NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

skippymac6

Billy86 wrote: »

Falcons, 66/1 on PP, if they win the division (currently top) they get a home playoff game and also have a bit of momentum.

As for Luck, he probably is the front runner for OPOTY but I think Murray deserves it more - the standout in his position this year by a distance, and Luck is on pace for 23 turnovers which is just way, way, way too much (he is currently on 19).

Best SB bet at the minute has to be the Ravens at 33/1. They have the Jags at home this week, followed by the Texans in Houston. The Texans play Indy this week in Indy so their playoff hopes will be extinguished by next week. They finish the regular season at home to the Browns who will be playing for nothing at that stage. I'd be very surprised if they don't win out.

That should give them the division as the Bengals have to go to Pittsburgh and host the Broncos and the Steelers have the Bengals obv, go to Atlanta and have the Chiefs at home too. The Ravens offensive line is either the best or second best in the league when healthy (along with Dallas of course), has a great run game and a Superbowl winning QB. Added to that they beat Denver and New England away from home in that SB run two years ago and they won't fear going in there at all. They will have to play 3 playoff games to reach the SB but I think they're worth a squeak at those odds.

*sorry read wrong, didn't notice you needed a 40/1 or bigger shot! Maybe you could make an exception

Billy86

Ah yeah, I was just looking at 40/1+ bets as ionadnapokot was looking for.

I reckon the Texans could easily beat the Ravens, though. And if the Colts play like they have for 3 of the last 4 weeks, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Texans beat them too (though far less likely of course).

ionadnapokot

skippymac6 wrote: »

Best SB bet at the minute has to be the Ravens at 33/1. They have the Jags at home this week, followed by the Texans in Houston. The Texans play Indy this week in Indy so their playoff hopes will be extinguished by next week. They finish the regular season at home to the Browns who will be playing for nothing at that stage. I'd be very surprised if they don't win out.

That should give them the division as the Bengals have to go to Pittsburgh and host the Broncos and the Steelers have the Bengals obv, go to Atlanta and have the Chiefs at home too. The Ravens offensive line is either the best or second best in the league when healthy (along with Dallas of course), has a great run game and a Superbowl winning QB. Added to that they beat Denver and New England away from home in that SB run two years ago and they won't fear going in there at all. They will have to play 3 playoff games to reach the SB but I think they're worth a squeak at those odds.

*sorry read wrong, didn't notice you needed a 40/1 or bigger shot! Maybe you could make an exception

No! Rules are rules. wont be let away with that one!
Good shout though. But what if Texans beat the Colts!!! Texans are 220's. J.J Watt...mmmm

skippymac6

ionadnapokot wrote: »

No! Rules are rules. wont be let away with that one!
Good shout though. But what if Texans beat the Colts!!! Texans are 220's. J.J Watt...mmmm

Haha fair enough! Yes JJ is awesome but Ryan Fitzpatrick hoisting the Lombardi trophy aloft come Feb? Stranger things and all that but that would be one for the ages!

matthew8

1 unit Cardinals win 2.7. Love that bet, think a win is likely.

ionadnapokot

skippymac6 wrote: »

Haha fair enough! Yes JJ is awesome but Ryan Fitzpatrick hoisting the Lombardi trophy aloft come Feb? Stranger things and all that but that would be one for the ages!

fyi: we have now nailed our colours to the mast. (>40/1 Super Bowl odds)
Bengals
Texans (I was beaten 2 the Bengals..& I have a feelin about Houston. Watt?)
Saints
Chargers

skippymac6

Thursday night football:
Rams -5
Under 40.5 points

Onecoolcookie

Wasn't expecting to see that spread for tonight's game, surely there has to be some value in the Cardinals?

Although this stat tempers my enthusiasm a bit "Cardinals have lost 11 consecutive Thursday games dating back to 1950, the longest streak in NFL history".

eagle eye

Rams are on the upswing at the minute and are still not totally out of contention for a playoff spot although its highly unlikely. I just don't like the Cards with their QB problems and expect an easy win for the Rams.

Going with Rams -9.5 @ 33/20

Billy86

Took a small bet on Rams -2.5 and over 40.5 points at 7/4. Reckon both are a bit of a coin toss, so just putting the bet on to make the match more interesting.

matthew8

You're getting 3.18 on the Cardinals now, I thought the 2.7 was value. They've shown before that a lack of a quarterback hasn't made much difference. Only 3 losses this year and 2 of them were away to Denver and Seattle, 2 of the toughest games in football. The only game they've had a decent chance in that they've lost was against Atlanta. The Rams have been in great form since going to San Fran and the Cardinals are the only side who managed to beat them in that stretch without an extremely dubious refereeing call. There's also the Bruce Arians factor, maybe the best coach in the league right now.

Guffy

Can't believe i stayed up for that. One of lads had a fiver on no td's at 100/1... pr1ck

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Thursday night football:
Rams -5
Under 40.5 points

Fancied the unders strongly but the Rams were poor. Really don't like when coaches don't go for it on 4th and very short which Fisher did time and again. Really baffling especially when if you're really honest, they were out of playoff contention anyway, why not just go for it. Cardinals will struggle though if Stanton isn't able to get back for the playoffs.

matthew8

ATS picks: Steelers -1.5, Bears +3.

matthew8

1 unit Bengals win 2.2.

Billy86

Just some small ones for the early games: Manziel over 212.5 passing yards, Jake Locker over 216.5 passing yards, Derek Anderson over 217.5 passing yards, Fitzpatrick over 226.5 passing yards.

Four €5 trebles on each combo of them (€30.80 return each) and a €5 accumulator on all four (€56.50 return) - €180 return if they all come off.

Also €20 on Eagles -3.5 in the late game at 21/20, and €10 on Steelers -3 at evens as soon as I heard Julio Jones is not playing. I put that last one on the moment it came up on my phone though before the line could change and am having buyer's remorse... told myself I wouldn't put another penny on the Steelers again all season since they've been so insanely unpredictable.

matthew8

ATS: Lions -8.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

1 unit Bengals win 2.2.

Good shout. Poor auld Johnny had a tough day at the office

matthew8

+9.08, 63 staked. 65-47 ATS. Early ATS: Jaguars -3, 49ers -2.5, Vikings +7, Packers -10.5, Chiefs +3.5, Rams -5, Patriots -10.5, Raiders +5.5, Cardinals +7.5 and Bengals +3. Chiefs and Cardinals the ones tempting me right now. Will very likely take Chiefs but it will take some guts to back Lindley vs. the Seahawks. I just think Arians/Bowles are so good though they can make it work.

Hulk Hands

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Backed the 49ers under 10.5 wins at 10/11. This line has moved in the US and Asia in favour of the unders but the UK bookies haven't reacted yet. Backed them at 5/2 not to make the playoffs also, should be about 4/7 yes 7/4 no

YAYY! As long as the Rams don't win their last two and the under 7.5 gets up with them also, i'll be a happy camper.

matthew8

ATS: Redskins +7.5, Bears +8, Falcons +6, Ravens -5, Cowboys -3. Bets: 49ers win 1.91, Cardinals win 4.01, Chiefs win 2.4 1 unit each.

Bateman

Anyone else fancy the Jags tonight? If you have two similarly poor teams, but one is still trying and one isn't, do you take the one who is still playing hard and gets things right on the defensive side of the ball every now and again? Or do you try not to factor in these so-called "intangibles"?

Billy86

Bateman wrote: »

Anyone else fancy the Jags tonight? If you have two similarly poor teams, but one is still trying and one isn't, do you take the one who is still playing hard and gets things right on the defensive side of the ball every now and again? Or do you try not to factor in these so-called "intangibles"?

I reckon they'll win, but don't know if it's worth the price with them at -3.5, it's really a matter of which is the less Godawful team. Same for the over/under, I can't tell the the Jags offense is less terrible than the Titans offense or not and vice-versa. This one, like the Jets-Titans match, really has a "who will lose by less" feel to it. I have a weird feeling there might be a bit of entertainment in the game, but the overall standard is sure to be pure dreck.

Bateman

Yeah giving it a swerve myself, not playing Jags at more than a FG

UnitedIrishman

I remember having a bet on a Raiders vs. Jags game a couple years ago, if I can offer a bit of advice - don't do it. It's not worth the torture. I was lucky enough that my bet won but watching Blaine Gabbert/Chad Henne and Carson Palmer battle it out wasn't the most fun way to make a few quid. Think Henne had something like 40 yards in the second half and one 3rd down completion and yet they were still in with a chance at the end - was nuts.

ChicagoJoe

Seahawks looking good, very good. They seem to have the momentum with them like last year, big test against the Cardinals though. I think the Hawks thank the Cards for keeping their spot atop the NFC West warm for them all season, and reclaim the division. Things might have gone quite differently if the Cards had Palmer at Qb, but you never know with Carson.

matthew8

ATS: Browns +3.5.

skippymac6

One I fancy tonight is Mark Sanchez over 265 yards. Washington has a great rush defence but their pass defence is a bit suspect and they are missing pass rusher Jason Hatcher and inside linebacker Keenan Robinson. In their first meeting too, McCoy could get nothing going and think Sanchez will have some success this week.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

One I fancy tonight is Mark Sanchez over 265 yards. Washington has a great rush defence but their pass defence is a bit suspect and they are missing pass rusher Jason Hatcher and inside linebacker Keenan Robinson. In their first meeting too, McCoy could get nothing going and think Sanchez will have some success this week.

Well over 300 yards for Sparky

skippymac6

Couple of bets for the early games:
Ravens -5
Packers -10.5
Jets +10.5

matthew8

matthew8 wrote: »

ATS: Redskins +7.5, Bears +8, Falcons +6, Ravens -5, Cowboys -3. Bets: 49ers win 1.91, Cardinals win 4.01, Chiefs win 2.4 1 unit each.

Shocking week on the bets, Cardinals and Chiefs especially poor ones, +6.08 with 66 staked and 75-55 ATS. ATS this week: Packers -7.5, Texans -10, Panthers +4, Bears +6.5, Chiefs -2.5, Eagles +2.5, Dolphins -6, Seahawks -13, Cardinals +6.

matthew8

ATS: Broncos -14, Redskins +6, Patriots +5, Bengals +3.5.

SameOleJay

I'm taking the Redskins at 11/5 on the nose.

Dallas have next to no benefit playing the starters all game. Haslett nearly had Romo killed last time out with the blitz packages.

And most of all, the skins and RGIII are giving it everything to finish things on a high.

Bateman

Also fancy Washington for that game, but I'd almost fancy them either way regardless of who Dallas decides to start or not.

Alex Smith is out of Sunday's game with a ruptured spleen. I managed to grab some points on San Diego and also managed to back them to win the game at a fancy price. It'll make up for the Ravens Super Bowl outright ticket I have because once the Chargers win, the Ravens won't be going to the playoffs.

matthew8

ATS: Ravens -13.5, Colts -7 and Saints -4.

JaMarcusHustle

Going to allow my love for Conner Shaw at South Carolina to influence some off-the-wall bets today to spend some Christmas money.

€5 on First TD @ 40/1
€5 on Last TD @ 40/1
€10 on Anytime TD @ 9/1
€2.50 on 2 TDs or More @ 90/1
€1 on 3 TDs or More @ 190/1
€5 on Over 183.5 Passing Yards @ 5/6

Paully D

Chargers ML.

skippymac6

The Cowboys and Colts are pretty much both guaranteed to get the 4th seed in their conferences so I think they'll rest their players in the second half. With that in mind I'm doing a double of redskins +6 & titans +7.5.
Also singles on:
Giants -1
Chargers +3

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

The Cowboys and Colts are pretty much both guaranteed to get the 4th seed in their conferences so I think they'll rest their players in the second half. With that in mind I'm doing a double of redskins +6 & titans +7.5.
Also singles on:
Giants -1
Chargers +3

Why bother on week 17!!??

Paully D

Paully D wrote: »

Chargers ML.

Rarely been as pleased to lose a bet.

JONJO THE MISER

Very profitable regular season, especially last 4 weeks, up over 16% overall.

Onecoolcookie

Small wager on Lions to win the NFC at 33/1

Stranger things have happened. I think they'll be able to stop DeMarco Murray and IMO they probably match up best against the Seahawks of any team left in the playoffs.

Billy86

On the Ravens tonight at 25/17 with Leveon Bell out,was going to back the Panthers too but by the time I could get post Christmas money in my account the line had moved too much. Still might put a small wager on them closer to kick off though.

skippymac6

Under 38 points in Carolina vs arizona. Both teams will look to establish the run and "shorten" the game.
Big Ben over 300 yards passing. With no Bell and Ngata back for the ravens from suspension, the steelers will struggle to get any joy on the ground. If the steelers are to move the ball well, it will be on the back of Ben and Brown

Neil3030

Taking a double - cowboys and colts outirght, ~12/1

skippymac6

Thought Murray over 90 yards would be a cert but Packers D holding up well against the rush so far.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Taking a double - cowboys and colts outirght, ~12/1

That f**king overrulling!!

skippymac6

Neil3030 wrote: »

That f**king overrulling!!

Very unlucky.

Next game:
Andrew Luck over 42.5 pass attempts
Andrew Luck over 301 yards
Emmanuel Sanders over 78 yards

matthew8

Who are we all backing for the SB? Pinnacle had the match priced up before Pats game finished so I backed them then at 2.33 (no bet if they lost Colts match) but they've shortened significantly to be slight favourites.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Who are we all backing for the SB? Pinnacle had the match priced up before Pats game finished so I backed them then at 2.33 (no bet if they lost Colts match) but they've shortened significantly to be slight favourites.

You'd have to imagine that the money will come for the Patriots from the casual fan (like last year on the Broncos) and I'd say the 10/11 will go down to about 5/6, maybe 4/5 closer to kick off.

It's a cliche but it really seems like a close one but I have this nagging feeling that Brady won't (or surely can't) lose three SB's in a row, so slightly leaning towards the pats...