The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

numilus cimbus

icesnowfrost wrote: »

this winter so is 100 times better than last winter. we still have jan,feb and dare i say it march. alot can happen. also lets see wat comes off of the stratospheric warming thats taken place. i dont fully understand it but there is a lot of stratospheric warming at the min. it is similar to the 2010 strat warming that helped us out with the snow and cold we ended up getting.
from wat i understand wen there is stratospheric warming cold cold weather normally comes our way 1 week to 2 weeks later.
correct me if im wrong anyone

The strat warm might equally send a lobe of vortex into Greece,it's an unknown hope
But it is a hope
The most interesting thing about this winter from a model point of view is how early fantasy island starts,it's as little as 4 days on a regular basis from what I can see,and low pressures that do appear can go anywhere or be any size completely different to what was modeled 5 days prior
That suggests to me that things could turn very very quickly
So keep the hope

That said,this winter so far isn't that dissimilar to last years except it's more palatable as there's less rain or it feels that way and i suppose there's been a few weak wet snows so far
Nothing exciting though YET

JanuarySnowstor

Well from a cold point of view things couldn't be worse.
Disappointing after so much talk of extremes by some in NW.

Stuart aka GP is a huge loss as even though he was cold biased he never let it blind a forecast.
Steve Murray has really ramped this Winter along with others.
Fair play to them for having a go.....but at this stage it would be nice to see them admit they got it wrong.
In fact so wrong is their forecast that the complete opposite has occurred sofar.
Of course chances of a cold spell still exist and Winter is far from over but a cold end to January shouldn't save a forecast.

One thing that the Met , both here and in UK, always bear in mind is that the over riding climate is mild and 9 times out of 10 will be the correct call.

Goodbye 2010, you were special and a memory that will live long in our hearts :-)

Pwindedd

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Goodbye 2010, you were special and a memory that will live long in our hearts :-)

We were warned it was a once in a lifetime event - did we listen? ...did we feck!

pistolpetes11

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well from a cold point of view things couldn't be worse.
Disappointing after so much talk of extremes by some in NW.

Stuart aka GP is a huge loss as even though he was cold biased he never let it blind a forecast.
Steve Murray has really ramped this Winter along with others.
Fair play to them for having a go.....but at this stage it would be nice to see them admit they got it wrong.
In fact so wrong is their forecast that the complete opposite has occurred sofar.
Of course chances of a cold spell still exist and Winter is far from over but a cold end to January shouldn't save a forecast.

One thing that the Met , both here and in UK, always bear in mind is that the over riding climate is mild and 9 times out of 10 will be the correct call.

Goodbye 2010, you were special and a memory that will live long in our hearts :-)

Firstly :
What has NW or any of its posters to do with Anything that's being posted here ?

Secondly :
Did I miss your winter LRF ? If not,there is no point giving out about ones that don't match you expectations , after all it's only a discussion forum with Amuatuers having a stab at how they think things may play out.

AnotherYear

Losing the will to live with all of these Winters over etc posts.It's still December and no one has a crystal ball to see what's in store for the next two months.

Happily set up a Winter is over thread and dazzle us with your reasoning to conclude so but keep this thread for what it's intended for. Some of us are bored explaining the same simple thing over and over.

numilus cimbus

There are a few truisms here
Models are all over the place pinning details down but there is no sign of any proper cold coming in the next few weeks
By proper cold I mean something from the east or northeast
Any forecaster employed as a forecaster will tell you that
A lot of forecasting is based on intuition and stuff like what has this done before so we're certainly looking at february before theres a pattern change especially if the latest strat warming modeling proves true,ie that its not going to warm at all
I see no other solution when especially high pressure is also threatening Europe
Thats my latest view based on what we're seeing
February is well capable of week long snowy spells as is march

After that Summer please

United road

AnotherYear wrote: »

Losing the will to live with all of these Winters over etc posts.It's still December and no one has a crystal ball to see what's in store for the next two months.

Happily set up a Winter is over thread and dazzle us with your reasoning to conclude so but keep this thread for what it's intended for. Some of us are bored explaining the same simple thing over and over.

What exactly are you bored explaing over and over???????
This thread is there to do just that, 56 posts to your name, i very much doubt you are explaining anything over and over.

AnotherYear

United road wrote: »

What exactly are you bored explaing over and over???????
This thread is there to do just that, 56 posts to your name, i very much doubt you are explaining anything over and over.

If you can follow basic English you would know from that post you quoted. Thanks for further cementing that point. 56 posts lol, 42 of yours, more's the pity. Tragic

numilus cimbus

Sigh, I think we know 'coldies' go mad when driven from alternate reality
So to appease,here's a tweet from a meteorologist-

Derek Brockway (@DerekTheWeather) tweeted at 10:08 AM on Wed, Dec 31, 2014:
@MattHugo81 I bet you and many others would like this to come true early February http://t.co/fpctupde79
(https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/550231902431739904?s=03)

I seem unable to post pics yet but it's pretty and it's the cfs February, hope it's not another mirage

Lumi

United road wrote: »

What exactly are you bored explaing over and over???????
This thread is there to do just that, 56 posts to your name, i very much doubt you are explaining anything over and over.

AnotherYear wrote: »

If you can follow basic English you would know from that post you quoted. Thanks for further cementing that point. 56 posts lol, 42 of yours, more's the pity. Tragic

Stick to discussing the weather and cut out the personal attacks !

Strangegravy

I'm an all in one, coldie, warmie, windie, weather extremie myself, are there many of us here?

There seems to be great "differences of opinion" between people who give up on winter if we don't get snow around Christmas, and those diehards who hold out until early April! (Personally around end of Feb I start to crave warmer weather)

If your type of weather isn't happening, don't bother posting negative stuff just for the sake of it, doesn't help anyone and isn't informative. If you back it up with charts or info or something then at least people will see where you're coming from, and you won't come off as just a negative Nancy.

Same goes for the cold extremists, back up your optimism with info and keep us all dreaming for another couple of months.

Everyone's entitled to air their views, just keep it light guys and remember it's only the weather, we can't control it and ANYTHING is possible, and don't believe the charts past 4 - 5 days, no one knows anything for definite past that timeframe, not even the professionals for all their access to supercomputers and hi res models.

Everyone's views welcome here, oh, except Drizzlies..... I hate those guys. ;-)

vistafinder

A least Madden and the rags got it wrong. No matter what happens from now on they wont be right.

But there it a big difference between them and an amateur making a long range forecast. Its a hobby.

I think its good that humans cant predict long range forecasts. Why do we have to. With all the super computers and science and billions spent. I like to think mother nature is still the boss. i hope it stays that way.

A week to 10 days is enough for me.

Still time for snow but when march comes around I start thinking about spring days.

kstand

vistafinder wrote: »

A least Madden and the rags got it wrong. No matter what happens from now on they wont be right.

But there it a big difference between them and an amateur making a long range forecast. Its a hobby.

I think its good that humans cant predict long range forecasts. Why do we have to. With all the super computers and science and billions spent. I like to think mother nature is still the boss. i hope it stays that way.

A week to 10 days is enough for me.

Still time for snow but when march comes around I start thinking about spring days.

Whatever about Madden, the Indo in particular has exposed itself as little more than a tabloid rag with editors allowing some of the recent stories to be published - most notably about the "beat from the East" as if it was some actual real phenomenon and more recently, the "polar vortex" story as if that was in itself something very physical that was going to come and engulf the country in the same way as any of the Biblical plagues were supposed to have done in ancient Egypt.

vistafinder

kstand wrote: »

Whatever about Madden, the Indo in particular has exposed itself as little more than a tabloid rag with editors allowing some of the recent stories to be published - most notably about the "beat from the East" as if it was some actual real phenomenon and more recently, the "polar vortex" story as if that was in itself something very physical that was going to come and engulf the country in the same way as any of the Biblical plagues were supposed to have done in ancient Egypt.

He He! Dont forget weather bombs. I saw Daithi O Se and Maura on the today show before Christmas telling us did we know there was a weather bomb hapening at the moment. The are all jumping on this weather thing at the moment.

Gonzo

I think the reason many coldies freak out when there is still no snow after christmas is because New year's eve is the half way point of proper winter and with nothing to show so far and only 6 weeks left of real winter, people start to worry particularly when the charts are looking so bad for the next few weeks with no easterly in sight anywhere. We just have to live on the hope that something will change by February.

Snow in March is generally useless as it falls at night and melts by noon unless there is some exceptional cold moving about.

MidMan25

Gonzo wrote: »

I think the reason many coldies freak out when there is still no snow after christmas is because New year's eve is the half way point of proper winter and with nothing to show so far and only 6 weeks left of real winter, people start to worry particularly when the charts are looking so bad for the next few weeks with no easterly in sight anywhere. We just have to live on the hope that something will change by February.

Snow in March is generally useless as it falls at night and melts by noon unless there is some exceptional cold moving about.

It's 8 and a half weeks until the end of February

Strangegravy

Gonzo wrote: »

I think the reason many coldies freak out when there is still no snow after christmas is because New year's eve is the half way point of proper winter and with nothing to show so far and only 6 weeks left of real winter, people start to worry particularly when the charts are looking so bad for the next few weeks with no easterly in sight anywhere.

Yeah, I get where you're coming from, but it's funny the way at this stage we've all excepted that any glorious North Easterly showing past 144hrs on the charts, is sadly just FI, and 75% of the time won't come to pass.

But then when we see a loop of Atlantic lows past 144hrs people freak out and proclaim winter is over, where in reality, it's just the same, it's still FI and could change over the next few chart runs.

I think that's why the UKMO only goes to 144hrs, to stem the tide of craziness that can come with extreme FI charts.

I love looking at the FI charts and their possibilities, but I don't believe for one second that's what will happen!

AnotherYear

Yellow wind warning from met.ie
STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Wexford, Wicklow, Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford
Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/h with gusts of 90 to 110 km/h later on Thursday morning and will continue until later in the evening.

Issued:Wednesday 31 December 2014 12:00
Valid:Thursday 01 January 2015 09:00 to Thursday 01 January 2015 21:00

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Strangegravy wrote: »

Yeah, I get where you're coming from, but it's funny the way at this stage we've all excepted that any glorious North Easterly showing past 144hrs on the charts, is sadly just FI, and 75% of the time won't come to pass.

But then when we see a loop of Atlantic lows past 144hrs people freak out and proclaim winter is over, where in reality, it's just the same, it's still FI and could change over the next few chart runs.

I think that's why the UKMO only goes to 144hrs, to stem the tide of craziness that can come with extreme FI charts.

I love looking at the FI charts and their possibilities, but I don't believe for one second that's what will happen!

You are bang on there, we could see something totally different on the 12z runs today even

Keep the faith people

legomaniac

There is still 10 weeks left of winter and although it's looking unlikely we will see snow across ireland within the next 3 weeks based on the output to date, February can be the month to deliver. Also never write March off.. Early March 1995 brought 4 days of heavy snow to the north west and I remember to see it lying all day right on the coast in Sligo and being topped up by frequent heavy snow showers.

JanuarySnowstor

Some say there's hint of a scandi ridge on the ukmo at 144
Funny how we all see charts differently

I see a high cell over Eastern Europe and mild southwesterly over Scandi!!

youreadthat

legomaniac wrote: »

There is still 10 weeks left of winter and although it's looking unlikely we will see snow across ireland within the next 3 weeks based on the output to date, February can be the month to deliver. Also never write March off.. Early March 1995 brought 4 days of heavy snow to the north west and I remember to see it lying all day right on the coast in Sligo and being topped up by frequent heavy snow showers.

Hoping for a heavy snow in March, which is spring, to save winter is desperate stuff! :pac:

elecktras weather bomb

Happy new year all! forget the weather its a messy night out there in general. stay safe folks. here is to some memorable weather event for all in the new year good bad or indifferent. cheers!

Schadenfreudia

This isn't really a snowy post...but where has the current conditions thread disappeared to?!

I just entered my Jan high at 13.9C in the January contest about an hour ago and it's currently a windy 14.3C here.

I hope I am anomalous

Baggy Trousers

Someone please say something to ramp this thread up. All I see outside is wind and driving rain with mild temperatures...boring!

icesnowfrost

still a bit to far out but this is the best of anything anytime soon for some cold but its only north westerly. need a good north or north east

icesnowfrost

just out of interest. the temps at the min.

Lumi

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

This isn't really a snowy post...but where has the current conditions thread disappeared to?!

Current Conditions January 2015

JanuarySnowstor

Have records been broken today ?
14c widely even at 7 p
Did anyone hit 15??

Schadenfreudia

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Have records been broken today ?
14c widely even at 7 p
Did anyone hit 15??

Yes! Check
Current Conditions January 2015