NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Popped €10 on Colts -3 at kickoff... had completely forgotten about Cruz, would've taken 51.5 points and Colts -2.5 at 12/5 otherwise!

...that lovely moment when you realise you accidentally made the wrong bet, for higher odds, and it paid off. Turns out I DID have the 12/5 bet after all, though it was -3.5 not -2.5.



There's my €30 bet at the bottom for the over also - the €45 bet was Colts -3 by a mate who texted asking me to put it on for him 5 minutes before kickoff.

kryogen

We did the same bet

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Chargers +2.5 -- If they drop this one they have lost three straight and might be overtaken by Kansas City who play at home to the jets. I just feel Rivers will make enough plays to ultimately get them the win.
Cowboys -2.5 -- The Cardinals have been brilliant this year especially on defence where they dealt with the loss of key guys through injury or few agency and haven't missed a beat. Even if Romo isn't 100% I think that they Cowboys run game will set up a few scores and they'll get the job done.
Colts -3 -- The Giants need this game badly but they are banged up. Cruz is already out and JPP and Roders Cromarterie have done little or no practice this week. Iff JPP is out then Luck will have all kinda of time to throw and I can't see the Giants secondary being able to stop him, especially if DRC is out

Colts saved some face but overall a bad weekend just gone.

Some close to call games this weekend coming, looking forward to the 49rs and Saints match. Not exactly an elimination game for the loser esp with the NFC South being so bad, but the 49rs really need this one with two games against the Hawks still to come.

JaMarcusHustle

Not NFL, but apparently Florida State will be underdogs against Miami next week, which is pretty unbelievable.

Bateman

Can't find any prices on that, how many points are they expecting FSU to be catching?

JaMarcusHustle

Bateman wrote: »

Can't find any prices on that, how many points are they expecting FSU to be catching?

Don't know yet. Usually not officially released until after this week's games. Just relaying what I've heard from someone who is usually right about these things.

Bateman

Sound, must keep an eye on the sporting insights site and the usual twitter fiends:)

matthew8

6-7 last week ATS, 17-11 overall. Bengals -6.5 tonight for that.

kryogen

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Don't know yet. Usually not officially released until after this week's games. Just relaying what I've heard from someone who is usually right about these things.

Would be surprised, would also be more then likely having a decent sized bet on FSU in that scenario

skippymac6

Bengals -6.
AJ Green with a game under his belt, running game going well without Bernard and the defence is due a big game. Cleveland can't run the ball and have struggled against arguably the three worst teams the last three weeks (Jags, Raiders and Buccs). Short week into the bargain too.

JONJO THE MISER

Browns +6.5 at 1.953 for 3 Pts.

Guffy

4 units. Browns money line 9/4

bengals have a poor d line. No pass rush. Run d is horrible and west had a good game last week. Hoyer will have time in pocket. I see it being a close game, bengals prob just edge it but hey, value enough at 9/4 to take a punt on it.

matthew8

Bengals -6.5 2.0 1 unit. While I'm at it, 1 unit on each: Detroit to win 1.76, Kansas City to win 1.84, Seahawks -9.5 2.0, Steelers -4 1.98. Burned twice on the Hawks but the Giants love to get blown out. And for Detroit, a dominant defense and now the return of Calvin Johnson, I think a win is quite likely. The stage is set for another Big Ben big game. And I just think Kansas City are a very good team. Very good teams ought to win away to teams that are a little bit average. Kyle Orton's been terrific however.

eagle eye

Was gonna put a huge bet on the Browns +6.5 but I've split it into two bets, one on that and the other is Hill under 85.5 rushing yards. I just can't decide which is the better bet so an even split and max bet between the two of them.

Guffy

gufc21 wrote: »

4 units. Browns money line 9/4

bengals have a poor d line. No pass rush. Run d is horrible and west had a good game last week. Hoyer will have time in pocket. I see it being a close game, bengals prob just edge it but hey, value enough at 9/4 to take a punt on it.

Honestly thought it would be tighter but silly odds given cincy d problems. Happy out

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Bengals -6.
AJ Green with a game under his belt, running game going well without Bernard and the defence is due a big game. Cleveland can't run the ball and have struggled against arguably the three worst teams the last three weeks (Jags, Raiders and Buccs). Short week into the bargain too.

Ha should have been bengals to get minus 6 points! A truly woeful performance by the Bengals but credit to the Browns who were very good, especially on defence. That's the defensive sort of team that I was hoping they'd be this year. Fair play to them and they are right in the playoff hunt now

UnitedIrishman

Looking at doing a fairly big treble on the Saints, Packers and Steelers. Pays about 8/5. Just can't see any of those three being beat.

Packers at home to a poor Bears defence with Rodgers back and coming off a bye week - hate to tempt fate but I can't see us losing and I think we'll cover -7 too. Only issue is that Josh Sitton and TJ Lang are carrying injuries into the game but JC Tretter is back to play incase either guard goes down.

matthew8

ATS picks for this week:
Cowboys -7, Dolphins -2.5, Chiefs -.5, Ravens -10, Steelers -3.5, Rams +7, Seahawks -8.5, Broncos -11, 49ers +5, Packers -7, Panthers +7, Falcons -2.5.

Packers -7 is so tempting, but could I possibly back it in a derby match? The derby thing is overplayed imo (people saying NFL derbies are closer) because really all NFL games have the potential to be close unexpectedly, it's only when it's a divisional match that people attribute it to a derby, but still. It's Packers-Bears and even though I'm not massive on bye weeks, surely it was a good thing for such a poorly performing team.

Billy86

Sitton and Lang are also both questionable while their backups are a UDFA rookie and a 2nd year guy who only got passed fit in the last week who was a PS guy last year having been drafted in the 6th round and who has never played a professional down (though he was slatede to be our starting C in the offseason, until he got injured and Linsley made such good improvements in the first 5-6 weeks), with the Bears also getting some players back to fitness on defence I believe (including along the line). I wouldn't touch that one, to be honest.

Steelers -3.5 is a shockingly low handicap in my opinion.

Billy86

Vick over 205.5 passing yards (Steelers, home game)
Bortles over 233.5 passing yards (Cowboys, London)
Flacco over 263.5 passing yards (Titans, home game)
€18 each all at 5/6 for €15 return per bet, plus €10 treble at 5.16/1

The line of Vick is just too low to pass up, I have a feeling the refs will help out both offences a bit in the London game since it's a show piece, and I just have a feeling Flacco is set to get 280+ today against a pretty pedestrian Titans pass defence. Also for Vick/Bortles, something to always consider on these bets are the power of junk yards. Very, very tempted to take Roethlisberger at 276.5 yards also, but I have a bit of a feeling they might just focus on the run game if they have a big lead by the half (which is exactly what the Chargers did against the Jets because they pose basically zero threat to get back into the game from a big deficit).

Also Steelers -3.5 at 5/6, €30 for €25 return.

kryogen

Have gone heavy enough on the Steelers -3.5, have a little treble of the Ravens, the Steelers and Broncos too, so I expect the Steelers to lose

padraig_f

matthew8 wrote: »

Packers -7 is so tempting, but could I possibly back it in a derby match? The derby thing is overplayed imo (people saying NFL derbies are closer) because really all NFL games have the potential to be close unexpectedly, it's only when it's a divisional match that people attribute it to a derby, but still. It's Packers-Bears and even though I'm not massive on bye weeks, surely it was a good thing for such a poorly performing team.

I'm still not decided if I'm gonna bet on it just because of the defensive problems, but gambling-wise it's a great spot for the Bears. Got the bye to sort some things out, get players back/healthy.

Record is 3-5, but have still 5 division games to play, so they'll still believe it's possible to make the playoffs. If they lose to the Packers though, they'll be 0-2 against them and have lost the tie-break, so it will be over at 3-6.

It's a season-on-the-line game, so you will get the Bears best effort. Whether that'll be enough, I'm not sure, but will be tempted at +7.5.

padraig_f

Ok, did out my lines, and came out Packers -8, so gonna pass on that, think it's a fair line.

Either I'm way off or there are some good value bets this week (probably the former), but I'm more in disagreement than usual. Think I'll be firing big on the Titans (bookies lines in brackets):

6pm
Chiefs @ Bills -3 (+1)
Dolphins @ Lions +0 (-3)
Cowboys @ Jags +5 (+7)
49ers @ Saints -3.5 (-6)
Titans @ Ravens -3.5 (-10)
Steelers @ Jets +3.5 (+3.5)
Falcons @ Bucs -2 (+3)

Like:
Titans +10 @ Ravens
Dolphins +3 @ Lions
Bills +1 vs. Chiefs

Lean:
49ers +6 @ Saints
Jags +7 vs. Cowboys
Bucs +3 vs. Falcons

9pm
Broncos @ Raiders +11 (+11.5)
Rams @ Cardinals -9 (-6.5)
Giants @ Seahawks -10 (-9)

Like: Cardinals -6.5 vs. Rams

SNF
Bears @ Packers -8 (-7.5)

D Hayes

kryogen wrote: »

Have gone heavy enough on the Steelers -3.5

Same here. That's too good to pass up.

padraig_f

6pm
3 units Titans +10 vs. Ravens
2 units Dolphins +3 @ Lions
2 units Jags +7 vs. Cowboys
1.5 units Bucs +3 vs. Falcons
1 unit Titans money-line vs. Ravens @ 5.23
1 unit Bills -1 vs. Chiefs

9pm
1.5 units Cardinals -6.5 vs. Rams

Guffy

Tiny treble for interest sake today

miami +3
Chiefs +1
Falcons -3

Falcons -3 2 units... coming off a bye, jones fully fit by all accounts and tampa are terrible.

Miami +3 1 unit I just fancy them

Jags moneyline 13/5 3 units. How fit is romo? I know myself sitting on a plane for so long will not have helped the back. the jags d is actually pretty good. Not as confident as my browns bet (which wasn't overly confident about anyway) but again the odds are there to take this bet. Still hope murray tears it up for fantasy purposes

eagle eye

I'm all over the Chiefs, on them big.

I'll do the rest of my bets later.

matthew8

Padraig, why do you have the Titans as only half a point worse off than the Ravens on neutral ground? They've been blown out quite a bit this year. Smith is a concerning loss for the Ravens alright but surely they're at least a few points better?

Billy86

matthew8 wrote: »

Padraig, why do you have the Titans as only half a point worse off than the Ravens on neutral ground? They've been blown out quite a bit this year. Smith is a concerning loss for the Ravens alright but surely they're at least a few points better?

Steve Smith is also listed as probable and did a full practice on Friday. It's confusing to me too, even with all their injuries in the secondary Mettenberger is a 6th round rookie in what will be his second start. He did well last week against Houston, but I just think Baltimore are not the type of team someone in his situation wants to be facing, in honesty. Not until he cuts those damn sideburns!

kryogen

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm all over the Chiefs, on them big.

I'll do the rest of my bets later.

I have been tempting and teasing myself with them all day, haven't pulled the trigger yet though

padraig_f

matthew8 wrote: »

Padraig, why do you have the Titans as only half a point worse off than the Ravens on neutral ground? They've been blown out quite a bit this year. Smith is a concerning loss for the Ravens alright but surely they're at least a few points better?

More of a stats play, haven't been following them that closely. But a couple of close losses, I have them as an above-average defense, and coming off a bye. Likely my line is a couple of points off too, but the discrepancy is so big, I think there must be some value.

Also a part-play on Baltimore, who I'm not that high on.

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

I have been tempting and teasing myself with them all day, haven't pulled the trigger yet though

Went in on that a while ago just to update, Chiefs, moneyline.

eagle eye

kryogen wrote: »

Went in on that a while ago just to update, Chiefs, moneyline.

Same as that for me.

Also on a straight accum. no handicaps, Ravens, Saints, Steelers, Broncos, Cards and Seahawks.

I didn't go for a td scorers accums this week. Still sick over DeMarco letting me down last week for a huge accum.

skippymac6

Gone Tampa +3, Dallas -7 and Bills -1. I like the steelers to win but I've got the jets wrong pretty much every week so I left it

basillarkin

Jets killing me here. The steelers have been muck

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Have gone heavy enough on the Steelers -3.5, have a little treble of the Ravens, the Steelers and Broncos too, so I expect the Steelers to lose

Standard.

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

ATS picks for this week:
Cowboys -7, Dolphins -2.5, Chiefs -.5, Ravens -10, Steelers -3.5, Rams +7, Seahawks -8.5, Broncos -11, 49ers +5, Packers -7, Panthers +7, Falcons -2.5.

Packers -7 is so tempting, but could I possibly back it in a derby match? The derby thing is overplayed imo (people saying NFL derbies are closer) because really all NFL games have the potential to be close unexpectedly, it's only when it's a divisional match that people attribute it to a derby, but still. It's Packers-Bears and even though I'm not massive on bye weeks, surely it was a good thing for such a poorly performing team.

Because it's unlikely right now correcting an error, meant to say Lions -2.5. Dolphins were never 2.5 point faves.

D Hayes

kryogen wrote: »

Have gone heavy enough on the Steelers -3.5, have a little treble of the Ravens, the Steelers and Broncos too, so I expect the Steelers to lose

Ouch. I feel your pain...

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Went in on that a while ago just to update, Chiefs, moneyline.

The Chiefs managed to limit my losses significantly, but I still hate the Steelers, no idea what to do about the Packers game, think I may leave the rest of the schedule alone this week in fact.

Billy86

Got burned pretty badly on the early games, the Steelers/Jets game cost me especially. Won myself back to almost breaking even thanks to a double on the 9pm games (below) and now have €12 on Lacy over 68.5 yards and €20 on GB -5.5 and over 52.5 total pts at 13/10.

The Cardinals saved the day for me for the second time this year I what late defensive TDs.

The €13 bet/€46 win in the screenshot was put on for a friend.

Guffy

Break even thanks to falcons being at evs. Thank god I didn't trust big ben. Disappointed I didn't push on chiefs in a single. But break even essentially so can't complain.

gerire

Really need the bears to get in here to help this over.
The Gb side of the bet is safe


Ah nuts

skippymac6

Just doing out my own lines for week 11 and the hardest game I had to try and evaluate was the Chiefs hosting the Seahawks. I Finally went with the Chiefs as a point favourites but could easily have gone the other way. The Chiefs deserve to be favourites in that one and they are really grinding out the wins at the minute. Hopefully sky show that game as the only other two they could be considering from the early games is Bengals @ Saints or 49rs @ Giants but surely there would be more clamour for the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Deco99

skippymac6 wrote: »

Just doing out my own lines for week 11 and the hardest game I had to try and evaluate was the Chiefs hosting the Seahawks. I Finally went with the Chiefs as a point favourites but could easily have gone the other way. The Chiefs deserve to be favourites in that one and they are really grinding out the wins at the minute. Hopefully sky show that game as the only other two they could be considering from the early games is Bengals @ Saints or 49rs @ Giants but surely there would be more clamour for the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Winner winner chicken dinner.... traditional teams

skippymac6

Deco99 wrote: »

Winner winner chicken dinner.... traditional teams

Ye I was thinking that but I just checked and it the Chiefs game is on at 6pm on Sunday so happy with that.

Deco99

skippymac6 wrote: »

Ye I was thinking that but I just checked and it the Chiefs game is on at 6pm on Sunday so happy with that.

on Sky?

I checked on the website and it said 49ers

skippymac6

Yeah checked it on the Sky TV listings website.

Tried to do a screen print there so I've just attached it as an excel file...

Warper

Done my treble already

Cleveland -3 to beat Houston
Over 50.5pts Denver @ Rams
San Diego -9.5 to beat a woeful Raiders outfit

Only shaky one i see out of that is Cleveland

matthew8

Like the look of the Patriots away to Colts, should be favourites for me. Vikings +3.5 is another one that amazes me. All over that after the Bears performance last night.

kryogen

Luck is pretty good in the dome but I have already put a bet on the Pats on the money line for this. Brady is an animal in the dome also, naturally.