The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Jude13

It's giving me a headache at how excited I am. Im glad its not this weekend, have a 13 hour trip home.

But to have a cold build up to Christmas and then to wake up on Christmas day to a guaranteed* blanket of snow is a dream come true.




*May actually be 13 degrees and lashing.

icesnowfrost

GFS - P looks amazing

munsterlegend

icesnowfrost wrote: »

GFS - P looks amazing

the updated one or from earlier?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

New GFS P run wants to give some snow in the west and midlands xmas day

cherryghost

munsterlegend wrote: »

the updated one or from earlier?

The one rolling out now. Puts -6s uppers over Ireland on xmas day and gives snow to North and Western counties.

LordNorbury

Paddy Power giving odds of 7/2 for snow to be recorded at Dublin Airport on Christmas day, for the non betting folks on here, that would give you a 45 Euro return for a 10 Euro bet...

touts

A couple of weeks ago I said something along the lines of "I won't believe it until MT Says it".

This morning I opened my e-mail clicked on the Daily forecast boards mail and my range of emotions over the next 15 seconds was :eek::eek::):D

mickger844posts

Some nice output over the last number of runs but way too early to be getting excited. Promising signs i would say but we need these charts at 96h. Fingers crossed it will pan out the way we want.

cherryghost

mickger844posts wrote: »

Some nice output over the last number of runs but way too early to be getting excited. Promising signs i would say but we need these charts at 96h. Fingers crossed it will pan out the way we want.

96, if even We'll probably get to the point of lampost watching again :cool:

munsterlegend

touts wrote: »

A couple of weeks ago I said something along the lines of "I won't believe it until MT Says it".

This morning I opened my e-mail clicked on the Daily forecast boards mail and my range of emotions over the next 15 seconds was :eek::eek::):D

he is still advising caution for next week! but the bigger picture into 2015 looks promising. still though with ireland and snow its always knife edge stuff especially the further south you go.

force eleven

LordNorbury wrote: »

Paddy Power giving odds of 7/2 for snow to be recorded at Dublin Airport on Christmas day, for the non betting folks on here, that would give you a 45 Euro return for a 10 Euro bet...

Might get on it...if some of the charts verify it will be place 45 euro to get ten back...

Reckless Abandonment

Gfs 06z say no to anything bar the north and west for some snow next week.But I'll wait till the 12z before I get to concerned.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

Fitzgerald's park?

Yup - isn't it purty? :pac:;)

LucidLife

force eleven wrote: »

Might get on it...if some of the charts verify it will be place 45 euro to get ten back...

That's not how Paddy operates. He would love people to bet and win on this. It would hit every newspaper the world over. Get the money on!

Slashermcguirk

Come on snow!!! Would love to see a white Christmas. I had a bit of a giggle when I heard Evelyn say earlier, too early to predict Christmas itself. Definite change of tune. If the charts keep improving, Gerry 'mr sleet' might even be preparing the toboggan

leahyl

Or perhaps the return of "The Eagle"??

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Yup - isn't it purty? :pac:;)

it sure is! this could be the year - winter 2014/2015!

numilus cimbus

-6 uppers are not cold enough for low ground snow in precipitation in off the Atlantic except well inland or in the Lee of hills
You'd only have a wintry mix with those uppers, with most populous places getting cold sleety rain showers
Those uppers even from the East/NE would be watery

For snow at all levels at uppers of say -2 to -6c you need either a blast of surface cold air(sea level to 1000ft) feeding in and negative dew points or you need an already local cold pool in situ from a previous cold spell typically with snow cover already well established

We got those things at times in 2010,they are not there in the Xmas day charts shown above though might develop gradually over the following week if a sinking piece of polar vortex drags down -9 ,-10 or colder uppers preferably from Scandinavia without the Atlantic mixing
A sustained northern flow will always veer between northwest and Northeast, so over time the flow would contain all the ingredients we got in 2010 meaning a lot of sea effect snow showers in Ulster north connaught,west Munster, Leinster and east Munster depending on the variation of northern on the day,north,northwest or northeast

So in a nutshell don't be expecting much at first, lets see what develops
Caveat too,this is all in FI yet.

LFCFan

Sorry lads, just stuck a tenner on a white Christmas. My betting history pretty much means there's no chance of snow at Xmas this year which is the desired effect as mobility is required on Xmas Eve

Hero777

LFCFan wrote: »

Sorry lads, just stuck a tenner on a white Christmas. My betting history pretty much means there's no chance of snow at Xmas this year which is the desired effect as mobility is required on Xmas Eve

Gotta love Betfair Exchange. got 6-1 on it. Happy out

q85dw7osi4lebg

Off to buy new bulbs for the garden lamps.

Tactical

Ryder Dry Licorice wrote: »

Off to buy new bulbs for the garden lamps.

... off to buy garden lamps

maquiladora

I think after Christmas is the best chance of seeing something interesting. Strat warming in late Dec hopefully might bring about an interesting change early in the new year.

geosynchronous orbit

Our MT, who art in Canada,
hallowed be thy name,
thy forecast come, thy will be done
now as it is in Norway.
...
...

MR PIGGY

LFCFan wrote: »

Sorry lads, just stuck a tenner on a white Christmas. My betting history pretty much means there's no chance of snow at Xmas this year which is the desired effect as mobility is required on Xmas Eve

DAMN YOU

sunbabe08

LFCFan wrote: »

Sorry lads, just stuck a tenner on a white Christmas. My betting history pretty much means there's no chance of snow at Xmas this year which is the desired effect as mobility is required on Xmas Eve

darn it.


i've gotten to a stage every year that unless i see it falling i don't have high hopes. all my optimism has faded away

average_runner

LFCFan wrote: »

Sorry lads, just stuck a tenner on a white Christmas. My betting history pretty much means there's no chance of snow at Xmas this year which is the desired effect as mobility is required on Xmas Eve

You must bet alot on your team so:)

Lucreto

Just passed where they store the salt in my area and they have nothing yet this year. They usually have a mountain stored there this time of year.

You know the weather, it loves to attack just when the county councils are completely unprepared.

Larbre34

Lucreto wrote: »

Just passed where they store the salt in my area and they have nothing yet this year. They usually have a mountain stored there this time of year.

You know the weather, it loves to attack just when the county councils are completely unprepared.

How could you see inside?

Rikand

geosynchronous orbit wrote: »

Our MT, who art in Canada,
hallowed be thy name,
thy forecast come, thy will be done
now as it is in Norway.
...
...

...
Give us this Christmas, our yearly snowfall
And deliver us from rain
as we forgive those who wish for sun against us
and lead us not into aspiration
but deliver us a blizzard
till Jan.

leahyl

Update from Met Eireann at 4.45pm - they're still not attempting to call it from Tuesday onwards...eeeek :pac:

barney 20v

leahyl wrote: »

Update from Met Eireann at 4.45pm - they're still not attempting to call it from Tuesday onwards...eeeek :pac:

Link?

LFCFan

average_runner wrote: »

You must be alot on your team so:)

Nope, someone else is jinxing us this season........or we're just sh1te

icesnowfrost

this is nice to see. still a fi though
http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141217/12/240/uksnowrisk.png

M.T. Cranium

Forecast challenge for certain, but bear in mind it is better to compare 12z ECM to yesterday's 12z than last night's run, and as many key ingredients in this developing situation are over North America, this may be one time where GFS/GEM (fairly consistent agreement) might have an edge at this point in time. We'll see how that plays out. Would not be very surprised if tonight's ECM goes back to a stronger solution.

Even on the relatively weak 12z ECM a frontal zone is gradually developing over southern coastal regions and snow potential is there from about 27th on with very minor adjustments. GFS and GEM bring in full shot of cold air through 25th-26th and there would likely be some snow here and there, nothing too organized on their charts (southern England perhaps 27th).

Probably fair to say a full range of outcomes still there for all points of view and don't expect any clarity on how strong this may turn out until perhaps Saturday at earliest. At least we're talking about significant chances and not wondering how many level 2 windstorms might strike in the next week as per last winter.

davidsr20

Ok there was great excitement about mt,s post this morning regarding snow late next week. Has something changed as this tread just died?

flanzer

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok there was great excitement about mt,s post this morning regarding snow late next week. Has something changed as this tread just died?

Sssshh. Don't talk about it. You'll curse it :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

davidsr20 wrote: »

Ok there was great excitement about mt,s post this morning regarding snow late next week. Has something changed as this tread just died?

See the charts thread, the runs are still as good if not better, still ways in FI though

M.T. Cranium

Just too early in the game to give any one model run that much credibility, the more important aspect as we await the 00z updates is that large-scale pattern change is "in the air" and not just over western Europe. There has been a flabby mild pattern over eastern North America that is about to change to colder weather, and ridiculous warmth in places like Denver and Boise that will be countered by some colder weather in about a week. The key element is a deep low that is predicted to form over the Great Lakes region around the 23rd and drift slowly northeast. This would be an ideal component to allow Greenland ridge development with a strong link to west-central arctic high pressure. The potential problem is west-based positioning of this block being so far from Ireland that there's space for another trough and downsteam weak ridge staying around long enough to prevent this clamp from being applied with sufficient force. So that's the battle we're seeing the models trying to resolve. But at least there are very positive signs that would rule out last winter's shore to shore storm express mode.

Would be massively surprised if there isn't a significant winter outbreak at some point in the next week to three week time frame given the hemispheric synoptics.

M.T. Cranium

The 00z GFS has returned to the theme of a wintry outbreak 26th-27th and the new GFS parallel run actually develops this into a major snowfall event in northeast winds around a polar vortex type of circulation. The operational GFS is less robust but would still see localized snowfalls and sub-freezing temperatures most of the day by 27th. Then a long cold, dry spell would follow according to its guidance, but it looks a bit too progressive for the overall pattern to me, might favour a compromise of the two, which is more or less what the GEM has produced to day 10 where it ends with air just cold enough for snow reaching western Ireland (overnight 27-28). This might be too slow when compared to GFS.

Thus I await the ECM with considerable anticipation, if it has any kind of zonality it could turn out to be a battleground scenario, if it reverts to last night's run then it would be fairly close to these other models, but maybe it will have yet another unexpected twist in the road.

Can say also that from a theoretical point of view, falling heights and southward moving jet stream is favoured by energy cycles that are research based and not programmed into models. If I took the GFS (or GEM) and adjusted it to my research most likely error sort of approach, it would help bring the cold in faster and stronger.

The main theme in North America is that everything comes to a grinding halt around a vast swirl of arctic air over east-central regions. This might toy with the Greenland high eventually but as for just overwhelming it and pushing its remnants southeast towards Iceland, that doesn't fit what I think the actual energy cycle is doing which is a long slow cyclonic loop of that system. Given that, the Greenland high would be more likely to swell up and remain linked to a west Atlantic centre between Bermuda and Newfoundland. And that would promote a long-term northerly flow into Ireland and Britain.

Aerohead

Back to bed snow lovers, it aint going to happen now by the looks of things

munsterlegend

Aerohead wrote: »

Back to bed snow lovers, it aint going to happen now by the looks of things

are you trying reverse psychology?! it might not happen directly on or after Christmas but great potential there according to MT and others. much better than last year anyway.

Tactical

Aerohead wrote: »

Back to bed snow lovers, it aint going to happen now by the looks of things

Lump of coal under your Christmas tree this year instead of a present

Always hopeful of snow no matter when. A week or three weeks time I don't care. Failing that a bluddy good wind event or two would suffice

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

I'm not going back to bed. I'm enjoying the roller coaster too much

cherryghost

I'm off work over the festive period for the first time in years, so really looking forward to at least a couple of days of disruption :P

Lucreto

I hope it is cold and snowy on the 27th.

It might stop people from wasting the day buying leftover crap shops couldn't sell over Christmas and spend time with the family and enjoy the snow.

leahyl

Oh I really hope we get snow!!

Akrasia

Lucreto wrote: »

I hope it is cold and snowy on the 27th.

It might stop people from wasting the day buying leftover crap shops couldn't sell over Christmas and spend time with the family and enjoy the snow.

I really hope it snows too.

I really want to to see my 5 year old son's inner conflict as his love of snow battles with inner hatred of being cold and wet. It'll be funny and cute.

My 3 year old daughter will probably dive into the snow head first and stay outside until her fingers turn blue

pegasus1

M.T. made the Indo...
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/barmy-balmy-weather-but-snow-could-still-be-on-the-way-30846229.html

diceyd

The snow base in airport getting very active

munsterlegend

diceyd wrote: »

The snow base in airport getting very active

Must be a great place to work most of the time!