Off Topic: Gamblers Ramblings

BumperD

I've a dirty head on me

droidman123

BumperD wrote: »

I've a dirty head on me

More beer= no more hangover

BumperD

Must go for breakfast. Somewhere. Fast.

Then a strawberry milkshake or a geletto ice-cream

BumperD

That is my cure:pac:

droidman123

I didn't think channel 4 coverage could get any worse!! They are showing how to apply make up and how to choose dress,s and hats!! I give up!

BumperD

Makeup wouldn't solve the head on me this morning.

BumperD

My head is ruined today. I'd find it easier to pick a winner from a carosel at the fairground. Stuck an ew on Adam Scott in the US open just there & going to park myself on front of the tv for the afternoon

PM me nudes

BumperD, is your head sore?

droidman123

Where's clareman today? I need some wisdom from the west!

Clareman

droidman123 wrote: »

Where's clareman today? I need some wisdom from the west!

I'm dying, on a stag in Galway, I've about 6 pints on board and still not cured

droidman123

Clareman wrote: »

I'm dying, on a stag in Galway, I've about 6 pints on board and still not cured

Aww...another six and you will be grand

BumperD

Just had two scoops of gelato ice cream, one dark chocolate, one vanilla. I'm cured now.

zimmermania

Is it after timing if one reports a loss and a near miss?
I did ok today,made a few quid but if Postponed held on for second against Eagle top (beaten a nose when Eagle Top got up on the line) my 64 lines @50 cent a line would have got me the pot for 50 cent,as the placepot paid 4,385 I would have picked up at least €2,192.50 and probably more as Postponed was almost double the price of Eagle Top who was 2nd favI do placepots only at the biggest meetings and usually invest between 32 and 132 euro on perms.This week at Ascot I had 5 up each day
I am not moaning as I am well aware these things are liable to happen when the racing is competitive and I have picked up some big wins on placepots over the years and punters should consider placepots at the biggest meetings.
I won on the week at Ascot and I am heading out now for a few pints.
I was told Wachman will win the 2nd at Gowran tomorrow,when I checked the race I discovered he has two in the race,my guess is Black Wolf Run is the fancied one but I will check it out later as the other runner is owned by JP.

BumperD

Sticking 132 on perms is a sure fire path to the poor house. You are better off picking one or two horses and sticking the 132 on the nose of one you really fancy. That way, you might actually stand a chance of making money. With perms, your chance of making money is somewhere between slim to anorexic

zimmermania

Not really the road to the poor house,almost all of my serious bets are singles and trying to win a decent amount for a fairly modest stake (32) makes a lot of sense to me.
Myself and a few others sometimes invest a few hundred between us trying to win a big pot and we may not have any bet at all excepy the placepot on occasion.
We all have different ways of punting.Today for example I had 3 bets and the placepot.First bet was 2nd but money back as a free bet 2nd bet placed at 12/1 and my 3rd bet was a winner.The placepot gives me an interest throughout the day and while my methods might not be everyones cup of tea they make sense to me and I have been punting for quite a while.We are all trying to achieve the same result but maybe travelling a different route.

droidman123

I have been following richard fahy for the last 7 years or so and i can honestly say it has been profitable for me. I dont back his horses blindly but i have done really well. Pity the bookies have copped on though to him. I remember back in the day getting 33 or 40/1 for his first time out 2yr olds.. Not a chance of getting that now. I remember about 5 years ago an evening meeting at doncaster on a saturday, he had i think 3or4 winners, one of them was 40/1.i cleaned up. Also cosmic something or other at ascot a few years back @66/1.freddy tylicki rode a great race too to win the john smiths @ 14/1 for for fahy, name escapes me again.

BumperD

Yes zimmer we are on the same mission in terms of trying to turn a few quid from our bets but definitely not the same route, place pots and multiples are not profitable. I know, I used to do them for exactly the same reasons you outlined ie have an interest for the day etc but they are a bad bet. I want you to win! I have no doubt if you right down how much you spend on them you'd quickly see that they represent poor value. Stick with the singles/ each ways!

Anyway, enjoy the few pints.

BumperD

Flying Clarets with Fred tylicki?

droidman123

BumperD wrote: »

Flying Clarets with Fred tylicki?

That could of been the one bumper,all I remember is I was the only one in the bookies screaming "come on Freddy" most of the punters were looking at me in bewilderment! Tylicki wasnt really known at the time.i can't remember who hanagan was on but the fact that it was a big York handicap I'm sure fahy had probably 3 or 4 runners.

zimmermania

BumperD wrote: »

Yes zimmer we are on the same mission in terms of trying to turn a few quid from our bets but definitely not the same route, place pots and multiples are not profitable. I know, I used to do them for exactly the same reasons you outlined ie have an interest for the day etc but they are a bad bet. I want you to win! I have no doubt if you right down how much you spend on them you'd quickly see that they represent poor value. Stick with the singles/ each ways!

Anyway, enjoy the few pints.

This is not something that we can debate here because claims cannot be proved so it is best to leave it,i hope you continue to do well.

zimmermania

BumperD wrote: »

Yes zimmer we are on the same mission in terms of trying to turn a few quid from our bets but definitely not the same route, place pots and multiples are not profitable. I know, I used to do them for exactly the same reasons you outlined ie have an interest for the day etc but they are a bad bet. I want you to win! I have no doubt if you right down how much you spend on them you'd quickly see that they represent poor value. Stick with the singles/ each ways!

Anyway, enjoy the few pints.

With all due respect I only mentioned placepots.In your reply you mentioned "placepots and multiples" which suggests that you addressed a question that was not asked and you cannot in all fairness answer a question that was not asked.If you wish to deal with the question of perms for placepots,I will be more than happy to engage.

Hulk Hands

BumperD wrote: »

Sticking 132 on perms is a sure fire path to the poor house. You are better off picking one or two horses and sticking the 132 on the nose of one you really fancy. That way, you might actually stand a chance of making money. With perms, your chance of making money is somewhere between slim to anorexic

Lol. Sticking in perms with educated selections is one of the most +EV bets you can get. Some punters think that singles are better than multiples. For the simple punter, i'd certainly advise them to stick to singles, as with a single they are only exposed to one overround or bookies margin. When they bet in multiples, they lose margin multiples times...e.g United (lose 2%) x Arsenal( lose 2%) x Man City (lose 2%).

However, any decent punter surely should only be backing when there's margin in their favour. The margin they make on one selection, would multiply itself onto the next selection in a multiple. I worked out Free Eagle for example when he was 4/1 in the bad e/w race as a +10% margin bet. There was ample bad e/w, extra place races etc all week long where you'd have to be a simpleton not to find yourself a few +EV selections at best morning price. Backing one of those e/w is all well and good, but for a massive advantage over the bookmaker sticking a load of them into a big e/w perm is a great bet. The image below (click on it) is an example of a small one I did during the week, hit the crossbar a bit with it. One warning tho is they get your accounts closed almost immediately if discovered

[IMG][/img]

BumperD

zimmermania wrote: »

This is not something that we can debate here because claims cannot be proved so it is best to leave it,i hope you continue to do well.

Ok.

zimmermania wrote: »

With all due respect I only mentioned placepots.In your reply you mentioned "placepots and multiples" which suggests that you addressed a question that was not asked and you cannot in all fairness answer a question that was not asked.If you wish to deal with the question of perms for placepots,I will be more than happy to engage.

So your not leaving it. Good.

Now, multiples, forget them. I mentioned and your dead right, not relevant. Placepots. Do explain how these pay off. I'm all ears and the floor is yours! I generally stick to singles or ew (the odd ew double/straight double/ but I'd guess 9 out of 10 of my bets are singles.). If place pots make money I want in on it!

BumperD

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Lol. Sticking in perms with educated selections is one of the most +EV bets you can get. Some punters think that singles are better than multiples. For the simple punter, i'd certainly advise them to stick to singles, as with a single they are only exposed to one overround or bookies margin. When they bet in multiples, they lose margin multiples times...e.g United (lose 2%) x Arsenal( lose 2%) x Man City (lose 2%).

However, any decent punter surely should only be backing when there's margin in their favour. The margin they make on one selection, would multiply itself onto the next selection in a multiple. I worked out Free Eagle for example when he was 4/1 in the bad e/w race as a +10% margin bet. There was ample bad e/w, extra place races etc all week long where you'd have to be a simpleton not to find yourself a few +EV selections at best morning price. Backing one of those e/w is all well and good, but for a massive advantage over the bookmaker sticking a load of them into a big e/w perm is a great bet. The image below (click on it) is an example of a small one I did during the week, hit the crossbar a bit with it. One warning tho is they get your accounts closed almost immediately if discovered

[IMG][/img]

Welcome back Hulk Hands, where have you been!

BumperD

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Lol. Sticking in perms with educated selections is one of the most +EV bets you can get. Some punters think that singles are better than multiples. For the simple punter, i'd certainly advise them to stick to singles, as with a single they are only exposed to one overround or bookies margin. When they bet in multiples, they lose margin multiples times...e.g United (lose 2%) x Arsenal( lose 2%) x Man City (lose 2%).

However, any decent punter surely should only be backing when there's margin in their favour. The margin they make on one selection, would multiply itself onto the next selection in a multiple. I worked out Free Eagle for example when he was 4/1 in the bad e/w race as a +10% margin bet. There was ample bad e/w, extra place races etc all week long where you'd have to be a simpleton not to find yourself a few +EV selections at best morning price. Backing one of those e/w is all well and good, but for a massive advantage over the bookmaker sticking a load of them into a big e/w perm is a great bet. The image below (click on it) is an example of a small one I did during the week, hit the crossbar a bit with it. One warning tho is they get your accounts closed almost immediately if discovered

[IMG][/img]

Just after reading this again. The arrogance.

Yes, I am a simpleton.

How are the retirement plans going?

Oh, I better stick in an Lol as well for good measure.

So here goes.

"Lol".

Hulk Hands

I simply meant that if you focused on the bad e/w and extra place races, it's harder to find a bad selection than a good one. It wasn't directed at you. As for the 'any decent punter' bit, well isn't that true? Why on earth would somebody bet unless they expected to make some money in the long term? I'd expect any of the regulars in here to be far more advanced than 'the simple punter' at this stage, hence the mention.

Hilarious response after arrogantly telling Zimmerman that he's basically a fool for backing multiples and perms. Throw the toys out then when corrected. No plans for retirement yet anyway, i've loadsa time onside

zimmermania

BumperD wrote: »

Ok.



So your not leaving it. Good.

Now, multiples, forget them. I mentioned and your dead right, not relevant. Placepots. Do explain how these pay off. I'm all ears and the floor is yours! I generally stick to singles or ew (the odd ew double/straight double/ but I'd guess 9 out of 10 of my bets are singles.). If place pots make money I want in on it!

Placepots like any other bet on horses will only pay off if one is successful in getting a reasonable strike rate.
Single bets are best for most punters and the bookmakers built-in advantage (the over-round) can be beaten on occasions when the odds are in ones favour (as the punter sees it).

However pool betting is totally different and one is betting totally against other punters,many of whom are attracted to placepot betting by the chance to win a large amount for a small outlay.
At the big meetings pools become very large and the average punter staking a fiver or a tenner has little chance of selecting 6 horses to be placed due to the competitive,large field handicaps.

The market cannot be manipulated in the same way as the sp market can and because the "hype"horses are always overbet,a huge number of bets go down when one is unplaced.The last race yesterday offers a good example,the irish-trained fav was a ridiculous price running against horses with listed and group form (I backed the winner ew at 8s and had it in my placepot).

Pool betting means that a huge majority betting on Grand National or Derby day,Galway,Cheltenham and a few other meetings will not be well informed and those who pool resources and do large perm entries can make money.

Predicting the outcome of any race is not easy and formig opinions on the ability of one horse to jump better or run faster than another is a subjective business.All gambling involves a real element of chance as well as informed opinion but we do it because we get something (as well as the money) from it.We all gamble in different ways and some are more risk averse than others.
My latest bet for example is that four of us are buying a foal and putting it up for sale as a yearling and if it fails to sell we will put it in training on behalf of a 20 strong syndicate.The four of us are putting in 5,000 each initially and we hope to make a profit at the yearling stage,though I guess the odds against that are fairly long lol,but to us it is like having a bet.

Clareman

Second day hangover hell here and I've a long drive tomorrow so I can't go for the cure today, it's going to be a long day.

BumperD

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I simply meant that if you focused on the bad e/w and extra place races, it's harder to find a bad selection than a good one. It wasn't directed at you. As for the 'any decent punter' bit, well isn't that true? Why on earth would somebody bet unless they expected to make some money in the long term? I'd expect any of the regulars in here to be far more advanced than 'the simple punter' at this stage, hence the mention.

Hilarious response after arrogantly telling Zimmerman that he's basically a fool for backing multiples and perms. Throw the toys out then when corrected. No plans for retirement yet anyway, i've loadsa time onside

If you read back, you'll note your the only person who mentioned " fool". Take your time. You've loads of it by your own admission.

What I was challenging, specifically, was lobbing 132 on perms in placepots. it seemed, to me, a road to ruin. However, you'll see from his post above that he's explained why they can represent value at big meetings etc. He explained it very well, without having to resort to chucking in "simpleton", "decent punter" "fool" etc into the response.

Woops, nearly forgot. "Lol".

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Is it after timing if one reports a loss and a near miss?
I did ok today,made a few quid but if Postponed held on for second against Eagle top (beaten a nose when Eagle Top got up on the line) my 64 lines @50 cent a line would have got me the pot for 50 cent,as the placepot paid 4,385 I would have picked up at least €2,192.50 and probably more as Postponed was almost double the price of Eagle Top who was 2nd favI do placepots only at the biggest meetings and usually invest between 32 and 132 euro on perms.This week at Ascot I had 5 up each day
I am not moaning as I am well aware these things are liable to happen when the racing is competitive and I have picked up some big wins on placepots over the years and punters should consider placepots at the biggest meetings.
I won on the week at Ascot and I am heading out now for a few pints.
I was told Wachman will win the 2nd at Gowran tomorrow,when I checked the race I discovered he has two in the race,my guess is Black Wolf Run is the fancied one but I will check it out later as the other runner is owned by JP.

I was told both were expected to run ok and that puzzled me because yesterday I was told the stable would win the race.
Looking at the betting led me to think JPs was the one and in that case we would not be told for reasons I can not go into,i had a small bet on the winner and can say with certainty Black Wolf Run will win very soon and should go in the notebooks.

Hulk Hands

BumperD wrote: »

Sticking 132 on perms is a sure fire path to the poor house. You are better off picking one or two horses and sticking the 132 on the nose of one you really fancy. That way, you might actually stand a chance of making money. With perms, your chance of making money is somewhere between slim to anorexic

Fairly adamant about it here anyway

BumperD wrote: »

Yes zimmer we are on the same mission in terms of trying to turn a few quid from our bets but definitely not the same route, place pots and multiples are not profitable. I know, I used to do them for exactly the same reasons you outlined ie have an interest for the day etc but they are a bad bet. I want you to win! I have no doubt if you right down how much you spend on them you'd quickly see that they represent poor value. Stick with the singles/ each ways!

And again

BumperD wrote: »

What I was challenging, specifically, was lobbing 132 on perms in placepots. it seemed, to me, a road to ruin. However, you'll see from his post above that he's explained why they can represent value at big meetings etc.

Good on you to admit being wrong anyway, managing to change your very strong opinion in super quick time. Maybe give the George a try tonight, you never know what might happen at this rate

BumperD

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Fairly adamant about it here anyway



And again



Good on you to admit being wrong anyway, managing to change your very strong opinion in super quick time. Maybe give the George a try tonight, you never know what might happen at this rate

What's the George? Is it a place for people with oversized hands? Or perhaps a frequent haunt for failed Maths graduates, struggling their way through life?

Here goes again...wait for it.....

Lol.

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

My head is ruined today. I'd find it easier to pick a winner from a carosel at the fairground. Stuck an ew on Adam Scott in the US open just there & going to park myself on front of the tv for the afternoon

Adam Scott available at 80/1 yesterday am 4 places. He was 200/1 end of day yesterday but I think that was 3 places. Very happy with that. Great finish to a major with 7 in it with 1 hole to play.

Shemale

Placepots are one thing that I really don't understand people betting on, why wouldn't you do place accumulators on races where you feel you have nice priced horses with good shouts and take your pick of the 6 most likely on the day.

Slattsy

Would someone please post last Saturdays Royal Ascots results and places for me?

On second last day of cruise. Brilliant experience. Currentlyin Salerno.

droidman123

here ya go

https://www.ascot.co.uk/racing-results



enjoy the cruise

Shemale

Slattsy wrote: »

On second last day of cruise. Brilliant experience. Currentlyin Salerno.

We heard you were into cruising, the Popes Cross.

Enjoy the rest of it

zimmermania

Shemale wrote: »

Placepots are one thing that I really don't understand people betting on, why wouldn't you do place accumulators on races where you feel you have nice priced horses with good shouts and take your pick of the 6 most likely on the day.

It is not just about nice priced horses and there are occasions that backing horses in placed accums would in fact pay more.
The key as far as I am concerned is to get favs out of the money and get my picks placed in the big handicaps,particularly at well hyped meetings.

tinodz

Something for me to day...

Sixties Queen 18/1 EW (5.05)
Air of Mystery 6/1 (7.55)

Silly small 108/1 Win Double

Sixties Queen is a notebook pick that I always think has a great chance, but it always comes up short. I am hoping for something today. Getting a place is not out of question.

Air of Mystery ran at the Fred Darling Stakes, but basically fell out of the stalls. It ran very tidy, but finished well back, but was also never pushed. Was beaten by a bunch with proven quality, but if it broke well i think it could have been much closer. A tidy break, and a tidy run means it will come close today IMO.

tinodz

I think I posted this in the wrong thread. Help mod!!

BumperD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVsXS4wnNQ8

Not so bad

droidman123

BumperD wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVsXS4wnNQ8

Not so bad

A million miles from my kind of "music"

Clareman

droidman123 wrote: »

A million miles from my kind of "music"

There's music? I watched it quite happily on mute

droidman123

Clareman wrote: »

There's music? I watched it quite happily on mute

I use the term "music" very lightly

BumperD

droidman123 wrote: »

A million miles from my kind of "music"

It was the eye candy that drew me and 9 million other viewers! Holy crap, some beauties on the catwalk. Not sure how I didn't see that before.

droidman123

BumperD wrote: »

It was the eye candy that drew me and 9 million other viewers! Holy crap, some beauties on the catwalk. Not sure how I didn't see that before.

there was eye candy?...*scrambles to watch the video again:p

droidman123

backed 7 horses today...not a sausage:mad:

BumperD

I had one too many sauces last night. After a week of work your naturally tired so the beers hit you hard. Today has been a lazy couch day.

Now need to decide what to have dinner later. I'm thinking curry

Clareman

I was out for dinner with the parents tonight, have to do a family thing tomorrow from 4 as well, haven't had a bet all weekend, anyone with any decent leads please pass them on, nicely done with the 1 today BumperD by the way

BumperD

Cheers Clareman. Im on a decent run this last month. Any day that you get more back is a good day. Had a rotten spell of seconditis , preceded by a barren spell where anyone laying my selections would have been sitting in a mansion by now:pac: