Latest Irish Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll

Banjo String

According to the latest Irish Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll, the public rates the party's in the following order (in terms of popularity) :

Independents/others 27%
SF 26%
FF 20%
FG 20%
Lab 5%
Greens 2%

Not great looking for the coalition tbh, considering the popularity they enjoyed in the polls 2011.

The resignation of Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore as Labour leader, a commitment to resolve the medical card crisis and the expectation of changes in the reshuffle have done nothing to drag the Coalition out of its slump. Worryingly for the government parties, the low support levels of the local and European elections continue.

There's no sign the voters have got the anger out of their system and would view a general election in a different light.

Sinn Fein and the Independents would potentially get a majority of seats if there was a snap general election.

Sinn Fein, in particular, has continued to build on the momentum gained in the local and European elections, with the party's support levels rising to 26pc.

Although the party's vote in the local elections was well short of its opinion poll showing, the survey suggests it would still make substantial gains in its number of TDs.

Fianna Fail's recovery is steady but unspectacular while Fine Gael and the Labour Party continue to languish with low levels of support.

Worse yet is the status of the Government's performance.

Satisfaction with the Government has fallen back to its lowest level so far with just one in six people happy with the Coalition's performance.

Nearly four in five are unhappy with the way the Government is running the country.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coalition-as-unpopular-as-last-days-of-cowen-government-30336147.html

So essentially, SF as it stands are the most popular party in the state.

Manach

Hopefully this will then see a change in how the Government regard SF; not as party that can be undermined by continuous jabs/jibes at its past but instead hold a proper discussion on how SF's policies would be actually implemented in reality and the effects of such (bad/good depending on one's PoV). One can hope.

Muahahaha

Manach wrote: »

Hopefully this will then see a change in how the Government regard SF; not as party that can be undermined by continuous jabs/jibes at its past but instead hold a proper discussion on how SF's policies would be actually implemented in reality and the effects of such (bad/good depending on one's PoV). One can hope.

I hope so too. But even anytime I've seen debates on tv between a SF representative and others from FG all we seem to get is the FG guy saying that SF economic policy is fairyland economics without explaining why. They just keep throwing rhetoric around, even on the economy they are losing the debate by behaving like children during it.

comongethappy

Yeah, the SF connundrum has been discussed at length here & in After Hours.

much more so than the media seem to bother.

SF seem to poll far above what they achieve at the ballot box.

FG's hopes now rest on the next budget.

Idbatterim

here we go page 12 Labours 2012, election manifesto, extend the 3% GDP deficit target to 2016. That line Labour about every little hurts and wanting to balance out FG, anyone who took that **** in and voted for them, well congratulations on the country having dodged any chance of reform and kicked this austerity can down the road far longer than needed be, only another lost 5 years I suppose :rolleyes: Its lose lose as a party, try to get things in line, i.e. sort out the finances you lose votes, be reckless give the people what they want, boom goes to bust, you get voted out. They should make up their mind what they want, probably someone else to pay...

http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/labour_election_manifesto_2011.pdf

bluefinger

does this mean sinn fein have gained 10 percent since the elections? when they received 16ish percent. if so the poll is a joke.

comongethappy

Idbatterim wrote: »

here we go page 12 Labours 2012, election manifesto, extend the 3% GDP deficit target to 2016. That line Labour about every little hurts and wanting to balance out FG, anyone who took that **** in and voted for them, well congratulations on the country having dodged any chance of reform and kicked this austerity can down the road far longer than needed be, only another lost 5 years I suppose :rolleyes: Its lose lose as a party, try to get things in line, i.e. sort out the finances you lose votes, be reckless give the people what they want, boom goes to bust, you get voted out. They should make up their mind what they want, probably someone else to pay...

http://www.labour.ie/download/pdf/labour_election_manifesto_2011.pdf

its hard to be popular & do the right thing at the same time.
No one likes the guy who has to say 'no'.

I think the 5% number is a bit hard on Labour.
Id say it will be closer to 8%-10% by the time we reach May 16'.
As it stands though they will struggle to be considered for coalition.
Id say if they were offered 15 seats in the next parliament right now, they would take it.

comongethappy

bluefinger wrote: »

does this mean sinn fein have gained 10 percent since the elections? when they received 16ish percent. if so the poll is a joke.

its similar to the polls pre the recent election.
The numbers look very soft alright.

a few % you can understand, but over representating by near 10% looks weird.

jobeenfitz

comongethappy wrote: »

its hard to be popular & do the right thing at the same time.
No one likes the guy who has to say 'no'.

I think the 5% number is a bit hard on Labour.
Id say it will be closer to 8%-10% by the time we reach May 16'.
As it stands though they will struggle to be considered for coalition.
Id say if they were offered 15 seats in the next parliament right now, they would take it.

Also Possible that the 5% could be 2 or 3 percent in 2016, who knows.

comongethappy

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Also Possible that the 5% could be 2 or 3 percent in 2016, who knows.

absolutely.

at general election turnout rates though, Id say they will improve.

jobeenfitz

We have more cuts coming in next budget, even if less than expected. With the Water charges to kick in in January 2015 I cant see things getting much better for either government party. Maybe they will buy our votes in the final year and budget? A well established pattern in this little country.

comongethappy

jobeenfitz wrote: »

We have more cuts coming in next budget, even if less than expected. With the Water charges to kick in in January 2015 I cant see things getting much better for either government party. Maybe they will buy our votes in the final year and budget? A well established pattern in this little country.

That is exactly their plan.

they hoped for a 1bn surplus this year & 5bn surplus next year.

Itprobably wont be as that rosy, however there will be at least 2-3billion to auction off.

if they target income taxes & keep welfare in check they could pull it off.

raymon

I am calling shennanigans on this poll and its associated "journalism"

"Fianna Fail's recovery is steady but unspectacular" says Sheehan . This is not true.

This is more Fianna Fail newsletter ( Sunday Independent) spin.
This is in fact a drop for Fianna Fail if you compare like with like (ie the last MB poll). In fact with a margin of error of 3% FF still could be on 17%

The constant whinge politics of the depressing Michael Martin has weakened FF and strengthened Sinn Fein

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-labour-and-fianna-fail-all-down-in-dramatic-sunday-independent-millwardbrown-opinion-poll-30053555.html

michael999999

raymon wrote: »

I am calling shennanigans on this poll and its associated "journalism"

"Fianna Fail's recovery is steady but unspectacular" says Sheehan . This is not true.

This is more Fianna Fail newsletter ( Sunday Independent) spin.
This is in fact a drop for Fianna Fail if you compare like with like (ie the last MB poll). In fact with a margin of error of 3% FF still could be on 17%

The constant whinge politics of the depressing Michael Martin has weakened FF and strengthened Sinn Fein

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-labour-and-fianna-fail-all-down-in-dramatic-sunday-independent-millwardbrown-opinion-poll-30053555.html

In fairness to poor old Fionann Sheehan, he has to write whatever DOB tells him to write. And just be glad he has a job. I doubt he would get a job at any other paper.

And there's the fact he's wife is a fianna fail senator!

Jolly Red Giant

comongethappy wrote: »

I think the 5% number is a bit hard on Labour.
Id say it will be closer to 8%-10% by the time we reach May 16'.
As it stands though they will struggle to be considered for coalition.
Id say if they were offered 15 seats in the next parliament right now, they would take it.

Given the upcoming austerity budget it is likely that the LP support will further drop. The LP could be all but wiped out at the next election. I expect most of the older LP reps will retire and most of the younger ones will be hammered in the election. If I had to make a prediction I would say that Howlin is the most likely to keep his seat but even he is not close to being guaranteed.

raymon

michael999999 wrote: »

In fairness to poor old Fionann Sheehan, he has to write whatever DOB tells him to write. And just be glad he has a job. I doubt he would get a job at any other paper.

And there's the fact he's wife is a fianna fail senator!

I agree but it is strange to see Sheehan take the Fianna Fail line. He normally is more balanced than to be fabricating headlines out or thin air like the rest of the FF crew in there.

TheCitizen

comongethappy wrote: »

its hard to be popular & do the right thing at the same time.
No one likes the guy who has to say 'no'.

I think the 5% number is a bit hard on Labour.
Id say it will be closer to 8%-10% by the time we reach May 16'.
As it stands though they will struggle to be considered for coalition.
Id say if they were offered 15 seats in the next parliament right now, they would take it.

Wont last that long, reckon there will be a general election in 2015.

comongethappy

TheCitizen wrote: »

Wont last that long, reckon there will be a general election in 2015.

Why?

TheCitizen

comongethappy wrote: »

Why?

Labour will have nothing left to lose, they will implode. They'll last as long as they can and the government will fall in 2015, I reckon.

comongethappy

TheCitizen wrote: »

Labour will have nothing left to lose, they will implode. They'll last as long as they can and the government will fall in 2015, I reckon.

But why?

They hold a massive majority & the economy is slowly on the upswing after a tough fisical readjustment.

Why would the government suddenly collapse when there is no need to?

TheCitizen

comongethappy wrote: »

But why?

They hold a massive majority & the economy is slowly on the upswing after a tough fisical readjustment.

Why would the government suddenly collapse when there is no need to?

They are not going to suddenly collapse, if they suddenly collapsed, Labour would pull out straight away. I reckon they could collapse over the next 12 to 18 months in Spring or Autumn 2015, because Labour will have nothing left to lose and what's left of them may take the decision to pull out on some decision or other to try to keep a few seats. The front bench will retire and whoever wants to take over the future direction of the Party may as well start rebuilding in post a 2015 general election as opposed to wait around 'till post an election in 2016. It'll be a personality driven pull out from Labour, but could fall on some issue that crops up, a last straw that breaks the camels back kind of thing.

the groutch

comongethappy wrote: »

Why?

with Sinn Fein seemingly being their biggest opposition now, having an election so close to the 100th anniversary of the 1916 rising might not be such a good idea.

charlie14

raymon wrote: »

I am calling shennanigans on this poll and its associated "journalism"

"Fianna Fail's recovery is steady but unspectacular" says Sheehan . This is not true.

This is more Fianna Fail newsletter ( Sunday Independent) spin.
This is in fact a drop for Fianna Fail if you compare like with like (ie the last MB poll). In fact with a margin of error of 3% FF still could be on 17%

The constant whinge politics of the depressing Michael Martin has weakened FF and strengthened Sinn Fein

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-labour-and-fianna-fail-all-down-in-dramatic-sunday-independent-millwardbrown-opinion-poll-30053555.html

Following that logic re error of 3%, wouldn`t that also leave FG on 17% and Labour on 2% .

Godge

Banjo String wrote: »

According to the latest Irish Independent/Millward Brown opinion poll, the public rates the party's in the following order (in terms of popularity) :

Independents/others 27%
SF 26%
FF 20%
FG 20%
Lab 5%
Greens 2%

Not great looking for the coalition tbh, considering the popularity they enjoyed in the polls 2011.



http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coalition-as-unpopular-as-last-days-of-cowen-government-30336147.html

So essentially, SF as it stands are the most popular party in the state.

Had forgotten about this poll conducted last June. How does it compare to the latest poll?


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

FF - 21% +1
FG - 19% -1
SF - 22% -4
Oth - 32% +3
Lab - 6% +1

It would seem that the only change of significance since June has been a move away from Sinn Fein to Others/Independents. So Irish Water, the budget, protests, Mairia Cahill etc. have only made one change, a drop in support for Sinn Fein.


Interesting.

IrishProd

Godge wrote: »

Had forgotten about this poll conducted last June. How does it compare to the latest poll?


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

FF - 21% +1
FG - 19% -1
SF - 22% -4
Oth - 32% +3
Lab - 6% +1

It would seem that the only change of significance since June has been a move away from Sinn Fein to Others/Independents. So Irish Water, the budget, protests, Mairia Cahill etc. have only made one change, a drop in support for Sinn Fein.


Interesting.

Two completely different polls with two completely different perimeters, what was the poll results in the last Irish times poll, that is the one that matters here as they are conducted the same way.

According to the poll you mentioned, Sinn Féin is the most popular political party in the state anyway and Gerry Adams is the most popular leader. Bit hard for you to swallow I imagine.

It would seem that the only change of significance since June has been a move away from Sinn Fein to Others/Independents.

The previous poll you mentioned was in November which isn't June, so not only do the results of that poll contradict everything you mentioned above, you also managed to contradict yourself using. /clap

The only significant thing about any of this is what a stupid post you just made, you really are clutching at straws, all you do is post about SF ignoring the rest of the parties and nothing else, it really is quite embarrassing, nothing really interesting about any of it to be honest.

Godge

IrishProd wrote: »

Two completely different polls with two completely different perimeters, what was the poll results in the last Irish times poll, that is the one that matters here as they are conducted the same way.

According to the poll you mentioned, Sinn Féin is the most popular political party in the state anyway and Gerry Adams is the most popular leader. Bit hard for you to swallow I imagine.



The previous poll you mentioned was in November which isn't June, so not only do the results of that poll contradict everything you mentioned above, you also managed to contradict yourself using. /clap

The only significant thing about any of this is what a stupid post you just made, you really are clutching at straws, all you do is post about SF ignoring the rest of the parties and nothing else, it really is quite embarrassing, nothing really interesting about any of it to be honest.

Eh, the poll in the OP was in June, the poll in my link was the end of November, published last week, hence my comparison.

I have a long history of posting on a lot of subjects including on many other parties but on SF, I have only posted a lot since the Mairia Cahill scandal. It has been quite an education to see the way their supporters turn on anyone who raises a question about them.

IrishProd

Godge wrote: »

Eh, the poll in the OP was in June, the poll in my link was the end of November, published last week, hence my comparison.

I have a long history of posting on a lot of subjects including on many other parties but on SF, I have only posted a lot since the Mairia Cahill scandal. It has been quite an education to see the way their supporters turn on anyone who raises a question about them.

Never said I was a supporter, congrats on the assumptions.

oscarBravo

IrishProd wrote: »

Never said I was a supporter, congrats on the assumptions.

He didn't say you were. What was that about assumptions?

Godge

oscarBravo wrote: »

He didn't say you were. What was that about assumptions?

Exactly. A lot of people around here don't seem to be able to distinguish nuances in posting.

Muahahaha

Godge wrote: »

Had forgotten about this poll conducted last June. How does it compare to the latest poll?


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

FF - 21% +1
FG - 19% -1
SF - 22% -4
Oth - 32% +3
Lab - 6% +1

It would seem that the only change of significance since June has been a move away from Sinn Fein to Others/Independents. So Irish Water, the budget, protests, Mairia Cahill etc. have only made one change, a drop in support for Sinn Fein.


Interesting.

The margin of error is usually +/-3% so not sure how much you can tell by that poll really. Nonetheless it is the overall trend that is worrying for the government. The establishment parties of FF/FG and Labour are now polling a total of 46%. Just a few short years ago those three parties would have shared 70%-80% of the national vote so I think its fair to say that things have shifted significantly as regards the political landscape.

Isn't your party the Greens Godge? Are they so insignificant now that pollsters bunch them under 'Others'?

IrishProd

Godge wrote: »

It has been quite an education to see the way their supporters turn on anyone who raises a question about them.

So that wasn't directed at me? Sure it wasn't.

oscarBravo wrote: »

He didn't say you were. What was that about assumptions?

Are you blind or just daft?

Dan_Solo

IrishProd wrote: »

Are you blind or just daft?

Careful there, you're supposed to say something like "I find some people are just blind or daft". ;-)

raymon

charlie14 wrote: »

Following that logic re error of 3%, wouldn`t that also leave FG on 17% and Labour on 2% .

Charlie I'm not sure why you bumped a thread from 6 months ago .

Was it to show a drop in the Sinn Fein vote .

Green Fish

Where is that chancer Eamonn Gilmore these days? Has he retired already?

michael999999

Green Fish wrote: »

Where is that chancer Eamonn Gilmore these days? Has he retired already?

I don't know, but hopefully the rest of the labour liars will be joining him there shortly!

charlie14

raymon wrote: »

Charlie I'm not sure why you bumped a thread from 6 months ago .

Was it to show a drop in the Sinn Fein vote .

Not really. I was browsing the only three pages in this thread and felt your use of the 3% margin of error, for the sake of fairnes and clarity, should be applied to all party`s percentage in that poll.

hatrickpatrick

Can we close this thread and start a new one for the latest poll, or else amend the first post so that the latest figures are displayed alongside the older ones?

Godge

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Can we close this thread and start a new one for the latest poll, or else amend the first post so that the latest figures are displayed alongside the older ones?

Why?

When you read the hysteria about recent polls and that the Government is now in imminent danger of collapse because of the polls, it is interesting to go back and pick out a poll from four or five months ago and find little has changed.

Closing a thread is closing a debate, you wouldn't want that, would you?

Godge

Muahahaha wrote: »

The margin of error is usually +/-3% so not sure how much you can tell by that poll really. Nonetheless it is the overall trend that is worrying for the government. The establishment parties of FF/FG and Labour are now polling a total of 46%. Just a few short years ago those three parties would have shared 70%-80% of the national vote so I think its fair to say that things have shifted significantly as regards the political landscape.

Isn't your party the Greens Godge? Are they so insignificant now that pollsters bunch them under 'Others'?

The margin of error is there in every poll so I am not sure what point you are making about that.

As for the establishment parties, the big change was 2010 with a collapse of 20% in FF's rating. It went to FG and Labour first before bouncing around to others and SF. Where it will settle for the general election is interesting.

I don't have a party. I have voted Labour, FG, Green, PD, FF and Independent in the past. Probably voted for Labour and PD more often than Green who I have voted for more often than FG. Don't think I ever voted for the Workers Party or Democratic Left but I can't remember every election.

Yes, if there is an election tomorrow I will vote Green, I have voted for them before, most recently in the local elections, but that is no guarantee I will vote for them in March 2016 or even after a four-week election campaign.

hatrickpatrick

Godge wrote: »

Why?

When you read the hysteria about recent polls and that the Government is now in imminent danger of collapse because of the polls, it is interesting to go back and pick out a poll from four or five months ago and find little has changed.

Closing a thread is closing a debate, you wouldn't want that, would you?

I think you know pretty well that that wasn't my intention, merely that I clicked on the thread and at first glance assumed I was reading the recent figures, thought "Hmmm, not what I thought".

Would you be averse to adding the new figures to the OP, after the ones already posted, for easy reference?

Godge

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I think you know pretty well that that wasn't my intention, merely that I clicked on the thread and at first glance assumed I was reading the recent figures, thought "Hmmm, not what I thought".

Would you be averse to adding the new figures to the OP, after the ones already posted, for easy reference?

I did that in this post where I compared the two polls.

Godge wrote: »

Had forgotten about this poll conducted last June. How does it compare to the latest poll?


http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

FF - 21% +1
FG - 19% -1
SF - 22% -4
Oth - 32% +3
Lab - 6% +1

It would seem that the only change of significance since June has been a move away from Sinn Fein to Others/Independents. So Irish Water, the budget, protests, Mairia Cahill etc. have only made one change, a drop in support for Sinn Fein.


Interesting.

hatrickpatrick

Godge wrote: »

I did that in this post where I compared the two polls.

Precisely, I'm merely suggesting that this should be in the OP for handy access.

Godge

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Precisely, I'm merely suggesting that this should be in the OP for handy access.

Would we then have to update the OP every time a new poll comes out? And also update every thread with the same?

Surely the way I did it was better. If you want to talk about an older poll and its comparison to a more recent one, you do it within the post.

hatrickpatrick

Godge wrote: »

Would we then have to update the OP every time a new poll comes out? And also update every thread with the same?

Surely the way I did it was better. If you want to talk about an older poll and its comparison to a more recent one, you do it within the post.

If the thread title is "latest poll results", obviously the OP should reflect the latest poll results. Surely this isn't so objectionable or worth arguing over?