NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

kryogen

I like the Texans, but not sure what I am going to do yet

Edit: I would echo the sentiments of those who say to avoid the Bengals/Pathers game also, right now anyway. If more info is coming before kick off maybe but right now I wouldn't touch the game

TechnoPool

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Jets +10 anyone?

Negative

Hulk Hands

Anyone looking to rob a bit of value on the Colts tonight, the general line is -2.5 5/6. Yet Hills have messed up somewhere and are -1.5 20/23. Wasn't going to bet at all tonight as the line is fine now Houston have shortened, but if theyre going to shove ricks in my face ill have to! I think the home dogs stat may be offset by Houston having a tough overtime loss on Sunday compared to the Colts wacky, but rather comfortable win. Luck for MVP at 12s is still a steal.

Going to have a speculative punt at 30/1 also on the colts 25+ first half winning margin. It's happened twice already this year on Thursday nights. I considered the same bet on Texans at 45's but I dont think their offense could put that up in the case of a colts collapse.

skippymac6

Under 47 points for me

eagle eye

TY Hilton doesn't get many tds but he has 4 career tds in two games at Reliant Stadium(or whatever its called now).

He is 11/8 for a td anytime tonight and I just have to have some of that.

upandcumming

Might have a nibble on Colts 1st quarter winner. 6/5

UnitedIrishman

Gone for a small interest double on the Colts (moneyline) and the overs. Got a feeling Luck will get it done tonight.

JONJO THE MISER

A lot of mind games going on with the betting on this game, the books and vegas want us to second guess.
I know when i see mind games and false markets and this one sure stinks.
Indy -4.5 pts at 2.540 for my max 5 pts and take it to the bank boys.

Hulk Hands

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

A lot of mind games going on with the betting on this game, the books and vegas want us to second guess.
I know when i see mind games and false markets and this one sure stinks.
Indy -4.5 pts at 2.540 for my max 5 pts and take it to the bank boys.

How are they playing mind games and what false markets?

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

TY Hilton doesn't get many tds but he has 4 career tds in two games at Reliant Stadium(or whatever its called now).

He is 11/8 for a td anytime tonight and I just have to have some of that.

:cool:

Ugh, maybe not

Hulk Hands

You could be very unlucky here EE

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

How are they playing mind games and what false markets?

Vegas set the opening odds each week, the dog has only won once so far this season on TNF, the fav has won every other week.
Most gamblers think hey there is something up here as the fav is only -2.5 ats when they should be more, but in fact the books done this on purpose to make people 2nd guess and put less on the fav and also steer more people towards the dog.
Classic vegas trap game tonight, the fav wins by a lot more than 2.5.

UnitedIrishman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You could be very unlucky here EE

That is very unlucky in fairness. Brushed his knee off him.

JONJO THE MISER

Lovely start.

Hulk Hands

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Vegas set the opening odds each week, the dog has only won once so far this season on TNF, the fav has won every other week.
Most gamblers think hey there is something up here as the fav is only -2.5 ats when they should be more, but in fact the books done this on purpose to make people 2nd guess and put less on the fav and also steer more people towards the dog.
Classic vegas trap game tonight, the fav wins by a lot more than 2.5.

That's not right. Vegas barely set the lines anymore, they copy smart books such as Pinnacle like sheep. And Pinnacle's only working off the asian syndicates a lot of the time. There's no such thing as Vegas trap games anymore (if they ever was) Markets are way too efficient these days for that.

Favourites stats are completely irrelevant. If the oddsmakers had somehow made the Texans favs, would that give the Texans a greater chance of winning tonight?

What stats are relevant is the home field Advantage. Home teams on a Thursday night have a great record. Texans are probably getting 4 to 4.5 points tonight for Homefield adv on a short week. That means the line is saying the Colts are 6.5-7 points better than the Texans. I think thats about right or even a small bit too much. Both teams are 3-2

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

That's not right. Vegas barely set the lines anymore, they copy smart books such as Pinnacle like sheep. And Pinnacle's only working off the asian syndicates a lot of the time. There's no such thing as Vegas trap games anymore (if they ever was) Markets are way too efficient these days for that.

Favourites stats are completely irrelevant. If the oddsmakers had somehow made the Texans favs, would that give the Texans a greater chance of winning tonight?

What stats are relevant is the home field Advantage. Home teams on a Thursday night have a great record. Texans are probably getting 4 to 4.5 points tonight for Homefield adv on a short week. That means the line is saying the Colts are 6.5-7 points better than the Texans. I think thats about right or even a small bit too much. Both teams are 3-2

Ive been in this game a long time and i can smell a trap game when i see it, very rarely i admit these days do trap games come along, but this was one, could smell it a mile off.
About Pinnacle, this is where i do all my betting on Nfl and Ncaaf, and asian syndicates are not relevant to Nfl as there mostly soccer based, not much action on american sports except NBA.
Yes Pinnacle is a very efficient but its the sharps who pushed down the price of Indy against the spread to get the value on them and tonight was value overload.

Hulk Hands

Did you not say you were relatively young on the Racing forum a while back? Maybe i'm mistaken. I listened to at least 2 podcasts earlier with well known 'sharps' and both of them were on the Texans. I agreed with you btw, im on the Colts -1.5 but I think you maybe had a pint or 2 and are looking into this too much. I cant see how the sharps could push down the price on something to back the opposite? they'd have to back it to push down the price. The public are also on the Colts tonight by the way so having the public and the sharps all loading on the same team while keeping the line the same doesnt exactly make sound business sense for the bookies

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Did you not say you were relatively young on the Racing forum a while back? Maybe i'm mistaken. I listened to at least 2 podcasts earlier with well known 'sharps' and both of them were on the Texans. I agreed with you btw, im on the Colts -1.5 but I think you maybe had a pint or 2 and are looking into this too much. I cant see how the sharps could push down the price on something to back the opposite? they'd have to back it to push down the price. The public are also on the Colts tonight by the way so having the public and the sharps all loading on the same team while keeping the line the same doesnt exactly make sound business sense for the bookies

Yes im quiet young (30's) and i make most of my money on american sports and fx trading.
Ive been doing american sports for years and it is the only place i can get a edge nowadays more so college football and basketball than Nfl because as you said for the most part the market there is so efficient.
You can listen to podcasts all day and study every little detail like i do myself, but when you do it long enough you get a sense of things and my sense was very strong on this game tonight.
I dont usually write up about games as i hate writing too long, i just give my picks straight out but there is a lot of reasoning behind them which i cant put down on paper as i take in so much to arrive at my decision.

Hulk Hands

Im confusing ya with someone else sorry

JONJO THE MISER

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Im confusing ya with someone else sorry

No hassle, love talking gambling.

eagle eye

TY Hilton, must have close to 200 yards now and he finally has the TD!!!!:D:D:D

skippymac6

skippymac6 wrote: »

Under 47 points for me

Well that was up in smoke by ht nearly! Luck started on fire and the Texans just didn't have an answer for him and Hilton.

Decent comeback by the Texans but they stalled in the last few drives when they were trying to force the issue. They'll win games when they get out to a lead and are able to ride Foster as he was good again and has been all year

Guffy

Thank god for texas D td saving my fantasy... I was saying to a mate last night I wish I could back JJ watt specifically for an anytime td

Bateman

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I cant see how the sharps could push down the price on something to back the opposite? they'd have to back it to push down the price. The public are also on the Colts tonight by the way so having the public and the sharps all loading on the same team while keeping the line the same doesnt exactly make sound business sense for the bookies

You kind of answered the question there, if the sharps see that the public is on the opposite side to them, they can nudge the price in a bit to get the spread they want to back themselves, because like you say the books don’t want the pros and joes on the same side. Not necessarily possible if, like you say, the public was on the Colts in this case anyway, and you might be right that it doesn’t even really go on anymore.

Andrew Luck’s ATS record in divisional games is absolutely phenomenal at this stage.

Kharrell

Any proven winners here who maintain a season record, preferably more than just than the season so far worth keeping an eye on? Have had a very decent start to the regular season, but always willing to broaden my horizon and see what others are on. Never know if there is a decent chance to tail or fade someone around the corner.

UnitedIrishman

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Gone for a small interest double on the Colts (moneyline) and the overs. Got a feeling Luck will get it done tonight.

Nice start to the weekend but admittedly had a small amount on it. Will pay for couple of bets over the weekend though.

Paully D

Clean sweep last week to get back into the green thankfully after a difficult start to the season for myself. I like a lot of away favourites this week which is not a good sign :pac: but anyway:

49ers (-3.5) @ Rams
Steelers (+1.5) @ Browns
Chargers (-7) @ Raiders
Packers (-3) @ Dolphins
Patriots (-2.5) @ Bills

matthew8

1 unit each on SD -7 1.95, NE win 1.67 and Seattle -8 2.0.

tonc76

Baltimore Ravens(-3.5)
Evens
Denver Broncos(-8.5)
20/23
Buffalo Bills(+2.5)
10/11
Green Bay Packers(-3.0)
Evens

5 units

San Diego Chargers(-7.5)
21/20
Dallas Cowboys(8.0)
20/23
Arizona Cardinals(-3.5)
20/21

5 units

skippymac6

Going to take a couple of home underdogs today.

Browns on ML
Jets +10
Bills +2.5

Billy86

Heading out to watch the games in town tonight so I've thrown on a lot of small bets to keep up with. Was putting on the bets when Palmer was announced as the starter, so just about got the value on them - the line moved 2.5 points within an hour after!

€10 on Cardinals -3.5 / over 37.5 match points at 11/10
€12 in Larry Fitzgerald to have over 56.5 yards at 5/6
€12 on Drew Stanton to have under 241.5 passing yards at 5/6
*Almost certain this will wind up as a returned bet, but thought I would give it a look for future reference. If it pays out, there's an avenue for free money down the line!

€12 on Eddie Lacy over 70.5 rushing yards at 5/6
€12 on Bishop Sankey to get over 57.5 rushing yards at 5/6

€10 treble on Lacy over 70.5 rushing yards, Fitzgerald over 56.5 receiving yards and Newton over 240.5 passing yards at 5.1/1.

€10 accumulator on Falcons to win and over 45.5 match points... Chargers -5.5 and over 35.5 match points... Panthers +8.5 and over 44.5 match points... and Cardinals -3.5 and over 37.5 match points... just shy of 22/1.

Also considering overs on any of Witten 42.5 yards, Roddy White 62.5,

poldebruin

Washington to Beat Arizona straight up.
23/10

I think there's a good chance Palmer will not finish the game in the face of the Washington pressure. Washington also gave the Seahawks a decent game last week. Arizona's best defensive player (Campbell) is missing also.

Billy86

poldebruin wrote: »

Washington to Beat Arizona straight up.
23/10

I think there's a good chance Palmer will not finish the game in the face of the Washington pressure. Washington also gave the Seahawks a decent game last week. Arizona's best defensive player (Campbell) is missing also.

In fairness though, 10 of Washington's points came off two 60 yard passes, which you can't really rely on consistently, and the Seahawks had a lot of penalties (including 3 TDs called back for flags), while the Cardinals were within 4 points of the Broncos until the 4th quarter when Logan Thomas went completed none of his passes. I wouldn't put much faith in the Redskins, though the line move from -3.5 to -6.5 would be too much for me to really go for Arizona either at this point.

Paully D

A small bet on Bears/Falcons to be the highest scoring game of the week at 4/1 alongside my other bets previously posted.

JaMarcusHustle

Quite like Sammy Watkings under 60.5 receiving yards. Revis looked back to his best last week, and played a lot more man-press which is where he's at his best. Hoping he does the same today up against Watkins.

Also like Gronk over 64.5. Like Revis, he looked his former self last week. Another week closer to full fitness too. Edelman over 69.5 is also interesting too - the Bills will certainly get pressure on Brady so I expect a lot of quick passes to Edelman and Gronk to evade the pass rush.

matthew8

1 unit GB to win 1.83.

JONJO THE MISER

3 bets.

Patriots/Buffalo over 43.5 at 1.90 for 4 Pts.

Jets +16 and over 41 pts at evs for a 5 Pt teaser.

Baltimore +2.5 and under 50 for a 2pt teaser.

poldebruin

Billy86 wrote: »

In fairness though, 10 of Washington's points came off two 60 yard passes, which you can't really rely on consistently, and the Seahawks had a lot of penalties (including 3 TDs called back for flags), while the Cardinals were within 4 points of the Broncos until the 4th quarter when Logan Thomas went completed none of his passes. I wouldn't put much faith in the Redskins, though the line move from -3.5 to -6.5 would be too much for me to really go for Arizona either at this point.

I wouldn't put much faith in Washington, none of the other games jump out at me this week though.

Arizona were a different team without Campbell, as you mention, Denver destroyed them after he went out.

They also lucked into an 80+ yard TD pass (from Thomas) that was thrown into triple coverage and should have been picked off (twice!)

matthew8

Jonjo you jammy... I got a last gasp winner too, but a pick 6 to cover, must be a great feeling, even though it was a push as it stood.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Jonjo you jammy... I got a last gasp winner too, but a pick 6 to cover, must be a great feeling, even though it was a push as it stood.

Geno you just killed me

JaMarcusHustle

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Quite like Sammy Watkings under 60.5 receiving yards. Revis looked back to his best last week, and played a lot more man-press which is where he's at his best. Hoping he does the same today up against Watkins.

Also like Gronk over 64.5. Like Revis, he looked his former self last week. Another week closer to full fitness too. Edelman over 69.5 is also interesting too - the Bills will certainly get pressure on Brady so I expect a lot of quick passes to Edelman and Gronk to evade the pass rush.

That could not have gone any better

JONJO THE MISER

Dallas +16 and under 53 for a 5 Pt teaser at evs.

JONJO THE MISER

matthew8 wrote: »

Jonjo you jammy... I got a last gasp winner too, but a pick 6 to cover, must be a great feeling, even though it was a push as it stood.

Yeah it all comes around in the end, had a few unlucky misses in weeks past,but it all evens out.

PokeHerKing

I had the bengals on a win treble lads, dont suppose I get a push for that by any chance?

matthew8

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I had the bengals on a win treble lads, dont suppose I get a push for that by any chance?

Yes you do.

PokeHerKing

matthew8 wrote: »

Yes you do.

Sweet! Cheers.

skippymac6

matthew8 wrote: »

Jonjo you jammy... I got a last gasp winner too, but a pick 6 to cover, must be a great feeling, even though it was a push as it stood.

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I had the bengals on a win treble lads, dont suppose I get a push for that by any chance?

I had them in a special four fold acca with paddy. As the terms said ravens, packers, bengals and broncos to win, I doubt I'll be getting paid on that :-(

skippymac6

Billy86 wrote: »

In fairness though, 10 of Washington's points came off two 60 yard passes, which you can't really rely on consistently, and the Seahawks had a lot of penalties (including 3 TDs called back for flags), while the Cardinals were within 4 points of the Broncos until the 4th quarter when Logan Thomas went completed none of his passes. I wouldn't put much faith in the Redskins, though the line move from -3.5 to -6.5 would be too much for me to really go for Arizona either at this point.

Washington getting those big pass plays again today!!

BKWDR

Lowered my acca to just 4 teams instead of 6+ and bet a bit more than usua .

Picked 9ers / chargers / broncos / patriots

Of all the games I didn't think the chargers game would be giving me heart ache...

Agent J

I'd just like to go on Record. I hate the Raiders. They wrecked my accumlator..