The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

rickdangerouss

Sparks wrote: »

What was the final OPI, out of interest, or did they not report that before the site went to it's "Give us a minute, we're doing the final numbers" page?

I understand that the OPI results will be released some point this week, I was just thinking the same thing myself.


BTW, Most of the good\weak PV disucssions is around FI time frames, but the models are consistent, that's a great start.

maquiladora

Sparks wrote: »

What was the final OPI, out of interest, or did they not report that before the site went to it's "Give us a minute, we're doing the final numbers" page?

The last number was -2.1 so I'm guessing that will be the final number but I don't know for sure. I think they are releasing their forecast on Friday.

BLIZZARD7

Okay so a disturbed Polar Vortex is relatively unusual for November and so is worth watching to see if it develops properly and if it does where it sets up. If its very strong as it was last November and winter it means all the cold air gets bottled up over the Arctic and maked it very hard for a cold spell to develop for Ireland.

Last year ~



This year~





In simplistic terms when it is split up in different chunks and absent from Greenland then this raises the chances of northern blocking developing which if sets up in certain positions can deliver cold weather+snow to Ireland..


Dan

rickdangerouss

@Maquiladora

Do you have an point of view, regarding why allot of the LRF'S have gone for a mild to normal range temperature\weather this winter for Ireland, Allot of the fringe KPI'S have gone for the opposite way, like snow cover of russia, weak PV, weak zonal winds, allot of sea ice, low solar activity, OPI etc..

Just asking if you would like to share.

maquiladora

rickdangerouss wrote: »

@Maquiladora

Do you have an point of view, regarding why allot of the LRF'S have gone for a mild to normal range temperature\weather this winter for Ireland, Allot of the fringe KPI'S have gone for the opposite way, like snow cover of russia, weak PV, weak zonal winds, allot of sea ice, low solar activity, OPI etc..

Just asking if you would like to share.

I haven't really read any long range forecasts to be honest. Last time I heard, most if not all of the seasonal computer models were predicting a mild winter for these parts so maybe it's based on that?

arctictree

Some cold charts appearing on the latest GFS. Might be a bit early for snow but who knows?!

hatrickpatrick

Looking at some archives from November 2010 on Meteociel, the polar vortex didn't start showing those signs of disruption until much later in the month. Unfortunately the corresponding charts from the other major snow event of late December '09 / January '10 are missing, so can't make any comparisons there, but these are all good signs, even if not actual harbringers just yet.

rickdangerouss

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Looking at some archives from November 2010 on Meteociel, the polar vortex didn't start showing those signs of disruption until much later in the month. Unfortunately the corresponding charts from the other major snow event of late December '09 / January '10 are missing, so can't make any comparisons there, but these are all good signs, even if not actual harbringers just yet.

I found this over on the Netweather site. I think it helps.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

Mars Bar

HighLine wrote: »

Had a look through the following December 2010 thread (yes, I was bored )recently... made for fairly epic reading. Over a million views and guys talking feet of snow rather than inches!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056120994

I'm on page 28 and it is still the 16th of December, the day the thread was started. Madness! I hope we get something like that again!

I'm set up on 40 posts per page too!

ninebeanrows

Well, this could be interesting.....

Good longer term trends. PV not being given much of a chance on latest runs.

BLIZZARD7

No Pv forming, likely a very low OPI and a AO index that looks like its about to nosedive = Brilliant model watching and very encouraging signs for the coming winter if you like cold weather. A lot of similarities to 09/10 this year already. The 12z Gem chart at day 10 was showing an unbelievable high pressure anomaly to our north over Greenland.. Im expecting more charts like that to start appearing in FI from now on...

Dan

maquiladora

Well now...

Larbre34

When it appears for another 3 days I'll raise an eyebrow.

How about reviving the F.I. Charts thread for this Winter? Or include in the title of this one?

flynny50

Larbre34 wrote: »

When it appears for another 3 days I'll raise an eyebrow.

What does it predict exactly!?

Lumi

Larbre34 wrote: »

How about reviving the F.I. Charts thread for this Winter? Or include in the title of this one?

We have a winter 2014/15 chart thread but no one's posting in it ...

maquiladora

Lumi wrote: »

We have a winter 2014/15 chart thread but no one's posting in it ...

It's still autumn. :P

Lumi

maquiladora wrote: »

It's still autumn. :P

So it is - thread duly edited:D

What's this Autumn chart doing in the 'Snow this Winter' thread btw :P

maquiladora

Lumi wrote: »

So it is - thread duly edited:D

What's this Autumn chart doing in the 'Snow this Winter' thread btw :P

:P:P:P

RobertKK

maquiladora wrote: »

It's still autumn. :P

November, the first month of winter...

maquiladora

RobertKK wrote: »

November, the first month of winter...

December, January, February is the meteorological winter.

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

It's still autumn. :P

.... and will be for another three and a half weeks!
Some of the ramping on Netweather at the moment is farcical.
Looking out the window now I can see an ash tree still as green as it was in July and the dahlias still blooming, I'm not even thinking about winter at the moment.

RobertKK

maquiladora wrote: »

December, January, February is the meteorological winter.

Well for me winter is near 4 months from an agricultural viewpoint.

Creative Juices

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Some of the ramping on Netweather at the moment is farcical. Looking out the window now I can see an ash tree still as green as it was in July and the dahlias still blooming, I'm not even thinking about winter at the moment.

Just FYI for next Spring - "If you can see thru’ the ash tree that you can still sow spuds"

Rosie Rant

I wore gloves when I went out to the shops today. There's definitely snow in that air .

lapua20grain

accuweather not giving us too much snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

rickdangerouss

lapua20grain wrote: »

accuweather not giving us too much snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

Their weather forecast is more wrong than below.




*Only because it does not provide my snow fix for winter*

jeanrose770

Then get those chains on your tires!
Im expecting a lot of sunshine this winter, snowing those sunbeams.
You know what they say, Location Location Location.

Lucreto

lapua20grain wrote: »

accuweather not giving us too much snow http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

BBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO:mad:

I was looking at last year hoping they were miles off

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

They were not:(

Clonmel1000

Mild weather stretching into next week.....

snowstorm445

The PV continues to be fragmented according to the most recent model outputs, but posters should bear in mind that this doesn't mean any severe cold is guaranteed to come our way anytime soon. The current outlook appears to be fairly normal weather for this part of the world for the foreseeable future, indeed we shouldn't expect any exceptionally cold weather until late November/December at the earliest.

Who would want cold weather this early anyway! Come the end of December onwards, however, then we would be in for a treat!

Its Only Ray Parlour

It was 10*C this afternoon and I was slightly sweating in that sunshine when I went for a walk. I would be worried about the snow melting if the temperatures weren't low enough.

snowstorm445

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Mild weather stretching into next week.....

You can literally hear the tedium oozing from this post.

MidMan25

Lucreto wrote: »

BBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO:mad:

I was looking at last year hoping they were miles off

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-forecast-warmer/19131940

They were not:(

Both forecasts are fairly nondescript

Wouldn't read much into them.

xXxkorixXx

Your right MidMan25 nobody knows what going to happen.

Frank Lee Midere

I'm putting the gloves away.

elecktras weather bomb

Winter has not even got going yet regardless of what may come and go. people that put the dampners on winter before its even started first week in November fair play to you for being so well educated. I for one am having a great time watching all the models and learning curves that go with it and the thrill of the chase, so anyone posting winter is over is very daunting and confusing for a newbie like me.
there is a trend there for colder...so you may need your gloves yet regardless of whether it brings a flake or not. try not get caught up on things till they are even coming into the reliable time frame that's what I have learnt being a lurker.

jamo2oo9

Keith Barry predicts that we will have the heaviest snowfall in Ireland in history.


That's good enough for me lads :P

maquiladora

I thought the Keith Barry stuff was a Boards joke until I looked at facebook...

wexie

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Keith Barry predicts that we will have the heaviest snowfall in Ireland in history.


That's good enough for me lads :P

If that's going to come true we're going to want to get preparing, if it's worse than the Great Frost of 1740 we'll be in trouble.

Lucreto

I saw in in the Irish Mirror page this morning

The poll at the bottom defies my opinion of humanity.

Will Keith Barry's predictions come true?

Yes 72% - 28% No.

Fiskar

Thresholds being set for school closures due to snow

http://bringmethenews.com/2014/11/05/cold-logic-st-paul-schools-set-threshold-for-winter-closures/

In Minnesota !

davidsr20

Anyone explain this cause mt doesn't think so as far as I'm aware.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html

HighLine

davidsr20 wrote: »

Anyone explain this cause mt doesn't think so as far as I'm aware.

http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Ireland-set-for-worst-winter-in-100-years-say-experts.html

No one can explain it because no one knows what the weather will be like in a few months. Long range forecasting is akin to looking into a crystal ball.

Blizzard 2010

HighLine wrote: »

No one can explain it because no one knows what the weather will be like in a few months. Long range forecasting is akin to looking into a crystal ball.

Courtesy of Mr Madden. He could be right

snowstorm445

Some seriously cold synoptics showing up on the GFS parallel run at the moment. Major blocking to our north, cold pool filtering down over Europe.

Its FI of course and will probably be gone by morning but obviously the signs are positive across the board atm, patience is required though. It could be several weeks before any of this materialises. Lots of potential further down the line.

maquiladora

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Some seriously cold synoptics showing up on the GFS parallel run at the moment. Major blocking to our north, cold pool filtering down over Europe.

Its FI of course and will probably be gone by morning but obviously the signs are positive across the board atm, patience is required though. It could be several weeks before any of this materialises. Lots of potential further down the line.

A long way off but a weakening/splitting of the polar vortex has been on the cards for the past few days now so I wouldn't be surprised if it actually happened. The thing to remember is that when the cold air spreads down to the mid-latitudes, it doesn't happen evenly, some areas get cold, some areas don't. Ireland is a very small place so even if the polar vortex gets nuked from orbit, those lobes could still end up spreading out to North America or central Eurasia etc. and we have to be lucky to be in the right spot so that the cold air heads our direction, as happened in late Nov '10. But we can very easily end up in the "wrong" place.

ninebeanrows

I think people must play the long game at the moment, the synoptics unfolding are actually beautiful, the polar vortex is struggling and is being broken into 3 or 4 segments. Comparing the NH profile from this year to last is telling. Whether Ireland and the UK manage to get a direct, deep and prolonged Arctic outbreak is uncertain. But at this early stage I would be confident that we will get a sig. cold spell at some stage.

If this year does see exceptional cold across mid-latitudes it will be the year that changes future winter forecasting forever. The OPI and snow indices have not been tested enough to receive recognition from Scientists but this year would be a milestone where we have a tangible predictor of conditions in the coming 2-3 months.

Interesting times ahead.

Larbre34

At the other end of the spectrum, Keith Barry had a series of premonitions on Wednesday night.

Among them, "Ireland will have the heaviest snowfall in history this Christmas."

He is flagging his foretelling of the Buncefield Oil Terminal explosion to show his credentials.

By "heaviest snowfall in history", I presumes he means Irish history, or we are looking at 11 metres (34 ft) of snow for Crimbo, which may just cure the snowbunnies for good

dave1982

I say Keith had some "snow" himself

wexie

Larbre34 wrote: »

I presumes he means Irish history, or we are looking at 11 metres (34 ft) of snow for Crimbo,

I think that could prove to be 'somewhat' problematic