Scottish Independence yea or nay

Harry Angstrom

Esel wrote: »

"Applies to the next binding referendum on Scottish independence."

I'm pretty sure it's in running, Ladbrokes are currently betting in running at 1/50 for an overall No vote.

https://m.ladbrokes.com/ladbrokes/en/#!event_details?id=213511048

Esel

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's in running, Ladbrokes are currently betting in running at 1/50 for an overall No vote.

https://m.ladbrokes.com/ladbrokes/en/#!event_details?id=213511048

That's mad, Ted!

Looking at that, and 'assuming' that Yes loses, you could be onto a good thing by making two bets: Yes 40-45% (€200 @ 1/2) and Yes 45-50% (€100 @ 3/1).

If either of these bets win, you either break even or are up €100.

cruiserweight

Glasgow win will not be big enough for yes to claw it back, looks like a win for no. Edinburgh biggest council area left and looks to be a big enough win for no

Esel

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I'm pretty sure it's in running, Ladbrokes are currently betting in running at 1/50 for an overall No vote.

https://m.ladbrokes.com/ladbrokes/en/#!event_details?id=213511048

Esel wrote: »

That's mad, Ted!

Looking at that, and 'assuming' that Yes loses, you could be onto a good thing by making two bets: Yes 40-45% (€200 @ 1/2) and Yes 45-50% (€100 @ 3/1).

If either of these bets win, you either break even or are up €100.

cruiserweight wrote: »

Glasgow win will not be big enough for yes to claw it back, looks like a win for no. Edinburgh biggest council area left and looks to be a big enough win for no

Get you onto Ladbrokes right now, Jimmy!

Just had a thought: Ladbrokes is very like 'lad, broke'... :eek: Sit yoursel' back down.

Easy enough win for No in the end.

Markets got it spot on

Banjoxed

Winning the internet. That went well, didn't it. Didn't it? Oh wait..

Esel

rarnes1 wrote: »

Easy enough win for No in the end.

Markets got it spot on

They usually do.

We nearly had the UK of EWNI and the IRS!

No need now to send the troops in to annexe Faslane, Aberdeen and points east etc.

tbradman

Good breakdown of the overall poll numbers on the ABC news site:

abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/results/

I'm surprised that Glasgow had the lowest turnout of 75%.

Jelle1880

In the end a relatively clear victory, yet the fact Yes nearly won it means it can't just be ignored any longer.

Interesting to see what will happen now regarding the promises made by Westminster.

Esel

tbradman wrote: »

Good breakdown of the overall poll numbers on the ABC news site:

abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/results/

I'm surprised that Glasgow had the lowest turnout of 75%.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/results/

No result shown for the Highlands as they are still counting.

Interesting that the islands were definitely against. Not surprising, as if you are off-shore already but relatively happy with the status quo, why would you rock the boat?

Icepick

Good to know most Scots are rational.

A Dub in Glasgo

Gutted

Banjoxed

Maybe now the Irish Times and RTE will cop that talking to a few pals in Glasgow who have turned from Labour to Nat doesn't extrapolate across the whole of Scotland. Mark Hennessy's coverage in particular read like he was embedded with the Nats. His aul ****e about "toffs" in Edinburgh cheapened the IT for a long while to come.

Gordon

Am happy The Yes side really did a great campaign with a lot of passion and put their hearts into it. Good to see common sense prevail though, and the majority of people voting with their minds. Am really happy that such a large turnout appeared, that is feckin excellent.

BoJack Horseman

Gordon wrote: »

Am happy The Yes side really did a great campaign with a lot of passion and put their hearts into it. Good to see common sense prevail though, and the majority of people voting with their minds. Am really happy that such a large turnout appeared, that is feckin excellent.

Scotland will only prosper under their next PM, Boris, Nigel or Ed.
And with government policy practically made by the right-wing press, Scotland can't lose!

Who wouldn't want to be led by that glorious triumvirate?

La_Gordy

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Scotland will only prosper under their next PM, Boris, Nigel or Ed.
And with government policy practically made by the right-wing press, Scotland can't lose!

Who wouldn't want to be led by that glorious triumvirate?

Grim.

BoJack Horseman

La_Gordy wrote: »

Grim.

Indeed.

The 3 main parties; Con, Lab & UKIP will cut each others throats trying to prove themselves the furthest right wing to prostrate themselves before the Mail/Telegraph.

Then leave the EU, most likely with with blond bombshell Boris in charge....

Scotland had opted to take both barrels to its feet.

La_Gordy

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Indeed.

The 3 main parties; Con, Lab & UKIP will cut each others throats trying to prove themselves the furthest right wing to prostrate themselves before the Mail/Telegraph.

Then leave the EU, most likely with with blond bombshell Boris in charge....

Scotland had opted to take both barrels to its feet.

Yea, that vote is going to be horrendous. Lab and Con are going to go further right to plámás all those anti-immigration potential UKIP voters (ahm assuming the LibDems will be demolished, and rightly so). Might throw in a next war on IS which will again target the impoverished areas of Scotland for the troops. If the future of the UK looked great this would be a rational decision.

gallag

gallag wrote: »

Looking forward to waking tomorrow and seeing our Scottish brothers and sisters reaffirmed commitment to the world's most successful union. gentlemen, long live the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland! !

just awake, god bless the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. really happy, congrats to the Scottish people, I hope they get a new raft of powers and prosper under the U.K umbrella, let them take a few multinationals from Ireland, and when Wales and N.I start fracking they will have a share in Europe's biggest energy producer! What with the new nuclear power stations we won't need it, let's call one of the new aircraft carrier's HMS Scotland, sister ship to HMS Queen Elizabeth. Let's build the world finest nuclear subs and let them be the pride of not only the army of the British people but also the pride of Scotland! let's build Europe's finest high speed rail linking the north to the south! let's build on London being the financial centre of the world and the UK being the fastest growing G8 economy! The world's greatest culture, when you think of all the things the world has to be grateful to the UK for, all achieved by Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland all together!!!

The future is bright, gentle men, god save the Queen and Bless this amazing union.

BoJack Horseman

gallag wrote: »

just awake, god bless the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. really happy, congrats to the Scottish people, I hope they get a new raft of powers and prosper under the U.K umbrella, let them take a few multinationals from Ireland, and when Wales and N.I start fracking they will have a share in Europe's biggest energy producer! What with the new nuclear power stations we won't need it, let's call one of the new aircraft carrier's HMS Scotland, sister ship to HMS Queen Elizabeth. Let's build the world finest nuclear subs and let them be the pride of not only the army of the British people but also the pride of Scotland! let's build Europe's finest high speed rail linking the north to the south! let's build on London being the financial centre of the world and the UK being the fastest growing G8 economy! The world's greatest culture, when you think of all the things the world has to be grateful to the UK for, all achieved by Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland all together!!!

The future is bright, gentle men, god save the Queen and Bless this amazing union.

You can just hear "Jerusalem" wafting over the interwebz!

tipptom

When the oul wans in gods waiting room who were scared sh*tless by the storys that there would be £1.50p gone out of their pension and complan would rise in price in Asda if they voted yes arrive at their final destination then the young people of Scotland will rise again and will not be frightened at marching to their inevitable destiny within ten years with a massive YES majority.

eeepaulo

tipptom wrote: »

When the oul wans in gods waiting room who were scared sh*tless by the storys that there would be £1.50p gone out of their pension and complan would rise in price in Asda if they voted yes arrive at their final destination then the young people of Scotland will rise again and will not be frightened at marching to their inevitable destiny within ten years with a massive YES majority.

Except the currently middle age ones will suddenly become the oul wans, and realising they are now the ones who will lose out, after working all their lives to build that few quid, Its amazing how principled we are when its someone else who loses out.

tipptom

eeepaulo wrote: »

Except the currently middle age ones will suddenly become the oul wans, and realising they are now the ones who will lose out, after working all their lives to build that few quid, Its amazing how principled we are when its someone else who loses out.

Except they will be a different generation and not so easily frightened by the scare storys,fear should not be allowed triumph.

eeepaulo

tipptom wrote: »

Except they will be a different generation and not so easily frightened by the scare storys,fear should not be allowed triumph.

Empty rhetoric, they will ask the same questions, hopefully there will be any kind of plan, just anything at all.

Sam Russell

oscarBravo wrote: »

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Russell
There are as many stupid people who agree with the proposition as do not agree with it, and there are as many experts in the same position. They cancel each other out.

Sadly, it appears not.

That is based on US experience, but probably true here as well. It does not help that politicians these days fly kites to see which way the mob move and the run up front of them to lead them.

It is a sad world.

Delighted so many voted, but saddened so many voted the wrong way.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

I'm disappointed with the result but hopefully there will be huge knock on effects, I doubt Westminster can ignore the fact that almost half the population (of Scotland) is against the Union now.

Next years General Election will be interesting. Lib Dems lost nearly all their support in Scotland at the last Scottish elections on the back of them going into government with the Conservatives. Labour were hand in hand with them this time, literally in some cases as the results came in. Labour got 41 seats from Scotland in the 2010 elections, they were still the biggest party so the huge Yes vote isn't necessarily a solely SNP vote. A lot of them would have voted Labour. Will they still vote Labour?

It's still going to be very interesting going forward.

n-dawg

Its twice now since I moved here that people in the UK have voted against giving themselves more power.

I don't get politics in the UK.

djpbarry

Sam Russell wrote: »

A fantastic example to the world of open democracy. Well done Scotland.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Delighted so many voted, but saddened so many voted the wrong way.

So democracy is only fantastic when people vote the "right" way?

I'll never understand why Irish people find it so difficult to accept that Scotland doesn't really mind being British.

Harry Angstrom

There's only one thing for it now; Glasgow must declare itself an independent republic enclave ASAP. Govan will be its capital.

n-dawg

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

There's only one thing for it now; Glasgow must declare itself an independent republic enclave ASAP. Govan will be its capital.

Govan?? Come on... capital has to be Dennistoun.

Fr Tod Umptious

tbradman wrote: »

Good breakdown of the overall poll numbers on the ABC news site:

abc.net.au/news/scottish-referendum/results/

I'm surprised that Glasgow had the lowest turnout of 75%.

BBC reporter from Glasgow on BBC last night mentioned that usual turnout for general elections was 30% odd in Glasgow, so 75% was huge.

Fr Tod Umptious

n-dawg wrote: »

Its twice now since I moved here that people in the UK have voted against giving themselves more power.

I don't get politics in the UK.

Maybe they are happy with the benefits that accrue from having central government in London

Grudaire

djpbarry wrote: »

So democracy is only fantastic when people vote the "right" way?

I'll never understand why Irish people find it so difficult to accept that Scotland doesn't really mind being British.

That's an optimistic read on the results tbh.

45% of people were happy to vote for freedom in spite of massive uncertainty in:

• Currency
• EU membership
• Borders
• Jobs (Register offices moving)
• etc etc

Scotland doesn't mind being British given the massive uncertainty of the alternative. Repeat the vote with clarity on this stuff and you could easily have another outcome.

I can see how both Yes and No should be happy and unhappy. Either way UK politics will be interesting to watch over the next few years

Scofflaw

djpbarry wrote: »

So democracy is only fantastic when people vote the "right" way?

I'll never understand why Irish people find it so difficult to accept that Scotland doesn't really mind being British.

They forget, I suppose, or never knew, that many Irish people didn't mind being British - the mythologising post-Independence wrote those people off as a minority of traitors.

I admit that I'm disappointed, but not particularly surprised - there was always likely to be a slight silencing effect for No voters, and the polls haven't ever really suggested a Yes win.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Grudaire

Scofflaw wrote: »

I admit that I'm disappointed, but not particularly surprised - there was always likely to be a slight silencing effect for No voters, and the polls haven't ever really suggested a Yes win.

Had there been certainty regarding the EU, and currency It could easily been a Yes vote.

eyescreamcone

Any future votes on this issue will include Scottish voters living in other parts of the UK. No chance of independence in those circumstances - ever!

This is as close as it will ever get

gallag

n-dawg wrote: »

Its twice now since I moved here that people in the UK have voted against giving themselves more power.

I don't get politics in the UK.

If you think about your reasoning for moving to the U.K you can probably better understand why people already living in the U.K are happy to remain doing so.

Godge

jank wrote: »

Should non-nationals who are tax resident in Ireland have a vote? May as well do away with the idea of citizenship so.

UK citizens have the right to vote in all elections.

http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/moving_country/moving_to_ireland/introduction_to_the_irish_system/right_to_vote.html


"The right to vote is as follows:

Irish citizens may vote at every election and referendum;
British citizens may vote at Dáil elections, European elections and local elections;
Other European Union (EU) citizens may vote at European and local elections*
Non-EU citizens may vote at local elections only."

jank wrote: »

Also, in reality one cannot just waltz into Ireland at age 67 and claim a medical card, state pension and a host of other goodies.... it is just wrong for you to claim that. People who come to retire in Ireland need to have their own private pension or have a pension from another country to fund their retirement. This, pension welfare tourism is news to me and would like to hear some actual facts on your claims....

Yes you can, it is explicitly allowed in social welfare information:

http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Habitual-Residence-Condition-HRC-Guidelines---Supplement.aspx#sect4

"14. An Irish national has lived in the U.K. for the last 35 years. He is separated and has no ongoing contact with his family there. A charitable organisation has arranged for his return to live in Ireland close to where his 2 brothers still live. He has provided evidence of termination of rented accommodation and UK social assistance. He has now claimed non-contributory State pension.

His centre of interest is now Ireland as he has terminated his rented accommodation and social assistance in the U.K."

Here is another one:


"25. Irish national had lived in Ireland until 20 years of age when she went to UK. She returned to Ireland with her 6 year old daughter in September 2009. Family had bought a house in Ireland some years previously to facilitate this move back and opened a bank account. Her daughter attends school here.

She had worked in the UK and is actively seeking work here now.

All of her extended family lived in Ireland. She had a good job in UK for a number of years. Family have decided to move here permanently. She lives near her parents and her husband remains employed in UK. He will join her if he can secure employment here. They still have an outstanding mortgage on their house in UK. She is supported financially by her husband.

HRC satisfied"

djpbarry

Grudaire wrote: »

Scotland doesn't mind being British given the massive uncertainty of the alternative. Repeat the vote with clarity on this stuff and you could easily have another outcome.

Quite possibly, yes. But I do often encounter in Ireland the notion that Wales and Scotland, in particular, are being oppressed by the English and denied their independence. There exists this romantic notion of the poor oppressed Celts united against the evil Anglo overlords. The reality is that Welsh and Scottish attitudes to the Union are very different to the Irish attitude.

Granted, if, as you say, the benefits of independence become clearer, then that may change, particularly so if the UK were to leave the EU (which I don’t think it will). But this is the point – support for independence in Scotland is highly conditional. The nationalist fervor that existed in Ireland prior to independence does not exist in Scotland on anywhere near the same scale.

djpbarry

Scofflaw wrote: »

They forget, I suppose, or never knew, that many Irish people didn't mind being British - the mythologising post-Independence wrote those people off as a minority of traitors.

Fair point.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

djpbarry wrote: »

So democracy is only fantastic when people vote the "right" way?

I'll never understand why Irish people find it so difficult to accept that Scotland doesn't really mind being British.

Two things that struck me about this entire campaign, from both sides, was how "peaceful" it was, for want of a better word.

The two main conclusions I came to as to why are 1 - Religion kept out if it completely and 2 - it wasn't necessarily about not wanting to be British, or not in the same way as it is in Ireland/Northern Ireland.

The majority of people, on both sides, seemed to be very much about what was best for Scotland, there was nobody giving "F**k The BRITS" as their reason for voting Yes.

I think these reasons are also why there were so many people getting actively involved, they weren't aligning themselves necessarily to any political party, it was about Scotland.

It's ridiculous in Ireland that we can't do anything politically without some religious group sticking their oar in and telling us what God would want from us. We can't separate common sense from historical hurt and archaic religious beliefs.

Lemming

Grudaire wrote: »

Had there been certainty regarding the EU, and currency It could easily been a Yes vote.

I believe the relevant expression is; "mebe ayes, mebe naws".

It could also have been a resounding No vote. You are making assumptions that the EU, rUK, NATO, and financial markets would have given everything exactly as Salmond demanded it.

What strikes me most is that a) Aberdeen said "no", and that b) Glasgow said "yes". The oil capital of the region voted against, and the one place most dependent (i.e. because of the Clyde) on the Union said yes.

Larbre34

n-dawg wrote: »

Its twice now since I moved here that people in the UK have voted against giving themselves more power.

I don't get politics in the UK.

Maybe they take a look around in their own communities and think those they see are not to be trusted to do well with real power.

topper75

Scofflaw wrote: »

... many Irish people didn't mind being British - the mythologising post-Independence wrote those people off as a minority of traitors.

They weren't a minority - you're right.

But then, enter the Auxies/Tans, who saw to it that they soon were.

That history is not re-writable unless you destroy all the headstones while you are at it!

micosoft

As a number of commentators have not pointed out, the actual impact on this referendum will not so much be around Scottish devolution, but English devolution. Now that everybody is paying attention it will be interesting to see how the changes introduced will impact the England and English nationalism (Yes, it does exist). The West Lothian question as well as the Barnett formula will be part of this. It's not just a one way devolving of power - if anything I think an objective observer would see that English Voters are the least represented in the current structure. As this plays out over the coming years we can see significant impact on Northern Ireland as well as Westminster may have weaker influence there.

I think there might be an opportunity here to recast Ireland's relationship with the members of the UK. The Government has been rightly circumspect about the Scottish vote, but it would be no harm to start formulating a strategy for engaging with our nearest neighbours. And we need to focus on the real danger in Northern Ireland that the training wheels come off to soon.

Grudaire

Lemming wrote: »

I believe the relevant expression is; "mebe ayes, mebe naws".

It could also have been a resounding No vote. You are making assumptions that the EU, rUK, NATO, and financial markets would have given everything exactly as Salmond demanded it.

In terms of the vote that was held, the uncertainty factor was often quoted as the key factor in peoples decisions.

I don't think that more certainty would have resulted in more No votes (a reasonable assumption surely!?)

djpbarry

TICKLE_ME_ELMO wrote: »

The majority of people, on both sides, seemed to be very much about what was best for Scotland, there was nobody giving "F**k The BRITS" as their reason for voting Yes.

Generally speaking, I agree. But let’s not pretend that there wasn’t an element of “if you love England so much, why don’t you live there” directed at ‘No’ voters.

djpbarry

Grudaire wrote: »

I don't think that more certainty would have resulted in more No votes (a reasonable assumption surely!?)

What if it was relatively certain that the average Scot would be significantly worse off in financial terms in an independent Scotland?

Lemming

Grudaire wrote: »

In terms of the vote that was held, the uncertainty factor was often quoted as the key factor in peoples decisions.

I don't think that more certainty would have resulted in more No votes (a reasonable assumption surely!?)

Only a reasonable assumption assuming (there ye go) that the clarity backed up Salmond's campaign. An unreasonable assumption (there ye go) if the clarity went against Salmond's campaign.

Sam Russell

djpbarry wrote: »

So democracy is only fantastic when people vote the "right" way?

I'll never understand why Irish people find it so difficult to accept that Scotland doesn't really mind being British.

I am saddened by the fact that I would have prefered the result to go the other way, but that is personal. Democracy won out, both by the debate and the popular engagement, and by the turnout - that is what I thought fantastic.

I am also saddened by the foreign interference in the debate from the Spannish PM, the soon to be replaced President Borossa, the two Clintons, Obama plus many more. It was also anti-democratic that senior Government sponsored people interfered such as the Govenor of the Bank of England, who is a Civil Servant (effectively), and the Government owned banks making political statements about moving their brass plates.

However, all over till the next time.