Property Prices Good or Bad?

mr_seer

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

The fat Zombie is not making too many mistakes. He did not do too mad with or debt restructuring last year. I agree however we have a Dublin based issue with housing. A carrot and stick approach is needed. Up at the match last weekend it amazed me the amount of under utilised and derelict property in Dublin. The amount of shops and business premised that are unused overhead often 2 floors or more empty. Derelict buildings being sat on for years. Some mixture of incentive/tax punishiment to change this might make a big difference to rental prices and free up housed further out in the city.

The problem is that the Fat Zombie has deliberately orchestrated this situation. He ultimately controls supply via (I) Nama, the Banks, the Central Bank (the CCMA) and the tax system as well as demand by (II) capital gains tax exemption and talking up the property market ("prices need to go up a bit more"). He is achieving exactly what he set out to do by rigging the market. The problem is that he is not all that smart.

The current prices are unsustainable with the average Dublin property running at a multiple of over 10x the average salary. When supply eventually catches up with repossessions, Nama disposals, a turn in sentiment amongst property owners or new builds coming on stream, prices are going to fall massively. He knows this (without realising the extent) and that is why he is trying to support demand by giving a guarantee to first time buyers. You can only rig a market for so long though. If he manages to get the banks lending and a first time buyer guarantee in, prices will rise yet further before eventually the arse will fall so badly out of the pyramid scheme he is creating that it will make 2006 look mild.

sperm_whale

mr_seer wrote: »

This is what happens when you have an Economic Management Council comprising of four teachers (the last one replaced by a failed accountancy lecturer). The worst thing about all of this is that the Labour party are in government. Pumping a housing bubble should be complete anathema to their supposed "core values". I'm no leftie but I'm pretty sure housing should be right up at the top of their agenda. They are more concerned about giving pay rises to the PS than anything it seems. The Fat Zombie who says house prices need to go up a bit more is running rings around them!

labour are fighting for their survival in the only way they know how , from their POV , raising public sector wages makes perfect sense as irish people are like kids and sweets , we follow those who offer us the most

as for property prices , irish people will always buy property if they can afford it , the property bubble ( mid nineties to 2007 ) wasnt all about wreckless banks , we cheered it on and are doing so again , their was only around three years of hard falls in prices in dublin , by the end of 2010 , the market had started to recover in the premium locations of dublin and by mid 2012 , the market was well into recovery across all parts of the capital and begining in galway and cork , the media was miles behind the recovery story and are now overcompensating in their reporting on house prices , they were also behind the slowdown prior to the crash , it began in early to mid 2006 but the media didnt whisper a word about until near the end of 2007

as for the arguement about their being no alternative to buying , rents in dublin are cheap by european capital standards and its very hard to be evicted , renting in ireland is very attractive despite the common perceptions , we have however no proper offical framework around long term renting , the whole area is endlessly grey but as such , its very difficult to get rid of a bad tenant in this country

euroboom13

I see housing estates where rents are 1200 and Ave mortgages are 2000e. Nothing has sold in 10yrs in these estates, and it will take interest rate hikes to flush out the over stretched. Buyers are quing up but wont sign up to mortgages with repayments of 1500e(why would they buy, just rent).

This is wide spread!!!INterest rate need to normalise to shake up the market and when they do, property prices will plummet, cause owners will be squeezed and new buyers wont get as much money.

Why isn`t this being highlighted?(because everybody wants prices to rise and mistakes to disappear, wont happen)

zl1whqvjs75cdy

I'm convinced its because a lot of people don't really understand mortgage interest rates and interest rates in general. Maybe that's a bit harsh actually, I think it is willful ignorance more than a lack of understanding. People get a mortgage paying say 1000 euro a month. They can afford that, they can budget for that. They just ignore the very real possibility of a rate increase and go with the typical "Ah sure it'll be grand" attitude.

gaius c

mr_seer wrote: »

The problem is that the Fat Zombie has deliberately orchestrated this situation. He ultimately controls supply via (I) Nama, the Banks, the Central Bank (the CCMA) and the tax system as well as demand by (II) capital gains tax exemption and talking up the property market ("prices need to go up a bit more"). He is achieving exactly what he set out to do by rigging the market. The problem is that he is not all that smart.

The current prices are unsustainable with the average Dublin property running at a multiple of over 10x the average salary. When supply eventually catches up with repossessions, Nama disposals, a turn in sentiment amongst property owners or new builds coming on stream, prices are going to fall massively. He knows this (without realising the extent) and that is why he is trying to support demand by giving a guarantee to first time buyers. You can only rig a market for so long though. If he manages to get the banks lending and a first time buyer guarantee in, prices will rise yet further before eventually the arse will fall so badly out of the pyramid scheme he is creating that it will make 2006 look mild.

I think you're giving him too much credit. He just wants to get through the stress tests in the autumn and line up for an election in 2015. If the banks fail those stress tests and additional capital is required, we're looking at a Cyprus-style bail-in and government collapse.

AlekSmart

sperm_whale wrote: »

.
Irish people will always buy property if they can afford it , the property bubble ( mid nineties to 2007 ) wasnt all about wreckless banks , We cheered it on and are doing so again , their was only around three years of hard falls in prices in dublin , by the end of 2010 , the market had started to recover in the premium locations of dublin and by mid 2012 , the market was well into recovery across all parts of the capital and begining in galway and cork,the media was miles behind the recovery story and are now overcompensating in their reporting on house prices , they were also behind the slowdown prior to the crash , it began in early to mid 2006 but the media didnt whisper a word about until near the end of 2007

As for the arguement about their being no alternative to buying , rents in dublin are cheap by european capital standards and its very hard to be evicted , renting in ireland is very attractive despite the common perceptions , We have however no proper offical framework around long term renting , the whole area is endlessly grey but as such , its very difficult to get rid of a bad tenant in this country

Concise and Correct !

With current Government policy appearing to be all about "Cheerleading" yet another Property Bubble (Not that there is much leading to be done) the only ray of sensible,sustainable light to enter the room may be the arrival of foreign corporate Residential Landlords.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/nama-sells-800-apartments-in-dublin-for-211m-30546629.html

I'm quite surprised that this scale of sell-off of Residential units was cleared by this Government,as with some focused attention on to the "Endlessly Grey" area in which Irish Long Term Residential tenancy currently exists,these Corporate Landlords have the potential to drag Irish Residential Renting into the 20th Century at least.

It is imperative that Rental Legislation is updated to focus on,and support GOOD Tenants and GOOD Landlords,rather than constantly being twisted and turned to assist the BAD elements of both !!

sperm_whale

the average rent in dublin is still around 50% cheaper than in london and not everyone in london pulls in a six figure sum working for JPM in the city so much of the rush to buy is simply down to our inherent thirst to own bricks and mortar , it runs deep , i held off on buying an appartment in 2012 ( with the aim of renting it out , i bought stocks instead after in the end deciding the train had left the station and that yields were only around 6% ) as i thought the cycle would take longer from top to bottom , once the new goverment arrived in 2011 , paralysis left and anyone with money swooped in and bought regardless of the fact that the banks were not lending at that point , to reiterate , irish people will buy if they can , its deeply ingrained

we have no definitive legislative framework ( comparable to many european nations ) here which might install a different attitude to property and make many people simply decide to rent for life but i cant see such an attitude being commonplace for many years , its entirely incorrect however that tenants in ireland have no rights , that arguement doesnt hold any water

received wisdom is often way off

mr_seer

gaius c wrote: »

I think you're giving him too much credit. He just wants to get through the stress tests in the autumn and line up for an election in 2015. If the banks fail those stress tests and additional capital is required, we're looking at a Cyprus-style bail-in and government collapse.

PTSB will fail gaius. As for the others, I'm convinced a deal has been made with the ECB. If the stress tests had any credibility, how could they possibly pass? There is no precedent for them to be able to realise the value supposedly inherent in their security through the courts system

AlekSmart

sperm_whale wrote: »

.

We have no definitive legislative framework ( comparable to many european nations ) here which might install a different attitude to property and make many people simply decide to rent for life but i cant see such an attitude being commonplace for many years , its entirely incorrect however that tenants in ireland have no rights , that arguement doesnt hold any water

Received wisdom is often way off

I am certainly NOT suggesting any such thing in relation to Tenants Rights.

I am well aware that for every half-researched media article on a poor tenant,forced to live in a car their is an ignored one relating to a Landlord being forced to watch their property being trashed and reduced in value by a tenant who avails of every State sponsored support before simply upping and moving on at the 11th hour,all with absolute impunity.

The exact scenario which the superior legislative framework in Mainland Europe minimizes,if not,eliminates.

The lack of this Defined Leglislative framework is THE single greatest impediment to solving the current "Homelessness" crisis,or at least the elements of it which the Irish Media currently fixate upon.

Clean,quality,well maintained basic accomodation in tandem with simple leglislation respecting and facilitating Long Term Rental agreements (Subsidised into old-age if necessary) would,at a stroke,allow a much needed reality to re-enter the Residential Property sector

gaius c

mr_seer wrote: »

PTSB will fail gaius. As for the others, I'm convinced a deal has been made with the ECB. If the stress tests had any credibility, how could they possibly pass? There is no precedent for them to be able to realise the value supposedly inherent in their security through the courts system

There's no doubt that the stress tests will be a carefully staged pantomime and just to prevent the obvious laughter at the charade, one "bad bank" will be taken out and shot on the stage, splattering the children in the front row with blood & brain matter.

The Irish banks don't really matter anymore because the sovereign cleaned up that mess and the ECB will keep us undead until the next big crisis changes the field of play.

The bigger problem is other banks.
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0901/640697-banco-espirito-santo/
If the ECB need to change tack and tell us that we need to sort ourselves out because they have bigger problems to deal with, we are in for a world of pain and probable bail-ins. The cash buyers will probably feel vindicated if that was to happen.

bbsrs

Oh no , not again. http://m.rte.ie/news/2014/0903/641302-house-hunters/

gaius c

bbsrs wrote: »

Oh no , not again. http://m.rte.ie/news/2014/0903/641302-house-hunters/

23 year old retail workers with €30k saved and able to get quarter million euro mortgages?

The system is working!

L1011

gaius c wrote: »

23 year old retail workers with €30k saved and able to get quarter million euro mortgages?

The system is working!

Could be worse, could be borrowing 300k for furniture and a holiday for the stress after...

Frank Lee Midere

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I'm convinced its because a lot of people don't really understand mortgage interest rates and interest rates in general. Maybe that's a bit harsh actually, I think it is willful ignorance more than a lack of understanding. People get a mortgage paying say 1000 euro a month. They can afford that, they can budget for that. They just ignore the very real possibility of a rate increase and go with the typical "Ah sure it'll be grand" attitude.

But the banks shouldn't be lending to people who can "just afford" 1000.

That said retail rates are fairly high. If the ECB moves up the spread between retail and ECB/tracker rates will just ease rather than retail rate hikes. So there is leeway there.

euroboom13

ok....It is no excuses buying an over priced asset for the benefit of having a family home! How does that help, in fact I see a lot of couples, at breaking point for doing ,exactly that!

Example say 290k 3bed semi
Finance -1500 a month

If you think 1500e a month is base line for buying your home ,when rates are at 0.15,do you understand that in the same breath you are agreeing that at 4.1% ecb rate your repayments would go to 2200 a month

---

and who in the queue you are biding against understands this too. VERY FEW understand

200k @4.7 standard rate today=1040 per month.... add 4%=1600
300k @4.7 standard rate today=1550 per month....add 4%=2600
400k @4.7 standard rate today=2100 per month ....add 4%=3150
500k@4.7 standard rate today=2500 per month .....add 4%=3900(every month)

Higher rates were here 5yrs ago and Will return!(what effect will that have on your family )
Now I am not trying to terrify people,just adding some reason!

Remember.
Its the people you are bidding against need to be aware also!

Frank Lee Midere

euroboom13 wrote: »

ok....It is no excuses buying an over priced asset for the benefit of having a family home! How does that help, in fact I see a lot of couples, at breaking point for doing ,exactly that!

Example say 290k 3bed semi
Finance -1500 a month

If you think 1500e a month is base line for buying your home ,when rates are at 0.15,do you understand that in the same breath you are agreeing that at 4.1% ecb rate your repayments would go to 2200 a month

---

and who in the queue you are biding against understands this too. VERY FEW understand

200k @4.7 standard rate today=1040 per month.... add 4%=1600
300k @4.7 standard rate today=1550 per month....add 4%=2600
400k @4.7 standard rate today=2100 per month ....add 4%=3150
500k@4.7 standard rate today=2500 per month .....add 4%=3900(every month)

Higher rates were here 5yrs ago and Will return!(what effect will that have on your family )
Now I am not trying to terrify people,just adding some reason!

Remember.
Its the people you are bidding against need to be aware also!

But the retail rates are far higher than the ECB rates. So if interest rates at the ECB level increase by 4% then the retail rate spread from the trackers will decrease. Will ECB rates go to 7/8%?

euroboom13

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

But the retail rates are far higher than the ECB rates. So if interest rates at the ECB level increase by 4% then the retail rate spread from the trackers will decrease. Will ECB rates go to 7/8%?

4.1% is about average so it is very likely that the Esb rate could go to 7/8% pushing retail rates into the teens.... And after the extremely low period we have had, it wouldnt be crazy to see an opposite extreme as impossible.

Very delicate subject and not one that many Irish people like to think about.

We will be accused of being paranoid!(thats why I picked low Ave)

Frank Lee Midere

euroboom13 wrote: »

4.1% is about average so it is very likely that the Esb rate could go to 7/8% pushing retail rates into the teens.... And after the extremely low period we have had, it would be crazy to see an opposite extreme as impossible.

Very delicate subject and not one that many Irish people like to think about.

We will be accused of being paranoid!(thats why I picked low Ave)

I don't think we will see ECB rates that high. And you are missing my main point - the spread between retail and tracker rates will fall as the ECB rates rise. In other words ECB of 5% = tracker and retail of 6% not retail of tracker + 4%.

euroboom13

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

I don't think we will see ECB rates that high. And you are missing my main point - the spread between retail and tracker rates will fall as the ECB rates rise. In other words ECB of 5% = tracker and retail of 6% not retail of tracker + 4%.

Retail variable rate is +4.5% now ,can't see it dropping to +1%.....(tracker premium is fixed)

euroboom13

I don't see ecb rate going above 5% but anything above 3% changes everything property related in this country

Frank Lee Midere

euroboom13 wrote: »

Retail variable rate is +4.5% now ,can't see it dropping to +1%.....(tracker premium is fixed)

It was about the same as the trackers. Because so many people were on trackers the reduction in trackers caused loss of income to banks which they made up for by increasing retail and non tracker rates. The opposite calculus applies when rates rise.

However trackers will he shagged when rates rise.

euroboom13

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/news-UK_home_prices_likely_to_fall_30_over_four_years-1964?utm_content=7571901&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

gaius c

About time for London. Attempting to survive there has been a miserable experience for my friends who moved over.

coolshannagh28

We are in for a sustained period of low to negative interest rates the Eurozone is floundering in deflation . The big hedge funds and institutions are taking the QE in lieu of interest and making much higher yields pumping it into the stock markets and down their own throats ,this is the way of the future as any increase in rates will cause catastrophe down on the ground.
The government strategy on house prices is simple ,curtail supply in Dublin ,let prices float higher to encourage a flight of buyers out to the wider commuter belt which remains stagnant ,eventually some form of equilibrium will arrive as the rest of the country catches up and at some point the banks balance sheets might allow them to function again. Its a work out that just might be successful as they have the assets in NAMA to leak into the market if it gets too hot in Dublin.

NZ_2014

Property Prices Good or Bad?

Bad for some, good for others.

Its been a rollercoaster in Ireland, not good for those who have been stung in say 2007 or missed the boat on the cheap prices of 2012!

At least in other countries prices may be higher but there hasn`t been such extreme movements! (yet)

euroboom13

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

We are in for a sustained period of low to negative interest rates the Eurozone is floundering in deflation . The big hedge funds and institutions are taking the QE in lieu of interest and making much higher yields pumping it into the stock markets and down their own throats ,this is the way of the future as any increase in rates will cause catastrophe down on the ground.
The government strategy on house prices is simple ,curtail supply in Dublin ,let prices float higher to encourage a flight of buyers out to the wider commuter belt which remains stagnant ,eventually some form of equilibrium will arrive as the rest of the country catches up and at some point the banks balance sheets might allow them to function again. Its a work out that just might be successful as they have the assets in NAMA to leak into the market if it gets too hot in Dublin.

You sound like you have just been reading Sunday papers, and believing what you want!

Rates will rise, it is wishful thinking to believe that Europe will hold rates low while uk / USA raise theirs.(its a myth to think higher rates are catastrophic ,we had 4.1% only 5yrs ago)

Who will be buying property in the 250k/400k bracket... certainly not average wage earners!

Stop reading childish opinions in the papers or your families will be in the same 2007 hole you thought you avoided!seriously

AlekSmart

euroboom13 wrote: »

.
Who will be buying property in the 250k/400k bracket... certainly not average wage earners!

Quite THE question altogether !

The current Millers Glen production in Swords has resumed the Marketing crusade to somehow or other persuade the Irish Public that a wage of €23,000 p/a will allow you to OWN your own little place and live happily ever after.

Whether or not there are enough folks left who will actually believe this tripe is open to debate,but the indications are that yes,we have a strong pent-up demand for misery.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0903/641302-house-hunters/

By far and away THE quote of the year thus far has to be this nugget.......

Frank Quinn said the Government may need to "drive investors out" of the residential property market in order to make room for first-time buyers which could be done by increasing stamp duty.

Brian Cowen's oft overlooked prediction that Irish Living Standards will fall by 10% really does need to be considered and debated...although perhaps actually experiencing this is necessary before we can learn to live within it's limits ?

moxin

AlekSmart wrote: »

The current Millers Glen production in Swords has resumed the Marketing crusade to somehow or other persuade the Irish Public that a wage of €23,000 p/a will allow you to OWN your own little place and live happily ever after.

Whether or not there are enough folks left who will actually believe this tripe is open to debate,but the indications are that yes,we have a strong pent-up demand for misery.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0903/641302-house-hunters/

The estate launch flopped, its a lack of that much talked about pent up demand http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/crowds-fail-to-materialise-at-launch-of-swords-development-1.1920564

coolshannagh28

euroboom13 wrote: »

You sound like you have just been reading Sunday papers, and believing what you want!

Rates will rise, it is wishful thinking to believe that Europe will hold rates low while uk / USA raise theirs.(its a myth to think higher rates are catastrophic ,we had 4.1% only 5yrs ago)

Who will be buying property in the 250k/400k bracket... certainly not average wage earners!

Stop reading childish opinions in the papers or your families will be in the same 2007 hole you thought you avoided!seriously

Eurozone is still cutting rates and UK, US will rise very slowly if at all .,the volume of QE in the markets will cause a crash if interest rates rise in any meaningful way . Don't patronise me by the way my opinion is as valid than yours !

euroboom13

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Eurozone is still cutting rates and UK, US will rise very slowly if at all .,the volume of QE in the markets will cause a crash if interest rates rise in any meaningful way . Don't patronise me by the way my opinion is as valid than yours !

Sorry wasn't patronising you but your opinion is exactly what I am reading in the papers.

Rates have fallen dramatically and it would be very naïve to think that the opposite is impossible! The truth of the mater is that without normal interest rates and healthy inflation we are going nowhere.

So my point is ,think for yourself and don't let yourself believe that we are going to have non aggressive banking for long.

coolshannagh28

Ok, but remember we are not living in normal times I feel the US will struggle to raise rates if markets respond negatively as they do at any threat and the EU is still on the downslope on rates and they will not rise in the near or medium future .The papers do reflect what is happening in the world albeit with spin on but normal banking and rates are not feasible at the minute

gaius c

AlekSmart wrote: »

Quite THE question altogether !

The current Millers Glen production in Swords has resumed the Marketing crusade to somehow or other persuade the Irish Public that a wage of €23,000 p/a will allow you to OWN your own little place and live happily ever after.

Whether or not there are enough folks left who will actually believe this tripe is open to debate,but the indications are that yes,we have a strong pent-up demand for misery.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0903/641302-house-hunters/

By far and away THE quote of the year thus far has to be this nugget.......



Brian Cowen's oft overlooked prediction that Irish Living Standards will fall by 10% really does need to be considered and debated...although perhaps actually experiencing this is necessary before we can learn to live within it's limits ?

Aye but that was an average 10% drop. The reality is that some segments of society will suffer far more than 10% while others will not suffer much at all.

Right now, young people are being screwed to bail out the debt-laden baby boomers and preserve their pensions.

euroboom13

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Ok, but remember we are not living in normal times I feel the US will struggle to raise rates if markets respond negatively as they do at any threat and the EU is still on the downslope on rates and they will not rise in the near or medium future .The papers do reflect what is happening in the world albeit with spin on but normal banking and rates are not feasible at the minute

Cash loves deflation, investment love`s inflation

Low rates does nothing to encourage investment.
Low rates inhibits investment.
Who would put hard earned cash on the table against interest free borrowed cash.(simple Simon maybe)

Rates up, investment up, inflation up, in that order!
Why do we need low rates ,it makes no sense and the banks know this and wont lend!

Prepare and pry for rate raises or else we will not move forward, only sideways!

Can anyone explain where low rates is helping, apart from allowing the peaceful introduction of new taxes!

Dob74

euroboom13 wrote: »

Cash loves deflation, investment love`s inflation

Low rates does nothing to encourage investment.
Low rates inhibits investment.
Who would put hard earned cash on the table against interest free borrowed cash.(simple Simon maybe)

Rates up, investment up, inflation up, in that order!
Why do we need low rates ,it makes no sense and the banks know this and wont lend!

Prepare and pry for rate raises or else we will not move forward, only sideways!

Can anyone explain where low rates is helping, apart from allowing the peaceful introduction of new taxes!

Low rates help investment, the problem now is finding credit worthy businesses.
Would you want your money in a bank earning little or no interest.
Or invest it and make a big return.

Anyone who has cash now is made. Assets are cheap to buy now is the time to invest.

coolshannagh28

Rates are the traditional tool to level out supply demand and investment, in this particular cycle they have failed because of the severity of the depression ,the next weapon is QE and there is limited evidence that it helps anyone except hedge funds and investment banks ,despite that it is on the table now and we can use it to soak up the bad debt still in the banks. Combined with a reasonable rise countrywide in house prices some sort of normality might return to the economy.

euroboom13

Dob74 wrote: »

Low rates help investment, the problem now is finding credit worthy businesses.
Would you want your money in a bank earning little or no interest.
Or invest it and make a big return.

Anyone who has cash now is made. Assets are cheap to buy now is the time to invest.

If this deflation is genuine ,my cash under the bed is increasing in value. I will only remove the cash from under the bed and invest when rates rise or inflation devalues it.

Property is my favourite investment but very few bargains at the moment ,mainly because I am still competing with cheap money.I will buy when rates force borrowings down and I get to buy in a smaller market place.This is what people are blind to.
But it is coming!

AlekSmart

euroboom13 wrote: »

If this deflation is genuine ,my cash under the bed is increasing in value. I will only remove the cash from under the bed and invest when rates rise or inflation devalues it.

Property is my favourite investment but very few bargains at the moment ,mainly because I am still competing with cheap money.I will buy when rates force borrowings down and I get to buy in a smaller market place.This is what people are blind to.
But it is coming!

I wonder what effect on Euroboom's waiting time our President's thinking would have....

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/president-calls-for-return-of-council-housing-estates-30589496.html

Worthwhile contribution to the greater debate ??

fliball123

moxin wrote: »

The estate launch flopped, its a lack of that much talked about pent up demand http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/crowds-fail-to-materialise-at-launch-of-swords-development-1.1920564

eh it might of been over stated with the queues but I believe the first phase is more or less sold out..and there is a lot of pent up demand you only have to see how the allsop auction just went aswell...

euroboom13

If property is at such a low, shouldn't we be making record yields?

After expenses/taxes ,true yields are very poor, definitely no bargains !(rate hikes will kill it more, and before you say rates wont go up ,the definite truth is, they wont go down!)

Keep your money in your pockets my friends ,don't believe the rubbish property ramping ,it is based on fairy-tales!

I am not saying that property prices aren't rising, they are ,but most owners are holding and most buyers are the last few village idiot`s ,thinking they are smart (without studying rates). Our supply of idiot`s is depleting, see next year!

euroboom13

fliball123 wrote: »

eh it might of been over stated with the queues but I believe the first phase is more or less sold out..and there is a lot of pent up demand you only have to see how the allsop auction just went aswell...

Property sold at the auction was over priced ,about 7/8% yield for a lot of risk, and with the same logic ,them houses were insane(4% yield). Auction 33% withdrawn or unsold, fact unlike papers 86% sold

So, please do you home work, before you follow the pied piper ,down the same hole ,half the country are all ready in! good luck

stevedublin

euroboom13 wrote: »

Property sold at the auction was over priced ,about 7/8% yield for a lot of risk, and with the same logic ,them houses were insane(4% yield).

Maybe the buyers were not investors and so not interested in yield

euroboom13

stevedublin wrote: »

Maybe the buyers were not investors and so not interested in yield

If they are not investing, what is it they are doing?

fliball123

euroboom13 wrote: »

Property sold at the auction was over priced ,about 7/8% yield for a lot of risk, and with the same logic ,them houses were insane(4% yield). Auction 33% withdrawn or unsold, fact unlike papers 86% sold

So, please do you home work, before you follow the pied piper ,down the same hole ,half the country are all ready in! good luck

Have you a link for your figure of 33% not sold? I lke you seen the 86% and that a lot went for above the price that it was advertised at?

euroboom13

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a link for your figure of 33% not sold? I lke you seen the 86% and that a lot went for above the price that it was advertised at?

Print off the results and count up how many sold on the day out of 262 ,circa 180 properties.
Technically, and if you were trying to emphasis its success, if you count withdrawn as sales you might get 86% but very misleading.

Also we are told it had the biggest cash draw but on percentage of property on offer, it didnt create as much of a cash turnover as last one.

Just pointing out what we are being spun, you decide why? more deception, why not give an honest account?(probably because we would all like to believe we were returning to stable property market)

Last point:
Rent versus mortgage is the key but while banks are foregoing return through rate cuts ,we will not have a genuine safe property market!(unless you believe , like many ,that the banks will forego return for ever)

gaius c

fliball123 wrote: »

Have you a link for your figure of 33% not sold? I lke you seen the 86% and that a lot went for above the price that it was advertised at?

I did a count of the final results. Came out at 29%.

euroboom13

gaius c wrote: »

I did a count of the final results. Came out at 29%.

29% is twice the 14% we are being told, pays to find your own facts!
Also a lot of buyers were buying for passion not return ,which isn`t a sustainable business plan.

Returns on properties that were bought did not meet any business model I know, yields before taxes and expanse were too low!

Cash is still king until ,borrowed money gets more expensive!

stevedublin

euroboom13 wrote: »

If they are not investing, what is it they are doing?

owner occupiers?

euroboom13

stevedublin wrote: »

owner occupiers?

Owner occupiers ,wither they they like it are not, are investing.

They are also gambling that the capitol value will rise and that there repayments wont.

if they lose the bet, like nearly everyone else has in the last 10yrs, they will be compromising there own/family future.(and that's when it will hit home)

So, learn more about what rate changes will do to repayments and then to average house prices, and then ,fair enough ,make your own bed!

But don't just buy because word on the ground is bullish!(bull shxx)

THINK

chopper6

euroboom13 wrote: »

Owner occupiers ,wither they they like it are not, are investing.

They are also gambling that the capitol value will rise and that there repayments wont.

if they lose the bet, like nearly everyone else has in the last 10yrs, they will be compromising there own/family future.(and that's when it will hit home)

So, learn more about what rate changes will do to repayments and then to average house prices, and then ,fair enough ,make your own bed!

But don't just buy because word on the ground is bullish!(bull shxx)

THINK

Can you clarify what you mean by rate changes?

It's not something we hear very much about..

Volthar

chopper6 wrote: »

Can you clarify what you mean by rate changes?

It's not something we hear very much about..

Quite simple. If you borrow say 200k over 30 yrs @ 4.7% your monthly repayments will be at €1037
If someone thinks they are about just to manage to pay it they must think what happens The interest rate goes up and I can assure you that sooner or later they will. If it only goes up to 5.2% monthly repayments will increase to €1098
At 5.7% - €1160

Funny thing is that theoretically your bank can change it at their discretion. However it hugely depends on ECB rates that curently are at historical low 0.05%. In 2008 they were at 4.25%

Imagine what will happen with your mortgage repayments whenwe are back at 2008 levels. Your bank will transfer increase in % rates directly to you. Instead of todays 4.7% you will pay 8.9% interest and that means €1594 per month versus todays €1037.

It is a grand scheme to rip you off and make you a modern slave.