Property Prices Good or Bad?

spear_mint

mr_seer wrote: »

Houses in Drumcondra are not going to be worth €100k any time soon but they certainly aren't worth the €600k+ they are fetching now.

New mortgage lending issued in the last year is down on the prior year in spite of the surge in prices and all the hype about the market. The current price level is entirely driven by lack of stock with cash buyers the only active purchasers and as I said in my prior post, there will be nothing to replace them

vast majority of houses in drumcondra are not close to 600 k

gaius c

spear_mint wrote: »

you sound like one of those goldbugs on various sites ( including this one ) who keep yelling that the price of gold is being supressed , that inflation is greater than reported and that stocks are wildly overvalued

as a wise man once said , " markers can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent "

beit the fed in america or NAMA here , goverment intervention is a hallmark in many sectors of the global economy , one example being that without it , hardly and farmers in ireland would survive , accept that reality and play the best hand you can

houses in drumcondra are not going to be worth 100 k anytime soon

You're ignoring the massive amount of foreclosure stuffing going on in the market and also the fact that half of the market is cash-only.
This kind of messing by vendors who should be evicted pronto is what is restricting supply.

These are massive distorting factors and our minister for property price rises is probably happy enough with it because it makes the banks look healthier on paper.
The saying above should really read "the market can stay insolvent longer than you can remain rational".

Farmer Pudsey

gaius c wrote: »

You're ignoring the massive amount of foreclosure stuffing going on in the market and also the fact that half of the market is cash-only.
This kind of messing by vendors who should be evicted pronto is what is restricting supply.

These are massive distorting factors and our minister for property price rises is probably happy enough with it because it makes the banks look healthier on paper.
The saying above should really read "the market can stay insolvent longer than you can remain rational".

And loads are ignoring the fact that the real issue is a supply shortage. Unless 40-50K houses are build in dublin over the next 4-5 years( and maybe more than that are need in my opinion theyare) this isuue vwill remain as is. Present Mortgage applications require eith a good level of income to mortgage ratio and the rest has to be made up of a deposit.

The red herring of loads of houses being available for repossession is a red herring. In general this house price inflation is a Dublin only issue. Cork and Galway are fairly stable. Good semi-D's can still be got in Limerick for less than 150K. In rural Ireland 200K will in general buy you a flaking house.

Towards the middle/end of boom houses in holidays area's along the west coast were 250K++ for what were semi-d's or terraced houses. These properties are at less the cost of build ignoring the site value. This is really a Dublin Issue it is a supply issue, there is not a huge amount of houses out there to be repossessed.

Sleepy

I'd have thought that one of the first things to look at would be the REA rates since they're artificially increasing the build cost of a house when we have thousands of unemployed construction workers on welfare and labour makes up a huge percentage of the build cost of a property.

Also, given the number of sub-contractors who were making fortunes for themselves during the bubble, it would appear to me, that the construction industry was using some very inefficient business models: if there's profit in the sale of a property for the developer, main contractor, a number of sub-contractors, yet more sub-sub contractors, the construction workers themselves and the estate agents, it seems to me that there are far too many middle-men taking a slice of the action for prices to in any way reflect the value of what's being sold.

Dob74

Dredd_J wrote: »

What matters is the wages of the person bidding against you, if they want the house more than you do. Nothing more.

If the central bank did it's job and regulated the amount per square foot a mortgage be borrowed for, would mean prices would be kept in check.

gaius c

Dob74 wrote: »

If the central bank did it's job and regulated the amount per square foot a mortgage be borrowed for, would mean prices would be kept in check.

Pointless because right now, mortgage buyers are losing out to cash buyers.

Dredd_J

Dob74 wrote: »

If the central bank did it's job and regulated the amount per square foot a mortgage be borrowed for, would mean prices would be kept in check.

They are.
If you want to restrict even more the amount someone on very good money can get for a mortgage, you must also restrict those on less money too. So those who barely make enough to get mortgage approval now would not then qualify for a mortgage.
Sounds like people want to cut off their nose to spite their faces.

ardmacha

Surely the whole point is to restrict mortgages to those who can barely afford them, so that they do not end up unable to pay them.

bluemartin

Low interest rates and the fact that the government has taxed the hell out of savings is a factor why so many are putting their savings into property investment.

Dredd_J

ardmacha wrote: »

Surely the whole point is to restrict mortgages to those who can barely afford them, so that they do not end up unable to pay them.

Just pointing out that if someone wishes the borrowing limits to drop on well off people, so that house prices drop into their own price bracket, that your own limits will drop accordingly to.

I dont believe the banks are overlending at the moment. They were stung big time and wont be making that mistake again for a while.

harpsman

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

In Dublin year on year it is 17% I think. However this may be more pronounced in certain parts.
http://www.herald.ie/news/house-prices-rising-as-fast-as-boomtime-30393304.html

In certain parts of Dublin prices are up nearly 50% in 2 years.

quadrifoglio verde

comongethappy wrote: »

Would you prefer they rent?

I don't see what is intrinsically wrong with people purchasing a home for themselves.

When I purchased a house I wasn't "getting on the ladder", I was purchasing a home for me & my family.

It isn't about 'learning lessons' its about doing what you think is right for you.

Theres nothing wrong with purchasing a home....its when people purchase homes and stop paying the mortgage for whatever reason that might be and want to keep the home thats wrong

gaius c

It's foreclosure stuffing folks and it can't keep going forever.

chopper6

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Theres nothing wrong with purchasing a home....its when people purchase homes and stop paying the mortgage for whatever reason that might be and want to keep the home thats wrong

A "home" implies you're gonna live in it...most of these properties were bought as investments...either to rent out or sell on at a profit.

But yeah,if they're not paying the mortage they should be turfed out.

moxin

ardmacha wrote: »

Surely the whole point is to restrict mortgages to those who can barely afford them, so that they do not end up unable to pay them.

Banks still give out mortgages over a 35 year period with the usual 2% stress interest rate condition. Yes I know its still madness that they are still allowed to use the 35yr period as a smokescreen to house buyers as a way of making that mortgage "cheaper" per month.

AlekSmart

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Theres nothing wrong with purchasing a home....its when people purchase homes and stop paying the mortgage for whatever reason that might be and want to keep the home thats wrong

A significant part of our problem revolves around there being nothing wrong with RENTING a home either,particularly on a long-term,even whole-of-life basis.

It does'nt take too long in any of these threads before the age-old suspicion and dismissal of long-term Renting comes to the surface,which is a great pity.

There is a huge gulf in the area of Residential Property Occupation which Rental could and should be seen as capable of filling....but there remains a high amount of vested interest involvement which sees that as threatening

chopper6

AlekSmart wrote: »

A significant part of our problem revolves around there being nothing wrong with RENTING a home either,particularly on a long-term,even whole-of-life basis.

It does'nt take too long in any of these threads before the age-old suspicion and dismissal of long-term Renting comes to the surface,which is a great pity.

There is a huge gulf in the area of Residential Property Occupation which Rental could and should be seen as capable of filling....but there remains a high amount of vested interest involvement which sees that as threatening

Renting isnt a viable option for most people in the long term because the irish rental market is a shambles.

the market is full of shysters who bought-to-let,arent registered,arent tax compliant and are frothing at the mouth to increase rent.

Go over to the accomadation and property forum to hear some of the horror stories.

AlekSmart

chopper6 wrote: »

Renting isnt a viable option for most people in the long term because the irish rental market is a shambles.

the market is full of shysters who bought-to-let,arent registered,arent tax compliant and are frothing at the mouth to increase rent.

Go over to the accomadation and property forum to hear some of the horror stories.

100% in agreement here.

The real question is why the Renting options viability has'nt been seen or utilised as one very simple method of releasing the Acccomodation Pressure build-up ?

Instead,as the OP points out,virtually the entire Private Rented Accomodation sector is at the mercy of shysters,both Amateur AND Professional.

Plus it's worth noting that the shady-dealing and opportunistic carry on is NOT limited to the Landlords ......there are more than a few individuals and groups of renters who have shown great willingness to play on the ramshackle regulation of the sector.

This is one area where the State really should get stuck in,get directly involved in a massive regulatory clean-up and facilitation process which would favour Professionalizing the Rental Market and encouraging Long-Term rental as a viable option to purchasing resedential property....

Lets see what the Auctioneers and Valuers branch in Leinster House make of that suggestion ?

Bob24

comongethappy wrote: »

Would you prefer they rent?

I don't see what is intrinsically wrong with people purchasing a home for themselves.

I would prefer they don't take up mortgages they won't be able to repay ... not saying it is the case for every buyer of course, but probably true of too many of them.

Sure most people should be able to purchase a home and there is nothing wrong about this. When things are wrong is when doing so is pumping out a disproportionate part of their income (keeping in mind that interest rates are historically low and someone taking up a mortgage today *should* factor in the fact that their interest rate will most likely be significantly higher in a few years time).

I feel property prices cannot be looked at in isolation, currently with the level of unemployment in Ireland coupled with high taxation (compared to a decade ago) even with low house prices and low interest rates there is not much movement in the nationwide stock. That stock is quite small.

The recent rises in cheaper properties is investment driven due to the CGT situation, I think 2015 and the next couple of years may see small nationwide increases in sale prices but nothing approaching a bubble as the economy itself won't grow significantly.

Dredd_J

Bob24 wrote: »

I would prefer they don't take up mortgages they won't be able to repay ... not saying it is the case for every buyer of course, but probably true of too many of them.

Sure most people should be able to purchase a home and there is nothing wrong about this. When things are wrong is when doing so is pumping out a disproportionate part of their income (keeping in mind that interest rates are historically low and someone taking up a mortgage today *should* factor in the fact that their interest rate will most likely be significantly higher in a few years time).

Most people are able to purchase a home.
But everyone want to purchase bigger and better located than they can afford / need.

ardmacha

Augeo wrote:

I feel property prices cannot be looked at in isolation, currently with the level of unemployment in Ireland coupled with high taxation (compared to a decade ago) even with low house prices and low interest rates there is not much movement in the nationwide stock. That stock is quite small.

The recent rises in cheaper properties is investment driven due to the CGT situation, I think 2015 and the next couple of years may see small nationwide increases in sale prices but nothing approaching a bubble as the economy itself won't grow significantly.

An increase in prices owing to growth in the economy might be somewhat sustainable. It is increases that exceed growth or "growth" that is only caused by property inflation that is the problem.

Dredd_J wrote: »

Most people are able to purchase a home.
But everyone want to purchase bigger and better located than they can afford / need.

"everyone"? At most times in Ireland most people have bought houses they can afford, there are always a few eejits and some unanticipated change.

Dredd_J

ardmacha wrote: »

An increase in prices owing to growth in the economy might be somewhat sustainable. It is increases that exceed growth or "growth" that is only caused by property inflation that is the problem.




"everyone"? At most times in Ireland most people have bought houses they can afford, there are always a few eejits and some unanticipated change.

Im gonna go out on a limb here and say yes, "everyone" i know of who wants to buy a house wants to buy one bigger than they need and in a area that they dont really need to buy in. Each one of them has cheaper choices but they all want bigger houses and closer to work, and then whinge when other people want it more and can pay more, so therefore the price goes up.
I include myself and the mrs in "Everyone" too

AlekSmart

ardmacha wrote: »

An increase in prices owing to growth in the economy might be somewhat sustainable. It is increases that exceed growth or "growth" that is only caused by property inflation that is the problem.

"everyone"? At most times in Ireland most people have bought houses they thought they could can afford, there are always a few eejits and some unanticipated change.

The issue as I see it is how we completely overvalued our economic situation....I cannot see how the basic structure of our economy can finance the actual costs of purchasing and running one's own domestic residential property...however the same economy could well sustain a far more ordered Rental Market,as was the case with the "olden days" Local Authority schemes.

Mind you,our welcoming Australian folks are having somewhat of a similiar flap right now too....

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/reserve-bank-paper-states-29-per-cent-is-the-magic-number-for-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-rent/story-fni6ulvf-1226988577880?nk=3bf81ed23c6315ac63d23993c16c5b42

I do hope the Aussies have done their homework .....;)

golfwallah

harpsman wrote: »

In certain parts of Dublin prices are up nearly 50% in 2 years.

"Asking Prices" maybe, but are sellers really getting these prices?

I know selling prices in the Property Price Register for houses near me were around the €410K region about 18 months ago and I recently heard of one on the market for around the €710K bracket (+73%).

Crazy, it seems to me, but the last recorded selling price in the Property Price Register was around €550K (+34%).

I guess sellers can ask for what they like, but it's the actual selling prices that really matter.

Even so, an increase of over 30% in about 18 months - requiring very high multiples of most peoples' annual salary - is getting close to exceeding "intrinsic value" and can't be good for the economy (as posed by the OP).

In the long run there has to be a sensible relationship between pay levels and property prices, if we want to have a sustainable economy. So, I wonder what the impact on prices will be when more new houses start to come on stream in a year or so.

gaius c

golfwallah wrote: »

"Asking Prices" maybe, but are sellers really getting these prices?

I know selling prices in the Property Price Register for houses near me were around the €410K region about 18 months ago and I recently heard of one on the market for around the €710K bracket (+73%).

Crazy, it seems to me, but the last recorded selling price in the Property Price Register was around €550K (+34%).

I guess sellers can ask for what they like, but it's the actual selling prices that really matter.

Even so, an increase of over 30% in about 18 months - requiring very high multiples of most peoples' annual salary - is getting close to exceeding "intrinsic value" and can't be good for the economy (as posed by the OP).

In the long run there has to be a sensible relationship between pay levels and property prices, if we want to have a sustainable economy. So, I wonder what the impact on prices will be when more new houses start to come on stream in a year or so.

Because stock on the market that is genuinely for sale is so so limited, those vendors can pretty much hold the market to ransom.

golfwallah

gaius c wrote: »

Because stock on the market that is genuinely for sale is so so limited, those vendors can pretty much hold the market to ransom.

Maybe you have some specific examples of or statistics about houses on the market that are not really for sale by "vendors" holding buyers "to ransom".

My observation around Malahide is that prices have been rising and houses are being sold.

Also looked at the Property Price Register, which shows quite a lot of sales taking place at higher prices than 2 years ago in the same areas.

Plus there are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure.

Where are you getting your information from?

mr_seer

golfwallah wrote: »

Maybe you have some specific examples of or statistics about houses on the market that are not really for sale by "vendors" holding buyers "to ransom".

My observation around Malahide is that prices have been rising and houses are being sold.

Also looked at the Property Price Register, which shows quite a lot of sales taking place at higher prices than 2 years ago in the same areas.

Plus there are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure.

Where are you getting your information from?

There are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure? Really? That is a genuine question by the way. I haven't seen any so I am curious. Can you provide a link?

Farmer Pudsey

golfwallah wrote: »

Maybe you have some specific examples of or statistics about houses on the market that are not really for sale by "vendors" holding buyers "to ransom".

My observation around Malahide is that prices have been rising and houses are being sold.

Also looked at the Property Price Register, which shows quite a lot of sales taking place at higher prices than 2 years ago in the same areas.

Plus there are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure.

Where are you getting your information from?

Maybe his imagination! Or maybe what he would like to believe. Most cannot accept that the real issue is lack of new builds taking place. Demand is outpacing supply.

AlekSmart wrote: »

The issue as I see it is how we completely overvalued our economic situation....I cannot see how the basic structure of our economy can finance the actual costs of purchasing and running one's own domestic residential property...however the same economy could well sustain a far more ordered Rental Market,as was the case with the "olden days" Local Authority schemes.

Mind you,our welcoming Australian folks are having somewhat of a similiar flap right now too....

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/reserve-bank-paper-states-29-per-cent-is-the-magic-number-for-deciding-whether-to-buy-or-rent/story-fni6ulvf-1226988577880?nk=3bf81ed23c6315ac63d23993c16c5b42

I do hope the Aussies have done their homework .....;)

Are you advocating a return to LA housing and the government subsidzing rents. I have no issue with it but that is what really happens. If the basic structure of the economy cannot allow people to buy there own homes then neither will a rental market. there seems to be a fantancy about how reanting is cheaper. I have yet to see a proven economic analysis of it.
The reality is that unless you have a substantial pension when you retire you will not be able to afford to rent. I believe that to have any standard of living when you retire you need to own you own home or live in subsidized LA housing.

Loads critize the Irish rental sector however from talking to those that work abroad it seems no different. I have heard story's about London and it costing 150/week sterling for a bedsit and that involving a long commute to work. It is one of the reasons that older Irish trades people are reluctant to go there to work at present. I have heard of lads living in caravans in Continental Europe and it is not along the Mediterranian.

gaius c wrote: »

Because stock on the market that is genuinely for sale is so so limited, those vendors can pretty much hold the market to ransom.

is this because there are too few houses. traditionally you had houses for sale of people moving to bigger houses or in other area's and you had newly build houses as well. What is missing mmmmmmm newly build houses?? The other phenomenon is changing of family structure. People not want to live away from home and as people marry later or not at all they want a location (house or apartment of there own). This increases demand and now as the economy starts to grow they want to get a home.

mr_seer wrote: »

There are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure? Really? That is a genuine question by the way. I haven't seen any so I am curious. Can you provide a link?

IMO it is happening most are agreed deals between lenders and borrowers. If you know anyone employeed in an auctioneering firm talk to them about it.

orchidsrpretty

When you take into consideration the extra charges households now have to pay since 2007/8, the costs to buy a house are probably on par with boom time prices in the more desirable areas of Dublin for the average earner. By that i'm talking reduced pay rate/hours, extra taxes/charges(USC,water(soon to be), etc) with the current rising house prices.

E.g. A Couple earning 80k p.a. in 2005/6 now needs to earn 95k p.a. to afford the same value house of say 500k (and keep the same lifestyle) but in reality are only earning 50k p.a. albeit they would probably get a finer house for the 500k they won't qualify for the mortgage now. (just a figure didn't do calculations!)

This looks like a ≈50% decrease in purchasing power (Need to earn 95k p.a. only earning 50k p.a.) when in actual fact its closer to 75-80% when extra charges/taxes are taken into consideration coupled with inflation.

Obviously (Hopefully not too presumptuous) top earners were practically unaffected and are buying up the board to speak in monopoly terms, with their savings over the last 7-8 years+.

In my neck of the woods I don't doubt its a nice house and with an amazing view but it's right next to Bray head car park which can house all sorts after dark, and it backs onto the old golf course (chip & putt even), which this sunday (Airshow) will probably be packed with 10k+ people who can see into your back garden, if I won the Euromillions I wouldn't pay over €500k for that house when in fact it will probably fetch €1m+

I think the reality of it all (from reading & listening around) is most people buy with their heads not their hearts, instead of buying to spend rest of life in which equates to dream home status, buyers seem to throw money at sellers thinking it will be worth 'x' in 'y' years etc.. and for €1m+ I'd expect dream home status not a 3 bed beside a car park, however spacious. That being said I hope i'm not being too cynical as a good price for The Watch, means good prices for the area, which could be good for me.. who knows!!


What it all boils down to is the rich get richer, and poor dealt more hardship. Until no one can afford you're €2m gaff because that's what it cost after a 25 year mortgage, so you deserve it back right? Then we'll hit a deflation economy(We can look to Japan for examples of deflation) unless we all die a horrible death after a sellafield meltdown disaster before then! :eek: /rant (sorry in advance)

chopper6

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Maybe his imagination! Or maybe what he would like to believe. Most cannot accept that the real issue is lack of new builds taking place. Demand is outpacing supply.



.

We dont need New Builds..we need reposessions of buy to lets and moratge defaulters.

There's a growing number of people who are refusing to pay mortages at all on "investment" properties because they think the Govt is somehow going to bail them out,allowing them to keep the property without having to pay for it.

The Govt and by proxy the taxpayer have already bailed out the construction industry via NAMA and these places need to come onto the market to alleviate pressure.

The idea of "let's just build more" is the sort of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place.

Farmer Pudsey

chopper6 wrote: »

We dont need New Builds..we need reposessions of buy to lets and moratge defaulters.

There's a growing number of people who are refusing to pay mortages at all on "investment" properties because they think the Govt is somehow going to bail them out,allowing them to keep the property without having to pay for it.

The Govt and by proxy the taxpayer have already bailed out the construction industry via NAMA and these places need to come onto the market to alleviate pressure.

The idea of "let's just build more" is the sort of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place.

If all these houses are repossessed that you think are there the people who leave these houses will need rehousing so same demand will exist. It a supply issue FFS repossession will only be a short term solution.

chopper6

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

If all these houses are repossessed that you think are there the people who leave these houses will need rehousing so same demand will exist. It a supply issue FFS repossession will only be a short term solution.

As i said teh problem is caused by amateur investors purchasing multiple properties.

If their principle property is reposessed they can either rent or move back withthier parents...either way it might teach people about the folly of buying properties they cannot afford.

the worst possible outcome will be to allow them any kind of writedown..Irish people will learn nothing from thier mistakes and will do it all again given half a chance...see the Eircom shares debacle for example...idiots investing who knew nothing about the stock market yet they demanded thier money back when the share price collapsed.

AlekSmart

chopper6 wrote: »

As i said teh problem is caused by amateur investors purchasing multiple properties.

If their principle property is reposessed they can either rent or move back withthier parents...either way it might teach people about the folly of buying properties they cannot afford.


The worst possible outcome will be to allow them any kind of writedown..Irish people will learn nothing from thier mistakes and will do it all again given half a chance...see the Eircom shares debacle for example...idiots investing who knew nothing about the stock market yet they demanded thier money back when the share price collapsed.

Rather good post Chopper6.

Our national problem appears to be predicated upon treading a very narrow line between allowing people to believe they CAN afford residential property ownwership,whilst coincidentally reducing the disposable income from which they fund this ownership adventure.

Yet the alternative route,promoting a broader focused Residential Property market in which long-term secure rental could be considered as a viable alternative to purchase is totally disregarded.

Worse still,the State now actively connives to re-start the futile quest to both facilitate universal Residential Property Ownership,whilst maintaining all the other Societal Elements alongside this Utopian Dream.

Put at its simplest,Ireland Teo. does not generate enough personal disposable income to support this universal Ownership quest,I doubt if it ever will,but successive Governments appear committed to ignoring the less flavoursome alternatives ?

Geuze

mr_seer wrote: »

There are growing reports of increasing numbers of houses being sold through foreclosure? Really? That is a genuine question by the way. I haven't seen any so I am curious. Can you provide a link?

Loads of houses have been sold by receivers.

Lots at Allsop auctions.

Geuze

We do need to build more houses.

Output has been way too low for the last 5 years or so.

We have moved from overbuilding to underbuilding.

But the new houses need to be in Dublin, Cork and Galway.

jmayo

Geuze wrote: »

Loads of houses have been sold by receivers.

Lots at Allsop auctions.

How many properties have Allsops sold in total ?
Maybe a thousand, lets say a couple of thousand max.
And how many of those were repossessions ?

In the grand scheme of things the amount of repossesed properties, and especially those that have come to market, to the amount of mortgages in serious arrears is miniscule.

Our repossesion rate is a fraction of the rate in countries such as US or UK.
Yet we had one of the worst bubbles.
Go figure.

Dredd_J

As house prices increase so does the chance of them getting repossessed.
There will be a price point where the banks will repo.
When thats reached expect some stagnation in property prices. Neither up nor now for a while.
Until then looks like its up, up and up unfortunately.

gaius c

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

If all these houses are repossessed that you think are there the people who leave these houses will need rehousing so same demand will exist. It a supply issue FFS repossession will only be a short term solution.

No not really. Turnover rate in the housing market is currently running at about 60 years. Unless Irish people are now living to 100, that is clearly a ridiculously low rate and it's the throttling of the transaction volume that is distorting the market.

Think of it like AIB shares. AIB is technically "valued" at approx €57 billion euro but this valuation would evaporate if the full 521 billion issued shares were placed on the open market.

It's a very similar problem with the Irish housing market right now and the transaction rate needs to at least triple before we can proclaim that we have some semblance of a healthy market.

golfwallah wrote: »

Maybe you have some specific examples of or statistics about houses on the market that are not really for sale by "vendors" holding buyers "to ransom".

I do indeed and you don't have to go far for some of them.
Other examples are anecdotal from my peer group but there is an enormous amount of messing on the supply side with stuff like "you're the only bidder and you've met the asking price of X but the real selling price is X+20%".

gaius c

Dredd_J wrote: »

As house prices increase so does the chance of them getting repossessed.
There will be a price point where the banks will repo.
When thats reached expect some stagnation in property prices. Neither up nor now for a while.
Until then looks like its up, up and up unfortunately.

But repo and sell will see prices fall because of the volumes involved.
Thus, the current "market" is overvalued.

lolosaur

what alot of you fail to see is variables that come into play from here on in. It is 5 years+ most people who have emmigrated. most of them will have been putting their few bob away and time to come home.

Serious influx of buyers. serious influx of money. about 70% of these will be rural people and they are going to snap up the cheap properties in longford and rosscommon and the back end of no where.

the influx of people brings with it jobs, money and growth. we are set for an extremely fruitful 2016 and with that being the start of the boom, i dont see property prices abating until around 2021.

strap in, because the next few years are gonna be brilliant!

chopper6

lolosaur wrote: »

what alot of you fail to see is variables that come into play from here on in. It is 5 years+ most people who have emmigrated. most of them will have been putting their few bob away and time to come home.

Serious influx of buyers. serious influx of money. about 70% of these will be rural people and they are going to snap up the cheap properties in longford and rosscommon and the back end of no where.

the influx of people brings with it jobs, money and growth. we are set for an extremely fruitful 2016 and with that being the start of the boom, i dont see property prices abating until around 2021.

strap in, because the next few years are gonna be brilliant!

So the country bumpkins will have made thier fortune abroad and return here with Gold in great store to buy houses in the bog-end of the country thereby boosting the economy like a rocket?

lolosaur

chopper6 wrote: »

So the country bumpkins will have made thier fortune abroad and return here with Gold in great store to buy houses in the bog-end of the country thereby boosting the economy like a rocket?

Pretty much.

The knock on effect on someone buying a house is 10 fold.

Where they shop, where they buy, where they eat, where the sleep. every aspect of the community rurally is enhanced by one house being bought in the area. it creates jobs, it creates revenue streams, it creates profits. it creates a whole climate for rebuilding. If you get the fundamental principals of how money works and how economics works, you can see the far reaching consequences of the repatriation of irish citizens.

chopper6

lolosaur wrote: »

Pretty much.

The knock on effect on someone buying a house is 10 fold.

Where they shop, where they buy, where they eat, where the sleep. every aspect of the community rurally is enhanced by one house being bought in the area. it creates jobs, it creates revenue streams, it creates profits. it creates a whole climate for rebuilding. If you get the fundamental principals of how money works and how economics works, you can see the far reaching consequences of the repatriation of irish citizens.

But why would anybody buy a house in the middle of nowhere in teh first place?

If these suddenly rich people did decide tp come back here(for god knows what reason) they'd be buying properties where they actually want to live,just like everybody else.

You're living in a fantasy world.

gaius c

lolosaur wrote: »

what alot of you fail to see is variables that come into play from here on in. It is 5 years+ most people who have emmigrated. most of them will have been putting their few bob away and time to come home.

Serious influx of buyers. serious influx of money. about 70% of these will be rural people and they are going to snap up the cheap properties in longford and rosscommon and the back end of no where.

the influx of people brings with it jobs, money and growth. we are set for an extremely fruitful 2016 and with that being the start of the boom, i dont see property prices abating until around 2021.

strap in, because the next few years are gonna be brilliant!

lolosaur

chopper6 wrote: »

But why would anybody buy a house in the middle of nowhere in teh first place?

If these suddenly rich people did decide tp come back here(for god knows what reason) they'd be buying properties where they actually want to live,just like everybody else.

You're living in a fantasy world.

Because it is their home place. as i said, the predominant amount of emmigrants are from rural areas.
Also.

1) nowhere did i say rich.
2) plenty of reasons to come home.
3) properties where you want to live is subjective. where you want to live and where others want to live are two very different things.
4) My "fantasy world" is alot more grounded then your skewed view on property.

chopper6

lolosaur wrote: »

Because it is their home place. as i said, the predominant amount of emmigrants are from rural areas.
Also.

1) nowhere did i say rich.
2) plenty of reasons to come home.
3) properties where you want to live is subjective. where you want to live and where others want to live are two very different things.
4) My "fantasy world" is alot more grounded then your skewed view on property.

If they left here they did so for good reason...no employment prosepcts,no social life,overpriced housing etc etc.

What make you think anybody will want to come back and buy a gaff in Mohill,for example?

bluemartin

They might want to retire back to their own towns or villages, lots of oldrt Irish people come back from America Canada and the UK.

lolosaur

chopper6 wrote: »

If they left here they did so for good reason...no employment prosepcts,no social life,overpriced housing etc etc.

What make you think anybody will want to come back and buy a gaff in Mohill,for example?

The price.
upward trends in employment.
settling down time.

what reasons do any people have for coming home.

you are basing your judgements on ireland being a sh1thole rather than seeing the potential to be exploited. think of what ireland has to offer rather than what ireland has against it.

chopper6

lolosaur wrote: »

The price.
upward trends in employment.
settling down time.

what reasons do any people have for coming home.

you are basing your judgements on ireland being a sh1thole rather than seeing the potential to be exploited. think of what ireland has to offer rather than what ireland has against it.

What has ireland got to offer?