Scottish Independence yea or nay

eeepaulo

Gerry T wrote: »

yes, you will get people agreeing with both sides of the argument. The point Stiglitz made was Scotland can use Sterling with or without the UK input. From what he intimated if the UK didn't agree then Scotland would have no control over Sterling. But then what control have we Irish over the Euro currency.

Have read the article you linked and the only comment quoted from Rogoff was
"It's certainly a disaster for Scotland, first and foremost, it's going to be a horrible adjustment".
Is that it, the adjustment will be tough ? he must get well paid for those gems.

A yes vote could go horribly wrong, a disaster, we won't know. But at least Scotland will make their own decisions based on what's best for people living in Scotland. England looks after English people first, that's not good for Scotland.

I am pointing out that stiglitz is an advisor to the scottish government.

Gerry T

eeepaulo wrote: »

I am pointing out that stiglitz is an advisor to the scottish government.

True, propably beacuse he favours the yes vote. Can't see a respected economist being paid to take a side unless he believes in it and one with a reputation as his would make a valued advisor.

And yes I would agree there are many economists, just as bright that favour the no vote. The reason I mentioned him was to address a post about how the UK won't let Scotland use sterling. When they don't have a say according to Stiglitz.

Maybe Scotland uses Stg for 5 yrs and then moves to Euro. Next to leave is Wales and then N.I. so what do we call the non entity great britain, little britain ?

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Gerry T wrote: »

Maybe Scotland uses Stg for 5 yrs and then moves to Euro. Next to leave is Wales and then N.I. so what do we call the non entity great britain, little britain ?

Little Britain is technically Brittany in France

Godge

Gerry T wrote: »

. From what he intimated if the UK didn't agree then Scotland would have no control over Sterling. But then what control have we Irish over the Euro currency.

You see, that is just plain wrong.

Ireland is able to borrow in Euros because it is a part of the Euro and has a vote at the ECB and an input into ECB decisions.

That is extremely different to Scotland not being able to borrow and having no input into Bank of England decisions.

If Scottish people cannot see the difference and vote on that basis, well what can you say.

Godge

Gerry T wrote: »

I don't agree that is what the no side would do if the yes win. Pre election they say that to get people to vote no. post election all bets are off and the UK will make decisions based on what's best for them. They may well say no at that point but that decision won't be made until all the facts come clear.

But more importantly a nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says Scotland can use sterling after the election with or without Englans approval
http://www.cityam.com/1410708099/joseph-stiglitz-scottish-independence-no-basis-fear-mongering-and-currency-non-issue

We tried that before, pegging our currency to sterling and it nearly bankrupted the country.

ardmacha

Gerry T wrote:

Maybe Scotland uses Stg for 5 yrs and then moves to Euro. Next to leave is Wales and then N.I. so what do we call the non entity great britain, little britain ?

I imagine that if Scotland, Wales and NI leave the UK, the remainder will be called England, but who can say?

Godge

n-dawg wrote: »

I'll accept that most of them are yes voters, but it is hard to find no voters who are willing to talk in Glasgow.

As I've already said, the yes camp wanted to pre-negotiate independence before the vote. Westminster (no camp) refused. Most of the now unanswered questions are due to this refusal to pre negotiate...

While some of the points the no camp are valid, especially with regards to R&D funding. Some of them have been shocking, implying that Scotland will be a basket case, when clearly it wont!

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The Scottish Government asked the EU for the legal opinion on what would happen in the event of Scottish Independence. They refused to give that legal opinion as they rightly said it has to be asked by the UK Government. The SG asked the UK Government to ask the EU and the UK Government refused.

It is that refusal of the UK Government that has caused this uncertainty

There is no uncertainty.

The EU legal position is quite clear. Scotland will have to reapply to join the EU.

The financial situation is also quite clear. IF Scotland is able to borrow while using sterling as its currency it will have to pay a premium on the interest rate (and it is a big IF).

The "Yes" campaign pretends that the above is not true and says that it is not clear.

However, on the good news side for the "yes" campaign, if the vote is close (less than 55% no), there will probably be significant pressure on Westminister to negotiate a draft independence treaty that could be put to the Scottish people at a later stage and which would make things a lot clearer.

If there is a strong "no", closer to 60%, I can't see that happening and Scottish independence will be set back. The mistake of the "yes" campaign was to grab an independence vote when offered without getting answers to the questions.

n-dawg

Huge Demo in the center of Glagow...

http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/YesInfoRally

A Dub in Glasgo

Godge wrote: »

There is no uncertainty.

The EU legal position is quite clear

There is and it is not

Godge wrote: »

The mistake of the "yes" campaign was to grab an independence vote when offered without getting answers to the questions.

To get the answers you say will have meant the UK Government playing ball, they would not therefore the answers are not forthcoming

Gerry T

Godge wrote: »

You see, that is just plain wrong.

Ireland is able to borrow in Euros because it is a part of the Euro and has a vote at the ECB and an input into ECB decisions.

That is extremely different to Scotland not being able to borrow and having no input into Bank of England decisions.

If Scottish people cannot see the difference and vote on that basis, well what can you say.

First Scotland will have no problem borrowing, with its natural resources as collateral. Secondly IRL vote in europe is so small we have equivalent to no say in valuation of the euro.

Gerry T

ardmacha wrote: »

I imagine that if Scotland, Wales and NI leave the UK, the remainder will be called England, but who can say?

ahm that was a joke, play on the tv show. by the way NI is not in GB, that's united kingdom

Grudaire

So an the eve of the election, as an Irishman who would like to see independence..

Is there any realistic chance of a YES win at this stage?

Jelle1880

Grudaire wrote: »

So an the eve of the election, as an Irishman who would like to see independence..

Is there any realistic chance of a YES win at this stage?

There is, but most polls seem to give No the advantage with the bookies following suit.

I think No will win, but it'll be narrow.

edit:

Britain Elects @britainelects · 15s
Scottish Independence Poll (Survation):
YES - 47%
NO - 53%

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 52s
EXCL: Britain will hold together - but only just, YouGov/Sun poll on #indyref tonight predicts; No 52%, Yes 48%

David Wyllie ‏@journodave 41s
YOUGOV: No 52 Yes 48
SURVATION: No 53 Yes 47 #indyref

So far there's about 5 or 6 polls saying the exact same, make of that what you will.

Scofflaw

Heh - article by Niall Ferguson for the Telegraph:

No good deed goes unpunished. In granting residents of Scotland a referendum on their country’s political future, David Cameron surely thought he was doing a good deed. The Scottish National Party would have to put up or shut up. A Yes vote would be a victory for them. A No vote would be a victory for the Scottish Labour Party bigwigs to whom Mr Cameron entrusted the campaign against independence, in the belief that he – despite being the son of a Scotsman – was less qualified than they to make the case for the Union.

If Mr Cameron gave a thought to his own self-interest, it can only have been a fleeting one. Before he became prime minister, I once suggested to him that a referendum on Scottish independence might be a Machiavellian masterstroke. If it went the wrong way, I suggested, playing devil’s advocate, might not the Tories rule for ever more in the remaining UK?

I hope I betray no confidences when I say that a cloud crossed his face at this suggestion. Mr Cameron was, and remains, a staunch Unionist. Like me, he abhors the thought of the break-up of Britain. His family tree, like that of my three half-English children, is the Union in microcosm.

Perhaps, on reflection, he was therefore not Machiavellian enough. For he must surely now regret his good deed. Whatever the result on Thursday – unless by some poll-defying miracle it is a decisive “No” – Mr Cameron seems certain to be weakened by it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html

This is fabulous stuff - Cameron as the self-abnegating statesman. Always willing to do the right thing, even at his own expense.

And the poncy "I hope I betray no confidences". I love that touch. But it reminds me of a certain David McWilliams and a Minister for Finance to whom he suggested a clever scheme, a Machiavellian masterstroke that would rescue Ireland's banks at no cost to the State...McWilliams even used exactly that term "masterstroke".

Timeo economistes et ferentes consilio.

cordially,
Scofflaw

tbradman

Well today is Scotlands day. Good luck to all in Scotland, hope it all works out for the best.


As an Irish person I have no preference or advice on how the vote should go, but as an observer of History, the next 24 hours will be fascinating.

fryup

^^^^^^^^^^

is there much interest in australia about this??

tbradman

fryup wrote: »

^^^^^^^^^^

is there much interest in australia about this??

In the last month or so there has been increasing number of stories on the main news stations as we get closer to the vote (SBS and ABC). So it is getting plenty of coverage at the moment. Also PM Tony Abbott had one of his many brain farts on TV a couple of weeks ago when he waded in with both feet in his mouth.

I guess about 9million of the population (23.6million) is of English/Irish/Scots descent. The current PM was born in London, the previous one was in Barry, Wales.

No matter what country you live in, you can't get away from politicians...!

jank

I think the No will have it by a larger margin than people think.

Frank Lee Midere

tbradman wrote: »

In the last month or so there has been increasing number of stories on the main news stations as we get closer to the vote (SBS and ABC). So it is getting plenty of coverage at the moment. Also PM Tony Abbott had one of his many brain farts on TV a couple of weeks ago when he waded in with both feet in his mouth.

I guess about 9million of the population (23.6million) is of English/Irish/Scots descent. The current PM was born in London, the previous one was in Barry, Wales.

No matter what country you live in, you can't get away from politicians...!

Surely it's much higher.

Edit: yes it is - the Anglo/Celtic proportions are 74%.

Frank Lee Midere

jank wrote: »

I think the No will have it by a larger margin than people think.

I think either YES will win it or run it close. The reason is that the negative NO campaign (with some exceptions like the better together rally) isn't energising that vote. The polls seem to be assuming that only the don't knows won't vote and I haven't seen any controls for unlikely to vote.

BoJack Horseman

After months of kicking the independence movement, the Torygraph are taking bias to the next level.

All top 4 headlines attacking Scotland/Scottish people/'Yes' campaign:

Telegraph view: Whatever the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum, Britain will never be the same again

Threats, intimidation and abuse: the dark side of the Yes campaign exposed

Allison Pearson: Salmond was less popular than Ebola

Niall Ferguson: Alone, Scotland will go back to being a failed state

When papers like this practically create Tory party policy, I'm baffled why anyone would want to stay part of that Union.

Can you imagine what they would hurl at the Irish if we were voting for independence?

Sam Russell

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Can you imagine what they would hurl at the Irish if we were voting for independence?

100 years ago, the Home Rule (Ireland) bill was voted into law. It never became law. Let us hope the if Scotland does vote YES, that they do not suffer the same threat. It is possible that the UK Government might find some legal reason to go back on all their pledges.

I hope a many people in Scotland vote today, and they do with the sense of history that the day and the vote deserve.

This is a vote for the very long term, but many of the campaign slogans have dealt with very short term issues. The one item missing from the debate was the lack of commitment for follow-on referendums for, say, the ratification for the new constitution, the terms for re-joining the EU, the terms for a settlement with the UK, whether to apply for UN membership, etc.

A fantastic example to the world of open democracy. Well done Scotland.

tipptom

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

I'm not saying it's the right attitude to have but it's certainly the attitude you see time and again when it comes to referendums here.

But that's because the nurses wont get paid and patients will die,guards wont get paid and they will then rob everything out of the ATMs because they can and I will go to get my bus fare out of it in the morning and Nada,to quote Frazier from Dads Army,were all doomed I tell yis doooomed.

alastair

Godge wrote: »

We tried that before, pegging our currency to sterling and it nearly bankrupted the country.

No it didn't. We had fifty years of parity with sterling (without the consent of the UK - just as Scotland could opt for - EU membership allowing), and the only real period of vulnerability was that of high inflation in the 70's, following on from the oil crisis. Ireland wasn't alone in that regard; many European countries without any link to sterling had similar problems. It's also worth pointing out that Ireland had a similar spell of high inflation once it entered the EMS and split from parity with sterling.

That's not to say that sterling parity was/is the best option for Ireland or Scotland, but it certainly didn't threaten Ireland with bankruptcy, when we opted to go that route.

Fratton Fred

Sam Russell wrote: »

100 years ago, the Home Rule (Ireland) bill was voted into law. It never became law. Let us hope the if Scotland does vote YES, that they do not suffer the same threat.

Threat of what, a world war?

bpb101

Going to be great to 24 hrs . I would have wished it was counted in the day . Nothing here beats rte the country decides. The buzz waiting on results. Especially when it's close. If anybody watched the seneand referendum results. Came down to potentialy the last box

Edit : also if anybody is going to follow it tonight.
Stv which is live streamed on their website is going to go all night from end of poll close at 10pm

jank

Scofflaw wrote: »

Heh - article by Niall Ferguson for the Telegraph:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11102126/Scottish-referendum-Alone-Scotland-will-go-back-to-being-a-failed-state.html

This is fabulous stuff - Cameron as the self-abnegating statesman. Always willing to do the right thing, even at his own expense.

And the poncy "I hope I betray no confidences". I love that touch. But it reminds me of a certain David McWilliams and a Minister for Finance to whom he suggested a clever scheme, a Machiavellian masterstroke that would rescue Ireland's banks at no cost to the State...McWilliams even used exactly that term "masterstroke".

Timeo economistes et ferentes consilio.

cordially,
Scofflaw

There is a sense of truth to this. The Tories would be big winners if Scotland were to vote Yes as Labour would not win a majority for years to come.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Incredible to see people queuing outside the doors of polling stations this morning and they're saying 95% of people eligible to vote have registered to do so. Expecting at least a 90% turnout.
Regardless of the result Scotland should be very proud of how they've engaged in this debate and how many people have become politically active during it. Hope they all continue to be politically active.

Jelle1880

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

After months of kicking the independence movement, the Torygraph are taking bias to the next level.

All top 4 headlines attacking Scotland/Scottish people/'Yes' campaign:










When papers like this practically create Tory party policy, I'm baffled why anyone would want to stay part of that Union.

Can you imagine what they would hurl at the Irish if we were voting for independence?

Nr 3. isn't particularly wrong.

A Dub in Glasgo

Just back from voting, there were about 20 people in front of us in the queue. I asked for my polling card back for a memento

For such a simple thing as marking an X on a piece of paper, my hands were shaking. I will now try and stay off line for the next 2 days! Might go for a walk in Chatelherault Country Park with my family

Leroy42

My gut is telling me that No will win, and by a bigger margin than expected. I get the feeling that the polls are overestimating the Yes vote, in part due to people claiming they will vote but whenthe time comes its better the devil you know.

It would be like everybody in Ireland whi has voted FG/FF all their lives taking a leap to SF. Even though they know the problems with FG/FF they are scared of the unknown problems of SF. (Change/amend parties in line with your political views).

However, even if the No wins, there has been a clear signal sent and Cameron for one, I believe, has been irrepairably damaged. The PM of the country basically had to stay away from the debate and hand over the control to Labour.

A No vote will mean he may survice in the short term. So wahtever, the result, this will signal change

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Leroy42 wrote: »

However, even if the No wins, there has been a clear signal sent and Cameron for one, I believe, has been irrepairably damaged. The PM of the country basically had to stay away from the debate and hand over the control to Labour.

Handing the No campaign over to Labour was the smartest thing that Cameron could have done. A Tory marching up to Scotland, regardless of who it was, and telling them what to do would have pushed the Yes vote way up. He'd have been a massive idiot to wade in on it any more than he did.

BoJack Horseman

Jelle1880 wrote: »

Nr 3. isn't particularly wrong.

"Or Else!
- Or else what?
Exactly"

Would put graffiti like that past either side.
Nonsensical & could be an attempt to besmirch the 'Yes' side.

Sam Russell

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Threat of what, a world war?

The Home Rule Bill was followed by a mutiny in the Curragh Camp by the British Army based there. It was also followed by further militarisation of politics, by unionist and republicans. Its implementation was postponed until after the WW I and from released cabinet papers from the time, was never thought likely to be implemented. Overall, hardly what has happened so far in Scotlad so far.

Jelle1880

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

"Or Else!
- Or else what?
Exactly"

Would put graffiti like that past either side.
Nonsensical & could be an attempt to besmirch the 'Yes' side.

I have not seen any instances from No voters threatening or intimidating Yes voters though (correct me if I'm wrong).

FB and twitter are full of Yes votes claiming that No votes can '**** off out of Scotland' if Yes wins.

There's a nasty side to the Yes debate, contrary to what the leaders of the campaign want with regards to a fair and just independent Scotland.

n-dawg

Jelle1880 wrote: »

I have not seen any instances from No voters threatening or intimidating Yes voters though (correct me if I'm wrong).

FB and twitter are full of Yes votes claiming that No votes can '**** off out of Scotland' if Yes wins.

There's a nasty side to the Yes debate, contrary to what the leaders of the campaign want with regards to a fair and just independent Scotland.

George Sq last night, about 50 EDL/BNP/SDL trying to intimidate the yes rally that was on...

Orange Order march in Edinburgh...

tbradman

Frank Lee Midere wrote: »

Surely it's much higher.

Edit: yes it is - the Anglo/Celtic proportions are 74%.

The 9million total for English/Irish/Scots number is taken from a question on the last Aus Census. They asked a question about what Ethnicity people identified as. So I agree it seems low, but they is the number that identify themselves as being of that particular nationality/ethnicity.

Nermal

Jelle1880 wrote: »

I have not seen any instances from No voters threatening or intimidating Yes voters though (correct me if I'm wrong).

They don't have to, every organ of the establishment does it on their behalf.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

Just out of interest is there a party in Northern Ireland that wants independence and not a United Ireland?

K-9

Sam Russell wrote: »

100 years ago, the Home Rule (Ireland) bill was voted into law. It never became law. Let us hope the if Scotland does vote YES, that they do not suffer the same threat. It is possible that the UK Government might find some legal reason to go back on all their pledges.

I hope a many people in Scotland vote today, and they do with the sense of history that the day and the vote deserve.

This is a vote for the very long term, but many of the campaign slogans have dealt with very short term issues. The one item missing from the debate was the lack of commitment for follow-on referendums for, say, the ratification for the new constitution, the terms for re-joining the EU, the terms for a settlement with the UK, whether to apply for UN membership, etc.

A fantastic example to the world of open democracy. Well done Scotland.

No praise for the UK for actually granting Scotland the vote?

tbradman

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Home Rule Bill was followed by a mutiny in the Curragh Camp by the British Army based there. It was also followed by further militarisation of politics, by unionist and republicans. Its implementation was postponed until after the WW I and from released cabinet papers from the time, was never thought likely to be implemented. Overall, hardly what has happened so far in Scotlad so far.

The world has changed greatly since the 1914 Home Rule Bill. WWI, the 1916 Rising and the Anglo-Irish war were just a few of the nails in the coffin of the Home Rule Bill.

Irrespective of whether a person believes in a Yes or No vote in Scotland, it is impossible not to admire the Scottish path of a peaceful democratic process in contrast to Irelands violent path.

The outcome of this vote will be fair, legal and observed by all sides. And even a No vote will change Englands relationship with Scotland.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Jelle1880

n-dawg wrote: »

George Sq last night, about 50 EDL/BNP/SDL trying to intimidate the yes rally that was on...

Orange Order march in Edinburgh...

OO March went off peaceful without any problems.

I didn't see anything from that EDL stuff ?
Unless they were there protesting themselves without any threats or intimidation, which is not what I'm talking about.

Look at the debate with Galloway about what I mean, some nutjob in the crowd shouting him down, not giving him any chance to speak.

n-dawg

Jelle1880 wrote: »

OO March went off peaceful without any problems.

I didn't see anything from that EDL stuff ?
Unless they were there protesting themselves without any threats or intimidation, which is not what I'm talking about.

Look at the debate with Galloway about what I mean, some nutjob in the crowd shouting him down, not giving him any chance to speak.

The OO in themselves are provocative and intimidating. Last year their following crowd in Dennistoun were shouting Tims Out as they walked down Duke street! There was no trouble because the yes campaign was really keen to stay away from it.

The EDL were over by the council offices causing a bit of a rabble, police told them to go home! They were doing their usual nazi salute sh1te.

I think you sum up the Galloway thing well "some nutjob"!

Being in Glasgow for this has been amazing, and 99.9% of the people have been really peaceful and happy.

whatstherush

Jelle1880 wrote: »

I have not seen any instances from No voters threatening or intimidating Yes voters though (correct me if I'm wrong).

FB and twitter are full of Yes votes claiming that No votes can '**** off out of Scotland' if Yes wins.

There's a nasty side to the Yes debate, contrary to what the leaders of the campaign want with regards to a fair and just independent Scotland.

Heres one for ya then Jelle


Dear Scotland,

This is your BetterTogether in response to Andy Murrays tweet
http://t.co/d5cWLI69xB

A Dub in Glasgo

Had to come back in here, Jelle your attempts to smear the Yes side is laughable. I hear Ian McKenzie MP was asked by the Police to leave the vicinity of the polling station in Port Glasgow this morning. He was shouting at people going in to vote that they Vote No

There was a rally in George Sq yesterday by thousands of Yes supporters and this lot turn up



https://twitter.com/pontyphoto/status/512326137130000384/photo/1






There are a few idiots on both sides, yet you want to come on here and say the Yes side is nasty, aggressive and carrying out intimidation

I suggest you read the Police Federation statement yesterday

Sheldons Brain

alastair wrote: »

No it didn't. We had fifty years of parity with sterling (without the consent of the UK - just as Scotland could opt for - EU membership allowing), and the only real period of vulnerability was that of high inflation in the 70's, following on from the oil crisis.

One correction, Ireland did have the general agreement of the UK, as the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man have to this day.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

There's always going to be thugs and trouble makers on any side of a debate like this. The media focus on the minority because it makes for better pictures and soundbites. It's like on the 12th of July when they never report on the hundreds of Orange Order parades that pass of peacefully and instead stick their cameras in the middle of the one or two that there's always trouble at.

Jelle1880

I'm not trying to smear anyone, merely saying what I see.
I never saw those things and I stand corrected.

I did read that statement and found it pretty bad, resorting to languages as 'mindless idiots' and 'playground stuff' is not really befitting of an official statement by such an organisation.

Bluefoam

Jelle1880 wrote: »

I'm not trying to smear anyone, merely saying what I see.
I never saw those things and I stand corrected.

I did read that statement and found it pretty bad, resorting to languages as 'mindless idiots' and 'playground stuff' is not really befitting of an official statement by such an organisation.

It sounds like you just want to find negativity in everything the yes side says...