Malaysian airline MH-17 discussion thread

Spring Onion

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Those black boxes are in Russia's hands. They will never be seen again.

But what would the black box tell us that we don't already know?

danniemcq

superelliptic wrote: »

Why would you think that? It's a civilian passenger jet - aerial dogfighting is not one of its expected activities...

Couple this with the fact there was no mayday or distress signal at any point shows that nobody on board would have any knowledge of it actually happening.

The fact it's designed for armoured military planes means the damage would have been immense and the way the explosive detonates beside the target would be like shooting butter with a shotgun. The rapid decompression coupled with the blast wave and the fragments and debris means it's highly likely that everyone on board would have been killed instantly and personally I hope that's the caee

miss no stars

Spring Onion wrote: »

But what would the black box tell us that we don't already know?

Probably very little, but it might give information about how the plane reacts immediately after a catastrophic event. I guess nobody knows what might be caught by flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder equipment immediatly after a modern jet is likely to have been hit with a missile. Which is why it's important to find out.

ETA: I should clarify that I doubt any of that would be of use in this case, but it's more information to add to the state of knowledge in the area so should another airplane go missing, the effects on it can be compared with this etc.

the_syco

Beal Tuille wrote: »

Didn't think surface to air missiles could reach 33,000 feet.

Looking at the picture here, it seems that although the missiles launched from a device a human can carry is under 15,000 feet, the BUK M2 can shoot up to 49,000 feet.

Beal Tuille wrote: »

Surely the jet has a sensor to know a missile is locked on it which would help identify where it came from once the black box is recovered. Dont think the pilot could do anything once the missile is locked on.

From the same article above;

n response, some airlines—particularly those flying in danger zones or are seen as particularly vulnerable to threats—have started to build in defenses. Israel has required all its commercial jetliners to be equipped with systems to defeat the shoulder-fired missiles, which are usually heat-seeking weapons. Some aircraft carrying heads of state, like Air Force One, are outfitted with such systems.

Defenses also exist against more-sophisticated radar-guided missiles—that can strike at higher distances, but aren't available on commercial aircraft.

So it seems not. The cargo plane that was shot down was done with a "heavy machine gun", so I'm wondering if this had been a military cargo plane, would the missile have hit it?

danniemcq

the_syco wrote: »

Looking at the picture here, it seems that although the missiles launched from a device a human can carry is under 15,000 feet, the BUK M2 can shoot up to 49,000 feet.


From the same article above;

So it seems not. The cargo plane that was shot down was done with a "heavy machine gun", so I'm wondering if this had been a military cargo plane, would the missile have hit it?

More than likely yeah. Like I said above the missile doesn't require a direct hit but explodes beside the target. With the age and design of the plane they rely more on armour than manoeuvres or countermeasures.

Also there are reasons Israel would have fitted defences more than a Netherlands /Malaysian owned plane.

Donkey Oaty

Ukrainian PM press conference live on BBC news now - he's absolutely seething with anger.

Edit: apologies, looks like an earlier recording.

conorhal

miss no stars wrote: »

Probably very little, but it might give information about how the plane reacts immediately after a catastrophic event. I guess nobody knows what might be caught by flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder equipment immediatly after a modern jet is likely to have been hit with a missile. Which is why it's important to find out.

ETA: I should clarify that I doubt any of that would be of use in this case, but it's more information to add to the state of knowledge in the area so should another airplane go missing, the effects on it can be compared with this etc.

The real wealth of information and proof (if it's ever forthcoming) will be from the intelligence community.
That area is one of the most under surveillance places on earth, there is constant satellite tracking of troop and hardware movements by both the Russians and the US. With that level of intensive intelligence gathering I’d be very surprised if both sides don't know exactly what happened, and have to photos to prove it.

dirkmeister

Since when did Sky News add foreboding music to reports?

Absolute tabloid stuff.

who_me

seamus wrote: »

An amateur would have difficulty telling two aircraft apart at 5,000m, never mind 10,000. Would you even hear an aircraft travelling overhead @ 10,000m? I don't think so.

The operator in any case I'm guessing is looking at blips on a radar screen and not guiding the missiles by looking up into the sky. Radar operation is highly technical and requires many many hours of experience to do even competently, never mind do well.

Even a highly experienced ATC operator would need a few hundred hours of training before they could properly operate radar-based SAMs.

So it is highly plausible, nay damn near certain that this was operator error.

You're probably right on the bolded point!

I'm sure it could be operator error. My point is just - how could they go from shooting down a radar contact to "we shot down an An-26"? If it was within visual range (doubtful, maybe possible with binoculars?) they couldn't really be mistaken. If it was blip on the radar, it was flying 8,000ft above the An-26's ceiling (even without looking that up, I'd have guessed most modern airliners fly a good distance above most turbo-props), and almost 300mph faster than the An-26's cruising speed. If they saw wreckage, I'm not sure how they could have mistaken one for the other.

So what could have let them to believe it was an An-26? It's odd that they specifically name an aircraft model that's so different from the aircraft which was (we assume) shot down.

I know radar signatures can be misleading - large objects can have tiny signatures and vice versa; it's as much about shape as size. But shooting down an aircraft because it might have roughly the same-ish size blip as an An-26 on a radar screen? If they know an An-26's radar signature, how the hell do they not know its speed or ceiling??

bear1

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you somehow finding the original video files and checking the metadata to see if it was recorded on a phone rather than a camera? The footage I've seen has generally had poor digital zoom, something common in low-end phones.

There's a flight a few times a week from Amsterdam to, I think, Minnesota, that I hear passing overhead here each time, so yeah they are audible at that height.

Mena wrote: »

I'm on that flight tomorrow. Be sure and wave.

Deleted User wrote: »

Usually passes over me at 4am when I'm out for a smoke, I'll give you a shout.

Overflow wrote: »

eh...it crashed

Are you paying attention to the posts?

Harry Palmr

RT journalist quits over handling of story

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/18/mh17-russia-today-reporter-resigns-sara-firth-kremlin-malaysia

I Heart Internet

The Russain Govt are briefing that the Ukrainian military had BUKs and active radar in the vicinity on Thursday.

I think the it looks far more likely the pro-Russian sepratists made a huge blunder with Russian kit. #kidswithpowertools

If so, it's a mistake. But perhaps no worse than: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

fedor.2.

I'd imagine that the person or persons that actually fired the missile will never be seen or heard from again.

comongethappy

I Heart Internet wrote: »

The Russain Govt are briefing that the Ukrainian military had BUKs and active radar in the vicinity on Thursday.

I think the it looks far more likely the pro-Russian sepratists made a huge blunder with Russian kit.

Or that the rebels captured Ukrainian SAM kit ( as they themselves said) and chaos ensued.

Chardee MacDennis

Kaylene Mann lost her brother Rod Burrows and her sister-in-law Mary when MH370 mysteriously disappeared in March this year.
Her step-daughter Maree Rizk and her husband Albert, from Sunbury near Melbourne, were among the Australians on flight MH17.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down-over-ukraine-near-russian-border-20140718-3c4nl.html#ixzz37pZkv2nv

jesus christ...

bear1

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0718/631526-malaysia-airlines-ukraine/

The part that sickened me the most in this report was the notion that there are people taking parts of the plane as souvenirs.
Disgusting.

Bob24

comongethappy wrote: »

Or that the rebels captured Ukrainian SAM kit ( as they themselves said) and chaos ensued.

If this is what happened (and it quite possibly is), a question will have to be asked is: when you reach a point where heavy weaponry is getting into the hands of soldier wannabes who have no clue how to use it and no real conscience of the potential consequences. When hundred of EU nationals get killed as an initial consequence. Has the situation in Ukraine not escalated to a point where it is a very real security threat for many European countries? And how should European countries react to this?

miss no stars

2 dogs and 9 birds also on board

bear1

miss no stars wrote: »

2 dogs and 9 birds also on board

??

miss no stars

As cargo. Non human passengers.

Apparently a "shipment of pot" also?? Not sure what that's about.

comongethappy

Bob24 wrote: »

If this is what happened (and it quite possibly is), the question deserves to be asked: when you reach a point where heavy weaponry is getting into the hands of soldier wannabes who have no clue how to use it and no real conscience of the potential consequences. When hundred of EU nationals get killed as an initial consequence. Has the situation in Ukraine not escalated to a point where it is a very real security threat for many European countries? And how should European countries react to this?

While direct retalliation would be futile as well as an overstep, what we do know is that these "rebels" include many units of Spetsnaz & Russian secret service personnel either spirited over the border or brought up from Crimea.

There wouldn't be a rebellion where it not puppet master Putin pulling the strings.

President Shirtless is where sanctions should be strengthened.

satguy

It is starting to look likely that it was a Russain rocket that hit that plane.

And most likely a Russain tech guy with his finger on the red button.

Firefox11

Apparently there are pics and video emerging of a SAM vehicle being transported across to the Russian border from that Ukraine region.

Vandango

Harry Palmr wrote: »

RT journalist quits over handling of story

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/18/mh17-russia-today-reporter-resigns-sara-firth-kremlin-malaysia

RT snipe at the Ukrainians and Sky, CNN and Fox ect constantly snipe at the Russians. Looks like Sara has a lot of growing up to do.

Muahahaha

BastardPrince wrote: »

http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down-over-ukraine-near-russian-border-20140718-3c4nl.html#ixzz37pZkv2nv

jesus christ...

Jesus that is tragic.

Though if a family member of mine was lost in an aviation accident I wouldn't ever be booking with that same airline again. Especially not after how Malaysia Airlines treated the relatives of the missing in the flight they never found.

That family have been struck twice by tragedy and twice via Malaysia Airlines. You couldn't make up odds on that occurring it is that bizarre.

I Heart Internet

satguy wrote: »

It is starting to look likely that it was a Russain rocket that hit that plane.

And most likely a Russain tech guy with his finger on the red button.

As bad as all this is, I don't think anyone is suggesting (save a few Ukrainians who want to make it sound even worse than it is) that pro-Russian sepratists or the Russian Government WANTED to down a civilian plane.

It was, I would be 99.9% sure, a mistake/accident. A grave mistake, and one that would not have happened if Putin wasn't acting the eejit in Ukraine, but a mistake nonetheless.

The US made a similar mistake back in the day: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

A mistake shouldn't be the basis for rash judgements or actions.

Rhys Essien

Bob24 wrote: »

If this is what happened (and it quite possibly is), a question will have to be asked is: when you reach a point where heavy weaponry is getting into the hands of soldier wannabes who have no clue how to use it and no real conscience of the potential consequences. When hundred of EU nationals get killed as an initial consequence. Has the situation in Ukraine not escalated to a point where it is a very real security threat for many European countries? And how should European countries react to this?

Any old eejit cannot operate one of these launchers.They were trained up or there was specialist people working with them.

Here is a pic of inside the launcher.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#mediaviewer/File:Inside_of_a_Buk-SAM_(cropped).jpg

America are now trying to pinpoint the exact spot where the missile was launched from.It wouldnt suprise me if their military sattelites could even zoom into the launcher on the ground.

comongethappy

Vandango wrote: »

RT snipe at the Ukrainians and Sky, CNN and Fox ect constantly snipe at the Russians. Looks like Sara has a lot of growing up to do.

Maybe she just did?

gandalf

Rhys Essien wrote: »

America are now trying to pinpoint the exact spot where the missile was launched from.It wouldnt suprise me if their military sattelites could even zoom into the launcher on the ground.

I would be very surprised if that whole area was not under 24x7 surveillance.

ScumLord

gandalf wrote: »

I would be very surprised if that whole area was not under 24x7 surveillance.

Don't the Americans have missile defence structures in place around the area? It seems like the kind of thing the Americans would know about as it's happening. They may not know the specifics of who, but they'd know the where and the when.