The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

The Uk met Office have issued a snow warning stretching from the southern counties of Northern ireland across to parts of northern England, central England and the northern parts of east Anglia, this area of snow also includes counties Louth, Meath, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of Dublin. They have stated that it is marginal with a 30% risk of lying snow across low ground and a much higher chance of up to 10cm in high ground locations.

My thoughts is that we will mostly see a sleety rainy mix with snow on the Mournes and Wicklow Mountains.

Yep saw that, i'd be hoping to see some snow as i'm in north meath, but i wont believe it til i see it.

snaps

syklops wrote: »

I'll give it a bit longer before I break out the camera.



I'm in the Carpathian mountains in Southern Poland. :pac:

You cant be far from me then as we've had lots of snow today!

DOCARCH

Latest from ME...a little more wintry than earlier forecast:

On St. Stephen's Day, rain will extend to all areas during the morning and will turn heavy over Munster, Connacht and Leinster. The rain will turn to sleet or wet snow later in the morning and through the afternoon over parts of Connacht, south Ulster and north Leinster with the risk of snow falling on higher ground and perhaps at lower levels for a time also.

M.T. Cranium

Satellite imagery suggests that there's a fairly large dose of moisture coming along despite the weak and flabby appearance of this low on the 18-24 hour portion of the model runs this (afternoon). And the track just seems to be slipping ever further south. Upper temps are marginal but the warm advection won't be much of a factor north of the track which right now looks to be central Clare across north Tipp and Laois into south Wicklow.

With heaviest precip in the southeast arriving mid-afternoon and lasting to almost midnight, could see a dropping rain-snow line by elevation during the event.

Feel about 70% confident that parts of central and northern counties will get a covering from this, and most hills along and south of the track, but 40% chance that snow gets down low enough to leave a coating by end of the event on some but not all parts of the southeast. Not much snow likely in west Munster except on terrain that is higher than 250m.

Another and possibly better in some cases chance for snow later Saturday, partly because there is more of a northeast component for a time.

It seems possible that at the last minute the track will shift further and cold will refuse to be pushed off the surface anywhere inland from the south coast. In that case the northern edge of snow might be pulled a bit further into Ulster and north Leinster and the rain-snow dividing line could drop lower yet and closer to Cork and Waterford. This would be if the low tracks let's say across Kerry and south Cork then into south Wales after exiting near Dunvargan. That would seem to be about the limit of how much further this could shift south before the models run out of time to be wrong. But (think of date) were they ever wrong, where's the 960 mb low in the North Sea now? That was a bizarre collection of maps from about 21st that form a good illustration of how forecasting used to be in the bad old days.

mhiggy09

So is the chance of snow high for South cavan. Im at 100m so is chance of snow even higher?

elvis99

Slightly off topic I know, but TG4 are carrying a half hour documentary at 6.15pm this eve called "Bliain an tSneachta Mhoir" about the winter of 1947, might make for some interesting viewing.

Schadenfreudia

elvis99 wrote: »

Slightly off topic I know, but TG4 are carrying a half hour documentary at 6.15pm this eve called "Bliain an tSneachta Mhoir" about the winter of 1947, might make for some interesting viewing.

Great book on that by Kevin C Kearns called Ireland's Arctic Siege (The Big Freeze of 1947) (pub 2011).

Great read for a cold night by the fire.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM 12z gives a slightly better chance for some snow for a time tomorrow as the rain clears compared to the GFS. This will be a nowcast rather than a forecast. Very marginal between an event and non event.

Don't be surprised no matter where you reside if you see some flakes tomorrow.

Redsunset

Temps too high during main rain bulk. Northern belt of system and elevated areas have a good chance of seeing decent covering. Sleet/snow showers as it pulls away further south but looking very minimal precip by that stage. Good to watch though.

Pangea

elvis99 wrote: »

Slightly off topic I know,.

Hardly, Look at thread title Very on topic

Pangea

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford and Westmeath
Heavy rain will turn to sleet and on higher ground to snow with the risk of snow on lower levels in the afternoon and evening.

Issued:Thursday 25 December 2014 18:00
Valid:Friday 26 December 2014 08:00 to Friday 26 December 2014 21:00

sunbabe08

i've lost count how many times i just heard cold in the weather forecast on rte

Pangea

Looks like Donegal might be too far north for the bulk of the precipitation tomorrow according to the precipitation forecast

red_bairn

sunbabe08 wrote:

i've lost count how many times i just heard cold in the weather forecast on rte

it must be getting (c)old..

Oscar Bravo

2140 update from met eireann

Cold and cloudy tonight with outbreaks of rain or sleet extending from the Atlantic.
Lowest temperatures around zero with frost in places.


Tomorrow

St Stephen's Day:
A mostly cloudy day with scattered outbreaks of rain, heavy in places. Some sleet or snow will occur also. There will be strong winds locally as well so visibility and driving conditions may be poor at times across the country. Temperatures will range from 3 to 10 degrees (highest in southern counties).

RED L4 0TH

Maybe Saturday might be a better chance for snow? Would be showers though, before high pressure dampens it all down later. Ok uppers and borderline DP's for 3pm Saturday according to the 18Z Euro4.

Pangea

anyone got one of those snow risks maps for tomorrow?

blackbird99

not much to see only rain

Schadenfreudia

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Weather Underground radar shows the warm front now stretching (1.30am) from Listowel to Cork City, lots of mixed precipitation along the leading edge away from the coasts - and snow falling on higher ground.

Should be snow falling in Abbeyfeale any minute!

icesnowfrost

a rise in temps since last nite. Went to bed with hard frost and ow it's melted.

Supercell

Any reports from the Wicklow mountain area? Temps here are too high for wintry precip at the moment here but maybe a couple of hundred meters up its different?

Rock Lesnar

A rise in temperature, the hard frost from last night is gone, and we have No Snow in north meath, just good old rain.

pad199207

Rain here in Naas but there are a few flakes mixed in hitting the veluxes

JanuarySnowstor

Tomorrow is not without interest as a band of sleet and snow could move South over the country. Looks to be quite light and patchy but HAS potential to upgrade

downwiththatsor

http://www.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/b/4/8/3/a/549cd9cba384b.gif

Looks like the eastern 2/3 of the country getting the precipitation on the hirlam for 3pm tomorrow.
Hopefully a few rogue showers down the west coast after dark as well.

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Tomorrow is not without interest as a band of sleet and snow could move South over the country. Looks to be quite light and patchy but HAS potential to upgrade

eastmayo

Snowing here now near knock airport.

icesnowfrost

I'm at the Co louth mountain range no snow. Yet

Macy0161

Supercell wrote: »

Any reports from the Wicklow mountain area?

Sleety rain near Roundwood at approx 230m asl. Can see a fair way up, and no sign of a snow line. Cloud low enough so can't see too high at the moment.

Supercell

Macy0161 wrote: »

Sleety rain near Roundwood at approx 230m asl. Can see a fair way up, and no sign of a snow line. Cloud low enough so can't see too high at the moment.

Cheers, I reckon you might seem some lying snow in the next 24-36 hours there.

nerrad1983

Just leaving cavan town now and it's sleat that's falling, it is v cold.

arctictree

2.9c here (nr. Roundwood) with sleety rain @ 250m asl.

sunbabe08

any one down in killarney direction? the mountains surrounding the town look stunning when there's snow

Gee_G

Snowing in Cavan for the last hour I'd say, everywhere is so wet though it just looks miserable

q85dw7osi4lebg

Such a waste of beautiful precipitation today

snaps

No waste here in southern poland. Had about 10-15cm so far today! And still bucketing down!

snaps

snaps wrote: »

No waste here in southern poland. Had about 10-15cm so far today! And still bucketing down!

Getting dark now, but attached a photo from my mobile.

Schadenfreudia

Raining here, temp between 3 and 4 degrees all morning, cloud down to about 600m and no sign of anything wintery at that elevation.

According to WU it's snowing over a fairly large area from Westport and Castlebar across much of Mayo over to Cavan Town, all over counties Leitrim, Longford - as far south as Mullingar and north into the southern part of Fermanagh.

Temperatures would indicate that at low levels it's of the non-stick variety but there must be many raised areas getting a covering,

HighLine

Alot of cross posting between this thread and the other... maybe an idea to stick to one for current events?

DOCARCH

Supercell wrote: »

Any reports from the Wicklow mountain area? Temps here are too high for wintry precip at the moment here but maybe a couple of hundred meters up its different?

Heavy snow falling at the gates to Kippure about half an hour ago...

weatherfiend

DOCARCH wrote: »

Heavy snow falling at the gates to Kippure about half an hour ago...

It's amazing how localised weather can be. I'm at the base of 3 rock, not that far away though lower I grant you and we've had horrible, really heavy, blobby rain for hours - its ever so slightly sleety but nothing close to your photo Docarch. Here it's depressing

Gonzo

sleety rain here, miserable and only 2C, this was so close to being a snow event. Meanwhile Knock is reporting moderate rain at 0C and Cork/Kerry is 10-12C

numilus cimbus

@weatherfiend it's probably wet snow very near where you are,the change from rain to sleet to snow would be very quick,literally within quarterof a mile climbing
nature is amazing,I reckon the snow line might drop to your level
Wouldn't surprise me if the snow at the Kippure gate is a foot deep by tomorrow evening too

@Docarch thanks for the photo
Might risk heading down N11 later and on up to the military road I suspect by then the area above glenmalure to be PLASTERED
In fact we might meet the snow not far above Kilmacanogue

Fitzo

Sleety snow in sligo.

red_bairn

Played footie out in the pi$$.

icesnowfrost

Up slieve foy Co louth today.no snow up to 350asl up just sleety rain, then up at 450asl bang, snow started heavy. only stayed at the top for 15 min couldn't see more that 20 feet ahead and wind chill was savage. More pics later

AnotherYear

Well jel

JCX BXC

<snip> It looks like snow/sleet/hail showers are possible here in west Munster tonight, as well as Connacht and Ulster.

From Met Eireann

Tonight there will be scattered rain, hail or sleet showers mainly over the north and west. There is the risk of snow showers over higher ground. It will become mostly dry and cold elsewhere with good clear spells. Moderate northerly winds will fall light for a time with mist or fog patches forming but winds become moderate westerly by morning. Lowest temperatures of -2 to +3 degrees, coldest in the east and north with widespread frost and icy stretches.

For the next few days, Cold Days and nights may lead to a late white christmas:P

MidMan25

Exactly what we needed. Thanks

DIF

I'm laughing at Met Eireann's forecast for Munster as of 16.30 this evening... "Breezy this evening but largely dry, with patchy light rain dying out. Tonight will be cold with clear spells and scattered showers of rain and hail."

I'm in Cork and it's turning into a bit of wild wind evening... so 'breezy' a tree has blown down a tree onto the M8 near Glanmire.

From Twitter:AA Roadwatch @aaroadwatch · 31m 31 minutes ago
CORK: There are reports of a tree on the M8 Dublin/ Cork Rd at J18 Glanmire. Take care on approach. http://TheAA.ie/Roadwatch

q85dw7osi4lebg

Not that it affects us, but given it's only 100 miles away or so - Liverpool Airport has about 4cm of lying snow on the runways.