Tour de France Stage 5 – July 9th, Ypres - Arenberg **Unmasked Spoilers**

Darkglasses

This will absolutely be the most feared flat stage in the Tour de France for many, many years. And it gets worse - there is about a 60% chance of rain. Regardless, this stage is going to be bananas.

The first 55km are relatively straight-forward, the forecasted winds are not particularly strong (below 30kph) so there should not be any splits at this point.

10 km after entering France, the peloton reaches Roubaix. 30 km later, the riders start on the first of nine pave sections. On the contrary to Paris-Roubaix, the first section today is the notorious Carrefour de l'Arbre. The riders will only do 1.1 km on these cobblestones compared to the 2.1 km in Paris-Roubaix. Still, it will be enough to make a huge selection already. The fight for positions before reaching this point will be furious and the speed extremely fast. All the GC riders will want to be near the front. The weather forecast shows rain, meaning it would be close to a miracle if everybody stayed upright on this difficult section.

The next very difficult pave section is Mons-en-Pévèle. In Paris-Roubaix, this section is 3 km long. Again, today, the riders will only have to suffer for 1 km. For the pure climbers, however, this one kilometer will probably feel like 10. Just a few minutes later, it’s time for the Bersée section. The peloton will most likely already be in pieces at this point. After this, there are only 40 km to go but the riders still have to overcome four difficult pave sections.

The most demanding one is Hornaing, starting with 15.5 km to go. In Paris-Roubaix, this section has the maximum five stars and the riders will have to do all 3.7 km. This is a key moment. The classic specialists without a GC rider to look after will most likely try to put in a strong attack here. However, don’t forget that this is a very short stage, only 155.5 km, meaning the riders will be much fresher than in Paris-Roubaix where they have another 100 km in the legs. Therefore, it will be much harder to drop your rivals.

GCN's excellent preview video show the difficulty of this route better than any words can

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrCT_-6SGNc

It is extremely likely that there will be separate battles for the stage win and the GC tomorrow.

For the stage win, Fabian Cancellara can go into tomorrow considering himself the favourite, but there will be many who will push him close. Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb and Aleksander Kristoff are all favoured by the bookies, but it would be senseless to look past Lars Boom for the stage win. Sep Van Marcke and Greg Van Avermaet are also guaranteed to be there or thereabouts.

In the GC, both Contador and Froome have a range of quality support to get them over the numberous difficult cobble sections. Bernie Eisel and Geraint Thomas will be excellent lieutenants for Froome tomorrow, while Contador has three quality cobbles riders in Michael Morkov, Daniele Bennati, and Matteo Tosatto. I think if either rider has the advantage tomorrow, it must be Contador. Froome's injuries picked up today, perceived lower bike handling skills, and Bjarne Riis's superior tactical nous will all count against the sky team.

Oddschecker: Cancellara 5/2, Sagan 11/2, Degenkolb 13/2, Kristoff 15/2, Vanmarcke 11/1, Van Avermaet 12/1, Boom 28/1


Have fun, and stay safe

daramike

Alexander Kristoff

Tomorrow =carnage. Rain wind and cold weather. I think one of the sprinters that like the cobbles will win it. With that in mind Degenkolb and Kristoff are my picks.

Darkglasses

Michal Kwiatkowski

Poll added

treborm

Jurgen Roelandts

daramike wrote: »

Tomorrow =carnage. Rain wind and cold weather. I think one of the sprinters that like the cobbles will win it. With that in mind Degenkolb and Kristoff are my picks.

Its been so long since we had rain on the cobbles. If it does rain its going to make for one crazy stage, liked Kristoff and was going to stick a bet on him until his odds halved in an hour.

Hard to look past the big favourites to win, but will be great to see how the GC lads get on.

Talib Fiasco

Peter Sagan

This stage is absolute madness...hoping everyone makes it safely especially the GC guys.

MPFG

Alexander Kristoff

Someone proven on the cobbles will win it

Depends if the specialist are looking after a GC guys or not

Sagan & Degenkolb have no charges so will have a free reign...Kristoff also

Not sure if Cancelera will have to shepherd F Schleck , Zubeldia ....possibly not

Greg Van Avermaet , Tepstra ,Van Maerke, Vansummeren (missing from poll BTW), Geraint Thomas may not have a free reign

gordongekko

It's a stage made for Oleg to show the world his cycling abilities.


Chris froome seems to be having problems staying on the bike this year so God help him if it rains. If there is rain I think I'll take a half day and watch the carnage.

Jude13

What time is it kicking off?

neris

gordongekko wrote: »

It's a stage made for Oleg to show the world his cycling abilities.


Chris froome seems to be having problems staying on the bike this year so God help him if it rains. If there is rain I think I'll take a half day and watch the carnage.

the way things are going for Froome lately I could see him crashing out today and his Tour being over

Lumen

Will the GC contender teams not just let the break go without any "danger men" and pootle round safely sportive-stylee?

boydkev

John Degenkolb

Going to go with Sagan for this stage, If it rains his bike handling will come into it.

TheBlaaMan

Its a late start.......

Stage 5 starts at 12:45pm BST

Finish at around 4:18pm BST

Live video from 12:45pm BST

Chips Lovell

John Degenkolb

Lumen wrote: »

Will the GC contender teams not just let the break go without any "danger men" and pootle round safely sportive-stylee?

No. It's the first real opportunity for them to put time into each other. In 2010, by staying with the winning move, Andy Schleck put 53 secs into Wiggo and Vino, 1:13 into Contador and 2:08 into Armstrong.

gordongekko

Forecast seems to be for wind and rain. Hopefully they all make it around safely. But I'm still taking a half day and expecting carnage.

Brian?

Peter Sagan

Lumen wrote: »

Will the GC contender teams not just let the break go without any "danger men" and pootle round safely sportive-stylee?

If you were Contador would you agree to that?

07Lapierre

gordongekko wrote: »

Forecast seems to be for wind and rain. Hopefully they all make it around safely. But I'm still taking a half day and expecting carnage.

Bad for the riders, but should be good viewing for the spectators!

godtabh

neris wrote: »

the way things are going for Froome lately I could see him crashing out today and his Tour being over

I would take that bet.

I've seen reports that while he is ok to ride today it will be a miracle if he gets through today. His wrist is meant to be in a bad way and if he cant hold on to the handle bars properly he will have real problems today.

godtabh

I wonder will Roche be on the Mclaren today?

seany15

Niki Terpstra

Proper excited for today. Have to think cancellara will be hard to beat. Sagan should do well too.

letape

Peter Sagan

Cancellera has shown that he is in very good form and riding agressively and with Frank and Zubeldia in questionable form, I could see him riding for the win today.

Can't wait to watch the action later

ZiabR

John Degenkolb

I think Sagan given his current form should do well today.

ThisRegard

godtabh wrote: »

I wonder will Roche be on the Mclaren today?

He's not looking forward to today at all, I only was half listening to his interview but didn't he say something along the lines that a stage like today isn't one that should be a tour stage.

death1234567

Andre Greipel

MPFG wrote: »

Not sure if Cancelera will have to shepherd F Schleck

I doubt it considering Franck will be doing well to get a top 30 finish.

Should be a cracking stage today. I predict mayhem.

buffalo

Arnaud Demare

death1234567 wrote: »

I doubt it considering Franck will be doing well to get a top 30 finish.

Should be a cracking stage today. I predict ****ing mayhem.

FYP.

ThisRegard

I wonder if Froome will lose much time today, or even if any of the GT contenders will risk trying to bank some time so in the grand scheme of things there won't be much of a shake up.

godtabh

Roche tweeted this this morning

n-dawg

Andre Greipel

I fancy Nibali to do well out of the GC riders today. His attack on stage two will have given him a boast and I think he'll handle the tricky conditions better than Froome and Contador. I wouldn't be too surprised if Froome lost some time today... but probably not more than he can make up in the hills later in the tour.

2smiggy

Alejandro Valverde

at work , but think i will take a half day to watch today's stage. should be a cracker

ThisRegard

godtabh wrote: »

Roche tweeted this this morning

There might be a bit of this so

2smiggy

Alejandro Valverde

godtabh wrote: »

Roche tweeted this this morning

CARNAGE

CramCycle

John Degenkolb

godtabh wrote: »

Roche tweeted this this morning

Long story short, todays stage will be like a really long commute on Irish roads

ThisRegard

2smiggy wrote: »

at work , but think i will take a half day to watch today's stage. should be a cracker

Some obliging chap brought in an Xbox with Sky Player on it to hook it up to the dusty oul tv in the corner so it will be on in the background after lunch.

gordongekko

Do they make any adjustments to the bikes to take account of the cobbles?

ThisRegard

Yeah, they'll have bikes modified to suit this type of stage.

I should have given Nico a lend of my Ridley, it has a designed for Pave sticker on it which would have helped him win today.

n-dawg

Andre Greipel

gordongekko wrote: »

Do they make any adjustments to the bikes to take account of the cobbles?

Slightly wider tires, box section wheels.... maybe double wrap bar tape.

ThisRegard

Here's an article mentioning some of the changes they'll make

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/sports/article/tour-de-france-riders-roll-out-special-bikes-for-cobbles-stage

godtabh

Will they not be using the likes of the Roubaix etc today?

Paddigol

John Degenkolb

What time do you reckon they'll reach the Hornaing pave section? No half day for me, but think I'll nip out to take this section in.

De Bhál

John Degenkolb

Paddigol wrote: »

What time do you reckon they'll reach the Hornaing pave section? No half day for me, but think I'll nip out to take this section in.

looking at some time between 4 to 4:30pm

basing this on the Time Schedule from http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2014/us/days-stage.html

Stroon

I'm pretty new to watching cycling - what I'm imagining after reading all the previews of today is pretty much the big red balls from Total Wipeout.

pelevin

Greg Van Avermaet

Not based on anything in particular or even in general, I've gone for nearly man Vanmarcke in the poll.

dastardly00

Peter Sagan

Laurent Bruwier, a sports journalist from the Belgain broadcasting company RTBF, has tweeted that sectors 5 and 7 won't be used today

Les secteurs 5 et 7 ne seront pas franchis aujourd'hui. #velortbf

No official confirmed reports as of yet.

Darkglasses

Michal Kwiatkowski

Cobbled sectors 5 and 7 are out

dastardly00

Peter Sagan

yeah confirmed now.

From Cyclingnews:

Two sectors of cobblestones have been removed from the route of stage 5 of the Tour de France due to heavy rainfall in northern France. The race jury communicated its decision to the teams association AIGCP on Wednesday morning, before the start of the stage from Ypres to Arenberg. Sector 7, the 1,000-metre stretch of cobbles at Mons-en-Pévèle, and sector 5, the 1,400 metres from Orchies to Beuvry-la-Forêt, have been removed from the course. The race jury deemed that they had been rendered too dangerous by the conditions.
“The race jury called me and they asked me to inform the teams that sectors five and seven would be removed from the route due to weather. If there are other changes then that’s up to the jury. Safety is one of the most important things for us so it’s a good call,” AIGCP managing director Luuc Eisenga told Cyclingnews.

2smiggy

Alejandro Valverde

booooo !!

but safety has to come first , a pity all the same

Darkglasses

Michal Kwiatkowski

I didn't know Liam Neeson was Johan Museeuw

Pudsy33

This is the first day I have seen the LeMonde section, Jesus he is so awkward.

Darkglasses

Michal Kwiatkowski

Pudsy33 wrote: »

This is the first day I have seen the LeMonde section, Jesus he is so awkward.

Theoretically he should be great on tv, he's very affable and loves to talk. Awful in practice

Chips Lovell

John Degenkolb

He needs someone there to give him a steer and he'd be grand. The French guy they've had with him isn't suitable for this one.

lennymc

I think he is awkward in his delivery, but what he has to say is quite interesting.

ThisRegard

Miserable out there.