The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

HighLine

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Not really
As Maq said forecasters continuously look at up to 10 days
Met Eireann don't publish their thoughts beyond 5 days usually precisely for the reason that they are realistic and know probabilities in most cases drop like a stone beyond then so no sense in alarming the masses

Mt and others here hopecast a lot with FI charts because that's what the crowd here want
So as long as people can decode that,then there's no problem, no disappointment
Most can't though

I do wish he'd wait before putting snow chances into forecasts though
Surely that lesson is there from the myriads of threads in this place where snow hopes are risen only to be dashed

No, really. And as I said above.. I was referring to...

HighLine wrote: »

Just to be clear - when I said "long range forecasting", I was referring to the likes of "It should snow mid month in February" (Stated in October)

numilus cimbus

HighLine wrote: »

No, really. And as I said above.. I was referring to...

ah sorry,I'm typing and reading on a phone and spoke about the models bit only
The point stands I think though regarding putting too much sted in FI in what is otherwise a stellar day to day job by Mt here,it's a playing to the crowd that departs from the purity of the science and I'm afraid It happens in all Internet weather fora
Net weather for example is full of if this does that and that does this we'll have snow
That's lovely,quite exciting if there's a realistic hope and the theory is all fascinating but it's not forecasting
But anyhow I'll say no more on that front

Scubadevils

I've been focusing way too much on will it or won't it snow on Christmas day and any of the dips in that prospect have left me feeling disappointed, especially when it was looking quite likely for a bit. Having followed these threads on various forums for 10 years now :eek:, I think I've finally grasped the notion of not following each model run as gospel, or at least reading the comments of those that better understand the runs here and on NW etc and taking them as gospel - the dominant theme for quite a while now has been to look towards the end of the year and into the beginning of 2015 for some cold - those that have been saying that are sticking to that and any notion of snow before then was certainly for me just so that I could enjoy Christmas even more!

So I'm now going to look forward to a somewhat seasonal Christmas day - one that looks likely to involve some nice frost to start, sunshine and cold... but then move on to eating, drinking and getting fired up for some serious cold later in the month... what better timing to be on holidays in the run up to something potentially more significant?!

Never forget 2010 though in terms of more recent snow events... took this shot when I got in the car Christmas morning.

AnotherYear

Ian Fergusson BBC weatherman for whoever is interested
"An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."

Ties in MT's thoughts of possible stormy weather. Could be a nice snow event for those on the Northern edge if it came off. Interesting times ahead

munsterlegend

numilus cimbus wrote: »

That's being blown out of proportion by people on netweather desperately looking for hints of snow.
In met speak,colder than average does not mean cold enough for snow.
His next tweet mentions storms ie wind and rain,which is the periods of severe weather he's talking about.
So please don't be disappointed

Colder than average in december/January certainly increases the chances of wintry precipitation. its better than a forecast of above average temps. the met office are looking out for deep areas of low pressure from what i understand.

storms can lead to snow falling not just rain though for this part of the world it is unusual.

maquiladora

Latest UK Met Office extended forecast paints a battleground picture for the post-Christmas Day period : areas of low pressure clashing with colder air, with areas further north and on high ground obviously getting the better chance in the rain/snow divide but it's far too early to be looking at in detail, and it's the detail that would make all the difference. Could make for a very interesting mix of weather. Something to keep an eye on at least.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

AnotherYear

I'd take that Maq to be fair. Pretty much what Ian Fergusson said, Plus I'm in Donegal so good imby potential lol

numilus cimbus

The eventul track of any storms will be fascinating but potentially disappointing
If they track say into South wales,southern England,then it's game on for cold air advection into most of Ireland and wintry showers/snow in the windward areas
Track into Ireland,then get out the sand bags with back edge snow only in flakey areas and high on the hills

It's probable in my opinion that they may trend further south
Missing us entirely would be ideal from a coldie point of view as to avoid a sloppy rainy wintry mix mess,you do need to drag that cold air South,preferably the stuff way due north or near northern Scandinavia

Pangea

The ground was white here earlier for a few minutes, from a shower of Hail.

legomaniac

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

icesnowfrost

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

Still early yet. The charts can change so quickly.

barney 20v

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

I'd consider it to be logical - candy FI charts does not a civil defence crisis make.
Waaaaaayyy to much faith placed in FI "forecasting" on here.
I love snow - but the carry on in here gets worse as the years go by !

LordNorbury

barney 20v wrote: »

I'd consider it to be logical - candy FI charts does not a civil defence crisis make.
Waaaaaayyy to much faith placed in FI "forecasting" on here.
I love snow - but the carry on in here gets worse as the years go by !

Ah relax, yeah it's a bit speculative but some people enjoy it!

barney 20v

LordNorbury wrote: »

Ah relax, yeah it's a bit speculative but some people enjoy it!

And some people go making plans with organisations for something that won't happen .... I enjoy seeing the spiral down of hope and clutching of straws ;-)
(I do enjoy snow also)
MT forecast in 2010 led me to getting snow tires and staying mobile ---- didn't but them 10/12 days out though !
Call me a snow veteran if you like, seen it all before on here! :-)

Dickie10

its giving 12 or 13 degress for next tuesday, could we be headed for the warmest ever xmas day? what is the record for this, perhaps could be a good bet this year

Storm 10

Dickie10 wrote: »

its giving 12 or 13 degress for next tuesday, could we be headed for the warmest ever xmas day? what is the record for this, perhaps could be a good bet this year

Temp drops from Wednesday so it will not be mild, ME are giving a bright cold Xmas day

cml387

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

Demonstrating the problem with using this forum as a reliable guide to weather.

It's a very reliable guide to what might be, but ME are not going to stick their necks out so far in advance.

Your colleagues are absolutely right to go by ME.

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

The ground was white here earlier for a few minutes, from a shower of Hail.

My first night back in Donegal and there's a roaring wind with hailstones smashing against the window, great to be home

M.T. Cranium

Kind of ridiculous to say that something completely unresolved was decided today by the advice of an agency that actually hasn't said anything yet one way or the other. I don't even understand any of the logic of that. We are still very much in the "either or" situation we have been in for three days with various models taking turns being on or off the boil (wrong metaphor but anyway).

The smart thing to do at this point is to be ready for possible disruption, when about half the available guidance suggests strong winter synoptics within seven or eight days. This latest 12z ECM run is not guaranteed to be right (or wrong) but bear in mind also there are not just two outcomes in play but three, one being mild returning, another significant wintry weather, and a third being something like continued cold dry from 26th on. That would be less disruptive but would require some advance planning by road agencies. My estimate is that the disruptive winter synoptics would be slightly more likely (40%) than the mild (30%) or the cold dry at 20%. That's based on a blend of the amount of supporting guidance and model reliability combined with trends over past three days.

This is a tough call for the models because the wave lengths have shortened to almost their shortest possible interval in the 3-6 day time scale and so small errors at days 4 or 5 get magnified rather quickly. In some ways the models would have less problems with an easterly and we all know how unreliable day 7-8 forecasts can be in advance of those events.

I don't believe this uncertainty will be resolved before Sunday, and it certainly isn't resolved today. When you have the two top models with verification stats that are really much more similar than different, showing entirely different patterns by day seven, and the supporting cast with yet different ideas, you have to conclude that the matter is unsettled and while anyone's hunch is as valid as the next person's, we are all dealing in hunches at this point.

I've been trying to assess what my own hunch would be, and why I hold to that. My conclusion is that by 27th-28th a different pattern than any current model depiction will actually materialize, namely a southward running storm track with higher pressure than shown emerging to the northwest of Ireland. This would bring east to northeast winds in rather quickly. I don't think there will be even a ghost of the intense storm shown on the GFS, just a fast-moving southward dropping trough that only slows down once into Biscay. Neither do I think the Atlantic storm will break through the block, here I think the GEM might have the best initial solution but I don't like its further solutions beyond day 8. We'll see if this is anywhere near correct, if it is, the weather will turn cold Christmas Eve and stay cold all the way through with occasional outbreaks of snow, some of them frontal and some of them east coast streamers. There would then be a slight thaw after New Years and a big storm around 4-6 January.

elecktras weather bomb

DEAR MT ,that's the nicest bed time story ever. I know POSSIBLE! is as huge word here. very exciting times indeed . cheers.

Reckless Abandonment

One for the more experienced here. When was the last time we had a battleground scenario do we have to go back as far as 82

maquiladora

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

One for the more experienced here. When was the last time we had a battleground scenario do we have to go back as far as 82

I'm sure we've lost plenty of those battles. The last significant "win" surely hasn't happened since the 80's.

This produced 20cm of snow at Claremorris.

Harps

That's more of a back-edge snow event though similar to the blizzards in March 2011 & 13 where the LP drags down cold air, I'd class a battleground more as an Atlantic warm front coming up against a Russian/Scandinavian high, I can't think of any in recent memory. Not quite the same setup but the 7th of February 2011 produced about 10cm of snow in Letterkenny from an Atlantic front though I seem to remember that being a very localised event

Oneiric 3

Met E forecast issued on this morning 4 years ago:





And a copy of the hourly reports issued at 7 am that morning:




An almost 20 C difference from the current reported temps in some parts.

icesnowfrost

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Met E forecast issued on this morning 4 years ago:





And a copy of the hourly reports issued at 7 am that morning:




An almost 20 C difference from the current reported temps in some parts.

Isn't it great that we have 4 year's ago to go back and remind our self's how good it was.

Pangea

Even if we get nothing at least we have hope before Christmas, unlike the last few balmy ones. Although I'm disappointed Mt thinks any cold spell will be gone in start of January.

maquiladora

The post-Christmas period has flipped again to looking less interesting on most of the main models apart from the GEM this morning.

Clonmel1000

The clutching of straws on this thread is remarkable to be honest.

maquiladora

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

The clutching of straws on this thread is remarkable to be honest.

Check the title of the thread that you're posting in.

droidman123

maquiladora wrote: »

Check the title of the thread that you're posting in.

I know what the title of the thread is,I love snow as much as anyone else,but clonmel is correct.it doesn't matter one iota what mt,James madden,Keith Barry,mystic Meg or anyone else thinks,the fact is NOBODY knows what the weather here will be like in early january.its becoming a bit farcical IMO.everyday different charts and runs are posted,what is the point if they actually don't mean anything.the only forecast I go by is wait and see,not very scientific but it has served me well.

heffoo

droidman123 wrote: »

I know what the title of the thread is,I love snow as much as anyone else,but clonmel is correct.it doesn't matter one iota what mt,James madden,Keith Barry,mystic Meg or anyone else thinks,the fact is NOBODY knows what the weather here will be like in early january.its becoming a bit farcical IMO.everyday different charts and runs are posted,what is the point if they actually don't mean anything.the only forecast I go by is wait and see,not very scientific but it has served me well.

Just leave 😭

davidsr20

droidman123 wrote: »

I know what the title of the thread is,I love snow as much as anyone else,but clonmel is correct.it doesn't matter one iota what mt,James madden,Keith Barry,mystic Meg or anyone else thinks,the fact is NOBODY knows what the weather here will be like in early january.its becoming a bit farcical IMO.everyday different charts and runs are posted,what is the point if they actually don't mean anything.the only forecast I go by is wait and see,not very scientific but it has served me well.

I have to agree really. Last few days here there's been huge hype and even the likes of an event like 1963 mentioned. Next morning all over then where models are just not reliable the far away.
Mt and maq etc really do know there stuff but I think you really can't tell until a few days before.

Scubadevils

All they do though is interpret what the models are showing *might* happen - if that includes offerings similar to 1982, 1963 or whatever, they are simply describing past similar weather events that occurred to what the computer models are showing might happen. Just as much as when it starts to go the other way, they then interpret what is being depicted... just unfortunately not what most people want to hear!

Harps

davidsr20 wrote: »

I have to agree really. Last few days here there's been huge hype and even the likes of an event like 1963 mentioned. Next morning all over then where models are just not reliable the far away.
Mt and maq etc really do know there stuff but I think you really can't tell until a few days before.

The hype is created by page after page of excitable one liner posts that follow MT or maq's posts and all of a sudden the general consensus is that that there's a blizzard on the way. The actual forecast discussion has always talked of possibilities and always acknowledged that there's huge uncertainty after Christmas

Schadenfreudia

Don't want to be a damp squid (as Bertie Ahern once said) but Met Eireann seem to have come down on the warm side for the 26th and 27th.

At 16.15 today:

Friday and Saturday are likely to become cloudy again with outbreaks of rain mainly in the west and north in a freshening southerly breeze.

Padc

Don't really understand why people come on to a thread and start whinging about what people are saying. If you don't like the thread stay off. I for 1 think its good to be optimistic. 2 foot of snow Christmas eve please

blackbird99

this would be some experience,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCxnjgrZ5Lg

Iancar29

Harps wrote: »

The hype is created by page after page of excitable one liner posts that follow MT or maq's posts and all of a sudden the general consensus is that that there's a blizzard on the way. The actual forecast discussion has always talked of possibilities and always acknowledged that there's huge uncertainty after Christmas

100% agree , this is the reason Met Eireann get a bashing from normal day to day forecasts , people hear/see the word storm on the map and conclude there must be something big on the way but the reality would be that that is only probably only isolated to certain areas . People see one word or sentence and then a few days later be like ... " sure they said we were to get a storm at the weekend , not even a breeze! "

All the regulars here should know that every winter , there is no harm for wishfull thinking threads such as this and a good FI discussion . Just like there is no harm heat lovers having their own in the summer. I recall what Maq has already said , all future events ( even 2 weeks ahead at times ) are proving by some chart in FI . Trends are the key . If you were given a bunch of straws of variable length , and somebody told you to find the average length with only a fixed amount of choices available , you will indeed pick a few and then make an average guess at the mean length.

If a chart is in the FI thread , its there for a reason. A dedicated forecast/warning thread would be opened on Monday at the earliest if a trend continues for a diving low to develop.


Now... off to the FI thread to post some thoughts

Dickie10

i left out hay for sheep last nite, they nibbled and pulled at a bit of it but barely ate any, surest sign of a mild week or two ahead

Harry Palmr

No chance of snow for as far as the models or ones gut instinct can see. Its a westerly winter no question.

elecktras weather bomb

ah Dickie went out the garden today. the flippin daffodils have shoots coming up, a tad strange I thought. give it time for things to cool down, you could be in and out like a yo yo in a couple of weeks keeping their little tummys warm.

snaps

I hate to rub it in but here in southern Poland its blizzard conditions! Unfortunately where I live there is no lamp posts to take a photo of. My flash just makes it all blurred.

icesnowfrost

snaps wrote: »

I hate to rub it in but here in southern Poland its blizzard conditions! Unfortunately where I live there is no lamp posts to take a photo of. My flash just makes it all blurred.

Snaps, your such a tease!

Schadenfreudia

Padc wrote: »

Don't really understand why people come on to a thread and start whinging about what people are saying. If you don't like the thread stay off. I for 1 think its good to be optimistic. 2 foot of snow Christmas eve please

I neither whinged about what anybody was saying here nor do I dislike the thread.

There was a debate about what would happen after the 25th.

I read the ME forecast and reported that.

ffs..... :rolleyes:

Padc

That wasn't actually aimed at you. Sorry

vistafinder

Dickie10 wrote: »

i left out hay for sheep last nite, they nibbled and pulled at a bit of it but barely ate any, surest sign of a mild week or two ahead

Baaaa humbug!!!

They could be useing it sparingly for when the weather gets bad :rolleyes:

flanzer

Dickie10 wrote: »

i left out hay for sheep last nite, they nibbled and pulled at a bit of it but barely ate any, surest sign of a mild week or two ahead

They clearly read MT's slight downgrade! :pac:

Schadenfreudia

Padc wrote: »

That wasn't actually aimed at you. Sorry

Oops!

i thought it was...my bad

Slashermcguirk

Snaps....it's +9 degrees in krakow. Apparently a very mild polish winter so far. Where are you?

snaps

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Snaps....it's +9 degrees in krakow. Apparently a very mild polish winter so far. Where are you?

+9? Who or where did you read that? I'm 60km south of Krakow and its -2 and snow. I'll post pics again later as the kids are hassling me to take them skiing/sledging!