The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Xenji

The forecast at 00.30 on BBC was interesting, well at least in regards the second scenario for St. Stephens day as we could be looking at very strong winds and a possibility of snow if the front tracks southerly.

screamer

Met Eireann are giving no snow at the moment, cold, storms, hail, sleet but no mention of snow...... I think it might be into Jan before we see any snow if at all this year.

nacho libre

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QM6_GqVWjA

if something on this scale ever occurred here, there would be not so civil war breaking out on this forum, for those who still had internet access.

Pangea

The charts last week looks so promising, ah well, at least Christmas day will be nice and cold.

Schadenfreudia

Nabber wrote: »

Where do you see hope in that.
You need to repost that in the mild thread 😁

On a lighter note, NewGrange failed again on the winter solstice.

There actually is a mild thread! I thought you were pulling the old leg

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

The charts last week looks so promising, ah well, at least Christmas day will be nice and cold.

well at least you won't have to worry about your toupee blowing away this year, senor pangea;)

Baggy Trousers

Nice to see the stars out tonight. Orion high in the sky always make me optimistic of decent frost and snow. That rain was doing my head in. Chilly enough now too.

Nabber

Bit of snow here and there wont cut it for me anymore. Need a few days lying snow.
Need under cutting lows to keep rolling in. Even slack high with some lake effect will do me.

Snow that quickly turns to slush? I'd rather watch the Euro vision song contest with subtitles

Tarzana2

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

And yes, we had many weeks of snow on the ground in 2010 here too, with temps not rising above freezing for many many days, so as cold, if not colder than south Dublin, but you are completely missing my point, a point I have already made twice and shan't be making again.

Yeah, where I was in the west of Ireland in 2010 was FAR colder than Dublin during that spell. Much less snow but much, much colder temperatures.

cherryghost

Just to keep everyones hopes up, this is snow accum at +54

snaps

I didn't realise how cold Scandinavia is at the moment. Was talking to my mate in Northern Finland and he said its currently -28 there!!

Currently here in Poland, its 6c all of last weeks snow has gone apart from above 1200m. Cooling down this afternoon after a very mild few days (+12). Snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow and by new year it could be -15c or so. Fingers crossed!

Baggy Trousers

cherryghost wrote: »

Just to keep everyones hopes up, this is snow accum at +54

I think that's Norway in the map? In any case the snowfall there looks epic!
I think we should all go there next Xmas...

Iancar29

Its snowing!! In GTA online ! #Addictedtosnow

Pangea

Anyone have any details on the meteors to be seen tonight?

Harps

Hail and sleet here in Donegal at the moment, about as close as we're going to get to a white Christmas by the looks of it..

AnotherYear

The met office have a snow warning issued for all of Northern Ireland on Friday

Pangea

Just looked out for the star and witnessed thunder and lightning, couple of nice flashes and rattles.

jamo2oo9

AnotherYear wrote: »

The met office have a snow warning issued for all of Northern Ireland on Friday

Perhaps North East Louth might get some of that

Rock Lesnar

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Perhaps North East Louth might get some of that

perhaps even north meath

M.T. Cranium

Today's model runs have almost entirely shifted the track of the low for Friday 26th into central Ireland and dropped the intensity considerably (although that is more of an issue for UK forecasts of strong winds that will need to be downgraded).

This is somewhat of an upgrade for snow potential in all counties north of a Galway to Dublin line. Cold air that is in place before the low arrives will be harder to shift if the low does not advect Atlantic warmth into Donegal Bay. The less intense nature of the low might downgrade total precip amounts associated, but a higher percentage of that will now be snow or sleet in areas that were expected to get into a warm sector that will now be quite weak and confined to the southern third of Ireland.

This means essentially that 3-5 cm snow potential exists for most places north of a Galway to Dublin line, and inland more than (roughly) 10-15 km to remove any slight warming from the sea. I would say there could be an elevation effect too, but this might be a moot point if the cold air is trapped long enough, then snow could fall almost as low as the terrain that far inland anyway. Nature does not easily sustain artificial boundaries like a 150m rain-snow cutoff when it has to sit over land that is generally about 50-100m.

So would be prepared then for a coating of snow and possibly some freezing drizzle mixed in, over all counties north of Galway to Dublin. Will post any updates about that both here and in forecast thread.

Once the low moves through by Saturday morning, the colder air will slump back south rather quickly -- earlier ideas about a mild, windy start to Saturday and a sudden temperature fall might better be expressed this way -- early Saturday morning in the south it might stay just mild enough for liquid precip, then all areas will be cold enough for sleet by morning but there will be some clear slots rotating around this system followed by the best chance for accumulating snow in areas south of the original band (as well as over that area) on Saturday evening into Sunday morning when 1-3 cm could fall. This will have less chance of reaching the east coast than earlier in the day Saturday when some northeast component to the wind could induce some streamers, but these might be mixed.

The net result is that some areas will get a snow cover during the period Friday to Sunday and some won't, and it will correspond fairly well to overall climatology, if you live in a place that is generally milder you likely won't see snow out of this but you could see a bit that doesn't stick. If you live on a higher portion of a colder area you almost certainly will see snow.

Updates to follow -- the other mystery not yet solved in the model runs is how long the high stays nearby after the low moves through, and whether or not it might swell up and get undercut by an easterly. The GEM shows a possible snowfall event for Ireland on 2-3 January from a rotating energy centre moving northwest from France. This has limited support elsewhere but to be frank, the models have stunk the joint out on this coming 48-72h and most of the output from 3-5 days back is now apparently rubbish. My earlier stated hunchcast was actually an improvement over most of it, and there again, we can't know for certain that this latest run is the end of the southward shift, or whether this low will just entirely give up the idea of moving north and run along a stalled front in the south. Then it could snow almost everywhere in Ireland on Friday.

shmaupel

^
Best
Christmas
Present
EVER!

shmaupel

Thanks for the forecasts all year MT.

Merry Christmas!

Darwin

I very rarely post here, but a very merry Christmas MT and thanks for all your dedication and interest in our weather from somewhere so far away!

Harps

Hi-res models are now suggesting that the northern half of the country will stay dry as that low gets modelled ever further south. It'll be a nowcast though with the main models having so much trouble getting to grips with the next few days. UKMO obviously think there's a snow risk when they've got a warning out for NI though their own model says it'll be dry..

pauldry

Let it snow
Let it snow
Let it snow

Harry Palmr

It won't snow except on some mountains.

Xenji

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It won't snow except on some mountains.

Honestly we do not need your type in this thread :pac:

Musicman2000

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It won't snow except on some mountains.

Any scientific reasons why ? Have you a crystal ball ?

RED L4 0TH

850 hpa temps, DP's and area of precipitation for midday Friday according to 18Z Euro4. Shifting southwards I'd say. Possible snow for elevated areas only?

droidman123

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Any scientific reasons why ? Have you a crystal ball ?

Everyone else is using a crystal ball so why not harry palmr? If you look sensibly at mt,s forecast its all if,s and maybe,s. The forecast , like a multitude covers everything. People will always believe what they wish for,but we have to be realistic.mother nature rules and us mere mortals will never predict her path.

icesnowfrost

Happy Christmas guys

xXxkorixXx

Happy Christmas everyone

Did someone mention NINJA SNOW!? :pac:

BBC just now are ****ting themselves about what to say about "Boxing Day". Odds are it'll be wet and windy, but it could be extreme and they're not allowed to be alarmist.

Clonmel1000

Why have you boxing day in commas as a matter of interest?

SEPT 23 1989

Big white blob over dublin and wicklow for tomorrow on the BBC just now

numilus cimbus

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Big white blob over dublin and wicklow for tomorrow on the BBC just now

That white blob represents the Dublin and wicklow mountains on the BBC news 24 forecast
The same blob is over North Wales representing snowdonia
It does not represent snow in the city or suburbs
I'd say the top of three rock only
If you want to see snow head into Sally gap or just up as far as the road into rtes mast at kip pure
There will be plenty there if the precip gets far enough North

Travel for the snow guys,it's never very far away in marginal situations like this but bring food,batteries and fully charged phones as well as a full tank of petrol

Supercell

Christmas tobogganing up the mountains, bring_it_on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

syklops

Its snowing where I am.

Schadenfreudia

numilus cimbus wrote: »

It does not represent snow in the city or suburbs
I'd say the top of three rock only

Getting so close I can almost smell it! Low last night only got down to 3.9 C, no ground frost, too windy. (5C now)

There seems to be some sort of fohn affect here from winds anywhere from S to NW; we need those blessed Beasterlies - Northerlies or Easterlies!

I'd even take a huge anticyclone with clear skies.

Storm 10

syklops wrote: »

Its snowing where I am.

Is your location a secret !!!!

Schadenfreudia

syklops wrote: »

Its snowing where I am.

In Dublin?!

From here I can see all the way to Ballymun - not a cloud in the sky bar some very high stuff moving in from the west.

You must be either in Tallaght or in bed dreaming!

icesnowfrost

syklops wrote: »

Its snowing where I am.

Pictures for god sake

syklops

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Pictures for god sake

I'll give it a bit longer before I break out the camera.

In Dublin?!

From here I can see all the way to Ballymun - not a cloud in the sky bar some very high stuff moving in from the west.

You must be either in Tallaght or in bed dreaming!

I'm in the Carpathian mountains in Southern Poland. :pac:

Schadenfreudia

Look who posted that!

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/689350/332701.gif

Gonzo

some patchy white frost here, about as close to a white christmas as were gonna get! still far better than mild wet muck on Christmas day!

Cosmo Kramer

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Storm 10

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Well you know , Christmas drinks, dinner and a snooze I'm sure they will be in later

circadian

Small hail showers since last night in the northwest. Temps dropping but nothing sticking.

Kermit.de.frog

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Strange to see it so quiet here with a potential snow event less than 24 hours away. To what extent do Met Eireann operate on Christmas Day, might they be thinking of issuing a yellow weather warning at this point for Connacht, Ulster and North Leinster?

Could be a surprise for a lucky few.

Gonzo

The Uk met Office have issued a snow warning stretching from the southern counties of Northern ireland across to parts of northern England, central England and the northern parts of east Anglia, this area of snow also includes counties Louth, Meath, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of Dublin. They have stated that it is marginal with a 30% risk of lying snow across low ground and a much higher chance of up to 10cm in high ground locations.

My thoughts is that we will mostly see a sleety rainy mix with snow on the Mournes and Wicklow Mountains.