NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Guffy

matthew8 wrote: »

Pinnacle have refunded my Bills bet due to postponing. Are the other bookies doing this?

If its not played within 24 hours they have to afaik

Billy86

Got on to Paddy Power because I had a treble on Browns to win, Colts/Jags over 50.5 and Bills -4.5, it's the same for them - "Abandoned or postponed games are void unless played within the same scheduling week. In the event of a change of venue, all bets will be void."

So basically my treble just became a double, GO BROWNS!!

Billy86

Longshot treble, but at basically 20/1 odds I popped €10 on it so here's hoping...

6pm: Colts -11.5 and over 50.5 match points at home to Jaguars, 15/8
I reckon the Colts should run riot in this match to try and get their rhythm back after the Pats game. I'm also not overly sold on their defence and reckon Jacksonville can get at least 10-13. It's a big handicap line obviously but as ridiculously high scoring a team as the Colts are at home to the Jaguars, it's one of the very few times I'd feel comfortable going this high.

6pm: Eagles -8.5 and over 48.5 points at home to the Titans, 9/5
The Eagles defence has got a lot of problems in it, but their offence should be fine against Tennessee I reckon - don't think there'll be a repeat of Green Bay. I think both teams go over 20, the bigger risk is if the Eagles go over 30.

9.30 pm: Broncos -6.5 and over 42.5 match points at home to Dolphins, 8/5
The big worry is the Dolphins pass rush with the Broncos, but Clady had full practice all week and is listed probable while Julius Thomas should play in a limited capacity, so I've got faith in them to cover a TD difference. Since Manning went to the Broncos they have averaged 35.6 points per game and are 18-3. I also reckon the Dolphins have enough to get into double digits and if the Broncos run away with it there could be some junk time fourth quarter points.

Total: 19.93/1 odds.

skippymac6

Still formulating my bets for this evening but one just sticks out like a sore thumb. Andrew Luck over 308.5 yards against the Jags. He'll be hurting after last weeks loss to the pats and with Ahmad Bradshaw on IR now you'd have to imagine they'll be pass heavy today. On top of that, when they played earlier in the year, the colts continues to throw and run up the score when they were up by two and three scores. That line is with PP and the bet365 has Luck at over 327.5 at 4/5.

padraig_f

3 units. Titans +12 @ Eagles
2 units. Lions +7 @ Patriots
1.5 units. Browns +3 @ Falcons
1 unit. Redskins +9.5 @ 49ers

Accumulators for some leans...

1 unit. Bengals +2.5 @ Texans, Vikings +7.5 vs. Packers, Jags +14 @ Colts (6/1)

1 unit. Cardinals +7.5 @ Seahawks, Chargers -6 vs. Rams, Broncos -6.5 vs. Dolphins (6/1)

Paully D

Bengals ML - 5/4.

Billy86

So I didn't intend on doing many bets this week with some tricky lines, but sadly I slowly lost the run of myself, have an awful feeling I might be regretting this by about midnight.

Patriots to win at home to Lions, 5/17
Colts to win at home to Jags, 1/9*
Broncos to win at home to Dolphins, 10/29
Packers -7.5 away to Vikings, 20/21
Cardinals +7.5 away to Seahawks, 5/6
*Plus Paddy Power 20% bonus for five+ game accumulator (only reason Colts are in).
Accumulator, €15 for €121 return

Browns to win away to Falcons, 25/17
Jaguars/Colts over 50.5 match points, 10/11
(also had Bills -4.5 but was voided due to change of date/venue)
Double, €12 on for €56.60 return

Colts -11.5 and over 50.5 match points at home to Jaguars, 15/8
Eagles -8.5 and over 48.5 points at home to the Titans, 9/5
Broncos -6.5 and over 42.5 match points at home to Dolphins, 7/4
Treble, €10.06 on, €210.56 return

Colts -11.5 and over 50.5 match points at home to Jaguars, 9/5
Single, €20 for €55 return

Broncos -6.5 and over 42.5 match points at home to Dolphins, 7/4
Single, €20 for €56 return

Philip Rivers over 240.5 passing yards vs Rams, 5/6
Single, €12 for €22 return

Mark Sanchez over 269.5 passing yards vs Titans, 5/6
Andrew Luck over 307.5 passing yards vs Jaguars, 5/6
Double, €10 for €33.61 return

EDIT: Also...
Jordy Nelson first touchdown scorer away to Vikings, 6/1
Randall Cobb first touchdown scorer away to Vikings, 15/2
Singles, €2.50 each for €17.50 or €21.25 return (PP special: odds double if first TD scorer scores again in game)

Total stake: €104.06

skippymac6

Browns +3
Bengals +2.5
Colts -14
Under 48 points in NE vs Det

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Jordy Nelson first touchdown scorer away to Vikings, 6/1
Randall Cobb first touchdown scorer away to Vikings, 15/2
Singles, €2.50 each for €17.50 or €21.25 return (PP special: odds double if first TD scorer scores again in game)

Just realised it would be a bit dumb to do two players in the same game, so took Cobb at 15/2 and replaced Nelson with Josh Gordon at 9/1 in case he has a 'statement game' on his return.

eagle eye

Green, Jefferey, Lacy, Sproles, White and Hilton anytime td accum.

Bengals straight, Falcons -2.5, Packers -7.5, Over 47.5 Lions/Pats, under 49.5 Colts/Jags and over 46 Bears/Bucs is my other small system bet.

Billy86

Colts/Jags has been brutal but the total match points on Paddy is now at 32.5 at 5/6 odds so stuck 20 on it. Surely the Colts, at home, in the second half have to do better than that? Surely?

skippymac6

Billy86 wrote: »

Colts/Jags has been brutal but the total match points on Paddy is now at 32.5 at 5/6 odds so stuck 20 on it. Surely the Colts, at home, in the second half have to do better than that? Surely?

Three fumbles in the first half. They'll pull away in the second half if they can protect Luck

Billy86

skippymac6 wrote: »

Three fumbles in the first half. They'll pull away in the second half if they can protect Luck

That's what I'm thinking - all those turnovers and 6 points from 3 redzone trips is not a trend that should keep up in the second half.

Kharrell

Vikings will cover.

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Colts/Jags has been brutal but the total match points on Paddy is now at 32.5 at 5/6 odds so stuck 20 on it. Surely the Colts, at home, in the second half have to do better than that? Surely?

It's still just at 33 now (4/5 odds) after the Colts TD for anyone looking for a bet...

Kharrell

Kharrell wrote: »

Vikings will cover.

Covers the +5.5 2H ��

So many people were on the Packers just got burnt. Easy read.

Billy86

Kharrell wrote: »

Covers the +5.5 2H ��

So many people were on the Packers just got burnt. Easy read.

You can thank Dom Capers for that.

Kharrell

Under in San Diego.

Seahawks cover.

Billy86

Took Cardinals €10 at 4/1 after they held Seahawks to a FG.

UnitedIrishman

Need the Broncos and 49ers to win for a four team accum (Pats and Packers other teams).

Have a feeling Seattle will finally get going today at home and cover.

Kharrell

Under in Denver.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Browns +3
Bengals +2.5
Colts -14
Under 48 points in NE vs Det

Thought Brady was killing me going for the TD when they could have iced the game but I'll take it! Pity Luck didn't have his best game but I'll take 4/5

Billy86

By the time this round of games is over, it's looking like I will be 0-for-12 on my bets today. Far and away my worst betting day in anything ever in terms of wins to losses. Holy ****.

matthew8

39-28 ATS now, +5.67 on the bets with 52 staked. Bills game cancelled betting wise so new ATS pick is Bills -2.5. Not gonna put any money on it, part due to nervousness after a horrendous week on rugby but also it just feels a bit dodgy being played in a new venue and I think Vick's looked alright for the Jets.

Billy86

Easily my worst night of NFL betting in years, down €112, only 1 of 13 bets came off, and I've lashed €50 more on Dallas -3.5 and over 47.5 points now in sheer all-or-nothing desperation.

Kharrell

Maybe it's just me, but totals are so much harder to call this season, pre-game wise anyway.

Not playing the last game as I hate betting on both of these teams :pac:, but small lean on Giants +5. Very, very small lean that is.

Actually scratch that, leaning on Over 48.

JONJO THE MISER

On the under here.

Billy86

Barney92 wrote: »

Beckham was 40/1 or so a couple of weeks ago and I was going to go for that. Then I checked again a few days later and he was down to 17/1.

I think you missed a trick!!

Kharrell

Kharrell wrote: »

Not playing the last game as I hate betting on both of these teams :pac:, but small lean on Giants +5. Very, very small lean that is.

Actually scratch that, leaning on Over 48.

Ha, not a penny on either and both come in. Just one of them days. Hopefully MNF continues to be money.

skippymac6

Kharrell wrote: »

Maybe it's just me, but totals are so much harder to call this season, pre-game wise anyway.

Not playing the last game as I hate betting on both of these teams :pac:, but small lean on Giants +5. Very, very small lean that is.

Actually scratch that, leaning on Over 48.

I think teams are starting to tighten up and the unders is coming in a lot more. Teams aren't taking as many chances as they usually do and are running the ball a lot more.

Be interesting what over/under they set the GB vs NE game this week, my guess, unless it's absolutely baltic there, it will be +/- 57.5, maybe even 59.5.

Kharrell

Jets +3 and Saints -2.5 tonight.

skippymac6

Under 42 points in jets game
Saints -3
Flacco over 265.5 yards
Over 50.5 points in saints game

Billy86

Bills -2.5, 20/23

EDIT: also last minute bet on Flacco over 251.5 yards, 5/6.

matthew8

ATS picks so far for next week: Lions -7, Cowboys -3, 49ers -1.5, Colts -9.5, Chiefs +1.5, Patriots +3, Giants -2.5, Rams -7, Vikings -2.5, Cardinals -2.5, Bengals -3.5. No bets so far, will have a think about the Colts and Cardinals.

Billy86

Billy86 wrote: »

Bills -2.5, 20/23

EDIT: also last minute bet on Flacco over 251.5 yards, 5/6.

Haha, just checked and I had forgotten I actually had Bills -4.5 and over 33.5 points at 17/10 (€38)... got a nice surprise when I logged into my Paddy account!

Threw 12.5 on Saints -3.5 and over 49.5 total points at 15/8 just now.

Kharrell

Was due a bad Monday (much like the Saints were at home on primetime) after tearing it up in all but one previously. Caps my worst gameweek this season, bleh.

Onto a new gameweek anyway.

matthew8

Rest of the ATS, still no bets. Saints +5, Dolphins -6.5, Texans -6, Chargers +5.5, Browns +3.

skippymac6

Some Nice games for Thanksgiving tonight.

Under 47 points in Det vs Chi
Detroit -7
Cowboys -3
Under 40 points in SF vs Sea

matthew8

1 unit Cardinals win 1.8, 1 unit Bengals win 1.55, 1 unit Colts -9.5 1.92. Falcons are 0-7 outside of their division.

Bateman

I seem to like all the favourites today, and historical stats back up a trend of favs covering on Thanksgiving. There is probably something solid in this, relative to other trends, in that a better team is probably better equipped to handle a short week. But then when you factor in coaches on top of that trend, Detroit start to look less attractive.

I just have a funny feeling either the Lions offense is going to go nuts tonight, or else their defense is going to get opened up badly like they haven't been so far this season. So I think it could be a blowout in one direction or the other. Maybe an over bet on a "largest lead of the game" ...

UnitedIrishman

Liking the Lions -7 and also the unders in that game. Will do one or the other, probably the former. Think their defence could do a job on the Bears tonight who have looked poor enough all season.

Paully D

Bears +7.

They've let me down on the handicap every single time I've backed them this season, so hopefully that changes today!

2smiggy

for interest for the evening

detriot -6.5 @ 1.8
cowboys -3.5 @ 2.0
seattle moneyline @ 2.05

triple - €24.50 pays €180.81

eagle eye

Lions -7.5 at 1/1 seems like a great bet to me. I'm on that for a big chunk, expecting a big performance after the loss last week to the Patriots.

I backed Matt Forte to two tds at 12s for fun and its likely to happen if I'm going to lose the first bet. Its a small attempt at a cover bet that could win and my first bet can win too.

skippymac6

TD Bears on the 1st drive, great start to the unders and Det -7!!

Kharrell

On Bears myself, though I had to take them in-play which I'm already half regretting as my bet didn't process. Smh. I'll throw up a slip if it cashes.

On Cowboys -3 later.

Kharrell

Over 24 2H.

eagle eye

Just before the game I stuck a small bet on this one too.

eagle eye

Going on the Eagles straight in this one. Just can't see Romo being good enough against their D.

matthew8

Backing the Cowboys in play here to win at 3.1 (not going into log that's only for pre game bets).