NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Kharrell

Philly +6.5 2H and Under 30 2H.

eagle eye

Doubling up the Seahawks straight and over 40.5 in the late game to hopefully top off a very nice day.

Kharrell

49ers -1.5

Do or die.

eagle eye

Have a small bet on Marshawn for two tds @ 6/1, guy is due a big td haul after two blanks the last two weeks.

skippymac6

50% on the four last night but I got the Cowboys badly wrong. Very impressed with the Eagles but in that wacky NFC East it wouldn't surprise me if the Cowboys went into Phily in two weeks and knocked them off. I doubt the Cowboys Line can play that badly again.

Billy86

Going to try something a little different today since there's nothing I feel overly confident about, putting four €5 trebles on each permutation of Vikings -2.5 (5/6), Steelers -4 (10/11), Colts/Redskins over 50.5pts (20/21) and Browns/Bills under 42.5pts (20/21). They pay out at around €34-36 each and all 6pm games so should make for a bit of fun without having to pull my hair out like last week!

Put another €5 treble on Newton over 218.5 yards, Dalton over 234.5 and Stanton over 244.5 at just over 5/1.

Also have a €10 freebet I needed to use by the end of the day on Ravens, Steelers, Rams, Colts and Cardinals all to win at 5.5/1 because of PP's 20% bonus offer.

skippymac6

Browns +3
Ravens -6.5
Buccs +4

Singles and a treble

LuckyGent88

Went with just a straight up accumulator for the early games just for an interest in them.
Looking reasonable at the moment except for Cincinnati.
Gambled on buffalo though.

GBX

Steelers are breaking my heart here ... only team losing in an 8 team accumulator

LuckyGent88

GBX wrote: »

Steelers are breaking my heart here ... only team losing in an 8 team accumulator

We're the same with myself only for Giants imploding as well

GBX

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

We're the same with myself only for Giants imploding as well

Id imagine thats gonna be a ball breaker for many people.

Billy86

I'm just glad I did 4 trebles instead of the one €20 accumulator because of that, been screwed over by one team (typically Steelers or Bengals - never, ever again!) far too often.

Popped €20 on GB -1.5 and over 50.5 points. Complete coin toss of a game, just should make it even more tense.
EDIT: Also €10 on Cardinals to win at 9/4 after the TD and punt return score... and they get a pick!! Bit of a long shot but I like the value, Falcons are very sloppy.

Billy86

Question for any 'fourth quarter comebacks mean more than anything else' types... if the Ravens drive down and get a winning FG now, does it make Rivers' performance worse?

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Browns +3
Ravens -6.5
Buccs +4

Singles and a treble

Only the buccs came through. Bills scored two TDs in ten seconds to go up 14-3 and that was that. Hoyer was awful, Manziel should start next week. Chargers were down by double digits most of the game but have come back great

upandcumming

Fucking Ravens.

Paully D

upandcumming wrote: »

Fucking Ravens officials.

Tidied.

Billy86

€53 on Broncos to win 21/20

matthew8

1 unit Denver win 2.04. Had taken Chiefs ATS at +1.5 but have to like the Denver price.

D3PO

200 yoyo on Denver here. With no Eric Berry I think that seriously weakens the Kansas pass D. Granted hes one player but his overall importance in their scheme cannot be overstated.

Don't think Smith has the game to keep up with Peyton. very confident on this stake.

JONJO THE MISER

On denver here for 3 Pts.

Guffy

against the grain, Chiefs for the win. 2 points on the -1 for fun

UnitedIrishman

Had a small in running bet on Broncos -0.5 and under 49.5 at 15/8

matthew8

+7.18 with 56 staked. 46-36 ATS.

Early ATS for next week: Bears +3.5, Steelers +3.5, Texans -4, Giants +1, Saints -9.5, Lions -9.5, Redskins +2.5, Broncos -10, Raiders +7.5, Chargers +3.5, Packers -11.5. Considering Packers -11.5, Seahawks +2, Texans -4 and Broncos -10 as bets. Think the Falcons and Bills could find their defenses overwhelmed, and with Sanchez at the helm I fancy the Eagles offense as hot and cold. Jaguars shouldn't be scoring 2 defensive touchdowns this week.

UnitedIrishman

Dolphins -5 and over 33.5 points for me tonight at Evs. Think the Jets are in absolute freefall.

Billy86

Dolphins -6.5, 10/11

JONJO THE MISER

Small 2 pt bet on over 41.

matthew8

1 unit on each: Packers -11.5 1.95, Seahawks to win 2.02, Broncos -10 1.95. ATS: Ravens +3, Cardinals -1.5, Browns +4.

skippymac6

Fancy the Cowboys to come back tonight:
Cowboys -3
Over 51 pts
Murray over 118 yards

Early few for this Sunday:
Ravens money line
Giants money line
Steelers +3

Billy86

Over 51pts tonight.

UnitedIrishman

Did Forte first TD scorer and anytime TD scorer.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Fancy the Cowboys to come back tonight:
Cowboys -3
Over 51 pts
Murray over 118 yards

Early few for this Sunday:
Ravens money line
Giants money line
Steelers +3

A very rare decent TNF. The Bears are in all sorts of trouble. Doubt Trestman keeps his job for next year.

matthew8

ATS: Vikings -5.

Hulk Hands

I think ive found one for later. Hoyer under 255 passing yards @ 10/11. The line is right on the average of what he's done this year, and against a basic defence, i'd normally be put off. However the game is being played in very cold temps, which wont aid passing. Hoyer has also been very off color in recent weeks, so I suspect the Browns will go for a run first approach against a poor run D. Biggest factor though is that I simply think the Browns will only have to get 2 scores behind in the second half for Hoyer to be benched in favor of Manziel. The chance of that, however small, definitely skews things. This line is 30+ pts too high imo

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Fancy the Cowboys to come back tonight:
Cowboys -3
Over 51 pts
Murray over 118 yards

Early few for this Sunday:
Ravens money line
Giants money line
Steelers +3

Have a feeling that Ngata being out is going to hurt Baltimore a hell of a lot

UnitedIrishman

Threw the Saints -3 into an accumulator earlier. I really am a glutton for punishment. They've cost me a fortune this season.

eagle eye

Treble for me is my only bet of the night.

Seahawks -1 @ 10/11
49ers -11.5 @ 7/5
Patriots -11.5 @ 23/10

skippymac6

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Threw the Saints -3 into an accumulator earlier. I really am a glutton for punishment. They've cost me a fortune this season.

Same. Them and the Jets. I refuse to bet in their games anymore

eagle eye

skippymac6 wrote: »

Same. Them and the Jets. I refuse to bet in their games anymore

I've said it before, I just don't understand how people can bet on bad teams. They are at best unpredictable and its about how bad are they going to be on the day.

UnitedIrishman

eagle eye wrote: »

I've said it before, I just don't understand how people can bet on bad teams. They are at best unpredictable and its about how bad are they going to be on the day.

With regards the Saints, I think I'm just unwilling to accept they are as bad as they are. I mean their record could be better - especially those two opening games when they lost to the Falcons and Browns. They've lost 5 games by a score or less including a few by a field goal. Brees has a fantastic record at home too so me including them -3 in an accum wasn't beyond the realms of possibility (especially against the Panthers who have been shocking).

That said I won't be trusting them again this season with that awful awful defence.

skippymac6

eagle eye wrote: »

I've said it before, I just don't understand how people can bet on bad teams. They are at best unpredictable and its about how bad are they going to be on the day.

Ah I cut my ties a few weeks back with the above so I didn't get the brunt of it this week or last week (even though the saints covered last week). To be fair, if someone had given me a tenner to put on the saints or panthers covering today I would have taken the saints though as the panthers have looked awful too and the saints man handled them in Carolina earlier in the year

JONJO THE MISER

Huge bet on Pats tonight.

JaMarcusHustle

What's the spread tonight?

matthew8

Early ATS for next week: Cardinals +3.5, Chiefs -10.5, Ravens -13.5, Colts -6.5, Bengals -1.5, Patriots -7.5, Buccaneers +5, Redskins +6.5, Titans +1, Broncos -3.5, Seahawks -9.5, Cowboys +3.5. Patriots and Titans potential bets.

Running Balance

Ryan to throw under 260 tonight against the packers.. Its gonna be freezing there!!

matthew8

+6.2 59 staked 56-43 ATS. Those big handicaps would drive you insane, both Packers and Broncos were 2 scores ahead of the cap and gave up cheap scores. 1 unit Titans win 2.09, 1 unit Patriots -7.5 1.98.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

+6.2 59 staked 56-43 ATS. Those big handicaps would drive you insane, both Packers and Broncos were 2 scores ahead of the cap and gave up cheap scores. 1 unit Titans win 2.09, 1 unit Patriots -7.5 1.98.

Ah those big handicaps are a nightmare, teams just take their foot off the gas late and try and run the clock down while the other side keep taking chances.

Massive screw up from me there last week. Saw the odds for MVP were:
Rodgers 10/11
Manning 7/2
Watt 4/1

Was convinced that Rodgers was going to get it and planned on putting a fair amount on it. Forgot about it and was trying to back it on Sunday but the market was suspended. Now the odds are:
Rodgers 1/5
Brady 8/1
Watt 13/1

The only way Rodgers doesn't win it is if the Packers lose the last regular seson game to Detroit to slip to the 5 seed and he plays awful. Even then most of the votes may be cast (I'm not sure when the vote is taken to be honest). Brady and the patriots will win out and he'll finish 2nd or 3rd with Watt in the other position that Brady doesn't fill.

Hulk Hands

Had a great run with the vastly overpriced bet on Luck but unfortunately Rodgers is going to prove too good. The odds are still skewed a bit, it's about 1/7 Rodgers, 8/1 Watt and 66's Luck. Nobody else has a hope. I'd assume they'll go MVP Rodgers, DPOY Watt and OPOY Luck

ionadnapokot

After the Steelers demolition of the Bengals last wk, im going to put a euro on the Bengals this wk....to win the Super Bowl! Well not quite. Every yr, around this time, a group of us try and pick a long shot(+40s), and see who's selection goes the farthest.
I reckon the Bengals can squeak into the PO if they win 1 from: @Browns, vBroncos, @Steelers

I would welcome any comments you have for a bit of craic ! Or any alternative suggestions?

Billy86

ionadnapokot wrote: »

After the Steelers demolition of the Bengals last wk, im going to put a euro on the Bengals this wk....to win the Super Bowl! Well not quite. Every yr, around this time, a group of us try and pick a long shot(+40s), and see who's selection goes the farthest.
I reckon the Bengals can squeak into the PO if they win 1 from: @Browns, vBroncos, @Steelers

I would welcome any comments you have for a bit of craic ! Or any alternative suggestions?

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Hulk Hands

Billy86 wrote: »

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Yeah hard to argue against Murray. Very interesting to see if he gets to 2k. Just think Luck has been amazing, will go close to breaking the passing record, will break the record for yards from scrimmage and on course for 48 total TD's. Does have a fair few turnovers but not sure you can put some of the fumbles on him, especially playing behind that OL. He's lucky he hasnt been decapitated this year