Who's doing what?

jay0109

Spider

where does the withdrawal of the early investors/bottom feeders (Wilbur Ross and Kennedy Wilson for example) fit into your theory?

By my reckoning, we'll now see the amateur investor pile in as they start to realise (too late) that there's money to be made. So it seems we're well on the way to another bust

The Spider

jay0109 wrote: »

Spider

where does the withdrawal of the early investors/bottom feeders (Wilbur Ross and Kennedy Wilson for example) fit into your theory?

By my reckoning, we'll now see the amateur investor pile in as they start to realise (too late) that there's money to be made. So it seems we're well on the way to another bust

Those guys got in made big gains and now they're out. I take from the statement online that they maybe may not make as big gains in the future, but who knows? Plenty of people sold apple shares and in hindsight they were ridiculously cheap when they sold them.

Can't realistically see it busting unless supply is increased and it would have to be major, over 15'000 houses probably in the past I would have said in areas that people want to live, but I think we're past that now and as long as it was in Dublin people would buy them.

Amateur investors may indeed pile in, the returns on rent alone will make you a profit, and there's still plenty of apartments (northside) around the 160 mark, mortgage would more than likely be around 6-700 depending on deposit, rent'll come in between 1150 and 1250, so there's reason right there, I'd be more cautious on southside apartments.

Like I say though demand is beating supply at the moment, and that's why people are moving outside, example house in Ballymoney for sale currently at 150'000 in the boom those houses were 450'000 plus, if we are heading back towards recovery then buying that house now would be a wise move.

If we crash not so wise, but again I can't see it unless there's a way for all the people who want houses in Dublin to get them.

Theboinkmaster

The Spider wrote: »

If we crash not so wise, but again I can't see it unless there's a way for all the people who want houses in Dublin to get them.

But what is different now about Dublin supply and demand, as apposed to 20 years ago. Why has SCD suddenly become unaffordable to those without hundreds of thousands in cash?

3 bed semi D in D16 now €0.5m - how is that sustainable ffs.

Cuddlesworth

The Spider wrote: »

Can't realistically see it busting unless supply is increased and it would have to be major, over 15'000 houses probably in the past I would have said in areas that people want to live, but I think we're past that now and as long as it was in Dublin people would buy them.

15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.

The Spider

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.

That old chestnut, seriously if you're relying on that, good luck.

Don't worry about what other people are doing, worry about what you should be doing.

The Spider

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

But what is different now about Dublin supply and demand, as apposed to 20 years ago. Why has SCD suddenly become unaffordable to those without hundreds of thousands in cash?

3 bed semi D in D16 now €0.5m - how is that sustainable ffs.

What's different is that for the past seven years more or less, is that no one was selling their houses, and people weren't looking to buy them because prices were dropping.

No one is going to se their house and not cover the price of it. No one in negative equity is going to sell especially if they're servicing the mortgage.

So you have years of no one selling, and now people see prices rising so they want to buy.

Prices still aren't high enough for people to sell who bought in 2005-2007.

Prices are still too low for people to downsize and have money to live off of.

The only way for these people to sell their houses is for price increases.

Dredd_J

My sister was in negative equity for years and had her house for sale because she wanted to take the hit and move back to the homestead. She used to stay awake nights worrying if she could sell her house and only have a shortfall of a 100k or so. She was so worried about eventually being under for 200k if she waited. Of course the house wouldnt sell at what she was asking and didnt sell.

She just announced to me a couple weeks ago. "House has gone up in value. Lots of bids coming in now, way above the price it would take to get out of negative equity. No need to sell now. Taking it off the market. All happy again."

How things change.

Frank Lee Midere

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

15,000 properties. I wonder how many properties there are in the greater Dublin region who haven't paid a cent towards their mortgage in 3+ years.

15000 a year is nonsense anyway. You get about 2.5 people per modern house. So that's about 40,000 a year growth in Dublin, almost ½ million in a decade.

Frank Lee Midere

It looks to me that daft is growing supply fairly rapidly.

I'd say wait. Last time that happened the bust followed at a lag of about 6 months.

Frank Lee Midere

The Spider wrote: »

That old chestnut, seriously if you're relying on that, good luck.

Don't worry about what other people are doing, worry about what you should be doing.

What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.

The Spider

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.[/


Worrying about the deals that other people have done with banks etc, is none of your business, if you're worried about it buy a house and don't pay the mortgage.

Not something I'd like worrying every time the phone rings.

jay0109

The Spider wrote: »

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

What other people should be doing is getting kicked out of the houses they can't afford rather than forcing those of us who could afford their houses to rent.[/


Worrying about the deals that other people have done with banks etc, is none of your business, if you're worried about it buy a house and don't pay the mortgage.

Not something I'd like worrying every time the phone rings.

None of 'our business' - if only:mad:
We're all paying for these deals....I refer you to the USC column on your pay slip!

The Spider

jay0109 wrote: »

The Spider wrote: »

None of 'our business' - if only:mad:
We're all paying for these deals....I refer you to the USC column on your pay slip!

Either way nothing I can do about it, and nothing you can do either. I see we're back to talking about repossessions, that's been discredited, it won't provide supply either rental or otherwise.

Now you can stand around and yell about the injustice of it all, or try and carve out your own piece if the pie, because that's what everyone else is doing.

jay0109

Such strong, bullish talk.....reminds me so much of a few years back.
The next 3 years will tell the story one way or the other I reckon

by the seaside

Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?

The Spider

jay0109 wrote: »

Such strong, bullish talk.....reminds me so much of a few years back.
The next 3 years will tell the story one way or the other I reckon

Nah stood out of the first bubble it was obvious what it was, bought at the bottom in 2012 outside Dublin, bargain price happy with the house and a very low mortgage.

I know I sound bullish but if you met me any time up to 2007 I would have been the biggest bear you'd meet.

This time around its a supply issue, brought on by lack of building and people not selling in negative equity, for seven years.

If you think we're 2 years into price rises that leaves five years to resolve the issues around supply, until that's done prices will keep going up, in Dublin at least, could still go through the floor outside.

jay0109

by the seaside wrote: »

Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?

It will defo affect confidence in the Dublin market, and may cause a blip at least for a couple of months

by the seaside

jay0109 wrote: »

It will defo affect confidence in the Dublin market, and may cause a blip at least for a couple of months

Is overseas investment cash (e.g. Chinese, Singaporean, Russian) a factor in Dublin demand? It is in London and there are reports that it is elsewhere in GB - money that can't afford London goes to middle class suburban Birmingham. If the cash flows reverse, it may be a big factor in a fall in prices. Another factor is that Sterling is now looking a better bet that the Euro, so if you're are investment inflows, that may divert them away (or rather reduce the current trend) from Ireland.

Cuddlesworth

by the seaside wrote: »

Hi folks. Watching Dublin house prices from England. Does anyone else think that there may be a link between London (up 18% in year) and Dublin prices. In particular, if London pops, will Dublin?

Pretty much everything I had read has implied London is in the mother of all property bubbles, fueled to a huge extent by foreign investment and a powerhouse of a financial sector. I don't think there is anywhere in the world right now that could be compared to London.

by the seaside

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Pretty much everything I had read has implied London is in the mother of all property bubbles, fueled to a huge extent by foreign investment and a powerhouse of a financial sector. I don't think there is anywhere in the world right now that could be compared to London.

True, but when London property catches a cold, it will spread a long way I think. Just not sure whether it will extend to Dublin.

Dredd_J

Dredd_J wrote: »

My sister was in negative equity for years and had her house for sale because she wanted to take the hit and move back to the homestead. She used to stay awake nights worrying if she could sell her house and only have a shortfall of a 100k or so. She was so worried about eventually being under for 200k if she waited. Of course the house wouldnt sell at what she was asking and didnt sell.

She just announced to me a couple weeks ago. "House has gone up in value. Lots of bids coming in now, way above the price it would take to get out of negative equity. No need to sell now. Taking it off the market. All happy again."

How things change.

If she could afford the mortgage and doesn't plan on moving then why did the value of the property matter so much to her?

Dredd_J

Deleted User wrote: »

If she could afford the mortgage and doesn't plan on moving then why did the value of the property matter so much to her?

My thoughts exactly.
But it seems that when you are in negative equity there is a major psychological effect on you.
Not that shes not in negative equity she no longer sees the house as a noose around her neck and can enjoy it again. And now she can look at the fact that she has a huge chunk of the mortgage term over with and is paying far less for the mortgage than she would for rent on the same house, without the thought that she owes more than the house is worth at the back of her mind.

Yet its the same house, bought for the same amount of money, with the same amount of money outstanding on it.

ixus

One could argue that supply isn't really the issue. Policy from local & international government has driven recent movements.

Cyprus and the confiscation of deposits has forced depositors with 100k plus to reassess the merits of holding cash in a country like Ireland with its exposure to banks. Suppressed interest rates are also a factor.

Locally; you have government shifting tax policy to incentives depositors to put cash into property. It is/was also the largest property holder in the state and, as such, benefits from pushing up the value of its own book. It does so by drip sales of assets, not forcing banks to deal with repossessions and allowing land banking.

If you had 200k sitting in a bank, would you leave it there with the fear of confiscation or, purchase an asset?

Does anyone recall the phrase "we're a small, open economy" bandied about post crash. Or," it was was Lehmans what done it!"

We're still exposed to exogenous events that could render this supply argument null with one big swipe of a fat tail.