The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Baggy Trousers

horsefarm wrote: »

The sense on deja vu when reading their forecasts was a bit of a giveaway for me

I never heard of Irish Weather Online either. I just get my weather from Boards (MT daily) and Met.ie

Clonmel1000

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

ok folks, I was sitting here doing the last of my Christmas shopping list browsing through the threads. I have abandoned shopping list. I now have six snow sleds, six snow boots, torches batteries water shovels extra goodies and a tank full of optimism on my list. hope im not being too premature but listening to you folks is getting me quite excited. only have the basics in model watching so cheers folks for keeping us all informed as we enter the heart of winter.

Are you for real?

Tactical

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Are you for real?

Probably. Have you seen the thread title?

cherryghost

Sweating on 12Z at the moment...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

cherryghost wrote: »

Sweating on 12Z at the moment...

It goes so damn slow !

kingshankly

Aerohead wrote: »

No mention anywhere in that article about MT, it quotes Accu Weather and Peter O'Donnell from Irish Weather Online.

Should leave the O out of your username
Sorry couldn't resist

maquiladora

Possible Christmas Eve snow for the northwest on the 12Z GFS P.

maquiladora

But...... that's about as good as it gets on the GFS and GFS P.

No FI snowfests on offer today.

Tabnabs

This time next week so

maquiladora

Tabnabs wrote: »

This time next week so

Yep!...but maybe not in Ireland though

elecktras weather bomb

@ Clonmel 1000. yep . I am 100% prime time for real. ....... I may have to even drive into the west if I cant get it here lol. actually my fascination with snow could take me anywhere. the father in law is an electrician I made him double check the security lights today and bought a solar lampost as we don't have any here, now if that's not snow lovers appreciation, I don't know what is.ps the family and extended family friends think I am "one flew over the cuckoos nest" when it comes to any weather extremes. lol

Pa ElGrande

They are forecasting a major snow storm in the North East United States. So you may want to pay attention to forecasts if you are travelling in that region.

Holiday Travel Forecast: Major Christmas Eve Winter Storm to Impact Millions in Midwest, East - -> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-travel-snowstorm-wind/39163954

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPdcFbbpaD4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DrZlaI9VIg

The Cleveland Superbomb, January 1978 - -> http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2045627_2045629_2045623,00.html

M.T. Cranium

I think that the predictions are more for snow in the Great Lakes snow belt areas than the northeastern states eastern seaboard cities where it seems likely to remain a bit above freezing to the 27th and then turn quite cold.

As to Ireland's prospects, the 12z runs are generally inconclusive especially when you look at the GFS spread of perturbations, they are all over the place for the 27th and 28th. The ECM is saying basically "rather cold over 25th-26th, could see a minor warming on 27th then look out" which is not really a strong enough signal for me to conclude that wintry cold or snow are either ruled out or definitely on, we are now at that point where it could go either way with about equal chances, and if I add in the input of the GEM that only underscores that conclusion.

We're all hostages to the model uncertainty here and nobody really knows which way this is going to go. It does seem rather inevitable that cold will win long-term in this battle, the Atlantic is playing from behind in terms of calendar date, hemispheric patterns and probability. If it stayed mild now to mid-February with only minor cold episodes, it would be defying all three of those bad omens and a sort of 2012 redux in terms of close but no cigar being the likely assessment (recall that Britain got into cold synoptics for about 2-3 weeks there).

Just as possible that cold will overwhelm this flabby pattern shown on several models for 27th and prove hard to remove once in control.

hawkwing

The best we can hope for now is that Gerry Murphy has 2 weeks off after tonight and Evelyn has no Xmas leave.After that maybe if people pool together and pay for Keith Barry to do some of his "magic"!
Even a couple of heavy snow showers whether it lasted or not would make the holidays seasonal and would suffice as several christmases go by without even that(and there is still every chance of that happening on some of the days). January will do it's own thing and most are back working so it's not the same then.

legomaniac

Hi all

I am new to boards but have been lurking for a few weeks now. The talk about possible snow has gottem me and the family very excited. I am going to order a sled as I think that the trend appears to be a major snowfall at some stage in the next ten days. I enjoy reading the forescasts on here and just from following the threads have started to sort of understand the basics about charts etc. One thing, does M.T work for Met Eireann as his forecasts are often quite different to what we see on the TV. His alert yesterday morning got us all in the spirit....I am having family over for Christmas nad have told them to bring warm clothes and boots as I live in a hilly area Donegal. The last major fall here was 27th Decmebr 2000. It was 25cm deep and it lasted for several days. The big freeze of 2010 wasnt noteworthy for snow depths here, only about 4cm but it was extremely cold... Castlederg only a few miles away got below -18!

Anyway I am involved in local civil defense and will be putting the snowstorm to the top of our final meeting's agenda tomorrow evening. We have a number of elderly people in some remote areas around here. So just to clarify the snowstorm will hit the 27th?

Bejubby

legomaniac wrote: »

Hi all

I am new to boards but have been lurking for a few weeks now. The talk about possible snow has gottem me and the family very excited. I am going to order a sled as I think that the trend appears to be a major snowfall at some stage in the next ten days. I enjoy reading the forescasts on here and just from following the threads have started to sort of understand the basics about charts etc. One thing, does M.T work for Met Eireann as his forecasts are often quite different to what we see on the TV. His alert yesterday morning got us all in the spirit....I am having family over for Christmas nad have told them to bring warm clothes and boots as I live in a hilly area Donegal. The last major fall here was 27th Decmebr 2000. It was 25cm deep and it lasted for several days. The big freeze of 2010 wasnt noteworthy for snow depths here, only about 4cm but it was extremely cold... Castlederg only a few miles away got below -18!

Anyway I am involved in local civil defense and will be putting the snowstorm to the top of our final meeting's agenda tomorrow evening. We have a number of elderly people in some remote areas around here. So just to clarify the snowstorm will hit the 27th?

Howya and welcome.
Good to see sombody doing good work.

Youll have to stay tuned to the forecasts for the next few days and thats all u can do.

Speak Now

legomaniac wrote: »

Hi all

I am new to boards but have been lurking for a few weeks now. The talk about possible snow has gottem me and the family very excited. I am going to order a sled as I think that the trend appears to be a major snowfall at some stage in the next ten days. I enjoy reading the forescasts on here and just from following the threads have started to sort of understand the basics about charts etc. One thing, does M.T work for Met Eireann as his forecasts are often quite different to what we see on the TV. His alert yesterday morning got us all in the spirit....I am having family over for Christmas nad have told them to bring warm clothes and boots as I live in a hilly area Donegal. The last major fall here was 27th Decmebr 2000. It was 25cm deep and it lasted for several days. The big freeze of 2010 wasnt noteworthy for snow depths here, only about 4cm but it was extremely cold... Castlederg only a few miles away got below -18!

Anyway I am involved in local civil defense and will be putting the snowstorm to the top of our final meeting's agenda tomorrow evening. We have a number of elderly people in some remote areas around here. So just to clarify the snowstorm will hit the 27th?

Not sure if you're serious but 27th is 9 days away, fantasy Island even it models were showing a snow storm which they're not.

vistafinder

legomaniac wrote: »

Hi all

I am new to boards but have been lurking for a few weeks now. The talk about possible snow has gottem me and the family very excited. I am going to order a sled as I think that the trend appears to be a major snowfall at some stage in the next ten days. I enjoy reading the forescasts on here and just from following the threads have started to sort of understand the basics about charts etc. One thing, does M.T work for Met Eireann as his forecasts are often quite different to what we see on the TV. His alert yesterday morning got us all in the spirit....I am having family over for Christmas nad have told them to bring warm clothes and boots as I live in a hilly area Donegal. The last major fall here was 27th Decmebr 2000. It was 25cm deep and it lasted for several days. The big freeze of 2010 wasnt noteworthy for snow depths here, only about 4cm but it was extremely cold... Castlederg only a few miles away got below -18!

Anyway I am involved in local civil defense and will be putting the snowstorm to the top of our final meeting's agenda tomorrow evening. We have a number of elderly people in some remote areas around here. So just to clarify the snowstorm will hit the 27th?

Oh Lord!

Welcome to boards.

1. The most important rule never belive a forecast that far away.
2. Never listen to the cold rampers they think it can snow all year long
3. Never ever tell family and friends! Trust me on this one...
4. MT gives a forecast on what he sees on the models at that time but models change. Some people read his forecast and something changes on the models and people start saying but but but Mt said....
5. The sled


I hope MT is right I love snow and A Happy snowy Christmas to you.

Clonmel1000

Methinks there is a bit of wumming going on here.....

davidsr20

So were looking 50/50 at the moment so and i was convinced mt was getting excited yesterday too
I think 2010 was a once off

Birdnuts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

and a sort of 2012 redux in terms of close but no cigar being the likely assessment (recall that Britain got into cold synoptics for about 2-3 weeks there).

.

I remember that well - the fun and games got as far as the Irish Sea but never pushed in, leading to emotional meltdown among the coldies here:o

Rock Lesnar

davidsr20 wrote: »

So were looking 50/50 at the moment so and i was convinced mt was getting excited yesterday too

My new method of thinking regarding snow is forget the ifs and maybes, and believe it when its falling, more exciting and no letdown

maquiladora

davidsr20 wrote: »

So were looking 50/50 at the moment so and i was convinced mt was getting excited yesterday too
I think 2010 was a once off

We're talking about potential events beyond 7-10 days. Certainly not as simple as 50/50. It's just too early to be looking at things in detail. There are hints of possibilities and it will become clearer as the days go by if those chances are increasing or decreasing.

2010 was very rare in terms of the depth of the cold but in terms of snowfall it didn't break any of the 1961 records at any Met Eireann station. So certainly not a once off in terms of snow records.

Slashermcguirk

40cm of snow in the garden here in Dublin on Christmas Day 2010, will never forget it. Would love to see even a few cms next week

maquiladora wrote: »

We're talking about potential events beyond 7-10 days. Certainly not as simple as 50/50. It's just too early to be looking at things in detail. There are hints of possibilities and it will become clearer as the days go by if those chances are increasing or decreasing.

2010 was very rare in terms of the depth of the cold but in terms of snowfall it didn't break any of the 1961 records at any Met Eireann station. So certainly not a once off in terms of snow records.

Pwindedd

vistafinder wrote: »

Oh Lord!

Welcome to boards.

1. The most important rule never belive a forecast that far away.
2. Never listen to the cold rampers they think it can snow all year long
3. Never ever tell family and friends! Trust me on this one...
4. MT gives a forecast on what he sees on the models at that time but models change. Some people read his forecast and something changes on the models and people start saying but but but Mt said....
5. The sled


I hope MT is right I love snow and A Happy snowy Christmas to you.

If you take only one thing from this list of solid advice, it's no 3 - I beseech you, ignore this at your peril.

icesnowfrost

Not good at all from MT

munsterlegend

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Not good at all from MT

It could have been worse..still a possibility of cold weather post Christmas. A lot of uncertainty. Just saw this tweet from a UK met office employee which offers some hope even if for the UK.

fergieweather
W COUNTRY F'cast confidence good to Xmas Day but post-26th tricky. Expected colder than average to New Year. Periods of severe weather poss.
19/12/2014 08:19

maquiladora

ECM still looks interesting in the far reaches of FI. GFS definitely looking not as interesting as a couple of days ago.

numilus cimbus

munsterlegend wrote: »

It could have been worse..still a possibility of cold weather post Christmas. A lot of uncertainty. Just saw this tweet from a UK met office employee which offers some hope even if for the UK.

fergieweather
W COUNTRY F'cast confidence good to Xmas Day but post-26th tricky. Expected colder than average to New Year. Periods of severe weather poss.

That's being blown out of proportion by people on netweather desperately looking for hints of snow.
In met speak,colder than average does not mean cold enough for snow.
His next tweet mentions storms ie wind and rain,which is the periods of severe weather he's talking about.
So please don't be disappointed

HighLine

If ever there was reason and evidence to completely ignore long range forecasting - it would be the justified difficulty forecasters are having with the medium to short term charts this past week.