Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

sparrowcar

My dog is hiding between my legs.. Defo thunder here

Iancar29

Looks very like a low topped supercell!!!

TedR

I am listening to Dublin ATC, an aer lingus flight just went around after wind shear warning on approach through weather, its back on approach now, must be bumpy up there

Iancar29

TedR wrote: »

I am listening to Dublin ATC, an aer lingus flight just went around after wind shear warning on approach through weather, its back on approach now, must be bumpy up there

Yeah heard it too , decent cloud tops at the time making some strong enough outflow down to the surface.

https://scontent-a-ams.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10544353_10152587080411718_7602970347127028878_n.jpg?oh=a63883f7c39f099ef9676d9dac7289dc&oe=54493BB8

jimmynokia

Couple of strikes on the east coast.

fleet_admiral

Hail shower here in Arklow a few minutes ago

vickers209

Iancar29

Hi Res NMM showing some decent low level convergence and instability in Munster later this afternoon moving into S Leinster.

Any isolated cells that do fire will be in a favorably sheared environment of up to 20m/s . These cells could produce some intense rainfall amounts , some hail and even funnel clouds. Lightning activity would be low though.

One to keep an eye on folks... im in work 5-9 so probably miss the fun

Video

Iancar29

Video wrote: »

Thats not convective precipitation Video . Thats the rain being produced by the low pressure crawling over us later...

northgirl

looking like no action for cork city again is it?

MrFrisp

northgirl wrote: »

looking like no action for cork city again is it?

I see a bit of rain coming in towards the City from the West now, but it doesn't look like anything major.

Could be the start for something later though..

Fingers crossed.
.

hairybelly

Absolutely nothing going on in the past few weeks here in the South East. Havent heard a single clap of thunder, mostly the west that seems to be getting it

Video

hairybelly wrote: »

Absolutely nothing going on in the past few weeks here in the South East. Havent heard a single clap of thunder, mostly the west that seems to be getting it

didnt you have an MCS like 3 weeks ago overnight??

Video

Think I heard thunder in the cell that just went over us here but the rain was so torrential i can't be sure

Jpmarn

A squally shower just past over me near Limerick City. It was threatening to spawn a tornado at one stage. I am surprised that there isn't any thunder and lightening locally and island wide.

Video

what type of cloud is this

Supercell

Mostly stratus with some stratocumulus in the background.

Irelandcool

Just checked the expert charts on weatheronline and looked at the GFS model of the CAPE and something might stir up for at least the south east on tuesday and lift seems to be there, but again this could change

Video

Irelandcool wrote: »

Just checked the expert charts on weatheronline and looked at the GFS model of the CAPE and something might stir up for at least the south east on tuesday and lift seems to be there, but again this could change

Id wait for the 00z and 06z runs, find the 18 and 12z to be unreliable sometimes

Mac_

Thunder on and off here in Co Antrim for past couple of hours. Some REALLY intense downpours.

rilz

Mac_ wrote: »

Thunder on and off here in Co Antrim for past couple of hours. Some REALLY intense downpours.

Aye same here on east coast. Thunder rattling away. Landslide up near Carnlough, road shut off.

Video

Any of the experts care to analyse tomorrows threat?, -6 LI and decent cape locally

maquiladora

Video wrote: »

Any of the experts care to analyse tomorrows threat?, -6 LI and decent cape locally

Heavy showers, several turning thundery. Midlands, Eastern & Northern areas most as risk. A few probably turning fairly intense. Met Office has a rain warning for NI. It looks like the heaviest showers will be south of the border though.

Kermit.de.frog

I'd tend to disagree slightly. Looks like a convergence zone establishing itself just off the east coast tomorrow evening and night. Could be some torrential falls of rain in the northeast of Ulster.

Other than that later tomorrow I agree the east and midlands is most at risk at the moment.

It's one of those situations where the threat areas can be a movable feast though.

Iancar29

There seems to be 2 rounds of risks of thunderstorms , of which some could be intense.

1. Valid from 0000hrs to 0600hrs

Over night tonight there seems to be a small amount of unstable air passing from Cork - Louth Direction . If anything can go up it will be in a decently sheared environment to be substain itself and be heavy in places , the lack of strong instability though may not bring frequent lightning , but if the cloud tops can tap high up into colder air it could be a different story.






2. Valid from 1700hrs to 2200hrs

A trough will pass over the country tomorrow late afternoon bringing a fairly widespread risk of thunderstorms. Any cells that do fire will be in a locally well sheared environment to produce possibly organised cells . Some hail , CGs and funnels , perhaps a weak torando is likely.
A notable area for the risk seems to currently lie from SW munster towards N. Leinster.





Id expect a 50% risk area from estofex for most of Ireland for tomorrow.

jimmynokia

Iancar29 wrote: »

There seems to be 2 rounds of risks of thunderstorms , of which some could be intense.

1. Valid from 0000hrs to 0600hrs

Over night tonight there seems to be a small amount of unstable air passing from Cork - Louth Direction . If anything can go up it will be in a decently sheared environment to be substain itself and be heavy in places , the lack of strong instability though may not bring frequent lightning , but if the cloud tops can tap high up into colder air it could be a different story.






2. Valid from 1700hrs to 2200hrs

A trough will pass over the country tomorrow late afternoon bringing a fairly widespread risk of thunderstorms. Any cells that do fire will be in a locally well sheared environment to produce possibly organised cells . Some hail , CGs and funnels , perhaps a weak torando is likely.
A notable area for the risk seems to currently lie from SW munster towards N. Leinster.





Id expect a 50% risk area from estofex for most of Ireland for tomorrow.

.
Camera at the ready so.

chris2007

Video

that came out early

Iancar29

lol , i didnt even expect it to be out till 11pm at least , swear i didnt even look at it !