The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

BLIZZARD7

The 18z gfs and parallel runs are a nice upgrade on the 12z's. Proper heights over Greenland with a completely split vortex... This will lead to a repeating pattern.

Charts are becoming more and more Nov/Dec 2010 esque.. just 2 weeks or so earlier this time. While I dont think we should get excited yet I am very much liking the output we are seeing from the models. The stratosphere is showing wave 1 and possibly wave 2 activity coming soon.. Where this wave 2 activity happens is going to dictate our weather pattern for the end of November into December. This is all against good background signals for the rest of the winter. Things are looking good... Model watching is going to be very interesting over the next few days-weeks I feel.



Dan

Adrian J Lynch

I really hope there is going to be snow

Redsunset

Adrian J Lynch wrote: »

I really hope there is going to be snow

I just love this post lol.

If nothing else, for the the moment the current synoptics being dished out are great entertainment.

snaps

What I've noticed is that the cold is always there at the end of the runs and deep into fi. A week agao the cold was pushing into Europe on and around the 16/17 November. Now its showing 23/24 November. As each day passes it gets pushed back a day too.

amdgilmore

Seems like all the impartial long range forecasts (ie not drawn up by snow-fans or attention seekers like exacta) are showing relatively mild temperatures right up to Christmas eve. Highs of 9 with lows of 2-4.

Yes I'm aware of the unreliability of LRFs from the major weather providers. But historically they have been more accurate than the predictions in this thread.

Loughc

So far this morning on my facebook timeline I've seen an article warning we're gonna be hit by the tail end of a massive American snowstorm and I've seen one saying we'll be hit by the tail end of a massive Russian snowstorm.

I just want to shake they people who write these and who share them. Stop getting our hopes up with made up ****e that you hope will sell a few papers for you!!

Speak Now

The tail end of a massive American snowstorm LOL! Maybe in the day after tomorrow!!!!

snaps

And the uk met office has said the uk is going to have an above average mild, wet and windy early part of winter with the Atlantic influence very strong. Was on sky news this morning.

maquiladora

snaps wrote: »

And the uk met office has said the uk is going to have an above average mild, wet and windy early part of winter with the Atlantic influence very strong. Was on sky news this morning.

Yes, its what their long range models have been showing. But in fairness those models are wrong about as often as they are right. Almost irrelevant really.

snaps

But in saying that, here in Eastern Europe, we are having very similar weather patterns as last year. Very dry and warm Autumn, some days still near 20c. No rain at all. Also October was very cold at night (Like last year), followed by a very warm November, again like last year.

Scandinavia though is having a complete contrast from last year as its been very cold and snowy (Especially in the north and east) since mid October.

My friends in Lapland didn't see snow last year until January. This year they've had laying snow since 2nd week October.

icesnowfrost

Fb is really gone nuts this morning with beast from the east. And ukmo is gone with mild muck. The tabloids are getting worse every year with this Long range crap.
Although the signs are looking a lot better then they did last year.
Anyone who no who rays weather page(on fb) is and the credibility of it

Loughc

It's looking likely it'll be a windy wet winter. I HATE that type of winter, give me the dry, cold weather anyday!

Darwin

Some interesting posts by Matt Hugo on netweather here in relation to current warmings in the Stratosphere and the potential for cold later in December:
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-15

Also the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index are released today which should make for interesting reading too.

BLIZZARD7

Loughc wrote: »

It's looking likely it'll be a windy wet winter. I HATE that type of winter, give me the dry, cold weather anyday!

I wouldnt say likely. Possible yes, not likely given where we are now though. Its just as likely to be cold and dry.




Dan

Loughc

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I wouldnt say likely. Possible yes, not likely given where we are now though. Its just as likely to be cold and dry.




Dan

I'm just basing it going off for the forcast for the next week. I would hug you if we get nice cold and dry weather for the majority of the remaining of the Winter period!

YouTookMyName

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

Loughc

Loughc wrote: »

So far this morning on my facebook timeline I've seen an article warning we're gonna be hit by the tail end of a massive American snowstorm and I've seen one saying we'll be hit by the tail end of a massive Russian snowstorm.

I just want to shake they people who write these and who share them. Stop getting our hopes up with made up ****e that you hope will sell a few papers for you!!

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

Yep this is one of the crapstorms I was talking about earlier..... Le sigh... it's the people who share the link on FB with the caption be safe out there hunzos xoxox deserve to be shot.....

Clonmel1000

YouTookMyName wrote: »

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-beast-east-way-4601758

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

icesnowfrost

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

U do realise this is a snow/cold winter dedicated page

wexie

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps.

You can give a definite weather forecast for the next 10 days?

Pretty impressive

hotwhiskey

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

do the UK met office forecast 3 months in advance and of so are they actually saying that there will be snow? I know that this won't be popular here but to the posters who earlier were wishing for this kind of weather seriously WTF? What we can say for definite is that the next 7-10 days are going to bring wet windy and average November temps. Beyond that is anyoned guess but given Irelands location and influences climate wise I'd be very sceptical of anything approaching even the winter 2009/10 levels of cold. That's not to say we won't get some cold weather it just won't be what we have only got 3 or 4 times in living memory...

Aa here by the end of the month people will be posting that's it winter's over, Take the UK long range forecast with a pinch of salt. Its been so far wrong some years if I remember last year it was going to be axed as the media give them such a hard time.

Look the data this year whats happening around the pole is encouraging. I for one would like to see any cold spell for late December into January. As a young mind on a old body I have gone through many a bad winter 2010 was epic as was 63 I think for cold wise. But 82' for me was the worst just the hardship to get anywhere with the depth of snow and drifting.

pauldry

think this Winter will be the one that brought everything!

I think there will be some very wet and windy episodes

There will also be some drier periods

There will be cold spells also and they will most likely bring snow, however I dont think long term freezes are likely ..... yet, maybe as Winter goes on.

November looks quite mobile with the jet stream pushing to our South at times but the High hasnt established itself as a blocking high yet so thats the reason I think a long term cold spell is unlikely

KingdomRushed

I'm relatively optimistic that there is a good chance of cold and maybe snow this winter. I haven't seen anything yet that hasn't been encouraging. In terms of the model output may I suggest looking at the hemispheric profile rather than just Europe. There is a very disturbed looking polar vortex on show at the moment. This suggests to me that there will be very many a twist and turn in the coming weeks. Even the tame easterly that is being progged in a few days time. Won't deliver at this time of year, for cold and snow, but as a taster of what may be down the line, well, oooof, bring it on my son.

mark26ireland

YouTookMyName wrote:

Ridiculous article in today's mirrior. Who's gets paid to write this scaremongering crap.

same crack as last year. we were supposed to be covered in snow and all this crap! we get heavy snow once every ten or so years. it was a fluke a few years back where we got it twice in a row

red_bairn

Darwin wrote:

Also the forecast based on the OPI and SAI index are released today which should make for interesting reading too.

At what time?

Loughc

mark26ireland wrote: »

same crack as last year. we were supposed to be covered in snow and all this crap! we get heavy snow once every ten or so years. it was a fluke a few years back where we got it twice in a row

Crushing blow to hear but very true.

fits

snaps wrote: »

Scandinavia though is having a complete contrast from last year as its been very cold and snowy (Especially in the north and east) since mid October.

My friends in Lapland didn't see snow last year until January. This year they've had laying snow since 2nd week October.

There was snow last October, November it just melted again. Last winter was horrible. I don't like snow, but it reflects light and makes the short days bearable. Also NO SKIING. Blech, I hope its not like that again this winter or I will go stir crazy.

This winter saw first snowfall on september 23rd when trees were still in full leaf. that was weird. There have been three or four snowfalls but mild in between. its 5 degrees here today. (Finland- 400 km north east of helsinki)

Metmaster

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

HighLine

Metmaster wrote: »

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

Any feelings about the lotto numbers come February?

snowstorm445

Metmaster wrote: »

Im starting to feel as if we wont have any snow this year:(.

That's quite a bold prediction to make considering its not even the middle of November.

amdgilmore

Predicting that we won't get something that we almost never get is not what I would call a bold prediction.

The odds are always stacked in favour of little or no snow in this country (leaving aside areas of high elevation).

space2ground1

I remember thinking last year that we really should be loading the predictions with a weighting based on the liklihood of severe conditions actually happening. It goes against the pure science but I think if the statistics suggest theres an X% chance of a weather event based on historical data, such as this happening once in 30/40/50 years, then its unlikely to happen again so soon.

Video

i still have that feeling.. and when i get a feeling... im like the groundhog from groundhog day, the snow will come this year.

Peter125

So it's going to be bad

HighLine

amdgilmore wrote: »

Predicting that we won't get something that we almost never get is not what I would call a bold prediction.

The odds are always stacked in favour of little or no snow in this country (leaving aside areas of high elevation).

Just with regard to the higher elevations - speaking as someone who hikes in the Wicklow/Dublin mountains frequently - last year was the worst year in the 15 years I have been going up there in terms of little amounts of snow.

At no stage were the Sally/Wicklow Gaps closed due to snow and that is normally a given at some stage during a winter. So I am very much hoping that last year was statistically rare and it will be business as usual this coming season.

HighLine

HighLine wrote: »

Just with regard to the higher elevations - speaking as someone who hikes in the Wicklow/Dublin mountains frequently - last year was the worst year in the 15 years I have been going up there in terms of little amounts of snow.

At no stage were the Sally/Wicklow Gaps closed due to snow and that is normally a given at some stage during a winter. So I am very much hoping that last year was statistically rare and it will be business as usual this coming season.

There was one weekend the Sally Gap was "treacherous". There was a good bit of snow up there at that stage - I know because I had my bike up there (and up Kippure).

Looking forward to some early snow on the hills.

Red Pepper

I have a strong feeling in my bones that this winter will be an icy/snowy one. It's hard to explain but I believe it to be true. I love the outdoors and I love winter hill walking so I am very excited.
I don't know much about weather models so let me explain my recent confidence....Large areas of my lawn suffered during the dry summer and I have taken it on myself to restore it. The grass is yellowish and sparse in these areas. So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky. I don't know what it is exactly but something about the clouds and the stars and the general feel from the air leads me to believe that a cold winter is in store. I will also have the darkest greenest lushest grass next year. Here's hoping!

wexie

Red Pepper wrote: »

So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky.

Peter125

Only time will tell,but for now we have lots of rain coming tomorrow

Lucreto

I don't know if this has been posted yet.

http://app.til.it/opi/

HighLine

Dónal wrote: »

There was one weekend the Sally Gap was "treacherous". There was a good bit of snow up there at that stage - I know because I had my bike up there (and up Kippure).

Looking forward to some early snow on the hills.

But neither gaps were ever closed last year. The following pic (19th Dec '13) would probably be classed as "treacherous" to the masses but compared to the usual up there, it was nothing and the roads were passable once you know how to drive.



Where as this is more along the lines of what I usually see (Jan '10)

amdgilmore

Wow. Can't believe that's in Ireland.

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know if this has been posted yet.

http://app.til.it/opi/

Well, if they are right it could be a sensational winter for the folks here on the weather forum who like cold and snow. That Greenland height anomaly...heh.

We'll see!

hatrickpatrick

Why has everyone suddenly gone from unbelievable ramping to unbelievable pessimism in the last 2 days or so? A couple of downgrades (recovering PV) well before the end of November and miles out in FI are not a cause for panic, people!

Am I missing something?

Iancar29

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why has everyone suddenly gone from unbelievable ramping to unbelievable pessimism in the last 2 days or so? A couple of downgrades (recovering PV) well before the end of November and miles out in FI are not a cause for panic, people!

Am I missing something?

All the ramping is for the FI thread only at this stage im afraid :P

But im certainly not being pessimistic , just being patient

mrbrianj

Red Pepper wrote: »

I have a strong feeling in my bones that this winter will be an icy/snowy one. It's hard to explain but I believe it to be true. I love the outdoors and I love winter hill walking so I am very excited.
I don't know much about weather models so let me explain my recent confidence....Large areas of my lawn suffered during the dry summer and I have taken it on myself to restore it. The grass is yellowish and sparse in these areas. So I have started urinating on the lawn in a controlled manner to try and fill the soil with nitrates and urea over the winter months to be ready for Spring. So it means I am out in my garden (I live in a rural area) every evening/night twice or three times spraying all over the place while looking at the night sky. I don't know what it is exactly but something about the clouds and the stars and the general feel from the air leads me to believe that a cold winter is in store. I will also have the darkest greenest lushest grass next year. Here's hoping!

This is quite possibly the best post I have ever read on boards!

Forget Keith Barry, The Donegal Postman and the Kiwi - this guy is plugged in. (for grass greening logistics I hope its a guy!)

davidsr20

What's the donegal postmans predictions this year?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

davidsr20 wrote: »

What's the donegal postmans predictions this year?

That all cards must be posted by December 18th :pac:

icesnowfrost

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models seem to be pointing to a quiet almost slack pressure pattern for several days next week, which could promote some dense fog or lingering frost in a few places, but temperatures close to average if perhaps slightly on the colder side. One model then goes on to show colder air seeping in from the east near the end of the month.






That's from MT this morning. All eyes towards the end of the month

KingdomRushed

Cold plunge into north america, sparking big depressions in the Atlantic, a strengthening jet? Sound familiar? Well that's the latest GFS outputs. However, it is only November 11th so a long road ahead this winter.