The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

lapua20grain

good hard hoar frost this morning cracking for a walk. love this time of the year

icesnowfrost

Savage amount of frost this morning in drogheda

jamo2oo9

Same down in Limerick. Was -3C when I woke up at 8 this morning! Although it's now -1C

This is from Apple's weather app so I could be wrong.

Metmaster

Temps returning back to normal soon.Not what we want to hear:(

Blizzard 2010

Weather patterns can change within 10 days so throwing in the towel is a little premature. Temperatures in the short term are to go back to more normal range for this time of year.

numilus cimbus

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Weather patterns can change within 10 days so throwing in the towel is a little premature. Temperatures in the short term are to go back to more normal range for this time of year.

This
Look back at weather for the past 50 years and you'll see any winter extremes were post Xmas
2010 was one of a kind

hatrickpatrick

wildefalcon wrote: »

I don't get it? Two Cows? It was a DOG! I saw it!

Both Black and the other colour, but the dog has bigger teeth!

ARSE BISCUITS!!! :mad:

BuilderPlumber

numilus cimbus wrote: »

This
Look back at weather for the past 50 years and you'll see any winter extremes were post Xmas
2010 was one of a kind

And thank god for that. Being stuck indoors for a whole month and for a 3 mile journey to take an hour is not my idea of fun. Events like we saw from 27th Novermber-26 December 2010, 18th December 2013-12 February 2014 or 24 December 1997 one can well do without. All 3 weather events ruined Christmas and November, January and February too for that matter!

shmaupel

BuilderPlumber wrote: »

And thank god for that. Being stuck indoors for a whole month and for a 3 mile journey to take an hour is not my idea of fun. Events like we saw from 27th Novermber-26 December 2010, 18th December 2013-12 February 2014 or 24 December 1997 one can well do without. All 3 weather events ruined Christmas and November, January and February too for that matter!

"[Chat] The Snow Lovers* Appreciation* Society Winter 2014/15"

Ahem ;-)

Edited to add: I loved all those events - a change is as good as a rest as they say!

icesnowfrost

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4133/gfs-0-252_fbw1.png

trying to get some cold in around christmas

dacogawa

Well off in FI but first signs I've seen of something snowy, the night of the 27th/morn 28th could be interesting (just waiting for next run to blow that out of the water!)

No Azores high either...

icesnowfrost

great forecast from simon keeling. the talk of a very cold start to jan 2015. and similar strat warming to 2010 taking place.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv.htm

barney 20v

icesnowfrost wrote: »

great forecast from simon keeling. the talk of a very cold start to jan 2015. and similar strat warming to 2010 taking place.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv.htm

What's the general feeling towards Simon Keeling on here?
I follow him on YouTube and find him to be accurate enough a lot of the time-- what do ye regulars think of his forecasting skills ?

kkontour

barney 20v wrote: »

What's the general feeling towards Simon Keeling on here?
I follow him on YouTube and find him to be accurate enough a lot of the time-- what do ye regulars think of his forecasting skills ?

I like his forecasts as he does explain why he has come to his conclusion.

pauldry

yeah January looks cold alright though still think the pattern is too mobile to be 2010espue. We need a decent blocking High. There is currently patterns showing the normal regime flowing in from the Atlantic with dents in the jetstream bringing more and more cold as December goes on but in between milder spells due to the fast moving nature of the systems. A greenland High Blockage would push all the cold on top of us and push this Atlantic muck down to Spain.

At present any snow will be slushy wet stuff instead of the Breaking Bad Walter White type powder of 2010

icesnowfrost

barney 20v wrote: »

What's the general feeling towards Simon Keeling on here?
I follow him on YouTube and find him to be accurate enough a lot of the time-- what do ye regulars think of his forecasting skills ?

I love his forecasts and he's a bit of a character. But he knows his stuff and explains everything really well.

barney 20v

icesnowfrost wrote: »

I love his forecasts and he's a bit of a character. But he knows his stuff and explains everything really well.

Ok- I better state that I'm just a normal joe soap when it comes to weather etc...

I've been following MT and many threads in this forum for 4 years or that- I've also followed Keeling on line for a few years, I find I've learned an awful lot about how difficult it is to correctly forecast the weather in this part of the globe.

I put a large degree of faith in keelings methods and forecasts, he doesn't seem alarmist or "cold hunting" and like ye said he breaks it down very well for the average guy with a passing interest.

I've often wondered why he is not mentioned more in the weather forum!

ch750536

Just for fun:
Today 2009

TODAY will become colder with a keen northeast wind developing, and sea effect showers moving inland around Dublin and Wicklow, these bringing a mixture of highland snow, hail or sleet further down, and cold rain near sea level. A few lightning strikes are possible with this sea effect precip. Further west, showers will be isolated and will take roughly the same form (snow more likely higher up). Highs today may hit 7 or 8 C but it may not last beyond the first showers which will drop temperatures quickly. Also, it will feel more like 2-4 C anyway, with winds gusting at times to 40 mph.

2010

TODAY ... Continued windy and very cold with heavy snow showers in parts of Connacht, Ulster, West Munster, inland north Leinster, and flurries elsewhere during the morning to early afternoon, amounts 8-15 cms heavier once again from about Mayo to Antrim. Accumulating snow in east and southeast only likely afternoon and evening, 2-4 cms by then.

Further east and south, morning will bring some sunny intervals with passing flurries or hail showers. Winds in general NW 25-50 mph becoming WNW 25-45 mph, backing in south only to WSW 20-30 mph late afternoon, mixed showers likely in Kerry and Cork at this point, with outbreaks of heavy snow further north across Clare and Galway spreading across the country during the afternoon and evening. Widespread icy road conditions.

Highest temperatures -3 to +1 C, except 2-4 in Kerry and Cork.

2011

TODAY ... Cold and windy with outbreaks of rain, sleet or (mainly over higher terrain) snow, heavier in west and north ... winds NW 25-45 mph adding chill to highs of 4-7 C.

2012

TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals mainly across the south, light rain or showers, risk of hail and the odd rumble of thunder, also some sleet or melting wet snow possible on hills in northwest, feeling a bit colder in west to northwest winds 30-50 km/hr, and highs around 7-8 C.

2013

TODAY ... After a rather cold start with the risk of sleety showers this morning on higher ground in the north, temperatures will slowly rise to near 8 to 10 degrees by late afternoon (and will then peak near 12 C in the evening or overnight hours) as winds also rise to gale force S-SW 60-100 km/hr by sunset, with bursts of heavy rain developing after some sunny intervals earlier in the day.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

Stealthfins

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

Interesting, this could be the big one :-D

jamo2oo9

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

Midnight Sky

Thanks MT! Maybe I will buy that snow shovel in ALDI after all.

Also - Does this actually mean that Exacta Weather may be on the mark after all?

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

What time is it going to snow in Dublin? :P

kittyn

DOCARCH wrote: »

What time is it going to snow in Dublin? :P

Don't encourage them 😂😂ðŸ‘

force eleven

ECM throws a massive curveball on the latest run. Would take this with a huge pinch of county council depot road salt at present. T216-T240 is still just outside reliability range.

Keepin' it real, before the rollercoaster ride starts up...

force eleven

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/mtullett/1962-63/

Excellent daily summary of 62/63 - winter set in Christmas Day/ Stephens Day that year...

Tactical

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures......

You're saying all the right things

This would be the best Christmas present ever

Whilst being realistic about such a senario, I'm always hopeful to see and experience the extreme end of the weather spectrum (wishing everyone safe and well during extreme conditions of course... )

leahyl

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

:eek:

Storm 10

I wonder if Met Eireann are rowing back now about milder weather, yesterday on the paper they said Christmas would be very mild with temp on Christmas day 11 to 12 degrees, now this morning on radio Evelyn said Monday and Tuesday would be mild, but wait for it!! she said it's too early to call Christmas day , I smell a rat ðŸ˜႒

Tactical

leahyl wrote: »

:eek:

Calm down now

The Cork snow shield will probably deploy at around the same time any snow may fall.

I have it on good authority that during this mild period it's been taken in to the workshop and is being thoroughly cleaned and serviced in anticipation of it being needed in the coming weeks

leahyl

Tactical wrote: »

Calm down now

The Cork snow shield will probably deploy at around the same time any snow may fall.

I have it on good authority that during this mild period it's been taken in to the workshop and is being thoroughly cleaned and serviced in anticipation of it being needed in the coming weeks

:mad: Tactical I'm surprised at you!!!

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 00z ECM run shows a huge change in the weather over the 25th to 27th, with a high risk of snow and sub-freezing temperatures. This trend is partially supported by the other models although the evolution is considerably more extreme on the Euro. I would say, give this a day or two before accepting as high probability, it could be yanked away, but I have to say, this ongoing December is almost a carbon copy of Dec 1962 over North America and the western Atlantic, and has not been that different in Europe either -- the epic cold of that winter only set in with any force by Christmas week (possibly a few days earlier than what we're discussing here).

Mods take note, forum meltdown mode could be just hours or a day or two down the road.

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

going to be very exciting model watching over the next few days! amazing the change in a few days so far too early to get overly excited yet!!

Tactical

leahyl wrote: »

:mad: Tactical I'm surprised at you!!!

ok, ok, I'll ask my source to throw a spanner in the works

Bejubby

Would sombody be kind enough to post a few charts?

munsterlegend

Storm 10 wrote: »

I wonder if Met Eireann are rowing back now about milder weather, yesterday on the paper they said Christmas would be very mild with temp on Christmas day 11 to 12 degrees, now this morning on radio Evelyn said Monday and Tuesday would be mild, but wait for it!! she said it's too early to call Christmas day , I smell a rat ðŸ˜႒

They had a forecast for mild weather on Christmas on there website earlier this morning which has now been removed.

budweiser6

Omg I'm so excited, going to be a great few days on this forum, id given up hope a few days ago then BAM... some exciting charts and mts morning forecast.. Bring it on!!!!

Hero777

Some interesting/exciting viewing on the snow risk radar on Netweather!

Can't post yet as still a new user (need to sort that)

MoodeRator

Hero777 wrote: »

Some interesting/exciting viewing on the snow risk radar on Netweather!

Can't post yet as still a new user (need to sort that)

Is this this the one? Map looks great for 27th if you are in Ulster

Harps

Still a lot of variability from run to run with no clear signal being picked up on, wouldn't be getting too excited until that Atlantic ridge is solved...

s.m

MoodeRator wrote: »

Is this this the one? Map looks great for 27th if you are in Ulster

not much on the big day itself unless your goin to scotland on holidays

Larbre34

Yeah must say I raised my eyebrows at Evelyn this morning "as for the run up to Christmas - well there is low confidence on that so we're not going to call it yet"

If its on the ECM then there was a sharp intake of breath at Glasnevin this morning. The farming forecast this Sunday will be interesting to say the least!

snowgal

aghhhhhhhhhhhh, excited I am!!

leahyl

Once again, not getting too excited......

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Not gonna get excited about this until Sunday at least

We have been bitten in the backside too many times before !

Model watching is gonna be tense over the next few days....

munsterlegend

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Not gonna get excited about this until Sunday at least

We have been bitten in the backside too many times before !

Model watching is gonna be tense over the next few days....

latest Uk met office update not making too much of it though this was before this morning's models.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Hero777

s.m wrote: »

not much on the big day itself unless your goin to scotland on holidays

The night of the 27th/morning of the 28th is what got my lips wet.

Ture that Ulster looks good but so does the east coast (from Ulster but living in the east now)

Super-Rush

Was talking to a friend earlier who has been delivering salt from Dublin to the midlands for the past few weeks. They had been bringing a couple of tonnes per day but from tomorrow its being increased to 5 tonnes per day. Take from it what you will.

leahyl

Super-Rush

leahyl wrote: »

Wheres that?

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Fitzgerald's park?