Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

elecktras weather bomb

Hi to all the usual suspects that contribute so much... and keep us all so well informed .been a lurker for few years now and have learned a lot from all of you. there does be great excitement when something unusual for us weatherwise comes round and its a pleasure to read the educated posts and witty too. I hope you don't mind if I stay lurking and learning for a while longer. M T , THANKS for giving up so much of your personal time to keep us informed its been our saviour many a time.

I hope you all get a decent light show over next few days. we have only returned from north france.. ....got a little thunder but it was like a fart in the wind. will miss the real show. murphy's law I guess. enjoy the chase.

many thanks
elecktras weather bomb

droidman123

Is dublin going to miss out?

maquiladora

Rain not too far from the extreme southwest coast now. 1-2 hours away.

12Z EURO4 shows the length of the south coast and southern counties inland getting heavy precip between around 3-6am, weakening further north.

maquiladora

ATD network detecting sferics quite close to the Cork coast now.

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

maquiladora

Radar returns showing rainfall rates over 100 mm/h off the south coast.

Trebor176

:eek: My God, that looks impressive. I'm still clinging on to the slight bit of hope that Dublin will get some action over the next day or two. The sun is setting, and I reckon tomorrow will be another sunny one

maquiladora

Estimated at 200 mm/hr off the south coast now.



Short range model showing heaviest precip is not expected to reach the south coast until after midnight.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

dacogawa

The lightning looks like it's getting more intense...

Oneiric 3

The shadows cast by the lowering sun on the southern edge of that trough earlier really showed up how deep (or high) those clouds bands are.

dacogawa

Just having a look at sat24, the last 3 runs (23:15, 23:30 & 23:45) it seems to be heading due north rather than north west...

Maybe I'm just wrong/hopeful

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&co=false&ra=false&li=true

maquiladora

Still about 3-4 hours away from the "main event" reaching the south coast if the latest run of the Met Eireann short range model is correct.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

maquiladora

Looking a bit further ahead, Estofex has pretty much zilch for Ireland tomorrow through to Saturday morning, only a slight 15% risk area.

maquiladora

A significant downgrade for prospects tonight from the latest run of the EURO4.
Now showing much lighter and scattered precip overnight tonight away from the far southwest compared to earlier runs.

MidMan25

maquiladora wrote: »

A significant downgrade for prospects tonight from the latest run of the EURO4.
Now showing much lighter and scattered precip overnight tonight away from the far southwest compared to earlier runs.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

A significant downgrade for prospects tonight from the latest run of the EURO4.
Now showing much lighter and scattered precip overnight tonight away from the far southwest compared to earlier runs.

Looks about right going by the current situation. It's looking very disappointing so far. Can't see any significant action developing tonight.

maquiladora

A rash of little cells popped up over Cork and West Waterford in the past 15-30 minutes.

maquiladora

Plenty of sferics detected tonight over the southwest. Now starting to see cells approaching the southeast coast, less than an hour away.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/sf_na_1v.gif?

Rougies

Looking way more promising now alright, and for the south east especially. Rosslare would be a good spot to be in for the next couple of hours

silverthorn100

Fork lightning here now in the Carrick on Suir area south tipperary

Lucy B

Very heavy rain in Kilworth cork. No thunder yet.

jimmynokia

Amazing show in gorey the last hour,never seen anything like it.

crowther15

Loads of prolonged showers and rumbles of thunder in Dublin since 6:30 this morning. Seems to have eased off now...

maquiladora

It looks like only a slight risk of thunder over the next couple of days, nothing noteworthy at all, but the good news is that the weather looks set to stay warm and settle down for at least a week, maybe longer.

Lucy B

Well that's good news!

Hal1

It's all good news man .

maquiladora

Estofex forecast for Saturday-Sunday. Eastern England looks interesting. Absolutely nothing for here though, not even a 15% risk area.

Larbre34

Havent been impressed with estofex' outcomes. Am ignoring it from now on.

Video

Larbre34 wrote: »

Havent been impressed with estofex' outcomes. Am ignoring it from now on.

Estofex are actually pretty accurate a lot of the times.

Iancar29

All parameters for England are in place for supercell storms later, the only thing to deal with Is the messy cloud cover this morning .

Can't post charts as I'm off to work shortly , shear , lapse rates and incredibly juicy air , all there!

Wish I could be at home for the day to watch the developments!

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

All parameters for England are in place for supercell storms later, the only thing to deal with Is the messy cloud cover this morning .

Can't post charts as I'm off to work shortly , shear , lapse rates and incredibly juicy air , all there!

Wish I could be at home for the day to watch the developments!

Yep looks very good on paper at least, they could see some really nice continental style storms over there later.

I wouldn't rule out a few airmass storms popping up here later, but nothing severe.