The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

screamer

I agree that no one can predict the exact weather Droidman, but MT's forecasts/ predicitions tend to be more accurate than what the MET put out. Sometimes, they tell you tomorrow will be mild, wet and windy, then they do a retrospective look at "todays" weather, (which they predicted yesterday) and it was cold and dry.

Snow is particularly difficult to predict, and up to now, the indications have been for no real cold in December, so this is a definite better trend for the snow bunnies amongst us (of which I am one).

Once again, I have to thank MT Cranium, he posts here regularly with weather predictions, he is dedicated to the forum and he gets nothing out of it except thanks from some of us.

Villain

Just an FYI no-one predicted 2010 events 3 months out.

Long range forecasting can suggest trends that *MAY* happen, as long as you know that when you read one there is no problem. The problem arises when someone sees a long reached forecast and takes it as gospel.

With regards to cold and snow we can very often struggle to forecast it accurately at 48hrs.

snaps

Kaliyah Chilly Orange wrote: »

Same in Slovakia. Only snow on high mountains.
I remember flying over in 2008 to Krakow and it being 13 degrees in January. I was in shirt sleeves.
My now father in law apologised for having no snow

I'm right on Slovakian border. Not far from the tatra mountains.

Red Pepper

screamer wrote: »

Once again, I have to thank MT Cranium, he posts here regularly with weather predictions, he is dedicated to the forum and he gets nothing out of it except thanks from some of us.

Absolutely but when people are slagging other long range forecasters (e.g Ken Ring), let's not forget despite the Boards Weather adoration that MT gets, he is often wrong as well.

maquiladora

Red Pepper wrote: »

Absolutely but when people are slagging other long range forecasters (e.g Ken Ring), let's not forget despite the Boards Weather adoration that MT gets, he is often wrong as well.

Personally, I don't have a problem with weather enthusiasts having a bit of fun and making long range forecasts, it's harmless fun to test their own personal theories or whatever. The problem I have is with those "forecasters" with private websites who are only interesting in reeling gullible people into their advert-laden and "premium content" riddled websites with no purpose only to generate money from that gullibility. And what may be even worse is that the tabloid press in the UK and Ireland is only too happy to provide free advertising for these types, and of course these articles call these charlatans and jokers "forecasters" which then gives professional forecasters (and genuine hobbyists who just like to make long range forecasts for fun and not for money), a very bad name.

snaps

Some pics from a walk this morning around our land. Current temp -8c (13.00) Approx 650m asl.

HighLine

Great pics Snaps... very jealous.

Jude13

Amazing pictures.

esposito

I'm gonna stick my neck out and make a bold prediction that from Dec 28th - Jan 4th we will get our first significant fall of snow. Yes, it will be a cold New Year for a change.:pac:

snaps

HighLine wrote: »

Great pics Snaps... very jealous.

Sometimes i feel lucky where we live now. The climate is very good, Warm sunny summers but winter can be harsh but I dont miss the winters the west of Ireland threw at me! I am extremely rual though, our nearest neighbours are 800m away! We have a lot of land, some land we have is around 900m asl. The land its on is part of the Beskidy mountains that run from Czech rep through southern Poland into Slovakia and I think Ukraine. The high Polish Alps "Tatras" are about 35km to my south east. Slovakian border is approx 10kms.

I really do get homesick sometimes, as i miss the west of Ireland. I married a Polish lass!

droidman123

maquiladora wrote: »

Personally, I don't have a problem with weather enthusiasts having a bit of fun and making long range forecasts, it's harmless fun to test their own personal theories or whatever. The problem I have is with those "forecasters" with private websites who are only interesting in reeling gullible people into their advert-laden and "premium content" riddled websites with no purpose only to generate money from that gullibility. And what may be even worse is that the tabloid press in the UK and Ireland is only too happy to provide free advertising for these types, and of course these articles call these charlatans and jokers "forecasters" which then gives professional forecasters (and genuine hobbyists who just like to make long range forecasts for fun and not for money), a very bad name.

I agree totally with you about the ken rings,James maddens,etc.I know they are only money making rackets,but the point is, apart from their reasons for long range weather forecasters,there's no difference in them and anyone else long ranging Ireland's weather forecast because it simply can't be done.I admire mt cranium and any other weather enthusiasts.it seems to be a very interesting hobby and I certainly never meant to have a pop at any of them.I just don't wear rose tinted glasses when reading anyone's long range weather forecast for Ireland,I honestly don't see the point. As I said earlier,I love a bit of snow,especially at Christmas time,but it gets tiresome when people print charts and say things like "things could get interesting for Ireland in 10 days or 2 weeks from now". The fact is its not " interesting" because its all mystic Meg stuff.science doesn't come into it in any way shape or form because their is no science available yet that can long range Ireland's weather forecast.

Timistry

snow porn right there!

nacho libre

i recall the uk met office predicting a very cold outbreak three weeks before it happened in 2010- their monthly update at the time was quite confident about it, when usually they would be cautious.
mt, i recall, predicted it in advance too. these people do get it wrong, but this narrative that it is impossible to ever predict the weather accurately beyond three days is misleading. however that is not to say their predictions can often be wrong, especially when it comes to cold weather, as little local features, like shortwaves, can direct the cold elsewhere. mt has been wrong sometimes, so it's true he is not a deity to be revered:P) but it would be showing a bit more balance to acknowledge that he does get it right sometimes.

MadDog76

vicwatson wrote: »

Buffalo, New York :P

Where it belongs .......... it's not welcome over here!! :P

Nabber

Some nice pics there snaps.

Some nice back and forwards from Droidman and Maq.

Read MTs forecst, my understanding is MT basis his predictions on moon cycles as a predominant factor in his predictions?
I like his forecasts, I also like that I can choose to agree or disagree.

I think we here in Ireland for the most part stay snow free more often than any other part of the planet at this latitude.

Good look predicting snow here. It's hard predicting snow here 3-4 hours before a event

To all predicters, keep up the good work. Pioneering takes time and a phenomenal amount of mistakes....

Snaps thanks again, 79 thanks, just shows people want weathet not debates

BuilderPlumber

Villain wrote: »

Just an FYI no-one predicted 2010 events 3 months out.

Long range forecasting can suggest trends that *MAY* happen, as long as you know that when you read one there is no problem. The problem arises when someone sees a long reached forecast and takes it as gospel.

With regards to cold and snow we can very often struggle to forecast it accurately at 48hrs.

I recall no one predicted that 2010 snow event even the day before it happened! A few snow showers was all was forecast. Instead, it lasted a period stretching from 27th November right up to St Stephen's Day. The only white Christmas I remember and definitely not one of the better Christmases I have had to be honest.

Snow featured a lot in 2009 and 2010 for some reason. There was snow at both the start and end of both years. From 2011 to 2013, the weather reverted back to normality. The 2013/14 winter then was full of violent hurricanes the worst since 1997/98. I hope we get neither bad snow or bad wind this year. The snow came early and the wind came late in 2010 and 2013/14 respectively. Bad weather out of season (eg. snow in Novemner (usually more common late December/January) and wind in February (usually more prominent from October to December)) tends to come on very extreme and it shows the weather is messed up. 1997, 2010 and late 2013/early 2014 were among the worst years I remember.

ch750536

Scrappychimow wrote: »

I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

Time beat ya OP, time beat ya.

DOCARCH

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

I recall no one predicted that 2010 snow event even the day before it happened!

Maybe you didn't look the day before it happened?

Tabnabs

Two magical words uttered on the 07.55 forecast on RTE Radio 1 this morning - 'light dusting'. Wicklow mountains in for a wintery few days later in the week.

davidsr20

MadDog76 wrote: »

Where it belongs .......... it's not welcome over here!! :P

Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

Missymoohaa

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

Yes agree and if you hate snow, fine but can you guys not start your own thread and leave this one for the snow bunnies, perhaps.

Lucreto

The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

DOCARCH

Lucreto wrote: »

The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

Only the first day of winter...loooong way to go yet!

In the olden days - i.e. pre 2010 - I remember I wouldn't even bother looking at charts until after Christmas!

Tabnabs

Lucreto wrote: »

The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

Just out of reach, by three days...

Thursday will be another cold, foggy day with little or no lifting of the fog in places through to afternoon. The wind will pick up on Thursday night, becoming moderate northerly from the northwest in the evening. The increasing wind will be accompanied by increasing cloud too, with outbreaks of rain in the northwest on Thursday night. It'll be another cold night with sub zero temperatures so there is a chance that precipitation could turn wintry over the mountains.

omicron

Lucreto wrote: »

The cold weather is always just out of reach. It is a high of 3C in Amsterdam today.

Inland ares will be averaging 1-2C for most of this week (highs around 6, lows around -3), hardly an Indian summer now is it.

Patty O Furniture

Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

Hasn't snowed here since 2010.

DOCARCH

Patty O Furniture wrote: »

Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

Patty O Furniture wrote: »

Hasn't snowed here since 2010.

Eye in the sky

Amazing pics.... very pretty

budweiser6

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

Absolutely agree with you - I'm a lurker for years but must say there is a different atmosphere on here lately which is a pity .. I normally absolutely love the build up which could go on for weeks on end and yes there is dissapointment however there is some seriously talented amateur forecasters who post here which the forum would be all the worse for if we didn't have them. Yes... alot of the time people are looking at models in FI but so what if it doesn't come true this is for snow enthusiasts like myself and just want some... well... hope!

Thanks to all of you... I still know jack about reading models in all this time but the discussions are always brilliant!

Calibos

Patty O Furniture wrote: »

Reports are that it maybe a White Christmas especially for the Northwest & down the East, i heard it on TodayFM news this morning.

Hasn't snowed here since 2010.

That was just Today FM repeating a piece in the Star Newspaper today quoting guess who.....James 'Mad' Madden. Put no stock in it whatsoever in other words. Madden forecasts snowy Winters every single year to drive traffic to his pay site.

RebelButtMunch

budweiser6 wrote: »

Absolutely agree with you - I'm a lurker for years but must say there is a different atmosphere on here lately which is a pity .. I normally absolutely love the build up which could go on for weeks on end and yes there is dissapointment however there is some seriously talented amateur forecasters who post here which the forum would be all the worse for if we didn't have them. Yes... alot of the time people are looking at models in FI but so what if it doesn't come true this is for snow enthusiasts like myself and just want some... well... hope!

Thanks to all of you... I still know jack about reading models in all this time but the discussions are always brilliant!

“Think for yourself and let others enjoy the privilege of doing so too.” Voltaire

Radio Freak

To all you snow bunnies, I don't think its not possible to predict a accurate forcast beyond a ten day period, as our Atlantic influence is so strong and the jet stream can be so volatile. Met eireann regularly gets even a five day forcast wrong, as a low pressure might change direction etc. There are so many factors that come into play. There is no way you can predict snow for this coming winter based on so called predictive weather models months in advance. This is all guess work and very misleading to people like me with a interest in the weather.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Radio Freak wrote: »

To all you snow bunnies, I don't think its not possible to predict a accurate forcast beyond a ten day period, as our Atlantic influence is so strong and the jet stream can be so volatile. Met eireann regularly gets even a five day forcast wrong, as a low pressure might change direction etc. There are so many factors that come into play. There is no way you can predict snow for this coming winter based on so called predictive weather models months in advance. This is all guess work and very misleading to people like me with a interest in the weather.

So you think its possible then

You don't have to believe the opinions posted, and everyone is entitled to their opinion

maquiladora

For anyone who thinks there is no point to try to use observable science to attempt longer range forecasting, have a look at this :



And then have a read of this interview with Judah Cohen.

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

As I said earlier, I'm not a big fan of long range forecasting, but there has been some very interesting developments in recent years such as the SAI above which could help us get a better idea of the broad seasonal potentials. And it's purely based on science, not astrology.

Patty O Furniture

Calibos wrote: »

That was just Today FM repeating a piece in the Star Newspaper today quoting guess who.....James 'Mad' Madden. Put no stock in it whatsoever in other words. Madden forecasts snowy Winters every single year to drive traffic to his pay site.

Thanks for info, as i don't read the star or know how madden is, but just the thought of getting snow as i've a very full house for the first time inc a lot of kids, could be fun in the NW if it happens.

pistolpetes11

LRF's are part of this thread , all opinions welcome , the exception to the rule is giving credence to people who are trying to charge for there services

pistolpetes11

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Red Pepper

Love the new thread title.

Has anyone seen any snow on the peaks of Ireland yet (above 600m)?

AnotherYear

Red Pepper wrote: »

Love the new thread title.

Has anyone seen any snow on the peaks of Ireland yet (above 600m)?

Hi. Yeah I saw pictures of snow on the Sperrins a few weeks ago. Also heard they was snow in the Donegal mountains around the same time

HighLine

Red Pepper wrote: »

Love the new thread title.

Has anyone seen any snow on the peaks of Ireland yet (above 600m)?

Caught a glimpse of Lugnaquilla today and saw nothing white. This weekend two years ago up there and it was a different story. It can be quite daunting up there when there is a whiteout like below. (lots of wind noise- turn sound down)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6iLDJ9HoUI

Calibos

Was expecting to see a tauntaun nor wookie appear in frame at some point.

Silverbling

budweiser6 wrote: »

Absolutely agree with you - I'm a lurker for years but must say there is a different atmosphere on here lately which is a pity .. I normally absolutely love the build up which could go on for weeks on end and yes there is dissapointment however there is some seriously talented amateur forecasters who post here which the forum would be all the worse for if we didn't have them. Yes... alot of the time people are looking at models in FI but so what if it doesn't come true this is for snow enthusiasts like myself and just want some... well... hope!

Thanks to all of you... I still know jack about reading models in all this time but the discussions are always brilliant!

Me too and I study every chart and have done for 4 years looking to see if I can figure out the colours & highs and lows, so far I am failing badly everytime I think I got it right, I got it wrong, I will keep on being a lurker it is fascinating stuff

MadDog76

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok can I ask why there are so many snow haters looking at a snow tread?

Because we need to keep an eye on you Snow Lovers, see what you're all up to and, if necessary, step in to break up any outbreaks of Snow Dances!!!

gugsy

Nice interesting piece by simon in weatherweb https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk3kYN9s1NI#t=629

Villain

Snow lovers could head to the Northwest later this week and actually see some white stuff falling

DOCARCH

Villain wrote: »

Snow lovers could head to the Northwest later this week and actually see some white stuff falling

Snow lovers may also explode if they read MT's forecast this morning!

shmaupel

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snow lovers may also explode if they read MT's forecast this morning!

Finally!

I just going to come right out and admit that at this time of year I shamelessly just scan MT's forecast for the buzzwords

"blah blah blah blah blah blah blah SNOW blah blah blah blah blah blah blah" ☺

or failing that

"blah blah blah blah blah blah blah GALES blah blah blah blah blah blah blah" ☺

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snow lovers may also explode if they read MT's forecast this morning!

Of some consequence

Love it :pac:

rickdangerouss

shmaupel wrote: »

Finally!

I just going to come right out and admit that at this time of year I shamelessly just scan MT's forecast for the buzzwords

"blah blah blah blah blah blah blah SNOW blah blah blah blah blah blah blah" ☺

or failing that

"blah blah blah blah blah blah blah GALES blah blah blah blah blah blah blah" ☺

Yes, Ctrl F + snow is on my needed script list for Christmas.

derekon

Mmmm.......very interesting 6 -10 day forecast just issued by John Hammond on BBC Weather. Link just below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30303588

He confirms that the North of the UK is likely to see a fair amount of snow next week as the Atlantic Storms pass through and cold air digs in from the north.

Dare I say it but could MT be onto something?

D