Iraq, ISIS etc, Opinions ?

realweirdo

Not really that sure Afghanistan is going the way of Iraq. From my understanding the Afghans now run most of the provinces, are in charge of most of the bases and do most of the frontline fighting against the Taliban. The Taliban are no longer facing a ragtag outfit like they did when they first took power in the mid 90s. The Afghan army today is massive and well equipped. The Talibans might gain ground in rural areas but so far all they've been able to do lately is go into cities and get their ass kicked before retreating leaving behind their dead.

AbusesToilets

The fundamental issue with a war like Afghanistan is that eventually the host nation has to take the lead in running things. There has been a consistent failure to hold the Afghans to the required standard, be it militarily, politically or in the realm of fighting corruption. They have to take control of their own destinies and not look to the US to fix things for them.

Similarly, in Iraq, you have a situation where a well equipped, expensively trained army runs away from a small group of militia without putting up any fight. Do they need squads of NKVD-esque politicos at their backs with the threat of execution before they will fight for themselves?

Victor

AbusesToilets wrote: »

before they will fight for themselves?

The problem is that the current Iraqi army is Shia-dominated. When they were operating in Sunnis areas, they weren't 'fighting for themselves' - they were in a place they weren't wanted by the local population. Any army will have difficulty succeeding in such a situation.

AbusesToilets

Victor wrote: »

The problem is that the current Iraqi army is Shia-dominated. When they were operating in Sunnis areas, they weren't 'fighting for themselves' - they were in a place they weren't wanted by the local population. Any army will have difficulty succeeding in such a situation.

I recognise that, but that doesn't excuse the level of desertion that was documented. I think part of the problem is that a lot of the individuals who sign up for the military are looking at it as a way to get some money and have no will or drive to actually fight.

realweirdo

AbusesToilets wrote: »

The fundamental issue with a war like Afghanistan is that eventually the host nation has to take the lead in running things. There has been a consistent failure to hold the Afghans to the required standard, be it militarily, politically or in the realm of fighting corruption. They have to take control of their own destinies and not look to the US to fix things for them.

Similarly, in Iraq, you have a situation where a well equipped, expensively trained army runs away from a small group of militia without putting up any fight. Do they need squads of NKVD-esque politicos at their backs with the threat of execution before they will fight for themselves?

I think what happened in Iraq is that it was a largely Shia division in a mainly Sunni area. Their senior officers all disappeared in the middle of the night leaving no command and control and a leaderless mess. The smart soldiers just deserted then back to their home areas in baghdad or sourthern Iraq. Those who remained put up a small fight but not much.

I would blame the officer corp in this situation more than the ordinary foot soldiers.

Lemming

A contributory factor is the psycological warfare that IS have been conducting - quite successfully - over social media. So just before they try to take a location they post videos and pictures of what they do to prisoners. The other guys see it and the morale drop spreads like rot through the ranks and they all either lose the will to put up a stiff fight, or run away. Or both.

Five Lamps

Lemming wrote: »

A contributory factor is the psycological warfare that IS have been conducting - quite successfully - over social media. So just before they try to take a location they post videos and pictures of what they do to prisoners. The other guys see it and the morale drop spreads like rot through the ranks and they all either lose the will to put up a stiff fight, or run away. Or both.

It's very effective. No matter how well armed or trained you are, you don't want to be that one guy who gets taken prisoner.

The US will have no victory against an enemy that purports to be a religious movement. You'll just never win. However, the brutality of ISIS may well be their undoing. The Sunni's may feel disfranchised but I doubt if they want to live on the constant and brutal executions in the style of ISIS.

Victor

Interesting piece: http://www.vox.com/cards/isis-myths-iraq/crazy-irrational

Lemming

Victor wrote: »

Interesting piece: http://www.vox.com/cards/isis-myths-iraq/crazy-irrational

Oh, the IS leadership is not insane or crazy on matters of conquest & consolidation. There is very much method to the perceived madness that they wield. The question is how long can they hold on to their hubris before it all falls apart. They aren't making any friends in the region and rapidly making a lot of enemies.

Stars and Stripes

Well I know this is an old thread but here's a recent report on ISIS and Iraqi army. It claims - " IN A series of lightning advances over the past few days, Iraq’s army has seized control of most of western Mosul, the last redoubt of Islamic State (IS) in the country. On March 7th, a day that may have marked a turning point, army units took Mosul’s main government complex, as well as the city’s famous antiquities museum and about half of the old city. The airport had fallen a week or so earlier, and all roads in and out of the city in which the leader of IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, declared his “caliphate” in June 2014 are firmly in government hands." Any thoughts guys ?

The Iraqi army is on the brink of defeating Islamic State
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21718456-government-must-move-fast-if-it-not-squander-its-victory-iraqi

Victor

Notably, ISIS are cut off from Turkey: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Western_al-Bab_offensive_(2016)_(within_Northern_Syria).svg and can't rely on it for funding or supplies. However, they may regroup and re-take territory, as they did in Palmyra, so don't count them out yet.