Scottish Independence yea or nay

tbradman

Sheldons Brain wrote: »

This is one of the strangest and most misleading statements ever seen on Boards. Britain (and Ireland) re-denominated its currency, this has nothing whatsoever to do with revaluation.

As for the British balance of payments, it isn't great

You're right, I was talking rubbish! I had been looking at several different web sites and then went to type two different things but put ended up mixing them up in one sentence. My apologies to Sam Russell and you.

What I had meant to say in answer to Sam's first sentence was:


In 1971, Britain had no choice except to float the pound when the US left the gold standard, if they hadn't Britain would have to devalue anyway. I then got mixed up by Sam's reference to a fall from €2.40 to $1.60, referencing two different currencies and the 1971 conversion rate of 240d to 100p. Then my mind imploded and I failed to proof read what I had written.

A thousand mea culpa's to you on Sam, but on this point only...

bpb101

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What is interesting is the panic to offer loads of extra powers if the people in Scotland vote No, see front page of the Observer below. The No side already rejected the idea of offering these kind of things as part of the referendum question and postal votes have been submitted since last week. This is another cynical attempt to bribe the electorate

does that article say what these powers will be. There getting nervous:D

Fratton Fred

Sam Russell wrote: »

I'm not suggesting any such thing that a YES result will allow such industrial jobs back into Scotland, just that under Margaret Thatcher those jobs were lost as a direct result of UK Government policies that beggared the areas of the UK outside the SE of England. Once industries close down, it is almost impossible to restart them.

Her policy was to favour her parties rich friends in the City of London, and disadvantage the Unions. UKIP are against the EU and against Scottish independance - how's that for hippocracy?

What have ukip got to do with anything?

Those jobs were going. As I pointed out, four of the worlds five largest ship builders are in Korea. All of the top ten are in Japan, China and Korea. It is a changing world.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is a changing world and the UKIP nutters will be out campaigning for No on Friday then the Orange Order on Saturday. They should join forces and hold the events on the same day as it will be better together!

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is a changing world and the UKIP nutters will be out campaigning for No on Friday then the Orange Order on Saturday. They should join forces and hold the events on the same day as it will be better together!

What have ukip and the orange order got to do with anything?

Fratton Fred

AlanS181824 wrote: »

Nope!

Irish parents.

English grandparents.

Dutch great grandparents.

I just think Scotland is so very different from England that it deserves independence.

The way you suggested the Wales and NI should also get independence made me think you were English. That is an ideal scenario for England, or maybe some sort of alliance between the supposed Celtic countries. Whatever way it works, no one would benefit more from independence than England.

Fratton Fred

mmmcake wrote: »

Scotland will have gas for its own needs, maybe not the rest of the UK. The scots could be the only source of gas to to England , they could ask for a serious premium price, where else could England get it from if russia is not selling gas to europe.

Scotland and England are not going to get involved in a trade war, there are no winners in that.

Sam Russell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What have ukip got to do with anything?

Those jobs were going. As I pointed out, four of the worlds five largest ship builders are in Korea. All of the top ten are in Japan, China and Korea. It is a changing world.

UKIP are campagning for Scotland not to break from the UK, but fir the UK to break from the EU. Double standards.

Yes, shipbuilding was going, but the jobs have not been replaced. The new jobs are for the City of London.

Sam Russell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

What have ukip and the orange order got to do with anything?

Only that they are both further to the right than Attilla the Hun.

bpb101

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is a changing world and the UKIP nutters will be out campaigning for No on Friday then the Orange Order on Saturday. They should join forces and hold the events on the same day as it will be better together!

Jesus , the uk must be fierce desperate when the send out the orange order out to rally a few votes

ShooterSF

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The way you suggested the Wales and NI should also get independence made me think you were English. That is an ideal scenario for England, or maybe some sort of alliance between the supposed Celtic countries. Whatever way it works, no one would benefit more from independence than England.

Begs the question then why the government are trying to push a no vote.

bpb101

ShooterSF wrote: »

Begs the question then why the government are trying to push a no vote.

oil

Sam Russell

ShooterSF wrote: »

Begs the question then why the government are trying to push a no vote.

Well the full name of the larger party in the UK coallition government is:

The Conservative and Unionist Party.

I think the clue is the the bold bit of their name.

AlanS181824

Fratton Fred wrote: »

The way you suggested the Wales and NI should also get independence made me think you were English. That is an ideal scenario for England, or maybe some sort of alliance between the supposed Celtic countries. Whatever way it works, no one would benefit more from independence than England.

You sure about that?

Makes me wonder why Cameron and his clan are pushing "to save the union."

Fratton Fred

AlanS181824 wrote: »

You sure about that?

Makes me wonder why Cameron and his clan are pushing "to save the union."

Because it doesn't look good on his cv?

Fratton Fred

Sam Russell wrote: »

UKIP are campagning for Scotland not to break from the UK, but fir the UK to break from the EU. Double standards.

Yes, shipbuilding was going, but the jobs have not been replaced. The new jobs are for the City of London.

Shipbuilding in London ended centuries ago?

So ukip are hypocritical, but the SNP who want to join the eu aren't? How does that work then?

Ukip are irrelevant though, they are a minor party who did well from a few protest votes.

A Dub in Glasgo

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Because it doesn't look good on his cv?

That will be it alright

Sam Russell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Shipbuilding in London ended centuries ago?

The jobs in the City of London are for the rich friends of the Tories and are in 'Finacial' services.

So ukip are hypocritical, but the SNP who want to join the eu aren't? How does that work then?

Not quite - SNP want to have the same status as we do. Not unreasonable. UKIP want to retain sovereignty, but not yield it.

Ukip are irrelevant though, they are a minor party who did well from a few protest votes.

They are really just a breakaway group from the Tories - more a Margaret Thatcher wing if you like.

bpb101

AlanS181824 wrote: »

Makes me wonder why Cameron and his clan are pushing "to save the union."

I haven't got a link as I heard it on the news. There is calls for Cameron to resign if he loses the scots (even though he isent involved in trying to stop them )

jank

This could be very bad for Ireland if Scotland decide to go it alone. Don't need more uncertainty with its largest trading partner at the moment.

Fr Tod Umptious

jank wrote: »

This could be very bad for Ireland if Scotland decide to go it alone. Don't need more uncertainty with its largest trading partner at the moment.

And it puts a major competitor to our FDI right on our door step, with better infrastructure.

Gordon

It amazes me how there are still a lot of people that think we can go back to the uk if independence turns out putting us into a worse position than before.

There is no going back.

If things go arseways after full independence, we have people going into poverty, our country messed up and then ask Uk if we can come back and join them again? And Uk will want a fecked up country will they? How many people in England will vote in a referendum for a destitute Scotland to join the uk?

Fair enough if people want to trust in politician Alex Salmond's crystal ball and believe his plans, that's at least a semi thought out position, but placing a vote with the plan on reverting in the future is extremely daft.

jank

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And it puts a major competitor to our FDI right on our door step, with better infrastructure.

Indeed. I wonder what the 'self proclaimed' nationalists answer to that one would be. This could have a serious impact for Ireland's economic future for the next half century. I for one hope the union remains as it is purely for national self interest.

Fratton Fred

Sam Russell wrote: »

The jobs in the City of London are for the rich friends of the Tories and are in 'Finacial' services.


Not quite - SNP want to have the same status as we do. Not unreasonable. UKIP want to retain sovereignty, but not yield it.


They are really just a breakaway group from the Tories - more a Margaret Thatcher wing if you like.

You'd be surprised actually at who does work in the city. Sure, there's a load of old Etonian types, but the majority of the ones I've met are normal guys from normal backgrounds. People think of the city as being all traders and stock brokers, but the reality is very different. I've worked in both the square mile and Canary wharf and the vast majority of people I worked with were IT professionals, admin staff etc.

Quite why you think the success of London as a financial centre has impacted on ship building I don't know, you may as well blame farmers in Somerset or fishermen in Grimsby.

I know exactly what UKIP are and to be honest, I see very little difference between them and the SNP. their campaigns seem to both involve creating a nationalist fervour that is based on themuns taking our jobs and money and bossing us around so we'd be much better off on our own.

jank

Fratton Fred wrote: »

You'd be surprised actually at who does work in the city. Sure, there's a load of old Etonian types, but the majority of the ones I've met are normal guys from normal backgrounds. People think of the city as being all traders and stock brokers, but the reality is very different. I've worked in both the square mile and Canary wharf and the vast majority of people I worked with were IT professionals, admin staff etc.

Quite why you think the success of London as a financial centre has impacted on ship building I don't know, you may as well blame farmers in Somerset or fishermen in Grimsby.

I know exactly what UKIP are and to be honest, I see very little difference between them and the SNP. their campaigns seem to both involve creating a nationalist fervour that is based on themuns taking our jobs and money and bossing us around so we'd be much better off on our own.

That is a good post in fairness. Some people and commentators like to portray the City of London or other financial centers around the world as being populated exclusively by either Gordon Geko's or Jordon Belfort. The vast vast majority of people who work there are normal everyday people like you said.

In regards SNP being like UKIP. You are exactly right. However, nationalism for wee old Scotland is seen as acceptable my the mainstream media. The kilt wearing braveheart underdog is something the media can get behind.

However, English or UK nationalism is seen as a hark back to the empire or imperialism of old. Therefore this is of course not acceptable by the mainstream. It is OK for Alex Salmond to say he is proud to be Scottish but would you ever ever hear Tony Blair say that he is proud to be English? Not at all because today, being proud of England or Britain is akin to being a EDL skinhead or a supporter of the BNP. You can thank the BBC, the Guardian, the Labour party and well meaning sociology professors of the liberal arts or human rights studies for that juxtaposition

A Dub in Glasgo

If you guys had even looked into the referendum campaign in Scotland, you will find that it is primarily a self determination argument based on social values. There are very few die-hard Nationalist Scots involved in the Yes campaign (or if they are, they are well hidden). In fact most of the 'I am fiercly proud to be Scottish' types are the ones in the No poster, leaflet & TV adverts

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/english-yes-campaigners-independence-means-we-escape-westminster-not-our-friends-in-t.25252636

The camparison to UKIP is laughable

Fratton Fred

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

If you guys had even looked into the referendum campaign in Scotland, you will find that it is primarily a self determination argument based on social values. There are very few die-hard Nationalist Scots involved in the Yes campaign (or if they are, they are well hidden). In fact most of the 'I am fiercly proud to be Scottish' types are the ones in the No poster, leaflet & TV adverts

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/english-yes-campaigners-independence-means-we-escape-westminster-not-our-friends-in-t.25252636

The camparison to UKIP is laughable

Westminster or Brussels, sounds like the same argument to me. Especially when someone on the yes side is claiming jobs in London resulted in job losses in Scotland.

Kunkka

jank wrote: »

This could be very bad for Ireland if Scotland decide to go it alone. Don't need more uncertainty with its largest trading partner at the moment.

I'd also be worried about Republican reaction in NI to a Yes vote. It could stir things again in the North and you'd have to bet that SF would then push for talk about a referendum there too eventually which would lead to a bad reaction from the Loyalist community.

I have to say though. Where has Ed Milliband been throughout this debate on Scottish independence? Has he been purposely useless or just complacent? I'm pretty confident a Yes vote will be carried now with the momentum it is receiving.

BoJack Horseman

Kunkka wrote: »

I have to say though. Where has Ed Milliband been throughout this debate on Scottish independence?

Doing the sensible thing and staying out.
Let the local labour leadership take care of it

Joe Doe

Both the latest polls and I are expecting 51%+ to say 'ack aye' to the referendum.

The odds oddly indicate otherwise which is a very curious circumstance.
P'powers offering some of the very best odds at x3.25 of your stake currently for Rep'o'Scotia etc...
Generous if it stays at the +51% trend.

Remember folks in land of Scotia, bring in and USE A PEN OR MARKER if you're up there voting for the aul ack ayes (if allowed?). A standard B2 soft pencil could be so fast and easy to erase and re-apply. Have seen many a cardboard vote box secured only with couple plastic ties either side. Speculating it would only take a couple of seconds to cut and reapply during storage, transit etc although very unlikely, there is so much external vested interest in a vote such as this. So if there was even the smallest chance of this of occurring a permanent mark may help.

Expecting 1st item of the agenda to be an deserved increase the heating allowance for the older generation, as it gets rather nippy up there, £500 worth of winter oil would help keep them toasty.

Jimmy Bottles

Got odds of 4/9 on Paddy Power for a no vote. Odds have now fallen back to 1/3.

Its like printing money. No way the Scots will vote yes, irrespective of what the polls say.

Joe Doe

Indeed the no vote is still very short, best return is only x1.36 your stake. Last week it was up to x5 R'O'Investment for a yes vote.

Very uncharted territory, think it will come down to emotive action on the day. freedom v's security. Odds likely to swing either way before the big day arrives.

Jimmy Bottles

I think I'll put down more cash on a no vote if the odds go above 1/2. Doubt it will happen though. Combative action by the no side in the coming week will ensure a swing back to the no side I'd say.

Jelle1880

Joe Doe wrote: »

Both the latest polls and I are expecting 51%+ to say 'ack aye' to the referendum.

The odds oddly indicate otherwise which is a very curious circumstance.
P'powers offering some of the very best odds at x3.25 of your stake currently for Rep'o'Scotia etc...
Generous if it stays at the +51% trend.

Remember folks in land of Scotia, bring in and USE A PEN OR MARKER if you're up there voting for the aul ack ayes (if allowed?). A standard B2 soft pencil could be so fast and easy to erase and re-apply. Have seen many a cardboard vote box secured only with couple plastic ties either side. Speculating it would only take a couple of seconds to cut and reapply during storage, transit etc although very unlikely, there is so much external vested interest in a vote such as this. So if there was even the smallest chance of this of occurring a permanent mark may help.

Expecting 1st item of the agenda to be an deserved increase the heating allowance for the older generation, as it gets rather nippy up there, £500 worth of winter oil would help keep them toasty.

'Polls' ?

This is how the big 6 polls see the No vote at the moment:

YouGov -2
Panelbase +4
Survation +6
ICM +9
TNS-BMRB +13
Ipsos Mori +14

So basically you have YouGov (who recently changed their methodology without explanation) saying Yes is in the lead, all the other ones (of which I see Panelbase as the most believable) say No still has a decent lead.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is only 1 poll that has caused this panic. Probably more useful to put the date when the poll took place

YouGov -2 6th September
Panelbase +4 6th September
Survation +6 29th August
ICM +9 13th August
TNS-BMRB +13 7th August
Ipsos Mori +14 3rd August

I think we can safely discount the ICM, TNS & Ipsos polls

stevedublin

Jimmy Bottles wrote: »

No way the Scots will vote yes, irrespective of what the polls say.

why?

Jimmy Bottles

stevedublin wrote: »

why?

All the scaremongering of the no side is bound to affect those when marking their ballot paper.

That one poll from yesterday showing a 51% yes vote is a completely anomaly IMO.

A Dub in Glasgo

It is not an anomaly at all, the trajectory of You Gov No falling and Yes rising is there over the last month

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

It is not an anomaly at all, the trajectory of You Gov No falling and Yes rising is there over the last month

The trajectory is clear.

However there needs to be a few more polls showing Yes>No to confirm the YouGov as not an aberration.

bpb101

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

The trajectory is clear.

However there needs to be a few more polls showing Yes>No to confirm the YouGov as not an aberration.

there does of course but the problem is ...that may happen

porsche959

porsche959

According to lastest update from Guardian, poll due tomorrow is expected to confirm Yes vote narrowly ahead:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/08/scottish-independence-12-days-to-referendum-live#block-540dc236e4b0678f1b1106d6

bpb101

porsche959 wrote: »

According to lastest update from Guardian, poll due tomorrow is expected to confirm Yes vote narrowly ahead:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/08/scottish-independence-12-days-to-referendum-live#block-540dc236e4b0678f1b1106d6

was actually looking to see when the next poll would come out. thanks. Differently going to be one to look at

A Dub in Glasgo

I have seen and heard the trajectory myself over the last month. Many many more people are openly saying they have voted or will vote Yes and a lot more Yes stickers / badges / posters around the place

mmmcake

Cant find it now but a few months a go read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph, a Chinese official told him off the record there is no way London will let Scotland go. They will come up with something to make it stay part of the union.
Could the west over reaction the the Ukraine be this something that London will use to hold onto Scotland, the reds are coming and for the sake of national security at this time we cannot break the union.

bpb101

here is the real stats from the you gov polls ."Scottish people" born in Scotland are voting yes by a huge margin. Whats really bringing down the vote is English people now living in the Scotland

comongethappy

bpb101 wrote: »

here is the real stats from the you gov polls ."Scottish people" born in Scotland are voting yes by a huge margin. Whats really bringing down the vote is English people now living in the Scotland

That's an incredible difference.

So one way or another, the English will scupper independence.

tbradman

mmmcake wrote: »

Cant find it now but a few months a go read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph, a Chinese official told him off the record there is no way London will let Scotland go. They will come up with something to make it stay part of the union.
Could the west over reaction the the Ukraine be this something that London will use to hold onto Scotland, the reds are coming and for the sake of national security at this time we cannot break the union.

I don't think Chinese officials really understand the concept of a democratic vote... It will be down to the people who vote on the day as to whether Scotland leaves or stays.

If the people vote Aye, then Scotland is gone, there is nothing London or Beijing can do about it.

mmmcake

Lets hope it is a 100% fair democratic vote, with no allegations from either side.

porsche959

comongethappy wrote: »

That's an incredible difference.

So one way or another, the English will scupper independence.

I have a real problem with this kind of polling.

It encourages a nasty Anglophobia that unfortunately exists at the edges of the Yes campaign.

PS incidentally the metric is "borne elsewhere in UK" so not just English born - are plenty of Northern Irish living in Scotland, I imagine, and presumably some Welsh also.