Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

Iancar29

Met Office fax for tomorrow night .

Trough right to our south. Wexford coast the place to be to possibly see a nigh time light show heading that way.

ninebeanrows

NMM has quite intense band pushing north Friday AM

maquiladora

ECM vs EURO4 regarding Thursday night/Friday morning.

12Z ECM showing heavy rain extending along southern counties at 6am.



12Z EURO4 showing very heavy rain but confined more to the southwest at midnight, a bit earlier than the ECM. This then moves north as a band of heavy precip across the centre of the country by 4am.



I'd expect there should be some thundery activity mixed in with the rain, though how much is questionable. Instability doesn't look great for Ireland around this time apart from southeast and eastern coastal fringes, so they might be the places to keep an eye on.

maquiladora

An Estofex Level 1 for Thursday night / Friday morning just about clips the south coast. 50% risk area for southern counties.

Iancar29

As thought so , MCS scraps heading our way by Thursday night . NNM 18z gives some big flooding potential for all southern counties as it moves northwards .

Would love to be staying over in Hook lighthouse for the night !

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

As thought so , MCS scraps heading our way by Thursday night . NNM 18z gives some big flooding potential for all southern counties as it moves northwards .

Would love to be staying over in Hook lighthouse for the night !

18Z EURO4 still sticking with sending the most intense precip towards the southwest but I still think the best chance of anything electrified should be along southeast and east coast areas.

Hopefully not another case of watching sferics at sea fizzle out as it approaches land.

piuswal

A fascinating series of forecasts and interpretations. I wonder how Met Eireann should and will deliver their related forecasts for the next 24 to 72 hrs?

fleet_admiral

Im going down to the hook tomorrow night. Might see if I can go into Loftus hall again after hours to (hopefully) enjoy the thunder

RobertKK

Met Eireann have issued a weather advisory for downpours, thunderstorms, hail, local flooding and possible disruption.

vickers209

RobertKK wrote: »

Met Eireann have issued a weather advisory for downpours, thunderstorms, hail, local flooding and possible disruption.

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Warm and very humid weather with possible heavy showers, thunderstorms with hail which may lead to local flooding, disruption or possible damage tonight, Friday and Saturday.
Issued:
Thursday 17 July 2014 07:00
Valid:
Thursday 17 July 2014 21:00 to Saturday 19 July 2014 21:00

Iancar29

Don't have time to check the 06z as in work 11-6 today .

So heres a comparison with the 00z WRF and NMM .


Some strong DLS of up to 20m/s should keep updrafts vigorous enough for frequent lightning .


@fleet_admiral can i come tooooooooooo? :pac:

maquiladora

Surface CAPE looks really poor on the latest models for Ireland tonight/tomorrow morning, but if we are dealing with elevated storms then that doesn't really matter too much.

It will be interesting to see what happens or doesn't happen. We should have a good idea by this evening, by taking a look at whats happening on Sat24 to our south.

Heavy rain looks a certainty in places and hail up to 2cm could be possible. The big question will be how active will an MCS or remnants of an MSC still be as it reaches here, if it does reach here.

Whatever happens, it looks like it will have cleared most of the country by around 9am tomorrow with the separate risk of airmass storms popping up then tomorrow afternoon if skies clear up.

pad199207

Already like what's happening in Biscay on sat

maquiladora

HARMONIE showing very intense precip in places overnight.

dacogawa

pad199207 wrote: »

Already like what's happening in Biscay on sat

Yes, Biscay & just west of it is bubbling up now...
http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

maquiladora

06Z EURO4 disagrees with some of the other models and shows heavy precip only in the southwest with much smaller totals everywhere else.

It will be a case of radar/sat watching to see what goes where.



Speaking of which, things are already kicking off the northern BoB.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Larbre34

Video

It really annoys me when papers/stupid sites post a picture of someone at the beach in the water having a great time and saying "Hotter than hawaii" when they have absolutely no clue what the weather will really be like. There'll be 99% cloud cover. rain and some humidity so ahhh... calm down papers.

Redsunset

Please keep on topic.

maquiladora

So far the signs are good. We've seen stuff fizzle out before reaching land many times though, so only time will tell.

RobertKK

UK Met said tonight will have thunderstorms, also showed Saturday's thunderstorms in the UK moving north west into parts of Ireland.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

HARMONIE showing very intense precip in places overnight.

I have had my suspicions that that is the HARMONIE model Maq. It's output seems to be consistently similar to YR.NO's Hirlam output (which is still one of the top models anyway). It may well be the case that both HIRLAM & Harmonie has similar outputs but as far as I know, the only publicly available HARMONIE model data is on YR.NO, which is reserved exclusively for the Scandinavian region.

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I have had my suspicions that that is the HARMONIE model Maq. It's output seems to be consistently similar to YR.NO's Hirlam output (which is still one of the top models anyway). It may well be the case that both HIRLAM & Harmonie has similar outputs but as far as I know, the only publicly available HARMONIE model data is on YR.NO, which is reserved exclusively for the Scandinavian region.

I think you might be right, it's labelled as HARMONIE but the resolution doesn't look a whole lot higher than HIRLAM...

Could be an interesting night for the south coast later. Hard not to get excited watching Sat24 now.

DOCARCH

Do you think it might be worth keeping all talk re potential storms (...and hopefully actual storms) to one thread for the next 48 hours or so?

Getting a bit like the winter threads here today, jumping from one to another.

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

Do you think it might be worth keeping all talk re potential storms (...and hopefully actual storms) to one thread for the next 48 hours or so?

Getting a bit like the winter threads here today, jumping from one to another.

I thought this is the model/technical discussion thread. Better to keep "will it thunder in X" to more chat type threads maybe?

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

I thought this is the model/technical discussion thread. Better to keep "will it thunder in X" to more chat type threads maybe?

I suppose you are right, but the thread is for Summer 2014...I just thought it might be better to keep the...model/technical stuff and the 'that was the loudest thunder I have ever heard'/'no thunder here :mad:'...stuff together for this 'event', for the record, so people can look back.

That's assuming of course there will be an 'event' in the first place!

maquiladora

DOCARCH wrote: »

That's assuming of course there will be an 'event' in the first place!

Fingers crossed, at least for somewhere. Looks promising at the moment anyway. If the earlier hi-res models are correct then the convective activity should ramp up even higher sometime around 9pm off the south coast. We could be in for a real lightshow if that happens.

Starting to come into range of the short range model on Met.ie now. Showing initial stuff reaching the southwest coast around 10pm with heavier stuff to follow after midnight.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

Video

Starting to get intense!!!

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM showing the intense convective system currently south of Ireland reaching the southwest coast around 9-10pm with a broader area of intense precip reaching the south coast around midnight and pushing up over the country in the early morning.

maquiladora

Pretty impressive already, should continue to expand and intensify later this evening and tonight as it approaches the south coast - if the models are correct.



UK Met Office have put out a warning now for southwest England and Wales.