Liverpool Team Talk/Gossip/Rumours Thread 2014 - Mod Note in OP 28/8

K-9

SlickRic wrote: »

Rodgers has said categorically that we're looking for a forward, but the haggling does bother me.

this is not difficult. identify your target, a target who is going to go straight into the first team, improving us, and pay the money needed. simple. get it done.

I doubt we are going to buy a striker who can go into the first team ahead of Sturridge. Maybe that is what is informing the thinking. I'd say going 2 up top will be rare enough this season, more an option than anything used a lot.

at this moment in time, we are destined to burn Sterling out IMO. i've fairly sure Rodgers sees him as the heir apparent to the Suarez's role. i fear that over this season he will become utterly essential to the cause; something i don't believe he is quite ready for.

That thought crossed my mind the other night, he's been a regular in the pre season games after a WC. This is going to be his first full season in the PL. I suppose the squad options will be there to rest him at times.

Mr Alan

smileyj1987 wrote: »

I can honestly say I have 100% faith in the manager to get things right . BR isn't trying to build a team with lots of flashy players . I think the idea he has is to build a team that functions and plays for each other .
People say the run Liverpool went on last season was down to luck but I'm not having any of that from January of last year when his ideas and thoughts clicked in the squad you could see a team that played for each other.

You're absolutely totally ignoring the role Suarez played in our performances last season. And i don't mean only through his own brilliance, but through the chaos he caused for opposition defenses making life easier for the likes of Sturridge & Sterling.

In my opinion Suarez's brilliance was the single biggest factor behind our relative success last season.

8-10

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

He was potential at the time, nowhere near the player he was when he left.

Not saying that but I reckon he was in the same bracket as the Torres who left Atletico in 2007 is my point.

Augmerson

5starpool wrote: »

I'd like to know what they are smoking at LuckyLloyd's place right now.

Underpaid Mike

Messi played 29 games for Barca at 19 and is far from burnt out almost 10 years later
Sterling over the past year looks like he is training for a part in the 300, the amount of muscle he has put on is outrageous. Its showing in how he finished last season, his WC and what he has done in pre season. He has gone up a level (or 5) mainly due to his physicality.
Not sure burn out is an issue for someone like him. If he does tire or lose form we have Markovic, Coutinho, Lallana Ibe etc etc who could all do a job in his position
He along with Sturridge and Coutinho carry the weight of our season on their shoulders. If they can get the goals the rest of the team will do the rest.

Vinz Mesrine

8-10 wrote: »

Not saying that but I reckon he was in the same bracket as the Torres who left Atletico in 2007 is my point.

That was in my post. I rated him quite highly while others though he was potential, the same as Suarez. If you take Torres away then i cant think of a single world class player signed by Liverpool in my 30+ years.

These people expecting Falcao and players of that ilk are deluded beyond belief.

Mr Alan

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

That was in my post. I rated him quite highly while others though he was potential, the same as Suarez. If you take Torres away then i cant think of a single world class player signed by Liverpool in my 30+ years.

These people expecting Falcao and players of that ilk are deluded beyond belief.

You are aware things change, right?

8-10

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

Suarez was a long way from a superstar when liverpool bought him
He was a long way from a superstar under Daglish, BR system made him a superstar

Disagree strongly, but have had that discussion here before a number of times so not going to labour the point, but in my view he was on the way to being world class before he joined and would have pushed on regardless of where he moved.

I put the Suarez who joined and the Torres who joined in the same bracket at their respective times. Both improved at Liverpool but both were at a similar level when they joined (and were actually similar transfer fees). Torres maybe slightly higher rated but Suarez had the World Cup knockout experience the summer before which raised his profile. Lucky to have gotten both of them and I agree, outside of them there's no real record of signing top bracket players.

Underpaid Mike

8-10 wrote: »

Disagree strongly, but have had that discussion here before a number of times so not going to labour the point, but in my view he was on the way to being world class before he joined and would have pushed on regardless of where he moved.

I put the Suarez who joined and the Torres who joined in the same bracket at their respective times. Both improved at Liverpool but both were at a similar level when they joined (and were actually similar transfer fees). Torres maybe slightly higher rated but Suarez had the World Cup knockout experience the summer before which raised his profile. Lucky to have gotten both of them and I agree, outside of them there's no real record of signing top bracket players.

The point is he wasnt one of the top 20 players in the world, became that at Liverpool
He wasnt even in the top 20 players in the premiership after his first season you could argue, he left the best player in the league by a country mile and in the top 3 or 4 players on the planet.

Utopia Parkway

Illori doesn't want to go on loan this season. Wants to stay at Liverpool.

8-10

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

The point is he wasnt one of the top 20 players in the world, became that at Liverpool
He wasnt even in the top 20 players in the premiership after his first season you could argue, he left the best player in the league by a country mile and in the top 3 or 4 players on the planet.

Was simply commenting that he was in the same bracket as Torres was in 2007, in my opinion. I rated him very very highly back then, same as Torres. Both really pushed on at Liverpool. Both were a level up from the likes of Markovic, Cisse, Kewell, Collymore, Carroll, Lallana etc who all came in for big money also (Kewell aside but that was seen as a coup)

Cjs21

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

Suarez was a long way from a superstar when liverpool bought him
He was a long way from a superstar under Daglish, BR system made him a superstar

Hold on a sec.

Suarez played a wide position for a good bit of a few seasons in Ajax.

110 games and 81 goals isn't in the top bracket?

We signed him for £22.8 million when money was money and there wasn't any £75 million bids for Bale and £50 million bids for Luiz.

Suarez did join us a superstar, BR turned him into world class.

Underpaid Mike

When/if Moreno signs that'll be 7 full backs at the club: Johnson, Flanno, Manquillo, Kelly, Moreno, Robinson & Enrique.
2 if not 3 will surely go ?
Johnson, Enrique, Manquillo, Moreno will all play large parts of the season
Flanno will be a backup
Kelly and Robinson surely will go, hopefully Johnson goes too and we bring in a replacement

I am pie

As predicted Suarez leaving has opened the doors for the doom mongers to come flooding through.

Nothing the say or do will convince me that they wouldn't actually be glad for Liverpool to fail this year. We have the best manager we have had in years, finally got back into Europe, finished 2nd in the league last year and yet ...and yet.

It's pathetic.

Devilman40k

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

When/if Moreno signs that'll be 7 full backs at the club: Johnson, Flanno, Manquillo, Kelly, Moreno, Robinson & Enrique.
2 if not 3 will surely go ?
Johnson, Enrique, Manquillo, Moreno will all play large parts of the season
Flanno will be a backup
Kelly and Robinson surely will go, hopefully Johnson goes too and we bring in a replacement

Flanagan will be a bit more than backup, his performances last season deserve to be recognised as they were generally very good. Plus he has more experience than Manquillo at this level.

I'd say Johnsons days are numbered now...

Boom_Bap

Interesting one this -> http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/transfers/marco-reus-latest-liverpool-target-could-be-available-for-just-20m-as-borussia-dortmund-accuse-bayern-munich-of-trying-to-unsettle-star-9651817.html

Dickerty

Boom_Bap wrote: »

It's official -> http://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/latest-news/168205-reds-complete-manquillo-loan-move

Ah shoot, he has a twin brother? And he's a Right Back?

Vinz Mesrine

Mr Alan wrote: »

You are aware things change, right?

It's been 30 years, this won't change, accept it.

rob316

Wow this thread has gone mental. £80m for Falcao!

Mr Alan

Vinz Mesrine wrote: »

It's been 30 years, this won't change, accept it.

Everything changes.

Remember Utd used to win the league or come close every year? Then last year happened. Change.

This year they're hopeful of challenging again. Change.

Talisman

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

When/if Moreno signs that'll be 7 full backs at the club: Johnson, Flanno, Manquillo, Kelly, Moreno, Robinson & Enrique.
2 if not 3 will surely go ?
Johnson, Enrique, Manquillo, Moreno will all play large parts of the season
Flanno will be a backup
Kelly and Robinson surely will go, hopefully Johnson goes too and we bring in a replacement

Johnson is in the last year of his contract and he rejected the offer of a one year extension. Realistically no club is going to offer a decent fee for him and pay him what he's currently earning so we're stuck with him for this season.

NukaCola

I think people have to realise that Rodgers is building a squad the way he wants. I'm as cynical as anyone when it comes to transfers. I'd go as far to say that we've spent silly money on players, but I am perfectly happy to let Rodgers succeed or fail his own way. He really does deserve it and I hope he surprises us all again.

He came out and said we need a striker so he realises there is a need for one. We'll get someone in that BR wants, can work with and will fit into the way he wants to play. We wont be bringing in a Falcao or superstar names, I think we should all accept that and move on.

Harry Palmr

Liverpool FC ‏@LFC 8s
#LFC are pleased to announce the signing of Spanish youth international Javier Manquillo from @Atleti #ManquilloLFC

Well if its Wednesday...hopefully we'll manage another later today.

Underpaid Mike

Cjs21 wrote: »

Hold on a sec.

Suarez played a wide position for a good bit of a few seasons in Ajax.

110 games and 81 goals isn't in the top bracket?

We signed him for £22.8 million when money was money and there wasn't any £75 million bids for Bale and £50 million bids for Luiz.

Suarez did join us a superstar, BR turned him into world class.

Am i gonna have to pull out the Alfonso Alves stats again ? :eek::eek::eek::eek:

His first 2 seasons at liverpool he scored 15 goals in 42 league games.
That is not far off Kuyts strike rate
Hardly a superstar by any means.
Endless potential which he followed through on but Liverpool did not buy a polished gem, they turned him into that.
Would another club have done the same, problably

Knex*

This guy and Sterling, I am immensely looking forward to seeing this season.

NukaCola

Talisman wrote: »

Johnson is in the last year of his contract and he rejected the offer of a one year extension. Realistically no club is going to offer a decent fee for him and pay him what he's currently earning so we're stuck with him for this season.

Lets give West Ham a call

Augmerson

All this talk of us needing a striker and I'm just waiting for Emile Heskey's big comeback.



You know it makes sense.

tok9

I get it that some people don't care about how much we spend but seriously you would have to be out of your mind to think throwing the likes of £80 million at a player is a logical thing to do.

I'm just glad the staff in this transfer comity don't have the same ideas.. otherwise we'd be in administration at this stage.

Underpaid Mike

The mirror on how our transfer policy will pay dividends for years to come
Few lads on here probably need to read this

Liverpool sign Javier Manquillo: Another astute acquisition by a club specialising in finding young stars

It won't be one for the headlines. Nor will it be a signing that defines their season. But Liverpool's loan signing of Javier Manquillo is more evidence of something the Anfield club is doing better than most at the moment - finding young talent at great prices. A revamped scouting outlook, based out of Melwood and Kirkby but taking in key figures around Europe and the rest of the world, is beginning to throw up some gems for Brendan Rodgers to polish into diamonds and is perhaps the only real success of the pseudo-Moneyball strategy Fenway Sports Group attempted to install when they took over the club. Finding players with the potential to be world class, developing them into first-team stars and reaping the rewards before selling is hardly an original concept. Benfica and Porto do it exceptionally well in the Primeira Liga, albeit assisted by third-party ownership rules that allow them to mitigate risk in a way impossible for English clubs. That said, the signing of Manquillo by Liverpool is one that - like a third-party agreement - has all the upsides in favour of the Reds, and very few downsides. A two-year loan allows them to chart the progress of the Spaniard as Glen Johnson's eventual successor, while a paltry €6million purchase clause could be made to look especially silly if he develops as promised over the next 24 months. A focus on improving young players will be key pillar of Liverpool's plans over the next few seasons as they attempt to re-establish themselves as annual title contenders. Yes, the club will continue to buy players in their prime like Adam Lallana, bargain performers like Rickie Lambert and they will attempt to get proven, top-class players like Alexis Sanchez. But, as shown by the signing of Lazar Markovic, the club are equally as concerned with breeding the next superstars. And it's not just the Serb who catches the eye. Liverpool's youth recruitment in the last couple of seasons has raised eyebrows among scouting circles as they continue to hoover up some of the most exciting talent on the continent and at home. The likes of Jordon Ibe, plucked from Wycombe Wanderers for a minimal outlay, will become established Premier League players in the next 18-24 months and provide the next generation of Liverpool first-teamers. Those that don't make that grade will still be sold for a profit, like Oussama Assaidi and Fabio Borini. Javi Manquillo is well considered in the Atleti youth ranks and was coveted by Valencia, Arsenal and Marseille as one of Spain's hottest young talents outside La Liga. Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno Eurostar: Manquillo featured in Atletico's Champions League campaign last season With his contract at the Vicente Calderon extended earlier this year until 2018 it is something of a surprise that the Reds will be able to make the defender's signing permanent for such a small fee, and it could be a deal that the Madrid side regret in years to come. While Manquillo was far from a regular for Diego Simeone's battling Colchoneros last season, he had begun to break into the picture. His opportunities would have been even less limited had he not been injured in a crunch with Cristiano Ronaldo in the Copa del Rey, a lay-off of around two months. The deal is not completely stacked against Atletico Madrid. There is an option in the contract for 'recompra', or buyback, in the case that Liverpool make his switch permanent. This would, however, only be active if the Madrid club are in the Champions League, MirrorFootball understands. But the fact remains that Liverpool have picked up a potential star for a song, as they have with the likes of Luis Alberto, Coutinho and Tiago Ilori, and as they will continue to attempt as they pursue talent like MK Dons midfielder Dele Alli. In terms of his tough tackling and defensive output, Manquillo represents a solid signing who, with time, could improve his obvious weaknesses like his crossing. But as a prospect, the Spaniard is an acquisition that ticks all the Liverpool boxes and reminds us of the Reds' improving backroom work.

Harry Palmr

The Luckly Lloyd/Mr Alan etc, approach is classic fandom behaviour really. The result would be a hollowed out squad with the supposed "superstar" signing more or less obliged to deliver the goods - if goods go astray the club ends up with vastly expensive player on books who is then looking forward to a good cup run through gritted teeth and a squad still without a decent bench!

greendom

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

Messi played 29 games for Barca at 19 and is far from burnt out almost 10 years later
Sterling over the past year looks like he is training for a part in the 300, the amount of muscle he has put on is outrageous. Its showing in how he finished last season, his WC and what he has done in pre season. He has gone up a level (or 5) mainly due to his physicality.
Not sure burn out is an issue for someone like him. If he does tire or lose form we have Markovic, Coutinho, Lallana Ibe etc etc who could all do a job in his position
He along with Sturridge and Coutinho carry the weight of our season on their shoulders. If they can get the goals the rest of the team will do the rest.

I wouldn't be using Messi as a comparison point with anyone. I don't have the stats to prove it but I imagine he is among the most fouled players playing currently and yet, until this season, he doesn't seem to get injured. If he does he recovers amazingly quickly. The man is an anomaly.

8-10

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

Am i gonna have to pull out the Alfonso Alves stats again ?

Again, no comparison at all, goals don't tell the whole story. Suarez was on the path to being World Class, dominated the league and pulled his team to within a point or 2 of the league title.

Harry Palmr

Javier Manquillo interview in Spanish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1up8A3TmxIk

NyOmnishambles

I am pie wrote: »

As predicted Suarez leaving has opened the doors for the doom mongers to come flooding through.

Nothing the say or do will convince me that they wouldn't actually be glad for Liverpool to fail this year. We have the best manager we have had in years, finally got back into Europe, finished 2nd in the league last year and yet ...and yet.

It's pathetic.

And yet if we don't perform this year then last year means nothing

We can't afford to sit still and must be constantly striving to improve, a lot of the so-called Doommongers are of this mentality, it is called Winning

I would be far from a doom monger and am fairly positive in most things but we have yet to properly address Suarez in the squad, obviously he can't be replaced but we don't seem to have even tried to solve that problem yet

Until we hopefully do I think it is appropriate to be a little concerned about next season

8-10

City rumoured to be in for Falcao now. UK Independent has it up

Kingdom

Transfers will nearly always divide supporters. This is no different with Liverpool.
I am happy with the transfers that have actually happened so far, let that not be forgotten. The thing with them is, Lambert is definitely backup. Manquilo can not be considered a starter (yet). At this moment in time Lallana has taken Suarez place in the side, by allowing Coutinho to play up in the front 3. Markovic, for most, is not a guaranteed starter either.

Lovren we assume is going to either be a starter in a 3 man defence, or the new partner for Sakho, but I'd be surprised if he is a starter now, purely for logical reasons - he simply hasn't had gametime to build a partnership with Sakho.
That leaves Can, who has probably impressed most people, but again, who is he going to start in place of? Henderson? Lallana? Gerrard? Not a hope. So while the signings have definitely improved the squad, hugely, the first team I don't feel is stronger.
I don't feel the most obvious weakness, which was the glaring gap in the heart of the pitch has been solved, and the talisman man has gone.
The question was asked, why would Benzema play as understudy to Sturridge. Why would he indeed. I'd have in the team ahead of Sturridge to be honest, the chap is class.
Sturridge excelled last season, and in general since he signed. However, and maybe this is just me, to me there are some games where Sturridge just doesn't look like he will score, no matter how long the game goes for, and he had a couple of those at the tail of the season, albeit he was suffering with niggles. I would worry what will happen when the onus falls solely to him; it's fine to say that the manager expects everyone to chip in with a few goals extra, but the player himself will now regard himself as the no9, and thus burden more responsibility. It's one thing banging them in when Suarez is being Suarez, it's another when you become the focus of attention. To give him credit though, when he was on his todd at the start he did just fine.


The first six games of last season were very very favourable. Liverpool's start this season is manky. Even the handy home opener is manky, given the quirk in circumstances. I personally do not see the start to this season being near the start of last season, and I feel there could be huge pressure on the squad by the time we reach October.
It's getting repetitive at this stage, but really the club needs to hit the ground running again.
Was Koeman in charge of Benfica when they turned us over in the CL?

Devilman40k

NyOmnishambles wrote: »

And yet if we don't perform this year then last year means nothing

We can't afford to sit still and must be constantly striving to improve, a lot of the so-called Doommongers are of this mentality, it is called Winning

This year is NOT about improvement....it's about consolidation, making us consistent CL qualifiers, improvement would be winning the league,... I will state now..we are not going to win the league this season.

Remember what Rodgers and FSG's plan was back in 2012 - CL qualification in 2015/16..that we have managed that a year early is fantastic. We must hold on to that first before we talk about improvement

Underpaid Mike

To have any aspirations of finishing top 4 then a match v Southampton when we have taken 3 of their best players and they have lost 6+ starters from last season should be an expected 3 points. If not then its going to be a worrying season to be a Liverpool fan.
In saying that Villa beat Arsenal on the opening game of last season.

NyOmnishambles

Devilman40k wrote: »

This year is NOT about improvement....it's about consolidation, making us consistent CL qualifiers, improvement would be winning the league,... I will state now..we are not going to win the league this season.

Remember what Rodgers and FSG's plan was back in 2012 - CL qualification in 2015/16..that we have managed that a year early is fantastic. We must hold on to that first before we talk about improvement

Funnily enough I wasn't even thinking about winning the league when I was talking about improving

Looking at the teams around us and the business they have done improving this season would be staying in the top 4 imo

Last season was an abberation and should be treated as such, as much fun as it was we over achieved and it will take a similar over achievement this season to stay in the top 4

Devilman40k

NyOmnishambles wrote: »

Funnily enough I wasn't even thinking about winning the league when I was talking about improving

Looking at the teams around us and the business they have done improving this season would be staying in the top 4 imo

Last season was an abberation and should be treated as such, as much fun as it was we over achieved and it will take a similar over achievement this season to stay in the top 4

But....City and Chelsea are the teams around us

Cjs21

Underpaid Mike wrote: »

Am i gonna have to pull out the Alfonso Alves stats again ? :eek::eek::eek::eek:

His first 2 seasons at liverpool he scored 15 goals in 42 league games.
That is not far off Kuyts strike rate
Hardly a superstar by any means.
Endless potential which he followed through on but Liverpool did not buy a polished gem, they turned him into that.
Would another club have done the same, problably

I really have to disagree with you here, do you only remember Suarez from the 2010 world cup for the hand ball?

Did he not get man of the match in every match bar the 1st against France?

He score 17 goals in 23 games in Internationals (including WC 2010) in the 2 years before he signed for us?

Kingdom

Devilman40k wrote: »

This year is NOT about improvement....it's about consolidation, making us consistent CL qualifiers, improvement would be winning the league,... I will state now..we are not going to win the league this season.

Remember what Rodgers and FSG's plan was back in 2012 - CL qualification in 2015/16..that we have managed that a year early is fantastic. We must hold on to that first before we talk about improvement

On the first point, you are correct. Right now, I'd take top 4, and no success in anything else. I'd even take elimination at the group stage if the upside was top 4. The CL is crucial. The rivals for the top 4, if you consider City Chelsea & Arsenal rivals, have all improved their squads hugely. In Chelsea and Arsenals case, they've made their first XI stronger.

Now if you consider United, Spurs and Everton the rivals for top 4, then yes, Liverpool are probably in the best position. United look to be on a roll, albeit a pre-season roll, but they're playing well, and it's in attack where they faltered, and they look to be back in that traditional United groove.

On your second point, The football world, and the transfer market bubble has gone up a notch since FSG took over. Syurely they've redefined their goals, now that they've achieved what they were hoping for early.

It has to be said also, Liverpool were 1 win, 1 bloody win away from winning the league. The gap wasn't that big last season, and it would be absolute folly to allow it to get bigger with 1 transfer window, and the biggest warchest the club has ever had.

RayCun

Suarez was a marquee signing, seen as a striker on the same level as Torres (as he was at Liverpool). Club record signing for a few hours...

Devilman40k

Kingdom wrote: »

On your second point, The football world, and the transfer market bubble has gone up a notch since FSG took over. Syurely they've redefined their goals, now that they've achieved what they were hoping for early.

It has to be said also, Liverpool were 1 win, 1 bloody win away from winning the league. The gap wasn't that big last season, and it would be absolute folly to allow it to get bigger with 1 transfer window, and the biggest warchest the club has ever had.

I don't think FSG would be aiming at league win this season. Remember they want the club to be self sufficient. First step in that is continuous CL qualification... I'd love a title challenge as much as anyone, it would cement Rodgers as one of the best - particularly should he do it minus Suarez.

But I don't think we will..I think we'll fall short possibly 76-80pt mark this season. But I think City and Chelsea will be far beyond what they achieved last season - possibly both past 90pts - Pellegrini has a season in PL behind him as manager, Mourinho is rebuilding the core of the Chelsea side. they won't be so easily caught out this year.

So it's us Arsenal and Utd for the other 2 spots

whatawaster

Don't get the doom and gloom to be honest.

We have one of the best strikers in the league. His goalscoring record stands up to any Liverpool striker in history.
We have two "PL Proven" attacking midfielders, who happen to be two of the best and most exciting young players in the league. Sterling and Coutinho have already been involved in a title challenge. Neither of them shrunk under the pressure and expectation. In fact, both were terrific in the closing months of the season.
We have signed one of the most promising young players in Europe in Markovic, who has CL/EL football under his belt. We have Lallana who was one of the better attackers in the league last season.
We will, and I quote the manager here, be signing another striker.

People call for us to "show ambition." Well we tried to sign Sanchez, we failed. I don't see who are all these superstars and marquee signings we should be going after. Don't say Falcao, it's completely unrealistic.

Knex*

whatawaster wrote: »

Don't get the doom and gloom to be honest.

We have one of the best strikers in the league. His goalscoring record stands up to any Liverpool striker in history.
We have two "PL Proven" attacking midfielders, who happen to be two of the best and most exciting young players in the league. Sterling and Coutinho have already been involved in a title challenge. Neither of them shrunk under the pressure and expectation. In fact, both were terrific in the closing months of the season.
We have signed one of the most promising young players in Europe in Markovic, who has CL/EL football under his belt. We have Lallana who was one of the better attackers in the league last season.
We will, and I quote the manager here, be signing another striker.

People call for us to "show ambition." Well we tried to sign Sanchez, we failed. I don't see who are all these superstars and marquee signings we should be going after. Don't say Falcao, it's completely unrealistic.

I agree with everything you have said, but Rodgers has said a few times in past windows that we will be signing another forward/a big name/a midfielder, or whatever, only for it to transpire that the club couldn't get it done for whatever reason.

Now, while I am happy with the business done so far, I am starting to get a little edgy with regards to our need for a new striker. Sturridge injured already, and Lambert missing his pen and being a little unsettled, hasn't helped matters either.

brevity

Conor Coady is off to Huddersfield...

Tony Barrett ‏@TonyBarretTimes 6s

The fee for Coady is understood to be £500,000 plus add ons.

Mr Alan

whatawaster wrote: »

Don't get the doom and gloom to be honest.

We have one of the best strikers in the league. His goalscoring record stands up to any Liverpool striker in history.
We have two "PL Proven" attacking midfielders, who happen to be two of the best and most exciting young players in the league. Sterling and Coutinho have already been involved in a title challenge. Neither of them shrunk under the pressure and expectation. In fact, both were terrific in the closing months of the season.
We have signed one of the most promising young players in Europe in Markovic, who has CL/EL football under his belt. We have Lallana who was one of the better attackers in the league last season.
We will, and I quote the manager here, be signing another striker.

People call for us to "show ambition." Well we tried to sign Sanchez, we failed. I don't see who are all these superstars and marquee signings we should be going after. Don't say Falcao, it's completely unrealistic.

Do you think there is no players available who would be attainable and would significantly improve our starting 11?

We tried to sign Sanchez and failed. Fair enough. Move on to players of the same ilk. Don't just seemingly give up. The money is clearly there.
Yet we're a couple of weeks from the start of the season with Sturridge (injured), Lambert (unproven) and Borini (unproven and seemingly unwanted) as our striking options.

Underpaid Mike

Cjs21 wrote: »

I really have to disagree with you here, do you only remember Suarez from the 2010 world cup for the hand ball?

Did he not get man of the match in every match bar the 1st against France?

He score 17 goals in 23 games in Internationals (including WC 2010) in the 2 years before he signed for us?

Ah cmon man, lose the rose tinted glasses.
Last season for me Suarez was on par if not the best player on the planet.
But up until that point he needed to improve his finishing and his link up play and stop the diving. Do you not remember the 2011 season ?

Have a read of this, tis the statsbomb article written about suarez this May before he was sold. Look at what he did last season in comparison to his other seasons at Liverpool, he went from a good player to a superstar simple as that. We did not sign a player capable of scoring 30+ goals in the league, he got there either through his own determination or through the club putting everything in place for him to succeed. But dont go telling me he was a superstar when he arrived and everyone expected him to be the next Messi, thats BS. He joined and was expected to be a foil for Torres who then flucked off.

The Danger Of Predictions: Luis Suarez Edition

Published On May 1, 2014 » By tknutso » Boxes, Football, Player Analytics, Predictive Models, soccer
Suarez_hooray

Last summer, I said I thought Liverpool should sell Luis Suarez. There were a lot of reasons behind it, but most of it boiled down to the fact that Suarez was one of the worst high volume shooters in Europe when it came to converting shots into goals.

A non-penalty conversion rate of 8.7% in his first season in the league, followed by another of 12.3% in his second season weren’t impressive enough for me to think his dribbling (also inefficient) and ability to create his own shot were enough. Liverpool were already near the limit in how often teams can generally shoot in a game (19.4 in 2012-13), and in my opinion, Suarez’ inefficiency was keeping Liverpool from taking the next step and competing for a Champions League place.

Obviously, I was wrong, and Luis Suarez has been having one of the greatest scoring seasons in English Premier League history. He’s done it on the back of a conversion percentage that has improved by about 50% over what it was last season (and it was nearly 100% better for most of the season, before he eventually cooled off).

What bothers me isn’t that I was wrong.

If you have opinions about football and vocalize them, you will sometimes be wrong. If you make predictions based on probability, being wrong is a way of life (and I work in gambling, so this happens basically every day). If people want to pick you to bits and act like probabilities are certainties while ignoring all the positive stuff, there is not a damned thing you can do about it.

I have reviewed my work fairly regularly on this site, both when it comes to player analysis and to predictive models, and will continue to do so. I’m actually quite happy with the player modelling I’ve done over the last two years and ability to pick out likely transfer bargains via stats. I’m less happy with the predictive modelling and certain mistakes I made early in the season, but I’ll write about that another time.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand, I get things wrong all the time. That’s what happens when you express a lot of opinions. What bothers me, however, is wondering if I should have expected or predicted Suarez’s conversion increase.

How often do we see major leaps in conversion percentage for high volume shooters? And when we do see this, what are the possible explanations?

I think I now have enough player data to take at least a back of the envelope swipe at this topic, so let’s crunch some numbers and see what we get.

The Criteria
1) Players must be a high volume shooter. I set the cutoff for qualifying at 75 shots in a season, with at least 9 90’s worth of playing time. The reason for this choice is that lower volume shooters are likely to encounter a lot more variance. Even 75 shots in a season isn’t a huge amount, but if I upped the number to 100, I’d lose too much sample to make this worthwhile. Sometimes you work with what you’ve got.

As it is, I ended up with 100 names who had a multi-season dyad of 75-shot seasons to analyse (I counted Sturridge at LFC 2012-13 on a technicality, even though last year he had 70 shots, because I wanted to look at Liverpool players). Even this was imperfect because a few of those players had gaps between comparison seasons, but it was the best I could do. Out of the 100, I ended up with 166 dyads to compare. I would like more, obviously, but for now we’ll work with what we’ve got.

The next question is, what represents a significant improvement in conversion? 3%? 5%? Conveniently, the population had an average number of shots of 100 per season and an average conversion rate of on non-penalty shots of 11.5%, for the obvious 11.5 NPG per season (once in a while, math is easy). A 4% increase would represent just a hair over 33% bump in conversion arate and boost the average goals to 15.5 goals a year, which certainly feels significant.

So with a population of 166 dyads to compare, how often did we see a 4% or more improvement?

Answer: 24 times, or 14.5% of the time.

The bulk of those seasons were done by younger players (usually 22-24 years old), who for whatever reason made a big improvement in conversion percentages. Sturridge, Bale, and Lewandowski have both done it twice. Some of these are a bit awkward because they include guys like Tevez who transferred leagues and managers and posted a big improvement against different competition, but that’s football.

Alright, based on this smallish population, there’s a 14.5% chance someone will post a big gain in conversion percentage.

What about the inverse? Out of these 166 season-to-season comparisons, how many had a big fall?

Answer: 27 times or 16.3%. In reality, this is about the same as the jump, as these numbers aren’t nearly large enough represent a significant difference.

So 1 in 7 players will get a big bounce like Suarez did, and 1 in every 6 will hit a cliff and become less efficient. That’s more than I was expecting, but it’s still not frequent enough to call this a normal event.

What might cause a big boost?

Change of position, especially when wide players are played more centrally.
Improved shooting locations (typically via a change in tactics)
Less defensive pressure (via counter-attacking goals or throughball passes)
Better players around them. (Also likely to result in less defensive pressure)
Worse competition
The age curve. (On average, Forwards have their peak seasons between ages 24 and 26, which also coincides with peak male muscle mass at age 25. Thus younger players do tend to show improvement in this area.
And obviously the drops tend to be caused by the reverse of these things, including getting older.

Some More Notes
Suarez is converting 17.5% of his shots with two games left to play. How good is that? Well, out of 447 high volume seasons (this number is different because I’m not looking at season-to-season dyads), Suarez ranks 46th. However, out of the top 50 seasons in that stat, only 6 are from the Premier League. The vast majority of the top 50 are taken up by players who played in Spain or Germany, which makes sense because they tend to allow a much higher percentage of shots on target as well.

In short, it’s tough to convert in England.

Even more intriguingly, 3 of those 6 seasons happened this year – one by Sturridge, one by Aguero, and one by Suarez (all of whom also experienced a huge bump in conversion rate over last year as well). That’s really unusual. Hrm…

The Water In Liverpool
sterlingWhile I’m here, I probably should point out that Liverpool had a third player from this season experiencing a huge jump in conversion rate, but Raheem Sterling doesn’t shoot quite enough to qualify for the study (only 40 shots so far this year). He went from 5.9% last season to 22.5% this season though, which is in the top 5% for all FWD/AM seasons, period.

One player from Liverpool with a huge bump in conversion percentage I could believe. Two players with a huge bump from the same team, I would start to get sceptical. When all three players in your front line experience a huge leap at the same time… that ain’t chance.

My feeling is that this is less a “players got better” effect and more a “Brendan Rodgers found a tactical wrinkle.” Which is awesome work from the manager, because too often managers are inflexible instead of playing to the strength of their personnel. This change from Rodgers is hugely impressive, and effective. It remains to be seen if they can do like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich do and maintain an extremely high conversion rate from season to season.

The biggest question though, might be whether Rodgers can keep the efficiency in attack and sort out the defense…

What Happens Next Season?
Is a large leap in conversion rate like Suarez, Sturridge, and Aguero all experienced this season sustainable?

Unfortunately, we don’t really have enough data to know. In both cases for those personnel, you are likely to have the same manager at the club next season who will employ similar tactics, so that’s a positive start. This is especially true if you think Liverpool’s change of style from last season to this under Brendan Rodgers is a significant driver of the better finishing rates for Suarez, Sturridge, and Sterling.

I’m sceptical they can remain in the stratosphere for a second season in a row, if only because teams will start to adjust to what they’ve done this year tactically, and that will make it harder to score goals. I’m also sceptical because out of the 100 player sample, there are seven guys who have made a leap above 16% conversion rate and stuck it for at least one more season.

They have played for: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal/Manchester United, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen (the world missed out on Kiessling).

Wait, that’s only six.

Oh right, the seventh one was Roberto Soldado. [Cue: Spooky Scooby-Doo music] That was obviously before transferring to Tottenham this season.

It’s possible Liverpool are the new Real Madrid. But would I bet on two out of the three front men maintaining this level of finishing next season? Yikes.

Back to the Opening Question: Should Liverpool Have Sold Suarez?
Armed with just this study, should Liverpool have taken £42.5M or whatever Arsenal offered at the end? Remember, this was a player who was banned for biting Ivanovich coming in to the new season, who had also previously been banned for racist comments, and who was agitating for a move himself.

My answer would still be yes. With only a 1 in 7 chance that he’d make a leap to being a truly exceptional finisher this season, I would have sold him for an amount of money that looked slightly over the sticker price. (And it’s probably quite a bit worse than 1 in 7, because most “leaps” happen with younger players and Suarez turned 27 in January.)

However…

The analytics community has learned a lot in the last year, and one of the big things is that the ability to create your own shots is rare. The ability to do so while having at least reasonable shot quality is exceptionally rare.

Look at it this way – Andros Townsend had a ton of shots at the start of this season, but they were from an average of 25 yards out and had terrible goal expectation. In fact, he’s had 56 total shots and 1 goal so far this year, a goal which actually came off of a fluke, meant-to-be-a-cross. Anyone who can dribble and plays up front could probably be an Andros Townsend.

Suarez wasn’t like that. He did shoot too often from poor angles, but his overall expectation was actually solid. He’s been one of the most prolific shooters in Europe three years running, and he’s a capable passer as well.

Expect to see more about Suarez, Sturridge, and Sterling from guys like Colin Trainor and Paul Riley once the season ends, because people are going to want to unpack Liverpool shot locations and figure out what’s going on.

Anyway, in light of that information, would I have sold Suarez for 40M+?

No.

I was ignorant of how rare his skills are, so even without a potential bump in conversion, he was probably worth more in the Cavani range of £55-60M instead of £40M. Now, after having maybe the best (or second best) scoring season in Premier League history? Add another £20M.

So there you go. Some squishy math, a prediction/projection that went badly, but a whole heap of useful information learned in the process.

Until next time, make sure that anyone selling you snake oil at least wears a smile.

Link here to google cached version, it seems statsbomb no longer works which is disappointing.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wmiHCQJjzIAJ:www.statsbomb.com/2014/05/the-danger-of-predictions-luis-suarez-edition/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk

joe123

Anyone that thinks our first 11 is as good/stronger than last season with the way it is currently is wrong. Thats a fact.

We have lost our best player and have not come close to replacing him.

Arsenal are stronger.
Chelsea are stronger.
City are stronger/much the same.
United are stronger.

We are weaker. Our best player is gone and our striking options are Sturridge (injury prone), Lambert (not good enough/plan b) and Borini (not good enough and looks like he is on his way)

We will struggle if we dont bring in a proven goal scorer. Reus is meant to have a release clause for as little as 25 million next season. Why dont we approach Dortmund now and say heres 45-50 million.

Its like some of you have just given up any expectations of signing genuine world class talent. There was a time when we used to believe signing the likes of David Villa was possible.