General Rugby Discussion

English Lurker

Podge_irl wrote: »

POC will have retired before the next lions tour. Even if he hasn't he'll be two years from his last international game. Not gonna happen.

AWJ, Lawes, Launchbury, Henderson etc. we won't be short of top options.

Ford v sexton will be an interesting battle. If Schmidt actually is coach I can't see sexton not being the starting 10 but Ford is a super player.

One of them is a good defender, the other is a bad one; Ford's as natural a ball in hand fly-half as you'll ever see but I doubt that'll be much of a battle providing Sexton is fit and in form because the gulf in defence is that big. Biggar and Russell will provide more of a battle imo, as could Slade if he develops right.

Fireball07 wrote: »

I didn't watch much Premiership last season, that's fair enough. I suppose it was a bit hypocritical of me to drop Healy for lack of form and put in someone who was also injured. There isn't many other LHs of a high standard outside of those though, McGrath was probably the best of the lot really. I wouldn't be the biggest fan of Mako. Hopefully Healy can find his best form again, if he reaches it, he should be a shoo-in.

It looks like Corbs might have lost weight; given he's been struggling with a knee injury, that would make some sense. If he has and it's not temporary, that might eventually be the end of his elite career, as he doesn't seem to have the same power. I'm of the wait and see variety there.

Mako Vunipola's scrummaging has improved markedly in the AP. If he can sustain that and bring it to international level, I think he's a big candidate for the next Lions tour. Not just literally.

Lot of competition for full-back spot, Brown wasn't quite at his best during the 6N. Still a class act though. But with Halfpenny, Kearney, Hogg all there too, he'd need to be at the top of his game. (Liam Williams, Nick Abendanon, Delon Armitage outside bets?)

Good player, but I prefer Watson tbh.

Bendy simply makes too many errors for a game of that magnitude. At this date, the only way I see a full-back other than Halfpenny is:

a) He's injured
b) He's playing wing

There's a scurrilous internet rumour to the effect that the England management don't really rate Anthony Watson. Whether the originator was talking balls or not can't be determined, but I'm repeating it largely because I share the view; he's a fantastic athlete with a lot to learn about rugby. Give me Nowell any day, who's a very good athlete with a very good rugby brain.

Tbh I wouldn't have either in Lions contention today, or any England back three player for that matter. Actually, short of the scrum-half of the day, Joseph and a behaving Tuilagi, I don't really see England backs in contention for a Lions tour as things stand (although I'd probably be sadly wrong).

bilston

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ford v sexton will be an interesting battle. If Schmidt actually is coach I can't see sexton not being the starting 10 but Ford is a super player.

Two years is a long time. It will be interesting to see how Russell goes over the next couple of seasons, he could be in the mix too.

total former

I don't think Halfpenny will feature at all. Take his goal kicking out of the equation and he's barely in the top 5 in his position.

bilston

irishbucsfan wrote: »

But if it was today who are the 14s available, Cuthbert? I think he's probably a decent shout but I think there's definitely a decision to be made between the two. Then there's Rokoduguni who could well be the ultimate answer. I don't think any of them are the obvious answer though (and it's not Tommy Seymour god bless him).

Watson? Not really sure what his best position is but he'd be someone who certainly by 2017 will surely be there or thereabouts and even now probably wouldn't be far away be it on the wing or at FB.

.ak

total former wrote: »

I don't think Halfpenny will feature at all. Take his goal kicking out of the equation and he's barely in the top 5 in his position.

Ah I'd disagree with that. He's a brilliant attacking full back and is solid in placement and in the air, very clever attacker and lovely distributor. Depending on the game plan he's better than Kearney in some regards.

Brown has took a bit of a step backwards. If the squad was being picked tomorrow I think the full backs traveling would be halfpenny Kearney and Hogg.

English Lurker

total former wrote: »

I don't think Halfpenny will feature at all. Take his goal kicking out of the equation and he's barely in the top 5 in his position.

Leaving aside my disagreement with the statement as it stands, why would you take the goal kicking out of the equation for arguably the best goal kicker in international rugby? On goalkicking grounds alone I'd expect him to start.

That said, I think Halfpenny's also the single strongest defensive full-back we have available by some margin, possibly the only one where I can't pick a significant flaw with their defensive play. Not bad in attack either, mind, although there are better out there, but his defensive qualities are outstanding.

total former

English Lurker wrote: »

Leaving aside my disagreement with the statement as it stands, why would you take the goal kicking out of the equation for arguably the best goal kicker in international rugby? On goalkicking grounds alone I'd expect him to start.

It is very arguable that he is the best goal-kicker in international rugby, but that only becomes relevant if he's significantly better than the alternative goal-kickers in the team.

I'd say both he and Sexton are 85% kickers, whatever difference there is (either way) is minimal and certainly not remotely enough to say Halfpenny must be in the team.

If I said Greg Laidlaw should be in the next Lions tour for his goal-kicking, you'd (rightly) tell me I was mental...

That said, I think Halfpenny's also the single strongest defensive full-back we have available by some margin, possibly the only one where I can't pick a significant flaw with their defensive play. Not bad in attack either, mind, although there are better out there, but his defensive qualities are outstanding.

That's a stronger argument for his inclusion, and he's definitely very solid in defence. I just think Liam Williams will be breathing down his neck for Wales very soon, particularly if Gatland departs after the RWC, Brown will hopefully regain form and Hogg just has so much ability.

matthew8

But Halfpenny is a better kicker than Sexton, he's 49 for 58 (84.5%) while Sexton is 58 for 73 (79.5%) in 2014/2015 internationals. Bigger range too.

English Lurker

total former wrote: »

It is very arguable that he is the best goal-kicker in international rugby, but that only becomes relevant if he's significantly better than the alternative goal-kickers in the team.

I'd say both he and Sexton are 85% kickers, whatever difference there is (either way) is minimal and certainly not remotely enough to say Halfpenny must be in the team.

If I said Greg Laidlaw should be in the next Lions tour for his goal-kicking, you'd (rightly) tell me I was mental...

Assuming this site is right, http://rugby.statbunker.com/, then you're half-right - Halfpenny is an 85pc goal kicker. Sexton is a 79pc goal kicker. That's a significant margin in my eyes.

And Laidlaw's goalkicking would be of interest to me in picking the next tour and I've seen plenty advance claims for him based on it.

That's a stronger argument for his inclusion, and he's definitely very solid in defence. I just think Liam Williams will be breathing down his neck for Wales very soon, particularly if Gatland departs after the RWC, Brown will hopefully regain form and Hogg just has so much ability.

Liam Williams seems to be far more of a problem for Cuthbert as things stand.

total former

English Lurker wrote: »

Assuming this site is right, http://rugby.statbunker.com/, then you're half-right - Halfpenny is an 85pc goal kicker. Sexton is a 79pc goal kicker. That's a significant margin in my eyes.

matthew8 wrote: »

But Halfpenny is a better kicker than Sexton, he's 49 for 58 (84.5%) while Sexton is 58 for 73 (79.5%) in 2014/2015 internationals. Bigger range too.

Depends on what stats you want to use, doesn't it?

If you look at the Top 14 this season, they're level. If you look at the 2015 6N, then Sexton is the better kicker. I don't think Halfpenny has a significantly longer range either, neither of them are Frans Steyn like.

All of this just emphasises my point that the gap between them is not so big as to demand Halfpenny's inclusion. If they needed a tie-breaker between Halfpenny and another equally good FB, then fair enough, but it shouldn't be a reason to pick him.

Edit: I'm not sure about that statbunker site, it's telling me Ian Madigan was 100% in this year's 6N when I know that's not right..

matthew8

total former wrote: »

Depends on what stats you want to use, doesn't it?

If you look at the Top 14 this season, they're level. If you look at the 2015 6N, then Sexton is the better kicker. I don't think Halfpenny has a significantly longer range either, neither of them are Frans Steyn like.

All of this just emphasises my point that the gap between them is not so big as to demand Halfpenny's inclusion. If they needed a tie-breaker between Halfpenny and another equally good FB, then fair enough, but it shouldn't be a reason to pick him.

Why would you only use the 2015 6 nations? They haven't changed as kickers since the start of the 2014 season. Their Top 14 stats are blatantly false too, according to them half the kickers in the top 14 have a better success rate than anyone in internationals. Halfpenny can put about 5 more metres on his kicks, you don't ever see Sexton going for one just inside his own half.

duckysauce

total former wrote: »

Depends on what stats you want to use, doesn't it?

If you look at the Top 14 this season, they're level. If you look at the 2015 6N, then Sexton is the better kicker. I don't think Halfpenny has a significantly longer range either, neither of them are Frans Steyn like.

All of this just emphasises my point that the gap between them is not so big as to demand Halfpenny's inclusion. If they needed a tie-breaker between Halfpenny and another equally good FB, then fair enough, but it shouldn't be a reason to pick him.

Edit: I'm not sure about that statbunker site, it's telling me Ian Madigan was 100% in this year's 6N when I know that's not right..

Ian gets 100% here too for 2015 http://www.rbs6nations.com/en/matchcentre/match_centre.php?section=playstatsaway&fixid=183811#SUAEmqtoyCuVrMk1.97

Swiwi.

:eek:

Didn't take long for a parody to appear either

errlloyd

I very much agree with total Former on this. If you have a strong goal kicking outhalf then you shouldn't compromise on a ball playing fifteen in favour of a kicker.

If Halfpenny was just a kicker, I'd agree.

But he's worth his place in a 15 without the place kicking!

Swiwi.

errlloyd wrote: »

I very much agree with total Former on this. If you have a strong goal kicking outhalf then you shouldn't compromise on a ball playing fifteen in favour of a kicker.

I'm sort of middle ground. If Halfpenny was a goalkicker, and no more (I'm thinking Neil Jenkins here), I would agree. However, all points possible will likely be of the essence during the Lions Tour, and I'm sorry, but Halfpenny is definitely a more accurate, more reliable, longer range goalkicker than Sexton. Of the B&I countries, the only player I would consider starting in place of Halfpenny would be Hogg, if Schmidt wants to try more of an out-and-out attacking style. Halfpenny's goalkicking on the last Lions tour was just awesome, and it would definitely strike fear into All Black loosies living on the edge and weary about giving away a penalty.

Also, Sexton's form faded a bit towards the end of the 6N, he would currently be frontrunner for the Lions 10, and rightly so, but 2017 still a way off.

total former

Swiwi. wrote: »

I'm sort of middle ground. If Halfpenny was a goalkicker, and no more (I'm thinking Neil Jenkins here), I would agree. However, all points possible will likely be of the essence during the Lions Tour, and I'm sorry, but Halfpenny is definitely a more accurate, more reliable, longer range goalkicker than Sexton. Of the B&I countries, the only player I would consider starting in place of Halfpenny would be Hogg, if Schmidt wants to try more of an out-and-out attacking style. Halfpenny's goalkicking on the last Lions tour was just awesome, and it would definitely strike fear into All Black loosies living on the edge and weary about giving away a penalty.

Also, Sexton's form faded a bit towards the end of the 6N, he would currently be frontrunner for the Lions 10, and rightly so, but 2017 still a way off.

Neil Jenkins is the perfect example of why the Halfpenny argument doesn't stand up.

Jenkins was included in the 1997 Lions because the outstanding fly-half was Townsend whose goal-kicking was pretty shocking at times. There was a chasm of difference between them in terms of goal-kicking; that gap just isn't there between Halfpenny and Sexton.

Halfpenny's goal-kicking on the last Lions tour was awesome? Really? Not in the tests it wasn't.

But you're right, 2017 is a long way off, we could well be arguing over whether Sexton even makes the team ahead of Ford or Russell, or likewise Halfpenny might not be in the mix either (which I think is more likely, which is what kicked all of this off...)

Swiwi.

total former wrote: »

Neil Jenkins is the perfect example of why the Halfpenny argument doesn't stand up.

Jenkins was included in the 1997 Lions because the outstanding fly-half was Townsend whose goal-kicking was pretty shocking at times. There was a chasm of difference between them in terms of goal-kicking; that gap just isn't there between Halfpenny and Sexton.

Halfpenny's goal-kicking on the last Lions tour was awesome? Really? Not in the tests it wasn't.

But you're right, 2017 is a long way off, we could well be arguing over whether Sexton even makes the team ahead of Ford or Russell, or likewise Halfpenny might not be in the mix either (which I think is more likely, which is what kicked all of this off...)

I'm too bored to debate endlessly over this. But if the Lions are leading by 5 with a few minutes to play, and are awarded a penalty about 40 out slightly on the angle, I'd take Halfpenny over Sexton for sure.

I also regret breaking my own rule by foolishly using the GRD discussion to post a Lions-related post...I couldn't face a Lions 2017 thread just yet...

total former

Swiwi. wrote: »

I'm too bored to debate endlessly over this. But if the Lions are leading by 5 with a few minutes to play, and are awarded a penalty about 40 out slightly on the angle, I'd take Halfpenny over Sexton for sure.

I also regret breaking my own rule by foolishly using the GRD discussion to post a Lions-related post...I couldn't face a Lions 2017 thread just yet...

It would appear you're not.

But am I the only one who remembers this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJoozOFKzTk

Sangre

duckysauce wrote: »

Ian gets 100% here too for 2015 http://www.rbs6nations.com/en/matchcentre/match_centre.php?section=playstatsaway&fixid=183811#SUAEmqtoyCuVrMk1.97

Must be attributing the missed kick to Sexton then.

Swiwi.

total former wrote: »

It would appear you're not.

Nah, I am. I've said my bit.

aimee1

English Lurker wrote: »

Leaving aside my disagreement with the statement as it stands, why would you take the goal kicking out of the equation for arguably the best goal kicker in international rugby? On goalkicking grounds alone I'd expect him to start.

That said, I think Halfpenny's also the single strongest defensive full-back we have available by some margin, possibly the only one where I can't pick a significant flaw with their defensive play. Not bad in attack either, mind, although there are better out there, but his defensive qualities are outstanding.

Halfpennys tackle technique as demonstrated in rome in march is a flaw.

Buer

Halfpenny kicked excellently in 2013 including the test matches. The missed kick in the final minute of the second test was one of only two he missed in that game and was just outside his range. It was on target and dropped short by a few yards. He wouldn't have even taken that on unless he had no choice.

He was 8/9 in the final test and 5/6 in the first test. That gives him 82% for the test series (it'd have been 86% without the final kick in the second test). Given a number of his kicks were far from handy in a massive pressure environment, that's an excellent return.

Bazzo

aimee1 wrote: »

Halfpennys tackle technique as demonstrated in rome in march is a flaw.

I was gonna point this out. I seem to remember him getting his head on the wrong side of a tackle on numerous occasions, so I wouldn't exactly describe him as "superb in defence".

I also don't buy the "best goal kicker in the world" hype that you hear about him so much. He is a very very very good kicker but particularly last season he missed several crunch kicks that were fairly straightforward(same can be said for Sexton).

English Lurker

Bazzo wrote: »

I was gonna point this out. I seem to remember him getting his head on the wrong side of a tackle on numerous occasions, so I wouldn't exactly describe him as "superb in defence".

I also don't buy the "best goal kicker in the world" hype that you hear about him so much. He is a very very very good kicker but particularly last season he missed several crunch kicks that were fairly straightforward(same can be said for Sexton).

Who's better? His overall international average is better than both Laidlaw and Morne Steyn as far as I'm aware. I accept that flat averages are a fairly crude measuring tool and the sites we have for use aren't completely reliable. Fortunately, some people are trying to make models that reflect variables that include such things as angle, distance and so on - they all point at Halfpenny too;

http://www.goalkickers.co.za/ is the main one, but there are a few longer blog posts on limited time periods (mostly using the same data) here and here - http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/rating-rugby-union-kickers-by-kick.html and http://www.gilbertrugbyblog.com/international-season-kicking-statistics/

I'm curious as to what crucial goals you think Halfpenny missed last season as looking back at Wales' and Toulon's matches, I can't find any where the margin of defeat could have been changed if Halfpenny had got every missed kick.


Finally, Halfpenny's method of tackling has some pretty significant downsides for himself, but his team mates have nothing to complain about in terms of bad missed tackles.

Old article, but very good imo.

All about the referee's impact on the game

Liked this section

Emotion – the inherent bias when working backwards

Possibly could be one for the stickies!

Also some other interesting pieces from the same author

Injuries in rugby – how often are players injured, when they are injured, and how seriously?

Possession in rugby – why rugby has been a sport where the team with the ball is LESS likely to win

The physiological demands of rugby – how far do they run, how often do they tackle, how much energy, and what intensity is the game played at?

The_Captain

Didn't Chris Paterson have the highest international kicking percentage in the world at one point?

irishbucsfan

The_Captain wrote: »

Didn't Chris Paterson have the highest international kicking percentage in the world at one point?

Yeah, he had a streak going in international rugby for ages, someone I'm sure will know how high it got... it was very impressive.

Buer

36. He didn't miss a kick in the 2007 RWC or the following 6N.

Steyn broke that though with 41 and Brock James has a longer streak than 41 in the T14 also, I recall.

Podge_irl

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yeah, he had a streak going in international rugby for ages, some sad weirdo I'm sure will know how high it got... it was very impressive.

Buer wrote: »

36. He didn't miss a kick in the 2007 RWC or the following 6N.

Steyn broke that though with 41 and Brock James has a longer streak than 41 in the T14 also, I recall.

True story ibf.

Mind you I think Paterson started only taking kicks he was very sure of getting towards the end of his streak. Think Scotland had another long range kicker at the time.

Buer

Wait......wait....something isn't right here....

Must be my imagination.

Anyway, Dan Parks took the odd kick for Scotland during that period but Paterson took the bulk. I think they generally turned down most longer distance kicks as neither had a long range. Paterson did nail a number of kicks from tight angles during that RWC I recall.

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

...someone I'm sure will know...

Buer wrote: »

36. He didn't miss a kick in the 2007 RWC or the following 6N.

Steyn broke that though with 41 and Brock James has a longer streak than 41 in the T14 also, I recall.

Yes, someone always knows. :P

lbj666

Japan 2019 will be looking for a new venue for the final because their plan for the olympic stadium has be scrapped. Pity, probably going to end up in Yokahama now which was the venue for the Fifa 2002 final which is a bit disapointing. Might not be any games in Toyko which would be a huge shame.

nc6000

lbj666 wrote: »

Japan 2019 will be looking for a new venue for the final because their plan for the olympic stadium has be scrapped. Pity, probably going to end up in Yokahama now which was the venue for the Fifa 2002 final which is a bit disapointing. Might not be any games in Toyko which would be a huge shame.

The Tokyo stadium won't be ready for the 2019 RWC but will be ready for the 2020 Olympics which seems very strange. How hard can it be to bring the schedule forward 6 or 9 months with 4 years notice?

Iompair

They are restarting the bidding/design process from what I've read. The design originally picked was ballooning in price (and it started off as the most expensive stadium in the world!) so the Japanese PM ordered the whole process restarted.

Micky Dolenz

Yeah, 2 billion for a stadium is a bit mental.

thomond2006

This contract saga with Quade Cooper is ridiculous. He signs a two year deal with Toulon only three months ago and now wants to 'cancel' it to sign a four year deal with the ARU.

It looks like Toulon will be getting paid significant compensation (by Cooper himself) and I'd say they're happy to get Cooper off the books.

Squidgy Black

thomond2006 wrote: »

This contract saga with Quade Cooper is ridiculous. He signs a two year deal with Toulon only three months ago and now wants to 'cancel' it to sign a four year deal with the ARU.

It looks like Toulon will be getting paid significant compensation (by Cooper himself) and I'd say they're happy to get Cooper off the books.

Allegedly wants to play 7s for Australia in the olympics.

irishbucsfan

_Tyrrell_ wrote: »

Allegedly wants to play 7s for Australia in the olympics.

Australia haven't qualified for the Olympics, they have a competition coming up in Novemeber and if they don't qualify through that (which is a genuine possibility) they'll be attempting to qualify through the same competition that we are in next year. If Olympic 7s is really the reason he wants to stay and Australia don't qualify it'll end up being a pretty massive waste of money!

nc6000

nc6000 wrote: »

The Tokyo stadium won't be ready for the 2019 RWC but will be ready for the 2020 Olympics which seems very strange. How hard can it be to bring the schedule forward 6 or 9 months with 4 years notice?

Very hard I'd imagine for such a massive project.

The_Captain

Deleted User wrote: »

Also some other interesting pieces from the same author

Injuries in rugby – how often are players injured, when they are injured, and how seriously?

Possession in rugby – why rugby has been a sport where the team with the ball is LESS likely to win

The physiological demands of rugby – how far do they run, how often do they tackle, how much energy, and what intensity is the game played at?

On the possession thing, I always thought it was because a strong attacking team score more quickly with fewer phases, whereas a weaker attacking team will camp on the 22 endlessly recycling, passing back and forth to each other

razorblunt

Todd Clever has been sent home from the USA's Pacific Cup squad due to "multiple conduct violations".

http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/story/_/id/13293826/ex-usa-eagles-captain-todd-clever-released-squad-multiple-conduct-violations

Sangre

Must have been pretty bad to send your captain home.

irishbucsfan

Sangre wrote: »

Must have been pretty bad to send your captain home.

Somewhere a bunch of Americans are arguing about whether he was sent home or whether he left...

.ak

He wasn't the captain anymore tho, was he?

errlloyd

I think he lost the captaincy, had a bitch, missed training and got sent home.

thomond2006

I wonder will Clever go for a walk with his dog.

When we had the tour there two years ago I though he was a bit thuggish and a few other things I've read about him over the years haven't painted a good picture.

Having said that I know the American's on reddit say a lot of good things about him and how he interacts with supporters and promotes the sport state side so who knows. Never a good thing to see someone sent back for conduct reasons, captain or not and he is one of their stand out players coming into the RWC too.

razorblunt

He got dropped for the Samoa game and Wyles got the captaincy. He seemed like one of those guys on the pitch that had a chip on his shoulder that a lower team like the States would need and from reading about his off field antics it seemed like his nastiness stopped at the final whistle.

The line dive over an injured team-mate who was getting treatment was ridiculously stupid though ... as was his tv advert chasing a leprechaun.