**CAO Points Discussion 2014 - predictions and aftermath**

rainbowtrout

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

There are several ways of mitigating that: activating at, say, 4am; allowing students to request that their results be e-mailed to them; etc.

It doesn't matter what hour of the morning it was activated. If it was 4am, students would have been on since 3:30 furiously hitting refresh and the same thing would happen.

peekachoo

I need biomed to drop by fiiiive pointsssss

randylonghorn

rainbowtrout wrote: »

It doesn't matter what hour of the morning it was activated. If it was 4am, students would have been on since 3:30 furiously hitting refresh and the same thing would happen.

This. People stay up all night and flood CAO at 6, even though lots will have got hints from the early papers.

Plus as I say, while I think it may be one reason, I don't think it's the only one.

Hollister11

Would use say I'm safe being 45 points over last years points.

The last 3 years in the course

200
230
200

randylonghorn

No-one can give you a guarantee, but I certainly wouldn't be panicking; the odds are certainly well-stacked in your favour.

Conor9320

Is it likely that DC117 (Aviation Management with Pilot Studies) will shoot up? It's hard to tell because it's such a new course. I got 470 which is 30 more then last year, should I be safe enough with that? I'm on the HEAR scheme too so I'm hoping I'll be ok.

LostBoy101

Conor9320 wrote: »

Is it likely that DC117 (Aviation Management with Pilot Studies) will shoot up? It's hard to tell because it's such a new course. I got 470 which is 30 more then last year, should I be safe enough with that? I'm on the HEAR scheme too so I'm hoping I'll be ok.

You should be safe in my opinion and HEAR have you backed up for the extra points if it does increase.

HauntedGhost

Do you think its possible for HEAR to give me 45 points? I'm 45 points short of my first offer

randylonghorn

Like the normal questions re: "Do you think X will go up or down / what points will Y be?", no-one can really answer that with any certainty HG.

It does sound like a fairly big ask though.

In the eventuality that you don't get your first choice, how happy are you with your second choice?

EoghanIRL

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Final points for UCC last year was 570 with random selection. It should be enough.

Is Dental Science just another name for Dentistry in Trinity? Was 575 on random selection last year.

Yes dental science is the same course I believe . It's my first choice anyway so I'm hoping i am safe .

rainbowtrout

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Yes dental science is the same course I believe . It's my first choice anyway so I'm hoping i am safe .

I would agree. The high points courses - dentistry, medicine, pharmacy etc tend not to waiver much year to year. You'd have to be very unlucky for dentistry in cork to go up by 10 points and miss it on random - worst case scenario. If it went up by that much it would indicate that TCD would also go up, given that the higher points for trinity are consistently a few higher than cork.

EoghanIRL

rainbowtrout wrote: »

I would agree. The high points courses - dentistry, medicine, pharmacy etc tend not to waiver much year to year. You'd have to be very unlucky for dentistry in cork to go up by 10 points and miss it on random - worst case scenario. If it went up by that much it would indicate that TCD would also go up, given that the higher points for trinity are consistently a few higher than cork.

Well here is my logic .
Dentistry ucc in 2012 was 575. The course wasn't full however.

2013 ucc it was 570. Course wasn't full .

So I'm thinking since it wasn't full last year I think it should stay the same hopefully.

amen

Ompala wrote: »

Whoops totally forgot to ever reply to this :pac:
I never understood it cos it was literally never explained to us
We were more or less told to try and get as many points as you possibly could and then just pray twas enough, trying to see patterns or predicting never really came into the equation

Can I ask where you got those figures from? You've sparked my curiosity

Dunno really what the story is with UL and points these days, Maths and Physics did some crazy jumping in the last few years

2011 390
2012 535
2013 480

sorry for being way off post but you are training to be scientist so you should have a high degree of intellectual curiosity. Why did you not ask someone, read the literature or even go and research how the points system works?

Dickie10

hey any one that's feeling down don't worry to much! life is a strange and winding road. I got the magnificent total of 220 points in my leaving..... not today but august 2001! anyway I wasn't in a great place that time, I had absolutely no direction or drive in life and was kind of afraid to even try hard at school. I really just floated along for 5 years, well I really fell apart academically in 5th year and 6th year. I genuinely belived I was stupid but for some reason had a serious penchant for useless information, as I thought it was!
I could ace table quizzes and stuff like university challenge on TV, yet I go would do very average in exams. I got an E in ordinary level Maths and a D2 in ordinary Biology. I wasn't much helped by having to choose between my two favourite subjects Geography and History. I also liked Ag Science but my school didn't have it. I was in higher English having got a C in higher junior cert, but got put down to ordinary level because the teacher wanted to cut the numbers in the class... .and I talked to much. Thing was I just let it happen....! My parents I suppose could have and should have shook me up. but with none of my siblings ever having gone to university or an IT, so I was let drift.

Any way I went to an AG college in Autumn 2001 and did the level 6 cert in agriculture(green cert). I then embarked on a plastering apprentichship which I had no real interest in, I worked away until spring 2008 and then worked dried up. All the while I was doing quizzes and stuff like that people actually used to ring me up to get me on their team like strangers and stuff.
Then I had my road to Damascus in autumn 2010. my brother said why don't you go to college and do something you are interested in, I was like what? sure I got a brutal LC...?? how could I ever get into a college course? I looked up the net anyway and seen that UCD did an access course, cut a long story short I signed up to English aand History access course . I loved it even though it was hard enough. I applied for NUI maynooth the following summer and now am entering 3rd year with a first class honors in history and geography within my sights if I keep up the standard im at.

Nui Maynooth wrote to me last week to tell me that my results are in the to 3 % in geography and they would like me to pursue a post grad which i may get a scholarship in.Anyway i love the university style education i just seem to thrive on it. i was a dreamer in school who always wanted to know what such and such is where it is and why is something or somewhere the way they are. these questions were a big no-no in secondary school but in university this is exactly what they want from you. i mentioned stuff like that in my interview of why i wanted to go to NUIM and they practically gave me my place their and then. I hope this helps someone somewhere out their.

I suppose the main take away point may be that some people just are not in the right place or frame of mind for secondary education at aparticular time, but if you have a passion for something or some subject that will carry you a long way.University education really suits some people who could never have achieved in secondary school:):)

randylonghorn

Congrats Dickie, always great to hear positive stories like that.

Dickie10 wrote: »

i was a dreamer in school who always wanted to know what such and such is where it is and why is something or somewhere the way they are. these questions were a big no-no in secondary school but in university this is exactly what they want from you.

This bit is worth emphasising, I think. University is far more about the "how" and the "why?" and thinking critically and analytically, rather than just facts to be remembered (though there will always be some of that of course, and more so in some courses than others).

It's a fairly drastic sea-change, and one which those getting their results to-day and heading off to third level need to be aware of.

Raspberry Fileds

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Well here is my logic .
Dentistry ucc in 2012 was 575. The course wasn't full however.

2013 ucc it was 570. Course wasn't full .

So I'm thinking since it wasn't full last year I think it should stay the same hopefully.

Contrary to what another poster said, Pharm/Dentistry, etc, are entirely capable of large jumps: Dental Science jumped 20 in 2012; in the same year, Pharm jumped 20 in the three universities that offer it. Generally speaking, the larger a course, the less likely its minimum is to fluctuate dramatically; Dentistry/Dental Science is quite small. However, the demand for Dentistry dropped significantly last year, and there was a slight drop this year, so such an increase truly would be remarkable.

What do you mean when you say the course wasn't full? I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.

Ompala

amen wrote: »

sorry for being way off post but you are training to be scientist so you should have a high degree of intellectual curiosity. Why did you not ask someone, read the literature or even go and research how the points system works?

Because I was always had so many points to spare over what I needed I never had to worry about, so I never bothered with checking how the system worked

And now ye can slate me for being so cocky :P

rainbowtrout

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

Contrary to what another poster said, Pharm/Dentistry, etc, are entirely capable of large jumps: Dental Science jumped 20 in 2012; in the same year, Pharm jumped 20 in the three universities that offer it.

Of course they are capable of huge jumps but when you get to the upper end of the points scale where dentistry is right now, the jumps will be smaller because the pool of people achieving these high points scores is smaller.

And not all of this small pool will apply for dentistry. Clearly the fact that there are other similar high points courses: medicine, pharmacy, veterinary, physiotherapy being the obvious ones suggests that a cohort of this group opt for these courses. And then there are those who score at this level who exceed the points requirement for their course by a mile; arts, general science, business etc and were never in competition for the 560+ courses.

Case in point being the lad that got the 9A1s today. He's applied for business and law in UCD I think.


Also given that 2012 saw the introduction of bonus points, something that most students apply to these courses are likely to avail of due to the fact that doing 6 higher level subjects is necessary to guarantee a high score, it was in surprising the points jumped by 20. It was the maths bonus points effect.

EoghanIRL

Raspberry Fileds wrote: »

Contrary to what another poster said, Pharm/Dentistry, etc, are entirely capable of large jumps: Dental Science jumped 20 in 2012; in the same year, Pharm jumped 20 in the three universities that offer it. Generally speaking, the larger a course, the less likely its minimum is to fluctuate dramatically; Dentistry/Dental Science is quite small. However, the demand for Dentistry dropped significantly last year, and there was a slight drop this year, so such an increase truly would be remarkable.

What do you mean when you say the course wasn't full? I can't think of any reason why it wouldn't be.

Yes I typed that in a rush .
What I mean is that all canidates with the minimum points got in , in both years .

In the other two colleges all canidates with minimum points didn't get in .

Mr. G

Badwulf wrote: »

Anyone know if "computing in software development" in GMIT will go up?

Since it's a 3 year course I'd say it won't change, if it changes it will only be 10 points or so due to the increase in the number of people taking HL Maths this year. Of course I'm only guessing, you just don't know.

rainbowtrout

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Yes I typed that in a rush .
What I mean is that all canidates with the minimum points got in , in both years .

In the other two colleges all canidates with minimum points didn't get in .

There's no minimum points for any course. Only minimum requirements

randylonghorn

Can we try to avoid big arguments over how much some individual course is going to change when actually none of us know, kplzthnks!

rainbowtrout wrote: »

There's no minimum points for any course. Only minimum requirements

True in one sense, but if you equate the minimum requirements to points, practically there is.

E.g. if a Uni says they require 6 subjects including 2 honours for all courses, that actually equates to a points value.

Similarly if the min requirements for a specific course are set higher than matric, that will equate to a points value as well.

rainbowtrout

Mr. G wrote: »

Since it's a 3 year course I'd say it won't change, if it changes it will only be 10 points or so due to the increase in the number of people taking HL Maths this year. Of course I'm only guessing, you just don't know.

If it's a 3 year course then it's a level 7. Even with a potential initial rise, level 6&7 courses have a tendency to fall in round 2 as people accept level 8 courses and reject the courses they had as back up on the level 6/7 list.

Not true in all cases but more common where a college offers direct entry via CAO to level 8 rather than just having it as an add on after level 7 is conpleted

randylonghorn wrote: »

Can we try to avoid big arguments over how much some individual course is going to change when actually none of us know, kplzthnks!

True in one sense, but if you equate the minimum requirements to points, practically there is.

E.g. if a Uni says they require 6 subjects including 2 honours for all courses, that actually equates to a points value.

Similarly if the min requirements for a specific course are set higher than matric, that will equate to a points value as well.

True but it would be wrong to say that 560/570/580 is the minimum requirement for dentistry/ pharmacy etc

2 c3s and 4 d3s is 150 points which is a very low minimum requirement

WildConn

I got 355 points and my first choice is Corporate law in NUIG which was 355 last year, Will I be safe?

EoghanIRL

rainbowtrout wrote: »

There's no minimum points for any course. Only minimum requirements

Not what I mean . If say 570 was Minimum points then every candidate with dentistry as first choice got it .

Everyone in tcd with minimum points didn't get in.

Making sense ?

randylonghorn

rainbowtrout wrote: »

True but it would be wrong to say that 560/570/580 is the minimum requirement for dentistry/ pharmacy etc

Oh lord yeah.

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Not what I mean . If say 570 was Minimum points then every candidate with dentistry as first choice got it .

Everyone in tcd with minimum points didn't get in.

Making sense ?

Not really.

Firstly, are you referring to cut-off points rather than minimum points?

Secondly, how do you know that everyone with it down as first choice got in?

Do you want to come back to this tomorrow when less tired?

(serious suggestion, don't mean to sound sarky! )

rainbowtrout

EoghanIRL wrote: »

Not what I mean . If say 570 was Minimum points then every candidate with dentistry as first choice got it .

Everyone in tcd with minimum points didn't get in.

Making sense ?

Nope. If there are 50 places in trinity and 50 places in cork and to keep it simple nobody that applied for one college applied for the other and everyone that applied for either course met the science, Irish English and maths requirements then the top 50 on each list were offered a place. The 50th person on each list had the lowest points entering the course and that is what is meant by minimum requirement.

Realistically what happens is if you apply for both you are put on both lists. Let's assume everyone meets all the basic entry requirements. Again they pick the top 50 off each list. If a person appears on both lists they will be offered the one they had places higher in their list of preferences, scratched off the other list and that place goes to no 51 and so on.

randylonghorn

WildConn wrote: »

I got 355 points and my first choice is Corporate law in NUIG which was 355 last year, Will I be safe?

Not being smart, Conn, but no-one can answer that.

You're at least likely to be in the right ballpark, that's the best anyone can say to you until Monday.

rainbowtrout wrote: »

The 50th person on each list had the lowest points entering the course and that is what is meant by minimum requirement.

Cut-off point, surely? ... now you're confusing me!!!

rainbowtrout

randylonghorn wrote: »

Not being smart, Conn, but no-one can answer that.

You're at least likely to be in the right ballpark, that's the best anyone can say to you until Monday.

Cut-off point, surely? ... now you're confusing me!!!

:p:p it's late, ya cut-off point.

EoghanIRL

randylonghorn wrote: »

Oh lord yeah.

Not really.

Firstly, are you referring to cut-off points rather than minimum points?

Secondly, how do you know that everyone with it down as first choice got in?

Do you want to come back to this tomorrow when less tired?

(serious suggestion, don't mean to sound sarky! )

Yeah tired .... Will try tomorrow .

simsha

If I have an exemption from NUI for irish and it's a requirement for arts will I not be considered for the course because of it? I am also 5 points off, what are my chances of an offer? I have the same points as the cao cut off point of last year.

Aragneer

From what I know if you have an exemption then it is not a requirement for you, however, I have been told then you need another language on your results? That was how it was for me as I was looking to go to NUIG but changed my cao to UL because of the language exemption thing.

Also, if you're 5 points off but the entry rate isn't that high this year, you should be alright for second round offers but it also depends if the points go up or down too. Good luck with it.

I don't know if I'm completely right with all of this but I'm sure there are others as well that can help

simsha

Aragneer wrote: »

From what I know if you have an exemption then it is not a requirement for you, however, I have been told then you need another language on your results? That was how it was for me as I was looking to go to NUIG but changed my cao to UL because of the language exemption thing.

Also, if you're 5 points off but the entry rate isn't that high this year, you should be alright for second round offers but it also depends if the points go up or down too. Good luck with it.

I don't know if I'm completely right with all of this but I'm sure there are others as well that can help

Yes I have another language. It's a very popular course isn't it? I don't know what will happen

rainbowtrout

simsha wrote: »

Yes I have another language. It's a very popular course isn't it? I don't know what will happen

It's horrible having to wait until Monday when your points are in and around the cut off point but you can't do anything until the offers come. No one here can predict whether the points will go up or down for any particular course.

Aragneer

With another language you are fine then. Unfortunately I can't tell you anymore than that. I know it is a long wait till Monday (trust me, I had the most horrendous experience with offers and results - didn't get offered anything even though I had points for my 2nd choice - fortunately wasa mistake on UL's system and now I'm a 4th year) but seriously, just try to enjoy the fact that you passed all of your exams and you have other choices on your cao, right?

Just keep calm, I know it is easy for me to say but yeah.. Chin up!

shakywaky

If after a recheck you are downgraded from your original grade and that means that your total combined points is now reduced and you are now below the points required for a course that you accepted in the first round offers, will the CAO take that place from you based on your new points?

rainbowtrout

shakywaky wrote: »

If after a recheck you are downgraded from your original grade and that means that your total combined points is now reduced and you are now below the points required for a course that you accepted in the first round offers, will the CAO take that place from you based on your new points?

I think in practice it doesn't happen. There were only 3 downgrades after the appeals last year, so the chances of it happening are miniscule anyway.

Appeals results don't come out until mid October so a lot students have already started their courses.

FlagNorFail

Would anyone care to wager a guess on how things are looking for CK 606 Architecture in UCC? Points were 420, 400, 400 for the past three years but apparently interest is up 15% in Architecture courses since last year

6thyearlife

I have 420 points, im pretty sure u have my second choice my first was 465 last year and i have DARE, is there any hope for this course with DARE ?

fishnetsxD

I have 465 points. So disappointed cause I only got a D1 in English and I have ordinary maths.

I want food science in UCD which was 470 last year. What are my chances of getting this? I've heard little chat on it so I'm hoping it'll go down a little bit.

My next choice is ag science which was 455 last year. Should I be safe enough?

now that I'm sober I'm worrying.

sarbear18

What do people think about primary teaching? It was 465 last year.. i have 470.

Lara_15

sarbear18 wrote: »

What do people think about primary teaching? It was 465 last year.. i have 470.

i thought it was 460? maynooth is 495 and im almost certain that its going up :?/ pretty sure im safe though. As far as the other 3 colleges I would say the points will be much the same, with maybe a jump of 5 points max, cant see it going over 470 tbh

fishnetsxD

Lara_15 wrote: »

i thought it was 460? maynooth is 495 and im almost certain that its going up :?/ pretty sure im safe though. As far as the other 3 colleges I would say the points will be much the same, with maybe a jump of 5 points max, cant see it going over 470 tbh

Loads of people are going into teaching so I can see that go up. I don't know a thing about it though

robman60

Anyone doing any of the Law courses in UCD? I'll be doing Law with Economics I think. I can see the points going up quite a bit. Demand for Law courses is up nationally so I'm predicting it'll be about 515.

minniemouse3

Ok so got my A-level results today... not great but wasnt expecting very much as the exams were dreadful to say the least. Anyways, I have calculated I have 215 points.. Ive applied for Business and French at Letterkenny IT and reaaaaaally want to get an offer on monday! Though last years points were 220 for this course, not feeling optimistic... any chance it'll go down by 5? :-(

MightyMandarin

robman60 wrote: »

Anyone doing any of the Law courses in UCD? I'll be doing Law with Economics I think. I can see the points going up quite a bit. Demand for Law courses is up nationally so I'm predicting it'll be about 515.

Law in UCD shouldn't go up by more than 10 points I reckon. Because it's such a big course (all the other options e.g Law+Economics, are under Dn600) it shouldn't be as volatile as other courses with less places. Even with the new building attracting people and the 4% national rise, I still think it'll be between 500-510

robman60

MightyMandarin wrote: »

Law in UCD shouldn't go up by more than 10 points I reckon. Because it's such a big course (all the other options e.g Law+Economics, are under Dn600) it shouldn't be as volatile as other courses with less places. Even with the new building attracting people and the 4% national rise, I still think it'll be between 500-510

I think that's an accurate assessment. I think it'll be 505-515 this year. I'm not concerned or anything just interested to see how it'll turn out.

MightyMandarin

robman60 wrote: »

I think that's an accurate assessment. I think it'll be 505-515 this year. I'm not concerned or anything just interested to see how it'll turn out.

I'll probably end up with Law and History if I don't get my first choice, which unfortunately is a very small course, so it's much harder to gauge what the threshold is.

robman60

MightyMandarin wrote: »

I'll probably end up with Law and History if I don't get my first choice, which unfortunately is a very small course, so it's much harder to gauge what the threshold is.

Doesn't that just come under the DN600 course title anyway? Therefore, won't the points be the same for all the Law and X courses?

MightyMandarin

robman60 wrote: »

Doesn't that just come under the DN600 course title anyway? Therefore, won't the points be the same for all the Law and X courses?

Nah, my first choice is Law and German in TCD, which was 515 last year but should rise this year, hopefully not by too much though. Law and History is my backup option, which is what I'll probably end up with if I miss out.