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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Summer/Autumn/Winter 2014-15
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Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.
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vickers209 wrote: »Estofex have a level 3 for france tomorrow for large hail
Level one for uk on phone so cant post pict
Yeah I'm not surprised. CAPE and LI figures are similar to what you'd see in severe setups in the US let alone Europe.
... France towards BENELUX and NW Germany ...
Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.
Latest model showing LI of up to -15 which is insane (-9 is considered extremely unstable) and a wide area of off the charts CAPE <4200 J/kg. I'm surprised Iancar isn't going over!
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LI of -16. I'm pretty sure thats up there with the lowest LI ever recorded in the United States, let alone Europe. Of course it's still just a model prediction, not recorded yet. Pretty cool to see from a weather nerd point of view :P Could be really severe storms there later, hopefully nothing too dangerous.
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