NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

JaMarcusHustle

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't get why people have a problem with 'aftertiming'. What's the issue with it?

Knew you'd take issue with that. Got 5/1 at Boyles that you'd say that and I bet a month's wages on it. Sorted for Christmas.

After timing is ridiculous. It serves no point whatsoever. At least if you put up your bets before hand, it generates discussion. If you don't have the balls to put your picks up before the point, then you shouldn't be able to gloat about them afterwards.

eagle eye

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Knew you'd take issue with that. Got 5/1 at Boyles that you'd say that and I bet a month's wages on it. Sorted for Christmas.

After timing is ridiculous. It serves no point whatsoever. At least if you put up your bets before hand, it generates discussion. If you don't have the balls to put your picks up before the point, then you shouldn't be able to gloat about them afterwards.

Its easy to ignore and sometimes you get genuine people who just want to share a big win.

If there is somebody at it on a regular basis the ignore feature is your friend if it irks you.

I personally don't have a problem with it and I don't understand how anybody else does. The purpose it serves is that somebody can share the news of his good fortune with others or even gloat about it. I don't see the big deal in people being allowed to do that.

There are lots of people out there who watch games and wouldn't have time to put their bets up before the game.

I'm not one who puts them up afterwards, I do put my bets up beforehand and its interesting to read others thoughts on it.

I think as long as its in the betting thread its fine. I think if they put up their bets, before or after, in other threads then I'd have a problem with it.

matthew8

Broncos -7.5 2.0 1 unit.

Paully D

Steelers (-6) @ Jaguars
Broncos (-7.5) vs Cardinals
Giants (-4) vs Falcons

PokeHerKing

Steelers -6.5
Cheifs +5
Houston +6.5

Billy86

Pretty tough week for bets I think. Have a tenner kn each of the following, all at 5/6:

Cutler over 250.5 passing yards (Panthers)
Newton over 244.5 passing yards (Bears)
Marques Colston over 52.5 receiving yards (Bucs)
Eddie Royal over 58.5 receiving yards (Jets)

UnitedIrishman

Fancy Brees to have a big day today. Going for over 307.5 yards passing against a poor Bucs pass defense.

Others I like:
Seattle - 7, Giants -4.5, Browns -1 and Broncos -7.

Hate going for all sides favoured by a few points and no doubt some opposition will definitely cover - more than likely the Titans.

Billy86

Popped another tenner on a tenner on a 6.6/1 treble:

Lions -5.0 vs Bills (right before Megatron was announced active), 10/11
Saints to win and over 48.5pts vs Bucs, evens
Bears/Panthers over 47.5 total points, evens.

skippymac6

Colts -2.5
Broncos -7
Bills +5
Saints -10

padraig_f

I got Bears +3 @ Panthers, and Ravens +3 @ Colts.

Had an idea to bet the Bengals -1 @ Patriots this morning and had to go out. Came back and see it's been pounded to virtually -3 now, so missed the value.

JONJO THE MISER

I have Dallas -6 for 5 pts, NY giants -5 for 4 Pts and under 48 pts in the phillly game for 5 Pts.

Deco99

What happens when 2 teams win and the third is the titans+1? They lost by 1.

shamrock55

Thanks detroit i had 250 notes in the bag till you decided to fcukin implode:mad:

matthew8

Deco99 wrote: »

What happens when 2 teams win and the third is the titans+1? They lost by 1.

That's a push, ie no bet and you win the double.

Billy86

Deco99 wrote: »

What happens when 2 teams win and the third is the titans+1? They lost by 1.

You should get paid out as if it were a double and the Titans game never happened I think.

Won on all my yards bets so far (Newton, Cutler, Colston)... ****ing Lions cost me on the 6.6/1 treble.

skippymac6

Deco99 wrote: »

What happens when 2 teams win and the third is the titans+1? They lost by 1.

That result is just "pushed" so that bet becomes void if it was in a multiple. You should just win your bet with less returns.

skippymac6

2/3 on the early games as the saints made hard work of it.

Feel the jets have a decent game in them so going +7 in that one and 49rs still look a bit all over the shop so taking chiefs +4.5. Have the broncos -7 from earlier.

PokeHerKing

Pats by 7-12 points

Billy86

Lost out on Malcolm Floyd... needed 59+ yards, he had 40 after only a little into the second quarter but the Jets were so awful that I honestly don't think the Chargers passed the ball once in the whole se on half. There was no need to.

Have Lafell over 41.5 yards and Dalton over 238.5 for the late game.

padraig_f

padraig_f wrote: »

I got Bears +3 @ Panthers, and Ravens +3 @ Colts.

I suck this season.

JONJO THE MISER

Any thoughts on the late game, have not had time to study it,just looking for small interest bet.

CriticEyes

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Any thoughts on the late game, have not had time to study it,just looking for small interest bet.

I'm on:


Giovani Bernard (CIN Bengals) 1st touchdown @13/2.

Andy Dalton (CIN Bengals) - Over 245.5 (passing yards) @ 10/13.

Giovani Bernard Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ 5/6.

Bengals -2.5 @ 20/23

JONJO THE MISER

went for cinny -4 at 2.49 for 2 pints for a small inetest while getting pissed.

UnitedIrishman

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Fancy Brees to have a big day today. Going for over 307.5 yards passing against a poor Bucs pass defense.

Others I like:
Seattle - 7, Giants -4.5, Browns -1 and Broncos -7.

Hate going for all sides favoured by a few points and no doubt some opposition will definitely cover - more than likely the Titans.

Win on Brees, a push and two wins and hoping for a win with Seattle.

In another note, Bet365 seemed to have copped on to any bonus they give and any under/over market combined with alternative spread at the same time. God they were good times

PokeHerKing

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Steelers -6.5
Cheifs +5
Houston +6.5

Cheifs was a push but still a few quid back. Should have put the house on the pats, backed them by 7-12 points because paddy wasn't offering there usual alternative handicap market but had a feeling they'd come out all guns blazing. Didnt think it would be that big a margin though!

Whats the thinking on tonights game, will Seattle cover?

Bateman

Tough weekend - went with the dogs and got stung on the lower number (5.5) on the Rams, and lost on the Jets and Cardinals. Also had over 50.5 in the Giants game. If I had bet the Rams+ and Giants over lines even as late as Saturday, I'd have won both. Fancied a big bet on the Pats and then left it. Typical.

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Colts -2.5
Broncos -7
Bills +5
Saints -10

Should have left it at this! Chiefs +4.5 lost out by a half a point and the less said about the Jets the better!

Few late moves this weekend that went the punters way. Bills went from +7 to +4.5/+5, Browns went from +2 to -1 and Texans went from +6.5 to +4 all pretty much from Sunday morning to game time. Two gambles that went astray were the Rams (+7 to +4) and Bears (+3 to virtually a scratch game).

Not sure about tonight's game at all. You'd have to think that the Hawks will take care of business but teams that play at home after getting creamed the previous week normally bounce back somewhat. Happened to the Panthers this week after the Ravens hammered them and obvioulsy the patriots last night after their dismal showing against the Chiefs. You'd still expect the Hawks to cover but that extra half point at 7.5 makes it that little bit riskier.

Bateman

I hate backing favs at 7.5, wouldn't dream of doing it tonight. Not a very appealing game for me, either to watch or bet

matthew8

Line moved so Seahawks -6.5 1.91 1 unit.

kryogen

I would back the Skins +7 and over 45.5 pts if I was having a bet,(well I kinda do I suppose, waiting on the overs for a double) but won't be touching the game line/spread market.

I like Wilson to be under 233.5 passing yards, he has only gone over that 6 times in his 19 regular season games and Seattle will be run heavy tonight I think, especially if they get out to a lead.

A safe looking bet is Wilson over 1.5 Td passes but the odds are short enough, it was -160 when I checked earlier....

Seahwaks to win both halves is another one I would lean toward

eagle eye

Maybe I'm gone a bit looney but I can't see any way that the Redskins are even close to the Seahawks in this one.

Skins beat a pathetic Jags team and have lost to a pathetic Texans. They also lost to the Giants and that close call with the Eagles doesn't look so good now after their outings since then. The Eagles nearly lost last night to the Rams and looked awful against the 49ers.

So basically I think the Redskins are horrendous and this Seahawks team if for me the favourites to win it all and they are coming off a bye week. You know that Pete Carroll will have them firing on all cylinders tonight.

I'm taking them -13/5 @ 9/4 and I think its a fantastic bet.

As I said maybe I'm gone a bit looney.

shamrock55

Ive gone for desean jackson anytime td @19/10

kryogen

eagle eye wrote: »

Maybe I'm gone a bit looney but I can't see any way that the Redskins are even close to the Seahawks in this one.

Skins beat a pathetic Jags team and have lost to a pathetic Texans. They also lost to the Giants and that close call with the Eagles doesn't look so good now after their outings since then. The Eagles nearly lost last night to the Rams and looked awful against the 49ers.

So basically I think the Redskins are horrendous and this Seahawks team if for me the favourites to win it all and they are coming off a bye week. You know that Pete Carroll will have them firing on all cylinders tonight.

I'm taking them -13/5 @ 9/4 and I think its a fantastic bet.

As I said maybe I'm gone a bit looney.

Historically the stats don't back that up

I have gone with the stats and patterns for why I think it will be close, historically, when the Skins have been given such a big head start at home even when they lose they tend to cover the spread.

Coming off a bye has not been great for Pete generally

The skins have been awful in places, but even a little dead cat bounce wouldnt be that surprising, the Hawks are a different animal on the road also

As I said, when it comes to putting my money where my mouth is, I just cant have a bet on the line, just some props. Hoping to be in bed anyway!

shamrock55

shamrock55 wrote: »

Ive gone for desean jackson anytime td @19/10

Yay:D

kryogen

kryogen wrote: »

I would back the Skins +7 and over 45.5 pts if I was having a bet,(well I kinda do I suppose, waiting on the overs for a double) but won't be touching the game line/spread market.

I like Wilson to be under 233.5 passing yards, he has only gone over that 6 times in his 19 regular season games and Seattle will be run heavy tonight I think, especially if they get out to a lead.

A safe looking bet is Wilson over 1.5 Td passes but the odds are short enough, it was -160 when I checked earlier....

Seahwaks to win both halves is another one I would lean toward

Wilson went under 234 again, just managed over 200, one to watch that, he is now after going over 233.5 6 times in 20 games

He also got over 1.5 passing tds

Hawks did not win both halves, drawing the second half and obviously the Skins +7 failed and the overs went against trend too.

What I take from it is to keep looking at Wilson and props for his passing yardage

UnitedIrishman

An early look at next weeks lines and they look hard to call. Plenty of games with only a field goal between them. Was planning on backing the Bengals but at -7 I think that's a bit much.

Struggling to find much else at the minute.

JaMarcusHustle

I like the Steelers +2 against the Browns. I think it's a reaction to them not covering versus Tampa Bay or Jacksonville, but the Steelers rarely lose to the Browns and Roethlisberger is 18-1 against them. The Browns' games this year have all been really tight affairs - Lost by 3, Won by 2, Lost by 2, Won by 1. Think I'll go with Steelers ML for this one.

skippymac6

Two unfashionable ones that the gut not the head says are the Buccs +3 at home to the Ravens and the Bills +3 at home to the Pats appeal to me a bit. The Ravens were fairly poor last week and the Buccs seem to have found some consistency without McCown. Bills are a very talented team and will be full of confidence after last week's win. The pats usually feed on the Bills however so as I said, it's gut more than the head telling me!

matthew8

+5.35 with 21 staked now, only like the look of the Seahawks -8 this week, maybe a bet on Chargers or Broncos but probably not.

PokeHerKing

Im liking the fins +3.5 and eagles -2.5, maybe texans +3

TechnoPool

Oct 6, 2014
10:05 PM
Combination
San Diego at Oakland (Alternate Spread)
San Diego -3 1.43 Open

Oakland are terrible, little to no offense and SD are red hot right now. Ride them while you can.


Green Bay at Miami (Alternate Spread)
Green Bay +2.50 1.32 Open

GB is vulnerable against the run, Miller is their go to guy on the ground. I expect a close game but Rodgers to come out on top of it. Nice weather will allow him to pass the ball freely.


Denver at NY Jets (Alternate Spread)
Denver -5 1.47 Open

Jets are terrible, Smith is having a stinker and Vick is no better. Denver are a passing team and the Jets have a woeful secondary. Expect a blowout here.


Indianapolis at Houston (Alternate Spread)
Indianapolis +3 1.36 Open

I expect this to be a tough game. Very close with luck being able to pull it out of the bag having better vision and mobility than his opposing QB.

10$ on this pay 40$



Also have 100$ on Denver and San Diego just to win outright, pays 158$

JaMarcusHustle

TechnoPool wrote: »

Oct 6, 2014
10:05 PM
Combination
San Diego at Oakland (Alternate Spread)
San Diego -3 1.43 Open

Oakland are terrible, little to no offense and SD are red hot right now. Ride them while you can.

This bet implies you have more faith in the Raiders than the bookies do - is that your intention?

JaMarcusHustle

AJ Green unlikely to play at the weekend. Bengals are still -7 so I'm getting on the Panthers.

TechnoPool

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

This bet implies you have more faith in the Raiders than the bookies do - is that your intention?

shorted the odds in favor to a spread I feel more comfortable with.

Its somewhat of a rivalry game that teams like Oakland can get up for with a new coach.

UnitedIrishman

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

AJ Green unlikely to play at the weekend. Bengals are still -7 so I'm getting on the Panthers.

Have to say I agree with you. Thought the bookies would swing back towards underestimating the Bengals after the Pats loss but initially thought 7 points was far too much to be backing them with. And if Green is out then 7 points is a nice lot to have with the Panthers.

skippymac6

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

AJ Green unlikely to play at the weekend. Bengals are still -7 so I'm getting on the Panthers.

I'm going to hold off on this just a bit longer to see if Carolina get a few lads back. Thomas Davis, Johnathon Stewart and Deangelo Williams and Greg Olsen haven't practiced this week and the first three missed last week's game.

Burfect, Marvin Jones, Green and Maualuga all didn't practice this week either for the Bengals. The one thing I'd be worried about is the two hidings the AFC North teams have delivered to Carolina this year. Also, would they have won last week if Cutler wasn't so giving with his turnovers? You have to think the Bengals will be fired up after getting pasted by the Pats too. Might be a game I swerve I think.

eagle eye

skippymac6 wrote: »

I'm going to hold off on this just a bit longer to see if Carolina get a few lads back. Thomas Davis, Johnathon Stewart and Deangelo Williams and Greg Olsen haven't practiced this week and the first three missed last week's game.

Burfect, Marvin Jones, Green and Maualuga all didn't practice this week either for the Bengals. The one thing I'd be worried about is the two hidings the AFC North teams have delivered to Carolina this year. Also, would they have won last week if Cutler wasn't so giving with his turnovers? You have to think the Bengals will be fired up after getting pasted by the Pats too. Might be a game I swerve I think.

I'm in agreement with you. Green was a limited participant in practice so its not certain he will miss the game.

Even if he does I still think they are a real good team. I'd just dismiss the performance against the Pats for now. If they have another bad game then its time to start wondering but like yourself I think its a game to avoid.

padraig_f

Going with the Texans straight up tonight @ 2.22.

I think the Colts are a bit overrated, open the ESPN stats page and you see Andrew Luck's face at the top, #1 in passing yards. But this is a bit illusory, it's only because they have the most pass-attempts in the league. Look at yards-per-pass-attempt, a better measure of efficiency, and they're only 15th:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt

I also usually like the home team on Thursday night, who effectively have an extra day on the short week by not having to travel.

Thursday night games are usually divisional games, presumably to reduce travel. But Indianapolis to Houston must be about the longest divisional travel distance, google tells me it's 1,000 miles between the two cities.

It's Thursday Night Football, who knows what the **** happens, but I'm going with the home dog.

JaMarcusHustle

padraig_f wrote: »

Thursday night games It's Thursday Night Football, who knows what the **** happens, but I'm going with the home dog.

Someone will win by 20+, it's just a case of figuring out who!

PokeHerKing

Jets +10 anyone?