NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

eagle eye

I'm having a couple of bets tonight. My bigger bets are on Mark Sanchez under 281.5 yards passing. and Cam Newton over 37.5 rushing yards.

JONJO THE MISER

Over 47.5 pts at 1.862 for 4 Pts.

Billy86

€15 on Stewart to rush over 42.5 yards at evens.
€10 on over 48.5 & Eagles -3.5 at 7/5.

eagle eye

In play, just jumped on the Panthers straight @ 18/5

matthew8

+5.45 with 46 staked, 9-4 ATS on the week, 26-15. 1 unit each on Vikings (2.48) and Patriots (2.31) to win.

Billy86

I don't like going over 6.5 points but Saints -7 against Bengals is very tempting. OVer/under is 50.5 so might see if Saints -7/over 44.5 or so has decent odds when it comes out.

49ers -4.5 against the Giants, in NY or not, in frankly a little insane looking. Giants defence is riddled with injuries and their offense has been very poor - they had 17 against the Seahawks, but one TD came off starting on Seattle's 24 from a pick and the other drive relied on a 44 yarder from Beckham (who has admittedly looked very good the last two weeks). Against the Colts so-so defense they had 24 points, but 14 were junk time TDs down 40-10 in the fourth. Over/under is 43.5 points so tempted to wait to see if 49ers -4/over 43.5 is around 13/8 whenever they come out too.

Vikings +3.5 against the Bears as has been mentioned is probably too good to turn down. Keep an eye on Bridgewater's over/under passing yards too (not out til Saturday on PP) because the Giants safeties and scheming are horrific.

Falcons +1.5 in Carolina too - Star Lotuleilei (sp?) is surely going to at least struggle with his ankle because that looked horrific last night - thankfully apparently no bones broken. The rest of their D is awful while Cam and the receivers are all struggling badly... decent chance Derek Anderson starts. Falcons will get a boost from the Bucs win and despite the second half collapse stil lshould have beaten the Lions in London, when Detroit got a second chance at a FG from their own delay of game (or false start? Can't remember) penalty.

PP do a 20% bonus for bets of 5 or more handicaps/matches so I'm going to lob in the Chargers just to win at 2/11 which brings the odds from 11.33/1 to 15.28/1 and stick €10 on. In other words... get ready for the Raiders to pull off the upset of the season!

Also not NFL related but when I went on to Paddy Power to check the odds a pop up showed up that gave me even odds on Murray to beat Raonic tonight when the normal price is 1/2 on. Put on the maximum allowed of €26... win or lose, can't argue with doubling the odds!

matthew8

1 unit Packers -5 1.96. ATS picks for this week: Bills +5, Browns -3, Vikings +3.5, Packers -5, Chiefs -1.5, Falcons +1.5, Bengals +7.5, Buccaneers +7.5, Broncos -9, Giants +4, Chargers -10.5, Lions +2, Patriots +2.5, Steelers -5.5.

Bateman

My lines for this week were:
Thursday, Nov. 13
Bills at Dolphins +1

Sunday, Nov. 16
Vikings at Bears -3
Texans at Browns -2.5
Eagles at Packers -6.5
Seahawks at Chiefs -1
Falcons at Panthers +1
Bengals at Saints -5.5
Buccaneers at Redskins +2.5
Broncos at Rams +7
49ers at Giants +3
Raiders at Chargers -10
Lions at Cardinals -5.5
Patriots at Colts -2.5

Monday, Nov. 17
Steelers at Titans +6.5

Bye: Jaguars, Ravens, Cowboys, Jets

Couple of thoughts based on my own lines this week (Redskins game I just got wrong, obviously didn’t think enough ). The two teams I don’t think are getting enough respect are Arizona and Buffalo. Buffalo are a team that I know have been backed by sharp money for weeks, so I am loathe to presume I can just climb on the bandwagon and win bets at this stage. However I just don’t rate Miami very highly, no matter how impressive their D stats are. If you suspect that the Bears and the Panthers have downed tools for the season (as opposed to being classic play-your-hardest, bounce-back opportunities) then you have decent spots to oppose them IMO. So Vikings and Falcons definitely at least leans as of today.

Billy86

Double at 2.36/1 on Bridgewater to pass for over 244.5 yards @ Chicago, and Rivers to pass for over 253.5 yards vs. Oakland (in San Diego). Both are 5/6 and strike me as extremely low lines - the only worry with Rivers is the Chargers having a massive lead by half time and not passing much... they played a few weeks ago (when the Raiders had a bye week to prepare, in Oakland) and Rivers had 313 yards. I reckon it's just such a low line due to them coming off a bye week, and him having arguably the worst game of his career in Miami the week before that.

As for Bridgewater... the Bears defence is just phenomenally bad, and is more prone to the long pass. No pass rush, embarrassingly poor safeties, a few key injuries, and horrendous scheming. Just have to hope their offence can put something together to make it a competitive game because I've had money on Bridgewater before, and have noticed the Vikings are sometimes far too conservative with the lead. The Bears though have given up at least 255 yards in their last seven straight games, and 300+ yards in four of those games. Since week 3 they have comfortably been the worst pass defence in the league, at least in terms of yardage and yards per attempt.

eagle eye

I don't like that Billy. As a matter of fact I'd fancy the under on Bridgewater. I think the the Vikings are going to use the ground game a lot as they potentially have a very big decision to make on Monday about Peterson and they'll want to be sure of what they have got without him.

Ryan Matthews has practiced almost a full two weeks and is back now and I'd imagine he will get plenty of the ball. Its a very tight line on Rivers, I wouldn't fancy it either way.

skippymac6

Nothing really appeals in the first set of games so I am going to take a money line treble on the Broncos, Saints and 49rs.

The two I like are the Lions +1 -- Stanton has been good deputising for Palmer this year but this Lions defensive line has been brilliant and I think they force enough mistakes from him and do enough on offence to get the win.

Packers -5.5 -- Sanchez has done well so far but it will be different up in Lambeau. If the Packers don't give away big plays to the Eagles defence or on special teams, I'm not sure the Eagles offence keeps pace with Rodgers and the rest of his weapons.

padraig_f

Here are my lines and bets this week (actual lines in brackets). Biggest play this week is the Seahawks at the Chiefs. Packers seems like a square bet as they're coming off a big win, but I dunno, my line says it should be more than a touchdown.

6pm
Vikings @ Bears +1 (+3)
Seahawks @ Chiefs +5 (-1.5)
Falcons @ Panthers +1 (+1.5)
Bengals @ Saints -9 (-7)
Bucs @ Redskins -10 (-7)
Broncos @ Rams +10 (+9)
49ers @ Giants +6 (+4)
Texans @ Browns -3 (-3.5)

9pm
Raiders @ Chargers -7.5 (-10.5)
Lions @ Cardinals +2 (-1)
Eagles @ Packers -8 (-6)

SNF
Patriots @ Colts -4 (-3)


Love
Seahawks +1.5 @ Chiefs

Like
Packers -6 vs. Eagles
Redskins -7 vs. Bucs
Raiders +10.5 @ Chargers
Lions +1 @ Cardinals

Lean
Colts -3 vs. Patriots
Saints -7 vs. Bengals
Vikings +3 @ Bears
49ers -4 @ Giants

Pass
Falcons @ Panthers
Broncos @ Rams
Texans @ Browns

Bets
4 units Seahawks money-line @ Chiefs, 2.05
2 units Redskins -7 vs. Bucs
2 units Lions +1 @ Cardinals
1.5 units Packers -6 vs. Eagles
1 unit Raiders +10.5 @ Chargers

1 unit accumulator: Saints -7 vs. Bengals, 49ers -4 @ Giants, Colts -3 vs. Patriots, @ 7.1

Kharrell

You must be with Paddypower to be getting 6 for the Packers. Everywhere else is -5 or -5.5 at most.

Like Packers, Lions, Bears and Broncos. Some of the trends for the Colts are off putting for tonight, but I have to look at it that more in depth to get a better feel later today. Have a feeling the Hawks game is a trap, but we'll see.

Billy86

They're -5.5 on Paddy too, were 5 until this morning or last night. I've not put anything on it yet, but tempted on Packers -2.5 and over 48.5 at 10/11 or -6.5 and over 48.5 and 2/1.

Also Sanchez under 275.5 passing yards is tempting. As much sh!t at us Green Bay fans give Capers for getting bent over every time we play either an elite QB or a QB who can be devastating with the pass or run (hello, Kaepernick!) he is very good at usually bullying average QBs throughout the game (Cutler and Stafford will attest to this) which I think will be a major factor tonight despite Sanchez looking to fit the Eagles system very well. Also added to that Clay should be playing a lot of ILB again where (yes, the Bears are woeful but still...) he was fantastic last week and showed up everywhere - go short right and he's there, go short left and he's there, go over the middle and he's there, take longer and he's crashing in on a blitz. Haha Dix and Hyde also to an extent have helped our shocking safety play from last year so we are not as vulnerable deep over the middle, and Clay might go some way to helping out at ILB where we were equally poor and were otherwise only marginally improved this season. Also, we did good against Forte running last week but I expect the Eagles to run a bit more and take some sting out of the crowd by looking to keep the ball longer - obviously this also means less passing yards for Sanchez.

kryogen

Sanchez under 281.5 yards is available on 365

Irish94

Padraig, PP have enhanced the price for Seahawks to win from evens too 9/5.

skippymac6

Adding the Buccs +7 against the redskins. Not sold on Griffen yet and McCown played pretty well last week. Jackson finally looks healthy and Evans is playing very well. Worried about their defence but +7 is fair enough I think.

LuckyGent88

Going with the standard accumulator this week. Saints, 49ers, broncos, redskins and chargers to win.
Hopefully no bloody upset like the jets last weekend.

eagle eye

Anytime td scorers fun accum on Roddy White, Ryan Matthews, Mark Ingram, Randal Cobb, Emmanuel Sanders and Frank Gore. Pays over 30/1

I'm taking the Saints -9.5 as my big bet of the day.

kryogen

There's always rats an upset Lucky

My own pick for an upset this week is the Giants over the 9ers

eagle eye

Just went on the Chiefs in-running after the first Seahawks drive.

eagle eye

kryogen wrote: »

There's always rats an upset Lucky

My own pick for an upset this week is the Giants over the 9ers

If they were good against the run I'd fancy it but they are not.

For me if there is to be an upset today it would be the Texans over the Browns. Ryan Mallett is an x-factor in that game. He has not been rushed into a starting role but its quite clear that Bill O'Brien has wanted him since he took over the Texans. Mallett has a big arm which makes Johnson and Hopkins very dangerous today.

kryogen

I have picked the Texans also, I'm with you on the Saints, have a large bet on them to cover the spread

Billy86

Well the accumulator failed and Bridgewater let me down (had enough pass attempts... averaged 3.25 yards per attempt through the first three quarters, which is simply just unspeakable against that Bears defence.

Have €35 on a double of GB -4.5/over 44.5 points, and the Chargera/Raiders to go over 45.5 points at 3.77/1, €167 return.

Also thanks to Eli's fifth pick I might just be holding on for a treble I had of Norway (away to Azerbaijan), 9ers to win and Holland -1 at home to Latvia. Norway And Holland already came good, just clingsling on now...

skippymac6

Every early game bar the chiefs went unders. That was 44 points scored and the line I looked was 43.5 so I'm sure there was a few +\- 44.5 out there for the clean sweep!

LuckyGent88

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Going with the standard accumulator this week. Saints, 49ers, broncos, redskins and chargers to win.
Hopefully no bloody upset like the jets last weekend.

Well that didn't exactly go to plan!!!!

Kharrell

Zona roll second half. Liking the +3 2H there and Under 33 FG in San Diego.

upandcumming

Followed football baby for the lols. Have Texans, Chiefs, Colts and the Steelers. Around 12/1.

Billy86

Really have to get behind football baby sometime for the craic.

Been a terrible day so far for me, going to cap it all off with a go-for-broke 3/1 bet of €50 on Pats to win, over 57.5 points.

Kharrell

Kharrell wrote: »

Zona roll second half. Liking the +3 2H there and Under 33 FG in San Diego.

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Colts -3 for me, statement game tonight on prime time.

kryogen

Been a mixed bag today, I have the Pats on the moneyline since early in the week, probably not going to do anything else for the game

matthew8

2 early bets for next week, all over the Bills in particular. Bills -4.5 1 unit 1.96, Broncos -7 1 unit 1.95. Early ATS picks: Chiefs -6.5, Browns +3, Bengals +2, Packers -9.5, Bills -4.5, Buccaneers +6, Seahawks -6.5, Rams +6.5, Broncos -7.

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Really have to get behind football baby sometime for the craic.

Been a terrible day so far for me, going to cap it all off with a go-for-broke 3/1 bet of €50 on Pats to win, over 57.5 points.

Thank Christ! Won a tenner on Ireland, 25 on a Norway/Holland/49ers treble, then lost 85 on three other NFL bets. 135 profit here (since I backed the Colts when they got to 8 points down for 15 at 7/1) but Jonas Gray saved the day so at least I came out with €85 on top on the day.

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

Been a mixed bag today, I have the Pats on the moneyline since early in the week, probably not going to do anything else for the game

And The Patriots dominate on the ground to give me a bit of healthy profit for the week, happy now

Billy86

PP offering enhanced odds on Steelers ML/just to win now - up from 10/31 to evens, put on their max allowed bet of €26.

upandcumming

Billy86 wrote: »

PP offering enhanced odds on Steelers ML/just to win now - up from 10/31 to evens, put on their max allowed bet of €26.

Link to that?

Billy86

upandcumming wrote: »

Link to that?

If you have a PP account it should show up on the bottom of your screen when you log in (or click into their American Football maybe). Not sure if it's offered to all customers or just because I've done a lot of bets on there this season (mostly small ball things, €10-15 stuff) but they've also offered me Murray to beat Raonic in tennis up from 1/2 to evens, England half time/full time the other day up from 8/11 to 13/8 I think (let me down) and now this all in the last week or so.

EDIT: Found them!
Also, they're offering Steelers to win all 4 quarters at 14/1 - might be worth some loose change for the craic, plus if they win first three, and you've say €5 on to win €70, it should be easy to cover €10 or so in the fourth quarter if it's a blow out.
14/1, 4 quarters: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-special
evens, to win: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-special?action=go_enhanced_prices

Also put €3.26 on the 14/1 bet since that was spare money in my account. Not really gonna come off but it could make the game interesting all the same.

upandcumming

Gone for me! Thanks anyway.

helimachoptor

now 15-1.. tbh i can see this coming off

Billy86

Ah crap, I got awful value ! Still wouldn't recommend putting more than loose change on it, and keep an eye for if Pittsburgh steam roll the first three quarters to do a handicap bet for the Titans coming into the fourth to cover.

helimachoptor

Billy86 wrote: »

Ah crap, I got awful value ! Still wouldn't recommend putting more than loose change on it, and keep an eye for if Pittsburgh steam roll the first three quarters to do a handicap bet for the Titans coming into the fourth to cover.

I fully expect the titans to suck for the first 3.. even when the Steelers take their foot off they'll still win

JONJO THE MISER

On the steelers heavy myself tonight.

Kharrell

Like Ten +3 2H and Under 24 2H.

Kharrell

Kharrell wrote: »

Like Ten +3 2H and Under 24 2H.

Push and 🍻, just about.

Billy86

Leveon Bell saved the day for me I the end that Christ. Still, that's got to be the last time I bet on, or against, the Steelers all year. Between the insane win over the Texans (who I had backed) and the losses to the Jets and Bucs and almost Titans (all of which I had money on Pittsburgh for) they are just way, way too unpredictable.

Josh Gordon is back for Cleveland who are 3pt underdogs, so put a treble on then to beat Atlanta (25/17), Bills -4.5 home to Jets (20/21) and Colts/Jags over 50.5 points (10/11) for total odds of 8.2/1. €12 for €110.50 total return, well worth a stab I reckon.

Taking a quick glance at the early lines, it looks like it might be a week to bet on the underdogs keeping it close for the most part, don't know about everyone else but generally I feel a little more uneasy about those nets than favourites to cover (within 5-6 points, that is).

matthew8

Colts -13 1.95 1 unit.

Packers -9.5 1.97 1 unit. ATS picks: Eagles -11, Patriots -7, 49ers -9, Colts -13, Ravens +3.

Bateman

Definitely a week for the dogs. I feel uneasy about nearly all the big favourites this week.

Billy86

What's people's opinions on this?

I hate, hate, hate taking the unders for points since you find yourself rooting for a usually dull game, but I am very tempted with Chiefs -4.5 and under 43.5 points tonight at 13/8. Maybe even same handicap with a line of 35.5 points at 10/3 and here is why.

Standard handicap is -7.5 and standard points are -42.5, while both QBs are at 192.5 passing yards (the lowest any QB has had all year I believe - Vick was 195.5 in his first week starting while Russell Wilson was either 188.5 or 195.5 a few days back, can't remember which). Jamaal Charles is high on 99.5 yards but McFadden is only 35.5 yards for Oakland. Chiefs have tied 3rd best pass defence ypa and prefer to grind games early since they can (and lack receiving options) rather than run up loads of scores while Raiders are on the other end, while the Raiders run defence is underratedly stingy in 7th with 3.8ypc but have the least points in the league at 152.

Raiders pass defence allows a good few yards but Chiefs are 8th lowest at 5.9ypa, and while Chiefs run defence allows a lot per carry, Raiders are 4th lowest at 3.4ypc. Both are amongst the very lowest in takeaways, while the Chiefs are also quite low on giveaways - the Raiders give it away a lot but seem to be improving a bit over the last month or so in that department.

Surely the Chiefs should win this reasonably comfortably but I get the feeling we could be looking at a 17-3 type of scoreline and am even tempted at the bicycle kick Chiefs -8.5 and under 35.5 total points at 5/1. It's not guaranteed but says value all over to me... but I'm having a hard time justifying hitting on an under.

Bateman

I find totals so hard to win on that I generally think going under a high total, or over a low total, is easier to win on. Just personal experience. I don't like going under on low totals.

matthew8

Pinnacle have refunded my Bills bet due to postponing. Are the other bookies doing this?