NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

skippymac6

Roddy White any time TD scorer and Falcons +3.5.

The falcons have been truly awful but with Clavin out again, and the fact that it's such a must win game for them, I'm hoping they can keep it close. I'm hoping that the Lions have one eye on the bye week and that the falcons desperation gets them over the line, or at least within a field goal!!

Billy86

Corey Fuller over 32.5 receiving yards and Jeremy Ross over 25.5 both at 5/6, really low bombers with Calvin Johnson out.

JaMarcusHustle

Billy86 wrote: »

Corey Fuller over 32.5 receiving yards and Jeremy Ross over 25.5 both at 5/6, really low bombers with Calvin Johnson out.

43 and 31 respectively. Good shout Bill!

Anyone know if it's possible to do teasers on Bet365? I can never combine bets from the same game.

matthew8

+6.53 now with 29 units staked.

JaMarcusHustle

Going big (by my standards, I never bet large amounts) on the Pack tonight.

upandcumming

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Going big (by my standards, I never bet large amounts) on the Pack tonight.

I'm doing nothing... have a nine team accum waiting on the Packers and the Cowboys!

JONJO THE MISER

Don't be scared of the high number guys, this game goes over 55.
Best bet of the week.
My max bet of 5pts on over 55 at 1.961.

matthew8

Getting an early one in for next week. Really like the Bengals as a home team and think they will murder the Jaguars so I've put 1 unit on them -13 2.12. Also think Chargers (+2.5) should be favourites @ Miami and an argument to be made also that the Pats (+3) should be faves, but waiting for Pinnacle to release win odds. Chiefs -9.5 1.95 1 unit too. 15 just enough to put me off the Hawks right now.

kryogen

Penalties killed the Pack there, stupid ones.

matthew8

Cowboys -9.5 1 unit 2.02.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Getting an early one in for next week. Really like the Bengals as a home team and think they will murder the Jaguars so I've put 1 unit on them -13 2.12. Also think Chargers (+2.5) should be favourites @ Miami and an argument to be made also that the Pats (+3) should be faves, but waiting for Pinnacle to release win odds. Chiefs -9.5 1.95 1 unit too. 15 just enough to put me off the Hawks right now.

I think the Bengals should easily cover that line but I think we talked about this before earlier in this thread and those double digit spreads can be a nightmare to close out late on. That would just put enough doubt in my mind but I certainly wouldn't put you off it. As I said last week Posluzhny and Branch out are massive losses to that defence and Bortles is just not making good decisions at the minute. That Chargers Dolphins game should be a right slobber knocker and I'd be all over the unders in that one but I hear you were you're coming from on the chargers, with the chiefs playing so well, this becomes a must win game for them. The Jets are in disarray at the minute but I'm staying away from that game as the Jets are the one team that I've messed up on every week this year including Sunday just gone!

kryogen

Given the trends I find it hard to go against the skins tonight...... If the line keeps moving past 10, or if I can get a good price on 10 I may have to fire. I think this may go over also and have backed Murray to be under 110.5 rushing yards, a decent sized bet on that

eagle eye

Just got 1.98 on -9, so I'm in big on it. I just can't see any way the Skins can stay with the Cowboys with McCoy at QB.

padraig_f

Took the week off after another disaster last week, season from hell this year

Total:
-8.1 units.

Only one I did was MNF: Redskins +10, 2 units.

So expecting a Cowboys blowout.

kryogen

eagle eye wrote: »

Just got 1.98 on -9, so I'm in big on it. I just can't see any way the Skins can stay with the Cowboys with McCoy at QB.

The D will need a big day, which they are capable of. I am torn between taking the skins with the spread or going for a more fun bet of the Cowboys -9.5 and over 49 points

My only serious bet for the game is done, just looking for an interest in the outcome really, I dont hold much hope for the Cowboys to lose unfortunately

JONJO THE MISER

Dont let the bookies fool ye, great value here on the redskins +9.
Vegas and the bookies will be laughing tomorrow for all the people who think Dallas will beat the spread. Dont be fooled.

Washington +9 at 1.980 for max 5 Pts.

Washington to win 3 Pts at 4.610.

eagle eye

kryogen wrote: »

The D will need a big day, which they are capable of. I am torn between taking the skins with the spread or going for a more fun bet of the Cowboys -9.5 and over 49 points

My only serious bet for the game is done, just looking for an interest in the outcome really, I dont hold much hope for the Cowboys to lose unfortunately

Fwiw I have the line on 48 exactly and its just too close to bet on.

It through the air that the Cowboys get ahead in this one imo, I'm tempted by the under on Murray but I'm just afraid that the skins will go to more DB's if they get beat through the air like I expect and leave room too often for him to do his thing.

Hulk Hands

On the unders tonight. Think both teams will want to run the ball and thus use up the clock. Decent week with the Vikings and Bills winning, after losing on the Chargers Thursday Night

kryogen

Cowboys are pleasing me

JONJO THE MISER

kryogen wrote: »

Cowboys are pleasing me

Who ya on?

kryogen

Skins + 10
Murray under 110.5


Im about to get on the Cowboys though now the line is shrinking.

Edit: Also taken the Cowboys now -5.5, I think they win it by about a Td, well hopefully anyway cause then I win twice which is always a thing of beauty

Murray needs to be stuffed quicker though or thats in trouble, he could be on for his first 100 yard game against the Skins.

Edit: Oh and after the fumble I dont think we will see Murray get too much of a rest either unfortunately

JONJO THE MISER

Just backed under 41 points there in play.
I have myself promised myself a ipad air 2 if i win my bets tonight.

kryogen

My +10 on the Skins looking better by the minute, Cowboys killing themselves

Skins get the confidence up, get that momentum going and they may just cause an upset here

Hulk Hands

Just backed the Skins +3.5 at 20/21. Line is simply wrong. They likely get at least 3 points from this drive, so 6 points up. The line was 9 pregame. + they get the ball first in second half, + there's about 1/3rd of the game wrong. Line should be about 1.5. 365 seem to favout the fav way too much in running, if you can get on with them of course! Thankfully the woman can for me the moment

Uggh spoke too soon, sack. Still happy enough with the bet

JONJO THE MISER

kryogen wrote: »

My +10 on the Skins looking better by the minute, Cowboys killing themselves

Skins get the confidence up, get that momentum going and they may just cause an upset here

Exactly what i said earlier, i study a lot for these games and i can spot value a mile off at this stage and the skins +9 was massive value and also to win outright.

kryogen

Super effort there from Bryant and before from Romo

Hulk Hands

Ugghh, that's gone tits up somewhat. We'll see what happens.

No offense Jonjo, but if the +9 was such value, why didn't you jump on the +10 it's been all week? Especially as 10 is such a key number and the difference between +10 and +9 is quite big

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Ugghh, that's gone tits up somewhat. We'll see what happens.

No offense Jonjo, but if the +9 was such value, why didn't you jump on the +10 it's been all week? Especially as 10 is such a key number and the difference between +10 and +9 is quite big

Well i had not the time to look into it properly until today as college football and Nfl took up my weekend plus i was very busy with trading as well today, only so much work and stress a man can take.

JONJO THE MISER

Easy for the skins here, been watching both teams all season and i would of made Dallas -3 favs here, no way -9, just another example of how the public got
it wrong and just follow the line that the bookies have set.
As the great investors say you got to spot value and buy when everybody else is selling, you cant learn it, its a skill that you can get from experience but even then you might not get it, your either born with the sense or not.

Hulk Hands

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Easy for the skins here, been watching both teams all season and i would of made Dallas -3 favs here, no way -9, just another example of how the public got
it wrong and just follow the line that the bookies have set.
As the great investors say you got to spot value and buy when everybody else is selling, you cant learn it, its a skill that you can get from experience but even then you might not get it, your either born with the sense or not.

Right, I wasn't going to say anything but nonsense talk like this is just annoying. You're talking about getting 4 figures on bets. I don't know a single properly successful gambler that can get more than a pittance on these days. Bookies are closing accounts and restricting left right and centre. This also goes for shop bets. I'm only a small punter (average stake 50-100 or so) and I only have about 2 accounts left out of about 30 mainstream books in my own name. If small fry like me can barely get a bet on, then how on earth are you getting 4 figures on every bet and making a living off it.

You say you'd have made the Cowboys -3 tonight. So based on what we've seen, you rated the 6-1 Cowboys as a half point higher than a Colt McCoy led Redskins side that have gone 2-5 so far. I listened to a podcast earlier in the week where a couple of famous vegas based pro gamblers talked about how they jumped on the Cowboys -7 when it opened. Yet you wouldve made it -3.

You say you spotted this a mile off as value. Yet you waited until the line had moved from 10 to 9, after making the game 3. Right.

I dont think anyone is impressed by you coming onto an internet forum bragging about betting thousands and how you can spot what the bookies (who miraciously lay your bets) are doing a mile off. It's neither entertaining nor helpful to others, the reason this thread has been set up.

Gregk961

Thanks for clearing that up Hulk. The last thing anybody wants to see is that superiour know it all rubbish. Even less desirable is mentioning grotesque sums gambled, fictional (which seems certain) or otherwise.

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Right, I wasn't going to say anything but nonsense talk like this is just annoying. You're talking about getting 4 figures on bets. I don't know a single properly successful gambler that can get more than a pittance on these days. Bookies are closing accounts and restricting left right and centre. This also goes for shop bets. I'm only a small punter (average stake 50-100 or so) and I only have about 2 accounts left out of about 30 mainstream books in my own name. If small fry like me can barely get a bet on, then how on earth are you getting 4 figures on every bet and making a living off it.

You say you'd have made the Cowboys -3 tonight. So based on what we've seen, you rated the 6-1 Cowboys as a half point higher than a Colt McCoy led Redskins side that have gone 2-5 so far. I listened to a podcast earlier in the week where a couple of famous vegas based pro gamblers talked about how they jumped on the Cowboys -7 when it opened. Yet you wouldve made it -3.

You say you spotted this a mile off as value. Yet you waited until the line had moved from 10 to 9, after making the game 3. Right.

I dont think anyone is impressed by you coming onto an internet forum bragging about betting thousands and how you can spot what the bookies (who miraciously lay your bets) are doing a mile off. It's neither entertaining nor helpful to others, the reason this thread has been set up.

No your talking nonsense, i can get as much money as i want on buddy, i only use Pinnacle and Matchbook, every single week this college and football season i have been profitable, just because you cant win consistently or spot value is not my problem its yours, keep following the bookies lines and not capping it yourself and you will get far like most gamblers.
And just to edit my account speaks for itself so im quiet happy thanks very much.

JONJO THE MISER

Gregk961 wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up Hulk. The last thing anybody wants to see is that superiour know it all rubbish. Even less desirable is mentioning grotesque sums gambled, fictional (which seems certain) or otherwise.

There is nothing superiour in it at all and im not trying to be.
Most people on here gamble for fun and fair play, i and a few others do it to make money.
I admit i should not be mentioning sums and i normally dont let out the sums i gamble but i got carried away.

padraig_f

padraig_f wrote: »

Took the week off after another disaster last week, season from hell this year

Total:
-8.1 units.

Only one I did was MNF: Redskins +10, 2 units.

So expecting a Cowboys blowout.

Hallelujah! (pity I didn't put a bit on the money line).

Total: -6.2 units.

JONJO THE MISER

+20.535 Pts for the 3 bets i put up here this weekend.

matthew8

1 unit Patriots to win 2.46, 1 unit Chargers to win 2.09.

Hulk Hands

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

No your talking nonsense, i can get as much money as i want on buddy, i only use Pinnacle and Matchbook, every single week this college and football season i have been profitable, just because you cant win consistently or spot value is not my problem its yours, keep following the bookies lines and not capping it yourself and you will get far like most gamblers.
And just to edit my account speaks for itself so im quiet happy thanks very much.

Yeah, my accounts are all restricted or closed because im losing money :rolleyes:

Have you read over the last 2 pages? How am i not capping lines myself when I posted up lines last week before a single bookie, US based or UK had it priced up? How about you release your lines next Sunday night for the following week when you're once again having a mug bet on the late TV game, after all the midweek value is gone?

To a novice you probably seem like you know what you're talking about but to someone experienced, its actually ridiculous what complete and utter crap you're coming out with week on week. Keep making 6-1 teams 3 point favs at home to 2-5 teams and see where it gets you. Like I said already, id have let it go if you weren't spouting nonsense about being 'born' with it and smarter than everyone else. Post up your betslips from now on bigshot. The first man in history to make a living from Pinnacle (sharpest traders in the business)

UnitedIrishman

Can't find an edge in tonights game - was possibly leaning towards the Saints but I've been nailed too many times this year already by them on the road to weaker sides. They wouldn't have beaten the Pack by much last week if Rodgers wasn't struggling and we didn't get a couple of calls against us that turned the tide.

Might be a game left well alone.

Kharrell

Do either of the two guys have records or logs? If not, have a versus matchup with the winner winning X amount from the other. You's can sort the rules out amongst yourselves. Only a suggestion.

As for tonight, I like the Under Total. Over has been hitting at a very good clip in Thursday Night Football, but with the Saints on the road, and Panthers offensive issues, I'll take the Under. The game is too hard to call when backing sides tonight. New Orleans should win, but as I highlighted above, I don't trust them away from the Dome.

JaMarcusHustle

I'm not sure what their argument is even about...!

Jonjo seems to have a good record, and he doesn't aftertime so I'm not sure what the problem is. Not having a go at you HH either, I'm just not sure what's going on here!

kryogen

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Can't find an edge in tonights game - was possibly leaning towards the Saints but I've been nailed too many times this year already by them on the road to weaker sides. They wouldn't have beaten the Pack by much last week if Rodgers wasn't struggling and we didn't get a couple of calls against us that turned the tide.

Might be a game left well alone.

I like the Saints for a couple of reasons, though I hate to pick them on the road. The Panthers have won once since week two, the Saints are coming off a morale boosting win against the Packers. Jimmy Graham looks like he is getting back to his old self and that would be a big factor for the Saints putting up points, he adds so much to that offence. Thomas will probably still be out, but Ingram is coming off a huge day and the Panthers give up over 5 yards a carry so he may have some success again with his confidence up also. The Saints O line will be tested but it is one of the best in the business.

The weather is supposed to be pretty good, no wind to speak of or rain so no problems for Brees.

Personally, I would cap the Saints at 7 point favorites at a neutral site so allowing for homefield advantage Saints -2.5 still looks good to me. Im tempted by the unders due to the trends in matches between these two teams.

I have done a couple of bets on the game, the stakes blacked out as usual



Gone for an adventurous Saints -9 for a laugh The other ones are more serious though

Gregk961

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

I'm not sure what their argument is even about...!

Jonjo seems to have a good record, and he doesn't aftertime so I'm not sure what the problem is. Not having a go at you HH either, I'm just not sure what's going on here!

I think anybody who implies they are born with some sort of natural gift for gambling is either deluded or extremely arrogant and is naturally going to get some peoples backs up.

JaMarcusHustle

Gregk961 wrote: »

I think anybody who implies they are born with some sort of natural gift for gambling is either deluded or extremely arrogant and is naturally going to get some peoples backs up.

Ah, I missed the "born with it" post.

Out of interest Jonjo, how did you only have the Cowboys at -3?

padraig_f

Probably gonna pass on the game, don't feel strongly enough about either side.

I think if you're betting against public-perception, Carolina would be the side.

New Orleans beat Green Bay, but got a huge break when Aaron Rodgers tweaked his hamstring. Rodgers was never the same after that....couldn't step into throws, could't move outside the pocket, had to take shotgun snaps instead of going under center, so couldn't run play-action effectively. It was an even game before his injury. How would we feel if Rodgers stayed healthy, New Orleans lost, and they were 2-5?

Meanwhile Carolina, despite losing, had one of their better performances of the season against the Seahawks. They pretty much led the whole game and conceded a last-minute touchdown to lose.

They got Jonathan Stewart back, and he ran for 4.9 ypc against a good Seattle run-defense.

So the situation favours Carolina, not sure there's enough value, might think about it if it goes to +3.5.

Hulk Hands

Kharrell wrote: »

Do either of the two guys have records or logs? If not, have a versus matchup with the winner winning X amount from the other. You's can sort the rules out amongst yourselves. Only a suggestion.

As for tonight, I like the Under Total. Over has been hitting at a very good clip in Thursday Night Football, but with the Saints on the road, and Panthers offensive issues, I'll take the Under. The game is too hard to call when backing sides tonight. New Orleans should win, but as I highlighted above, I don't trust them away from the Dome.

The NFL season is only 16 weeks long, not anywhere near enough of a sample size to figure out anything conclusively. If I back something and the line doesnt move in my favour i'd consider it a failure, so some sort of competition at closing lines on a sunday or something wouldnt appeal to me at all. This thread is set up to be a help to people (with the season long bets I stuck up before the season started especially, i'd like to think ive helped someone), and im not posting as some dick measuring exercise.

Re: tonight, I agree on the under. If you have a betfair, go to their sportsbook section and have a look at the under 49.5 at 21/20. I think thats a bet. 10/11 everywhere else

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

I'm not sure what their argument is even about...!

Jonjo seems to have a good record, and he doesn't aftertime so I'm not sure what the problem is. Not having a go at you HH either, I'm just not sure what's going on here!

It was annoying seeing him acting the expert when I could see clear as day that he hadn't a breeze. However I was going to let it go until he started spouting nonsense about being gods gift to gambling. I'll leave it go from here. There are plenty of knowlegable posters across this website (and on this thread, such as Padraig), ones that have certainly helped me in years past. It's just bluffers come out just as much, claiming to make a living from it. For example, have a look at the poster : clickquickerlic and his past posts. Similar to bucko here, he claims to make his living from gambling. As you'll see from the contrast in posts, one is telling the truth while the other is talking nonsense.

Kharrell

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The NFL season is only 16 weeks long, not anywhere near enough of a sample size to figure out anything conclusively. If I back something and the line doesnt move in my favour i'd consider it a failure, so some sort of competition at closing lines on a sunday or something wouldnt appeal to me at all. This thread is set up to be a help to people (with the season long bets I stuck up before the season started especially, i'd like to think ive helped someone), and im not posting as some dick measuring exercise.

Re: tonight, I agree on the under. If you have a betfair, go to their sportsbook section and have a look at the under 49.5 at 21/20. I think thats a bet. 10/11 everywhere else



It was annoying seeing him acting the expert when I could see clear as day that he hadn't a breeze. However I was going to let it go until he started spouting nonsense about being gods gift to gambling. I'll leave it go from here. There are plenty of knowlegable posters across this website (and on this thread, such as Padraig), ones that have certainly helped me in years past. It's just bluffers come out just as much, claiming to make a living from it. For example, have a look at the poster : clickquickerlic and his past posts. Similar to bucko here, he claims to make his living from gambling. As you'll see from the contrast in posts, one is telling the truth while the other is talking nonsense.

My 2c will mean nothing to most people here since I'm not a regular contributor. Sure, when I quizzed the regulars here a few weeks back over who maintains a proven winning record, no one chimed in for whatever people's reasons for not replying were. I wouldn't even say I am a lurker really. I just pop in once a week at most and read the a few of the most recent posts and leave, but the petty bickering which is what it looks between some people is all a bit strange to put it politely.

As for the part on you being ahead of the curve line movement wise, otherwise it being a failure, I don't agree with that whatsoever, but if you believe that and it works for you, fair play. I don't sweat over the line too much, unless there is something noticeable like a key injury or something along those lines. From my experience, people either over-complicate things or are lazy bettors lucking for that big hit by betting on parlays, accumulators and similar. There's a medium there, and the best cappers are in that medium zone. I went to Vegas earlier in the year, and became friends with a couple of highly regarded touts over there, and they'll say the same thing.

Final comment on tonight's game, I think it may have opened at 2 a few days ago, I can't recall or be bothered to check the usual sources in regards to lines, but 3/3.5 is right on the button tonight, IMO, and this game is a coin flip. Best of luck with whatever you bet on tonight. I've decided to leave it and at a push, maybe jump on something for the second half.

JaMarcusHustle

This all reminds me, remember the guy on the Gambling forum who was editing his screenshots in photoshop/paint or whatever and making it look like he was bringing in a fortune? One of my favourite Boards scandals

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=70437665&postcount=816

PokeHerKing

Panthers +3, texas +2.5 and oakland +15 so far

matthew8

Saints 0-4 on the road this year, 3-5 last year, backed the Panthers in their first 4 games this year but haven't rated them in a little while, but I just think 2.55 is a bit of value and worth having a go. 1 unit Panthers to win 2.55.

kryogen

I know what you mean, it goes against every sinew in my body to back the Saints on the road, and yet I did it!