The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Baggy Trousers

Any snow on the hills over Christmas folks i.e. above 600m?

maquiladora

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Any snow on the hills over Christmas folks i.e. above 600m?

Too early to say, but looks possible between Christmas and New Years.

maquiladora

HighLine wrote: »

If ever there was reason and evidence to completely ignore long range forecasting - it would be the justified difficulty forecasters are having with the medium to short term charts this past week.

If we do end up with a cold spell after Christmas then we'll be able to look back and see how it was telegraphed long in advance by the models.

There have been numerous FI cold spells that never materialized into real cold spells. But there has never been a cold spell that wasn't picked up at medium-long range by the models, so for that reason alone it doesn't make any sense to ignore things.

Forecasting deals in probabilities not absolutes.

HighLine

maquiladora wrote: »

If we do end up with a cold spell after Christmas then we'll be able to look back and see how it was telegraphed long in advance by the models.

There have been numerous FI cold spells that never materialized into real cold spells. But there has never been a cold spell that wasn't picked up at medium-long range by the models, so for that reason alone it doesn't make any sense to ignore things.

Forecasting deals in probabilities not absolutes.

Just to be clear - when I said "long range forecasting", I was referring to the likes of "It should snow mid month in February" (Stated in October)

maquiladora

HighLine wrote: »

Just to be clear - when I said "long range forecasting", I was referring to the likes of "It should snow mid month in February" (Stated in October)

Fair enough. I agree with you there!

doulikeit

MTs post this morning pizzed all over my lovely little parade

munsterlegend

doulikeit wrote: »

MTs post this morning pizzed all over my lovely little parade

Not sure why..he still said its 50/50. It was never written in stone on any of his forecasts.

doulikeit

munsterlegend wrote: »

Not sure why..he still said its 50/50. It was never written in stone on any of his forecasts.

thanks all happy again

davidsr20

munsterlegend wrote: »

Not sure why..he still said its 50/50. It was never written in stone on any of his forecasts.

I think we all got a bit excited when he mentioned 1963 the other day.

numilus cimbus

HighLine wrote: »

If ever there was reason and evidence to completely ignore long range forecasting - it would be the justified difficulty forecasters are having with the medium to short term charts this past week.

Not really
As Maq said forecasters continuously look at up to 10 days
Met Eireann don't publish their thoughts beyond 5 days usually precisely for the reason that they are realistic and know probabilities in most cases drop like a stone beyond then so no sense in alarming the masses

Mt and others here hopecast a lot with FI charts because that's what the crowd here want
So as long as people can decode that,then there's no problem, no disappointment
Most can't though

I do wish he'd wait before putting snow chances into forecasts though
Surely that lesson is there from the myriads of threads in this place where snow hopes are risen only to be dashed

HighLine

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Not really
As Maq said forecasters continuously look at up to 10 days
Met Eireann don't publish their thoughts beyond 5 days usually precisely for the reason that they are realistic and know probabilities in most cases drop like a stone beyond then so no sense in alarming the masses

Mt and others here hopecast a lot with FI charts because that's what the crowd here want
So as long as people can decode that,then there's no problem, no disappointment
Most can't though

I do wish he'd wait before putting snow chances into forecasts though
Surely that lesson is there from the myriads of threads in this place where snow hopes are risen only to be dashed

No, really. And as I said above.. I was referring to...

HighLine wrote: »

Just to be clear - when I said "long range forecasting", I was referring to the likes of "It should snow mid month in February" (Stated in October)

numilus cimbus

HighLine wrote: »

No, really. And as I said above.. I was referring to...

ah sorry,I'm typing and reading on a phone and spoke about the models bit only
The point stands I think though regarding putting too much sted in FI in what is otherwise a stellar day to day job by Mt here,it's a playing to the crowd that departs from the purity of the science and I'm afraid It happens in all Internet weather fora
Net weather for example is full of if this does that and that does this we'll have snow
That's lovely,quite exciting if there's a realistic hope and the theory is all fascinating but it's not forecasting
But anyhow I'll say no more on that front

Scubadevils

I've been focusing way too much on will it or won't it snow on Christmas day and any of the dips in that prospect have left me feeling disappointed, especially when it was looking quite likely for a bit. Having followed these threads on various forums for 10 years now :eek:, I think I've finally grasped the notion of not following each model run as gospel, or at least reading the comments of those that better understand the runs here and on NW etc and taking them as gospel - the dominant theme for quite a while now has been to look towards the end of the year and into the beginning of 2015 for some cold - those that have been saying that are sticking to that and any notion of snow before then was certainly for me just so that I could enjoy Christmas even more!

So I'm now going to look forward to a somewhat seasonal Christmas day - one that looks likely to involve some nice frost to start, sunshine and cold... but then move on to eating, drinking and getting fired up for some serious cold later in the month... what better timing to be on holidays in the run up to something potentially more significant?!

Never forget 2010 though in terms of more recent snow events... took this shot when I got in the car Christmas morning.

AnotherYear

Ian Fergusson BBC weatherman for whoever is interested
"An awful lot of focus here on how pronounced any cold might be.... but arguably, one of the most eye-catching forecast issues amongst ensembles is one of possible explosive cyclogenesis (vast majority of EC-EPS members from 00z suite producing lows from Boxing Day onwards, some very deep indeed, and all considered likely to entrain sub-zero theta-w irrespective of track). So, for us it's a story of potentially bad weather across a fair scope of outcomes (gales/severe gales/heavy rain/snow) rather than a myopic focus solely on snow. Whilst I appreciate some people merely seek the latter to the exclusion of all else, there is a resultant risk of not seeing the woods for the trees in terms of the potential (still highly uncertain) evolutions and how these might provide a very interesting / volatile period meteorologically, irrespective of how cold it proves."

Ties in MT's thoughts of possible stormy weather. Could be a nice snow event for those on the Northern edge if it came off. Interesting times ahead

munsterlegend

numilus cimbus wrote: »

That's being blown out of proportion by people on netweather desperately looking for hints of snow.
In met speak,colder than average does not mean cold enough for snow.
His next tweet mentions storms ie wind and rain,which is the periods of severe weather he's talking about.
So please don't be disappointed

Colder than average in december/January certainly increases the chances of wintry precipitation. its better than a forecast of above average temps. the met office are looking out for deep areas of low pressure from what i understand.

storms can lead to snow falling not just rain though for this part of the world it is unusual.

maquiladora

Latest UK Met Office extended forecast paints a battleground picture for the post-Christmas Day period : areas of low pressure clashing with colder air, with areas further north and on high ground obviously getting the better chance in the rain/snow divide but it's far too early to be looking at in detail, and it's the detail that would make all the difference. Could make for a very interesting mix of weather. Something to keep an eye on at least.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:

A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.

AnotherYear

I'd take that Maq to be fair. Pretty much what Ian Fergusson said, Plus I'm in Donegal so good imby potential lol

numilus cimbus

The eventul track of any storms will be fascinating but potentially disappointing
If they track say into South wales,southern England,then it's game on for cold air advection into most of Ireland and wintry showers/snow in the windward areas
Track into Ireland,then get out the sand bags with back edge snow only in flakey areas and high on the hills

It's probable in my opinion that they may trend further south
Missing us entirely would be ideal from a coldie point of view as to avoid a sloppy rainy wintry mix mess,you do need to drag that cold air South,preferably the stuff way due north or near northern Scandinavia

Pangea

The ground was white here earlier for a few minutes, from a shower of Hail.

legomaniac

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

icesnowfrost

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

Still early yet. The charts can change so quickly.

barney 20v

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

I'd consider it to be logical - candy FI charts does not a civil defence crisis make.
Waaaaaayyy to much faith placed in FI "forecasting" on here.
I love snow - but the carry on in here gets worse as the years go by !

LordNorbury

barney 20v wrote: »

I'd consider it to be logical - candy FI charts does not a civil defence crisis make.
Waaaaaayyy to much faith placed in FI "forecasting" on here.
I love snow - but the carry on in here gets worse as the years go by !

Ah relax, yeah it's a bit speculative but some people enjoy it!

barney 20v

LordNorbury wrote: »

Ah relax, yeah it's a bit speculative but some people enjoy it!

And some people go making plans with organisations for something that won't happen .... I enjoy seeing the spiral down of hope and clutching of straws ;-)
(I do enjoy snow also)
MT forecast in 2010 led me to getting snow tires and staying mobile ---- didn't but them 10/12 days out though !
Call me a snow veteran if you like, seen it all before on here! :-)

Dickie10

its giving 12 or 13 degress for next tuesday, could we be headed for the warmest ever xmas day? what is the record for this, perhaps could be a good bet this year

Storm 10

Dickie10 wrote: »

its giving 12 or 13 degress for next tuesday, could we be headed for the warmest ever xmas day? what is the record for this, perhaps could be a good bet this year

Temp drops from Wednesday so it will not be mild, ME are giving a bright cold Xmas day

cml387

legomaniac wrote: »

Beyond disappointed about the massive downgrade. Also, I mentioned the potential snow at the civil defence meeting but the others said that unless Met E call it then they pay no heed to other forecasts which is rather close minded of them but in this instance they were right.

Demonstrating the problem with using this forum as a reliable guide to weather.

It's a very reliable guide to what might be, but ME are not going to stick their necks out so far in advance.

Your colleagues are absolutely right to go by ME.

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

The ground was white here earlier for a few minutes, from a shower of Hail.

My first night back in Donegal and there's a roaring wind with hailstones smashing against the window, great to be home

M.T. Cranium

Kind of ridiculous to say that something completely unresolved was decided today by the advice of an agency that actually hasn't said anything yet one way or the other. I don't even understand any of the logic of that. We are still very much in the "either or" situation we have been in for three days with various models taking turns being on or off the boil (wrong metaphor but anyway).

The smart thing to do at this point is to be ready for possible disruption, when about half the available guidance suggests strong winter synoptics within seven or eight days. This latest 12z ECM run is not guaranteed to be right (or wrong) but bear in mind also there are not just two outcomes in play but three, one being mild returning, another significant wintry weather, and a third being something like continued cold dry from 26th on. That would be less disruptive but would require some advance planning by road agencies. My estimate is that the disruptive winter synoptics would be slightly more likely (40%) than the mild (30%) or the cold dry at 20%. That's based on a blend of the amount of supporting guidance and model reliability combined with trends over past three days.

This is a tough call for the models because the wave lengths have shortened to almost their shortest possible interval in the 3-6 day time scale and so small errors at days 4 or 5 get magnified rather quickly. In some ways the models would have less problems with an easterly and we all know how unreliable day 7-8 forecasts can be in advance of those events.

I don't believe this uncertainty will be resolved before Sunday, and it certainly isn't resolved today. When you have the two top models with verification stats that are really much more similar than different, showing entirely different patterns by day seven, and the supporting cast with yet different ideas, you have to conclude that the matter is unsettled and while anyone's hunch is as valid as the next person's, we are all dealing in hunches at this point.

I've been trying to assess what my own hunch would be, and why I hold to that. My conclusion is that by 27th-28th a different pattern than any current model depiction will actually materialize, namely a southward running storm track with higher pressure than shown emerging to the northwest of Ireland. This would bring east to northeast winds in rather quickly. I don't think there will be even a ghost of the intense storm shown on the GFS, just a fast-moving southward dropping trough that only slows down once into Biscay. Neither do I think the Atlantic storm will break through the block, here I think the GEM might have the best initial solution but I don't like its further solutions beyond day 8. We'll see if this is anywhere near correct, if it is, the weather will turn cold Christmas Eve and stay cold all the way through with occasional outbreaks of snow, some of them frontal and some of them east coast streamers. There would then be a slight thaw after New Years and a big storm around 4-6 January.

elecktras weather bomb

DEAR MT ,that's the nicest bed time story ever. I know POSSIBLE! is as huge word here. very exciting times indeed . cheers.