Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15

maquiladora

Latest WRF-NMM still showing convective showers coming across the Irish Sea from Wales into the southeast/south later tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow. If they are electrified then could prove a nice light show for those on the coasts.

Estofex isn't too bullish but does put that area under a slight risk.

sunbabe08

Was expecting sparks this afternoon. Again my hopes have been dashed :-(

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

Was expecting sparks this afternoon. Again my hopes have been dashed :-(

I think during the night is the best chance. Still a fairly slim chance, but we'll see.

Video

maquiladora wrote: »

I think during the night is the best chance. Still a fairly slim chance, but we'll see.

what about tomorrow afternoon though? -5 LI with a lot of cape and -7 to -8 LI in parts of UK... i assumed that would mean we would get a lot of activity or do we need some sort of cold front or something passing to interact with the instability?

maquiladora

Video wrote: »

what about tomorrow afternoon though? -5 LI with a lot of cape and -7 to -8 LI in parts of UK... i assumed that would mean we would get a lot of activity or do we need some sort of cold front or something passing to interact with the instability?

Just talking about today for Cork.

Tomorrow afternoon has good potential.

DOCARCH

Worth keeping an eye on a couple of specks of showers that have developed in the last hour just off the mid to north Wales coast (...just off Bardsey Island...to be precise!).

Edit: Move along there now...nothing to see! Nothing really exciting happened with those showers...I thought they might pep up into something exciting.

sunbabe08

What a waste of lightening off out in the Atlantic sea. Pfft

Video

sunbabe08 wrote: »

What a waste of lightening off out in the Atlantic sea. Pfft

That area has been hit a few thousand times today i'd say, it's been going since 11am

pad199207

Estofex level 1 for southern counties

vickers209

level 1 for southern half of country

A level 1 was issued for parts of UK and S-Ireland mainly for excessive rain and large hail.

Further north, over S-UK, forecast soundings indicate less CAPE (1-1.5 kJ/kg), which is still noteworthy for this region. Persistent LL convergence signals, PWs in excess of 20 mm, weak upper divergence and storm motions of 5 kt point to an augmented risk for slow moving multicells with isolated large hail and excessive rain. High resolved models indicate selective amounts of 50 mm/3h, which would bring a flash flood threat to those areas. This risk also extends to S-Ireland and shifts north during the night, conform to the northbound advection of the unstable air.

lolie

Some sparks heading for the Southeast.
Will they survive the journey??

maquiladora

The activity off the southeast coast is what I was talking about earlier, should move into southeast and southern counties overnight.

New cells popping up on the Welsh coast now too.

lolie

Let's hope they don't die out like the showers docarch mentioned earlier.

maquiladora

Strikes just off the Wexford coast now. Would be a nice lightshow for anyone down there looking out to sea.

sunbabe08

it's getting closer my hopes are going up again

Video

was drifting off and heard rumbles from a distance there.. cells are very active for this time of morning

Super-Rush

I've waited long enough.

Rain seems to be dissipating as it comes over land.

sunbabe08

looks like west cork is going to get the action. AGAIN

mel.b

Thunder and lightning here in Clare atm...very strange thunder though - seems subduded and not very long or rumbly! Wasn't sure it was thunder until i saw the lightning.

redsteveireland

mel.b wrote: »

Thunder and lightning here in Clare atm...very strange thunder though - seems subduded and not very long or rumbly! Wasn't sure it was thunder until i saw the lightning.

Just drove into Galway and could see flashes but very hard to figure out which direction they were coming from.

RoisinD

Was woken by the dog who hates lightning. Lots of flashes but no thunder. Was a bit surreal.

NWClare

jprboy

Thunder and lightening in North Tipp just now and some lightning earlier too.

Just after being a torrential downpour and there's been heavy rain on and off for at the last 90 minutes at least.

Wasn't expecting any precip so early here today....

ThaitaniumM

Rumbles around Limerick/Clare now

Strangegravy

Am I hearing thunder here, East Limerick? I think i am...

Strangegravy

mel.b wrote: »

Thunder and lightning here in Clare atm...very strange thunder though - seems subduded and not very long or rumbly! Wasn't sure it was thunder until i saw the lightning.

That's what I thought, seemed like neighbours bringing in their wheelie bins, but then I realised..

"Wait a sec, that's a LOT of wheelie bins....."

Iancar29

Strangegravy wrote: »

That's what I thought, seemed like neighbours bringing in their wheelie bins, but then I realised..

"Wait a sec, that's a LOT of wheelie bins....."

Its because they are elevated storms and not surface based ones.

chris2007

What's the chances of Dublin seeing some storms today?

Iancar29

chris2007 wrote: »

What's the chances of Dublin seeing some storms today?

Low ,I think everything will be too far south or inland for us .

Video

Looks like 9pm here instead of AM right now lol

Strangegravy

Low rumbles here again now, East Limerick. Just after some serious rain. Plants needed it!