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Scottish Independence yea or nay

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Comments

  • #1602
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    Any amount of political events could precipitate a referendum. You simply don't know when the next one will be.
    The only time a referendum can be called is with permission of Parliament. That won't happen any time soon, likely within the next twenty years, if not fifty. The possibility of UK exit from the European Union was an issue during the last referendum and people still voted in favor of the union.


  • #1603
    Happyman42
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The only time a referendum can be called is with permission of Parliament. That won't happen any time soon, likely within the next twenty years, if not fifty.

    You are guessing. You don't know.


  • #1604
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    But that doesn't mean Scotland will leave the Union, it can't without a referendum and we won't have another referendum for twenty years at least.

    That may be so...., if theres no EU referendum. But if there is and there is a divergence in voting patterns as hinted at by Yougov, I think there will be another one alot sooner than you suggest.


  • #1605
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    You are guessing. You don't know.
    No one knows the future, you might as well say this conversation is pointless because the world might be destroyed before the EU referendum. You don't know, saying otherwise is only guessing.

    What we can do is use our brains to logically conclude what will likely happen and another referendum is not on the horizon in the foreseeable future. The UK will leave or stay in the EU as a block, there is no legal possibility for any other result.
    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    That may be so...., if theres no EU referendum. But if there is and there is a divergence in voting patterns as hinted at by Yougov, I think there will be another one alot sooner than you suggest.
    Who will authorize it? Because Parliament won't.


  • #1606
    Happyman42
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    No one knows the future,

    Precisely. So stop guessing?


  • #1607
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The UK will leave or stay in the EU as a block, there is no legal possibility for any other result.

    You dont know what will happen, although the GE campaign next year will possibly give the first indications of scenarios.
    Who will authorize it? Because Parliament won't.

    If England votes overwhelmingly to leave the EU, but the Scots vote to stay in, you think the English Tories won't cut them loose in order to get out as smoothly as possible?


  • #1608
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    Precisely. So stop guessing?

    Read the rest of my post. Then we'll talk.
    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    You dont know what will happen, although the GE campaign next year will possibly give the first indications of scenarios.
    The "you don't know" argument again. You don't know the world won't be destroyed before the European referendum, no one can see the future, we base our predictions on what we know from the past and present.
    If England votes overwhelmingly to leave the EU, but the Scots vote to stay in, you think the English Tories won't cut them loose in order to get out as smoothly as possible?
    Absolutely they won't, the Tories are 100% pro Union.


  • #1609
    Happyman42
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Read the rest of my post. Then we'll talk.

    I did, and I logically conclude you are guessing and anything is possible in a volatile political situation.
    The Scottish Independence question is not settled and as I said earlier in the thread, what you are actually watching is the start of the break up of the UK.


  • #1610
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    I did, and I logically conclude you are guessing and anything is possible in a volatile political situation.
    The Scottish Independence question is not settled and as I said earlier in the thread, what you are actually watching is the start of the break up of the UK.
    Yeah except it is settled. Now you're actually guilty of the same fallacy you falsely accused me of.

    I get a strong hint of sour grapes from you. A referendum can only be called by Parliament and they won't call one for the foreseeable future. Twenty, if not fifty years and even then only when they're sure they'll win. The EU referendum doesn't change this.


  • #1611
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The "you don't know" argument again.

    One sentence, but the very next starts with:
    You don't know...

    Are you critical or not of this line of argument?
    Absolutely they won't, the Tories are 100% pro Union.

    Really? They'll preserve the Union and stay in the EU to mollify the Scots, if the Scots vote to stay in?


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  • #1612
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    One sentence, but the very next starts with:



    Are you critical or not of this line of argument?
    Yes. Obviously.


    Really? They'll preserve the Union and stay in the EU to mollify the Scots, if the Scots vote to stay in?
    Nope. If the UK votes to leave the EU they will leave the EU as a single entity. The SNP may disagree but that's democracy. One man one vote.


  • #1613
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    Yes. Obviously.

    Nice one. 'The world may be destroyed' before an EU referendum is held, probably 2017 if Cameron gets back into government, but you've no problem stating there won't be a independence referendum for another '20 or 50 years'.
    Nope. If the UK votes to leave the EU they will leave the EU as a single entity. The SNP may disagree but that's democracy. One man one vote.

    I'm puzzled on your continued confidence on this, since you also claim that 'no one can see the future'.


  • #1614
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    Nice one. 'The world may be destroyed' before an EU referendum is held, probably 2017 if Cameron gets back into government, but you've no problem stating there won't be a independence referendum for another '20 or 50 years'.
    My point is this "you don't know" argument is nonsense. No one knows the future, we make predictions based on what we know from the past and present.


    I'm puzzled on your continued confidence on this, since you also claim that 'no one can see the future'.
    You asked me a question. I answered it.


  • #1615
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    My point is this "you don't know" argument is nonsense. No one knows the future, we make predictions based on what we know from the past and present.

    If thats the case, the world will keep spinning for a while yet then?
    You asked me a question. I answered it.

    A bit of substance as to why you think the UK will leave the EU as one big happy family would be nice.


  • #1616
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    If thats the case, the world will keep spinning for a while yet then?
    More likely than not.
    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    A bit of substance as to why you think the UK will leave the EU as one big happy family would be nice.
    Because a referendum can only be called by Parliament and they won't call one for the foreseeable future. Twenty, if not fifty years and even then only when they're sure they'll win. The EU referendum doesn't change this.


  • #1617
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The EU referendum doesn't change this.

    It does depending on how next years GE turns out. If this STV Ipsos Mori poll anyway reflects the Scottish GE result, the SNP holds the balance of power at Westminster. All bets are off I think if Cameron gets back into power and the EU referendum goes ahead.

    Plus, according to this poll, 66% of Scots want another referendum within 10 years, with 58% wanting one within five years.


  • #1618
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    It does depending on how next years GE turns out. If this STV Ipsos Mori poll anyway reflects the Scottish GE result, the SNP holds the balance of power at Westminster. All bets are off I think if Cameron gets back into power and the EU referendum goes ahead.

    Plus, according to this poll, 66% of Scots want another referendum within 10 years, with 58% wanting one within five years.
    It's highly unlikely the SNP will hold the balance of power in Westminster. Even if they did al the other parties are ideologically opposed to Scottish breaking away. The EU referendum doesn't change this or make another vote more likely.


  • #1619
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Iwasfrozen wrote: »
    The EU referendum doesn't change this or make another vote more likely.

    An interesting article from the FT in October 2013. The correspondent appears to be guessing about the future (up to now anyway) with a fair degree of accuracy it seems.
    The second mistake is to assume that a No to independence in the 2014 referendum would be the last word. It would be followed by an argument about the transfer of more powers and then, possibly, by a plebiscite on the EU. Assuming the SNP had won a decent share of the vote, eventual independence would remain an option.....

    .....Were England to cut itself off from its own continent the intelligent response of Scots would be to swap union with a diminished England for independent membership of the EU. There lies an irony. Eurosceptics say they are marching in defence of a sovereign UK. Nothing could be more calculated to shatter the union of England with Scotland than Britain’s withdrawal from Europe.


  • #1620
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The idea that Scotland would leave the union due to the outcome of the EU referendum is stupid.

    All that is happening here is that the SNP are looking for a new angel.

    Once they became the main party in Scotland they had to hold the referendum, that was part of their mandate.
    Now that it's over and they lost they need something else to make them relevant.
    And flying this EU flag seems to be it.

    Anyone who thinks something is going to come of it is grasping at straws


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  • #1621
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    Really? They'll preserve the Union and stay in the EU to mollify the Scots, if the Scots vote to stay in?

    You seem to forget that the majority of Scots wish to remain in the Union.

    The Tories have to respect that.

    They can't just ditch them.


  • #1622
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    You seem to forget that the majority of Scots wish to remain in the Union.

    The Tories have to respect that.

    They can't just ditch them.

    Not forgetting anything, if the EU referendum aspect comes into play.


  • #1623
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    Not forgetting anything, if the EU referendum aspect comes into play.

    That post makes no sense.

    Explain yourself


  • #1624
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    That post makes no sense.

    Explain yourself

    Explain this in the light of the article I linked to:
    The idea that Scotland would leave the union due to the outcome of the EU referendum is stupid.

    What's stupid?


  • #1625
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    Explain this in the light of the article I linked to:



    What's stupid?

    OK lets start with the basics.

    1. Scotland decided to stay in the UK in September by virtue of the electorate voting NO in greater numbers than voting YES in a independence referendum

    2. The fact that (1) above happened means that and further referendums involving the UK will include Scotland and that the votes cast in Scotland will be included in, and counted as, part of the overall votes cast in the UK.

    The idea that they would somehow be dealt with separately in a EU referendum is whats stupid.

    It's a bit like Donegal in the republic not introducing a constitutional change because they voted against it (I used Donegal as they seem to go against the rest of the country in every referendum )


  • #1626
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    OK lets start with the basics.

    1. Scotland decided to stay in the UK in September by virtue of the electorate voting NO in greater numbers than voting YES in a independence referendum

    Basic indeed. I'm aware of the result thanks.
    2. The fact that (1) above happened means that and further referendums involving the UK will include Scotland and that the votes cast in Scotland will be included in, and counted as, part of the overall votes cast in the UK.

    Even taking the above into account, Paul Cairney of Stirling University said:
    a referendum in which Britain as a whole voted to leave the EU while Scots voted to stay in would trigger a new UK constitutional crisis and demands for a new Scottish independence referendum.
    The idea that they would somehow be dealt with separately in a EU referendum is whats stupid.

    It's far from stupid.
    It's a bit like Donegal in the republic not introducing a constitutional change because they voted against it (I used Donegal as they seem to go against the rest of the country in every referendum )

    It's not.


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  • #1627
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,294 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    OK lets start with the basics.

    1. Scotland decided to stay in the UK in September by virtue of the electorate voting NO in greater numbers than voting YES in a independence referendum

    2. The fact that (1) above happened means that and further referendums involving the UK will include Scotland and that the votes cast in Scotland will be included in, and counted as, part of the overall votes cast in the UK.

    The idea that they would somehow be dealt with separately in a EU referendum is whats stupid.

    It's a bit like Donegal in the republic not introducing a constitutional change because they voted against it (I used Donegal as they seem to go against the rest of the country in every referendum )

    What is stupid is the assumption from some of the posters here that as Scotland voted No, everything will be hunky dory going forward no matter what. If England votes take the UK out of Europe and the majority of people in Scotland voted to stay, then the dynamics have changed and there will be a constitutional crisis in the UK

    You have misjudged what is happening in Scotland at the moment


  • #1628
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    RED L4 0TH wrote: »
    Basic indeed. I'm aware of the result thanks.



    Even taking the above into account, Paul Cairney of Stirling University said:





    It's far from stupid.



    It's not.

    So the opinion of a university academic is that it would "cause a constitutional crisis and demands for a new Scottish independence referendum."

    That's all well and good but another opinion would be that a referendum was held and failed in September 2014 and that no further referendum would be required.

    As I said it's the SNP looking for a new angle now that the referendum has failed for this generation.


  • #1629
    RED L4 0TH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 655 ✭✭✭RED L4 0TH


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    but another opinion would be that a referendum was held and failed in September 2014 and that no further referendum would be required.

    As I said it's the SNP looking for a new angle now that the referendum has failed for this generation.

    He's not talking about an independence referendum in isolation, but with reference to an EU referendum, should an EU referendum be held. It will be on the agenda again far sooner than in a generation in this case I think.


  • #1630
    Fr Tod Umptious
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    What is stupid is the assumption from some of the posters here that as Scotland voted No, everything will be hunky dory going forward no matter what. If England votes take the UK out of Europe and the majority of people in Scotland voted to stay, then the dynamics have changed and there will be a constitutional crisis in the UK

    You have misjudged what is happening in Scotland at the moment


    Ohh, disappointed with the will of the majority are we ?

    Sorry that's just the way it goes.


  • #1631
    ardmacha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    If the UK was proper union, it would not leave the EU unless a majority in 3 of its 4 parts agreed to it. That Cameron would oppose such a thing illustrates the limits of the big talk before the Scottish referendum. The EU referendum could indeed cause a constitutional crisis.


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  • #1632
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,294 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »
    Ohh, disappointed with the will of the majority are we ?

    Sorry that's just the way it goes.

    The unionist parties said the UK was a union of equal partners between Scotland and England. It appears that you have your head in the sand about that


  • #1633
    Fratton Fred
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26,567 ✭✭✭✭Fratton Fred


    ardmacha wrote: »
    If the UK was proper union, it would not leave the EU unless a majority in 3 of its 4 parts agreed to it. That Cameron would oppose such a thing illustrates the limits of the big talk before the Scottish referendum. The EU referendum could indeed cause a constitutional crisis.

    So ten million people get to boss around the other fifty?

    That doesn't sound particularly fair.


  • #1634
    ardmacha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    Fratton Fred wrote: »
    So ten million people get to boss around the other fifty?

    That doesn't sound particularly fair.

    It is the nature of a union though that al parties have an equal voice.


  • #1635
    Iwasfrozen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,250 ✭✭✭✭Iwasfrozen


    ardmacha wrote: »
    It is the nature of a union though that al parties have an equal voice.
    No that's the nature of a federation. If you want a US style constitution, where all states get an equal say in government but separatism is illegal then fine with me but you can't have it both ways.


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