ago and compare them to now have missed the boat