The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

bb1234567

DeVore wrote: »

Its too cold for snow! -- Irish Mammies throughout the centuries...

Not just mammies say it ! :mad: People my age believe it too and it irritates me so much! Like theyll fight me on it and tell me Im wrong, one of my friends thinks when it hits zero C the snow freezes or some sh*t and then its not able to snow anymore I dont even know what he was trying to say it was so stupid and other people tell me if theres frost then thats a sign it wont snow because its too cold

DeVore

point out that the Artic reaches -50 C and it still snows somehow

Villain

bb1234567 wrote: »

Not just mammies say it ! :mad: People my age believe it too and it irritates me so much! Like theyll fight me on it and tell me Im wrong, one of my friends thinks when it hits zero C the snow freezes or some sh*t and then its not able to snow anymore I dont even know what he was trying to say it was so stupid and other people tell me if theres frost then thats a sign it wont snow because its too cold

It has some logic to it to be fair, very low temps very often come from dry high pressure systems that fail to deliver Snow, but obviously as you are aware we can and have seen very cold spells that will deliver Snowfall, 2010 being a prime example.

Tabnabs

Winter has finally arrived in south western Norway







About 60m asl at lowest levels.

wildefalcon

Not fair - we only had frost this morning - 0 degrees according to the car.

Still, 'tis a step in the right direction.

Villain

Worth noting that last night saw the 3rd coldest temp of 2014 at my station:

Jan 2014 Minimum temperature -4.6°C on day 14 at time 04:23
Jan 2014 Minimum temperature -3.0°C on day 13 at time 23:55
Nov 2014 Minimum temperature -2.9°C on day 24 at time 04:11
March 2014 Minimum temperature -2.3°C on day 11 at time 07:06

snaps

Snowing fairly heavily here in southern poland. -1c and coming down steadily. Strange as last year it was November 24th the first snowfall of the winter too!

jamo2oo9

snaps wrote: »

Snowing fairly heavily here in southern poland. -1c and coming down steadily. Strange as last year it was November 24th the first snowfall of the winter too!

Pics please

snaps

Some lovely runs on the models now. Cold really building in the east. Then in fi its covering most of northern Europe east to west.

snaps

Struggling to post photos via my mobile. Heres a webcam link to the local ski resort a few Km's away:

http://spytkowice.webcamera.pl/

hatrickpatrick

Precipitation charts on the GFS show Ireland getting a blast of snow at 252h (6 December) and again at 300h (8 December). Unfortunately these are sandwiched between very heavy rain periods so it won't stick if it happens at all, but again, nice to see charts like that appearing at this time of year

delw

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Precipitation charts on the GFS show Ireland getting a blast of snow at 252h (6 December) and again at 300h (8 December). Unfortunately these are sandwiched between very heavy rain periods so it won't stick if it happens at all, but again, nice to see charts like that appearing at this time of year

Probably better chance of the rain happening as usual

pauldry

looking at wetterzentrale output high pressure seems dominant after 1st december

JanuarySnowstor

Am having doubts that this winter will deliver..

Greenland looks light years away from any type of height rise.

Scandi high is possible but another while yet before it shows it's hand

Harry Palmr

pauldry wrote: »

looking at wetterzentrale output high pressure seems dominant after 1st december

and to the south at that! South-Westerlies ahoy.

AnotherYear

26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a possible Northerly by approx 6th of December.

Iancar29

AnotherYear wrote: »

26 out of the 51 EC ENS members from the 00Z run show potential blocking to the NW of the UK and a possible Northerly by approx 6th of December.

Yep i agree.. strong likelihood of NORMAL high-ground snow up north if that trend continued.

this Is terrible weather now. early on the month most would agree, quite cold last week of November but not at all!!

c'mon I don't know dick about weather!! what are we looking at here?? in childrens terms, none of your fancy meterological quackery!

Speak Now

rusty cole wrote: »

this Is terrible weather now. early on the month most would agree, quite cold last week of November but not at all!!

c'mon I don't know dick about weather!! what are we looking at here?? in childrens terms, none of your fancy meterological quackery!

Its great weather in fairness after all the rain, snow would be nice but a nice crisp frosty morning this time of the year is lovely.


BTW in Children's terms ...... No snow on the horizon.

Jerry Seinfeld

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Its great weather in fairness after all the rain, snow would be nice but a nice crisp frosty morning this time of the year is lovely.


BTW in Children's terms ...... No snow on the horizon.

NEWMANNNNNNNNN!!!!!:mad:

droidman123

rusty cole wrote: »

this Is terrible weather now. early on the month most would agree, quite cold last week of November but not at all!!

c'mon I don't know dick about weather!! what are we looking at here?? in childrens terms, none of your fancy meterological quackery!

You are asking this on the wrong thread,no one can long range the forecast for ireland,just cant be done. The mystic meg thread would have a better chance of answering your question two to three days max is the furthest irelands forcast can be accuratly predicted.

icesnowfrost

her is an ould reminder while things are quite.
pic from the 1st and 7th of dec 2010. in drogheda

The_Shotz

Just to keep teasing us along from the last four days, three of the days have been frosty and cold in Waterford. I spotted -1 this morning and just 1c a few minutes ago.

icesnowfrost

2 more from 2010....it was interesting to see all the types of snow we got.

droidman123

droidman123 wrote: »

You are asking this on the wrong thread,no one can long range the forecast for ireland,just cant be done. The mystic meg thread would have a better chance of answering your question two to three days max is the furthest irelands forcast can be accuratly predicted.

mystic meg you say???? North miss tessmocker!! North!!!!

Larbre34

Charts out past FI are a bust.

9.

The temperature will always be 9.

Redsunset

Just an observation and not saying it happens every time but lets see if the near record early warming at 10mb (Mid Strat) has an effect 3 to 4 weeks down the road. The Christmas period and New Year might be interesting. Remember Not saying it will happen as other things have to line up too. Heres the Beginning of NOV 2010 one and I also note the Mid Nov + Dec 2009 before Jan 10 freeze.



And now Nov 2014 spike. Take it for what it is. Cold will always go somewhere but its all about increasing chances.

Lumi

FYI The Netweather winter forecast for 2014/2015 has been issued

Here's the link to the detailed, technical forecast and a brief overview

Looking forward to reading this properly tonight!

maquiladora

Lumi wrote: »

FYI The Netweather winter forecast for 2014/2015 has been issued

Here's the link to the detailed, technical forecast and a brief overview

Looking forward to reading this properly tonight!

Very interesting read alright. A late December-early January cold spell would be nice if it set it just in time for Christmas, but I guess it will depend on the timing of stratospheric events and the downwelling to the troposphere. Fingers crossed anyway.

xXxkorixXx

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

Tom Cruises Left Nut

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

omicron

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

Dublin sunset is 16.14 this evening, so the last time it was dark this early was December 29th last year.

Iancar29

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

Rikand

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

^^ The Dublin Milkman

NufcNavan

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

Its getting so dark out and its only 3:15 in the afternoon! The last time it started getting dark this early If I remember correctly, was 2010

AnotherYear

Netweather released their Winter FC. Main points

Overall the key conclusions are that winter will have the following characteristics:
Slightly colder than average.
Around average rainfall but conditions favour wetter further south and drier to the north of the UK.
December likely to be the most unsettled month with the risk of a significant wind event (though less so compared to last year).
February the most settled and driest month.
Late December and into January is most likely to herald a significant wintry spell, though other major cold snaps throughout the winter are likely as well.
Most of the UK likely to see some settling snow at some point.
Overall Winter CET of 3.5-4°c.
December CET forecast: 4-4.5°c.
January CET forecast: 3-3.5°c.
February CET forecast: 3.5-4.5°c.

Harry Palmr

AnotherYear wrote: »

Late December and into January is most likely to herald a significant wintry spell, though other major cold snaps throughout the winter are likely as well.
Most of the UK likely to see some settling snow at some point.

Wow! Such insight.

Thargor

How could they possibly predict a major wind even this early?

Red Pepper

Red Pepper wrote: »

I still feel there will be snow but I don't see it happening until the new year. Red Peppers prediction are snow and considerable cold around the 6th of January and the 1st & 22nd of February.

Red Pepper's prediction looking good thus far.

emmetlego

Red Pepper wrote: »

Red Pepper's prediction looking good thus far.

Talking about oneself in the 3rd person?

And no, it will only look good if it comes true

maquiladora

Thargor wrote: »

How could they possibly predict a major wind even this early?

An increased risk of it happening, because their forecast anomaly chart for the month shows a strong low pressure signal in our neck of the woods.

Clonmel1000

Scrappychimow wrote: »

I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

Anyway back to the o/p statement.......

Clonmel1000

Scrappychimow wrote: »

Ok then, everyone that doubts my prediction pays 20 euro in November when there is a blanket of snow across the country :cool:

Rock Lesnar

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Anyway back to the o/p statement.......

You beat me to it.

amdgilmore

Does he have to pay 20 euro to everybody else who posted in this thread?

You should make that a rule for predictions! I'd bet the predictions based on historical models, 'pattern matching' and geese flight would be sharply curtailed.

Oasis1974

Can i ask why people are obsessed with a white winter or Christmas? The disadvantages of cold arctic conditions are terrible. Infrastructure grinds to a halt old people suffer more than young during these conditions. Lose of life in extreme cases your car is in bits in those conditions aswell. No offense but there's an element of sadomasochism in wanting a snow/cold winter. Go skiing if you want snow i for one am glad of Ireland's mild and mostly snow less winters. :P

Rikand

Oasis1974 wrote: »

Can i ask why people are obsessed with a white winter or Christmas? The disadvantages of cold arctic conditions are terrible. Infrastructure grinds to a halt old people suffer more than young during these conditions. Lose of life in extreme cases your car is in bits in those conditions aswell. No offense but there's an element of sadomasochism in wanting a snow/cold winter. Go skiing if you want snow i for one am glad of Ireland's mild and mostly snow less winters. :P

While I am 100% in your corner on this one - that kind of talk is bannable in this thread. We should make a "No snow this winter" thread for us guys

Calibos

Oasis1974 wrote: »

Can i ask why people are obsessed with a white winter or Christmas? The disadvantages of cold arctic conditions are terrible. Infrastructure grinds to a halt old people suffer more than young during these conditions. Lose of life in extreme cases your car is in bits in those conditions aswell. No offense but there's an element of sadomasochism in wanting a snow/cold winter. Go skiing if you want snow i for one am glad of Ireland's mild and mostly snow less winters. :P

I agree!
...and another thing! Can I ask why people are obsessed with a long hot heatwave Summer. The disadvantages of warm/hot Iberian like conditions are terrible. Old people hospitilised or even killed by heatstroke and dehydration because their bodies can't regulate their temperature like young people, young children and teens drowning in our waterways as they try to cool themselves down, families destroyed by all the car accidents as people drive to their Summer excursions especially on Long hot bank holiday weekends, roads damaged and wear and tear increased as the heat softens the asphalt, farmers put under terrible financial pressure as drought effects their crops and silage production to see them through the Winter is severely affected.
No offense but there's an element of sadomasochism in wanting a Long Hot Summer. Go Sunbathing in the Costa Del Sol if you want Sun. I for one am glad of Ireland's dreary and mostly Sun-less Summers.

[EDIT]This was Satire people!

Tabnabs

Tis alright Oasis1974, the Cork snow shield will keep your delicate features safe from harm...

Salmon Leap

Spoilsport! :-D