The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

sunbabe08

i'm seeing the wrong stuff coming down here in cork city stupid rain

snaps

Busy morning for me, desperately clearing last few days snow away before the next lot arrives in a few hours! About 20-25cms.

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

there's no denying that this is yet another crap winter so far which has delivered nothing so far and the outlook seems bleak (from a cold, snowy perspective) with plenty of straw clutching.

Well .......... at least it can't get any worse than this!!
This has to be the most zonal chart in meteorological history, this is so bad it actually brought a smile to my face!

Baggy Trousers

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Well .......... at least it can't get any worse than this!!
This has to be the most zonal chart in meteorological history, this is so bad it actually brought a smile to my face!

Sorry but what does "zonal" mean - it looks like periods of wind and rain (or storms) for a while?

legomaniac

This is shaping up to be one of the most boring winters in many years. Reminds me of those winters in 2002, 2003 & 2004 when nothing interesting happened. I know it's not the done thing in this forum to comment on the weather without backing up your views with a barrage of charts and data but I am fed up. Apart from 2 or 3 good frosts it's been a very sublime season so far. I know there's talk of stormy weather ahead but even that is beginning to look unlikely judging by the charts and the more expert than mine opinion on here.

icesnowfrost

legomaniac wrote: »

This is shaping up to be one of the most boring winters in many years. Reminds me of those winters in 2002, 2003 & 2004 when nothing interesting happened. I know it's not the done thing in this forum to comment on the weather without backing up your views with a barrage of charts and data but I am fed up. Apart from 2 or 3 good frosts it's been a very sublime season so far. I know there's talk of stormy weather ahead but even that is beginning to look unlikely judging by the charts and the more expert than mine opinion on here.

Were u not in ireland last winter? This winter is 100 times better than last year. Relax, there is plenty of this winter left and at the min there are signs it could get colder and maybe snowy mid to late jan. HOLD FIRE ffs

Dickie10

when would most of you guys that watch weather patterns in winter closely believe that winter loses its grip on the season would it be around february 15th or March 1st? or even later? if we dont get any snow or heavy frosts by the second week of feruary id get hard to see any major weather of cold variety comin

howlinwolf

just goes to show how mild and bland our weather is compared to other country's with similar latitude

Graces7

snaps wrote: »

Busy morning for me, desperately clearing last few days snow away before the next lot arrives in a few hours! About 20-25cms.

Love the cats!

Graces7

legomaniac wrote: »

This is shaping up to be one of the most boring winters in many years. Reminds me of those winters in 2002, 2003 & 2004 when nothing interesting happened. I know it's not the done thing in this forum to comment on the weather without backing up your views with a barrage of charts and data but I am fed up. Apart from 2 or 3 good frosts it's been a very sublime season so far. I know there's talk of stormy weather ahead but even that is beginning to look unlikely judging by the charts and the more expert than mine opinion on here.

You have a low boredom threshhold;) I was delighted yesterday to be able to do a little outside work clearing the garden and always plenty ;)o do indoors or out... What bores me is the no it wont yes it will news items! Getting stocked up ready for being cut off then nothing happening.. now they say next week so I need to get more coal in.. just in case... It really feels like spring out there.. birds singing...dont mind whatever happens myself now.. by all means snow...but no bordeom

Elmer Blooker

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Sorry but what does "zonal" mean - it looks like periods of wind and rain (or storms) for a while?

Yes, wind and rain. Zonal means a flat west to east airflow running parallel to lines of latitude. You can see on that chart a string of depressions all along the 60N line of latitude and high pressure, more or less all along the 40N line of latitude. Unfortunately its a rut thats very difficult to get out of.
We need to see a something like this, basically an "upside down" chart.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101130.gif

snaps

Graces7 wrote: »

Love the cats!

Bless them, I let them out of the chicken barn for a jog around outside while I cleared. Its not that cold here (-4) compared to last weeks -20. Will be clearing again tomorrow morning as we have had another 10cm or more the last 3 or 4 hours.

gugsy

M.T. Cranium wrote:

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... A volatile pattern is developing, and much colder air will be back for most of the weekend (around 2-5 C) although there may be a brief return to temperatures around 7 or 8 C as a weak warm sector races through. This pattern is looking fairly set on all models and looks like it might become colder as the following week develops. This may mean a rather unusual combination of strong westerly winds and snow showers in temperatures not much above freezing near sea level. We'll keep watching this develop and see if the details change, but the overall pattern looks both variable and quite cold beyond the weekend. Eventually, sharp frosts under more settled high pressure could return.

MT report on this weeks weather looks promising.

JCX BXC

Villain wrote: »

Madden has been spouting crap again like http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-weather-arctic-conditions-bring-4917588

No reason whatsoever to believe that is going to happen, just usual attention grabbing!

If anyone has read the previous articles about the worst winter in 60 years, then they will know that the man talks BS. The article is terrible anyway. There will probably not be any snow, I want there to be some but unless we get a hint of a possible cold front in the next week, chances are there is not gonna be any.

My favorite line from the article:

Met Eireann , which only forecasts several days ahead

Can anyone guess the annoying problem with that sentence?

numilus cimbus

gugsy wrote: »

MT report on this weeks weather looks promising.

Yeah, that cold air modeled to exit north America is the coldest I've ever seen and not even 4000 miles of Atlantic mixing could tame it It could mean very heavy snow showers, lightning the works in the western half of the country with the east envious
Cork would see loads

Ironically Madden would see it as proof of his forecast even though he's been saying it adinfinitum (stopped clock) and he'd happily ignore the fact it's from the west being the away with the fairys type he is

Baggy Trousers

numilus cimbus wrote: »

Yeah, that cold air modeled to exit north America is the coldest I've ever seen and not even 4000 miles of Atlantic mixing could tame it It could mean very heavy snow showers, lightning the works in the western half of the country with the east envious
Cork would see loads

Are you serious??? :eek: When could that be?

numilus cimbus

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Are you serious??? :eek: When could that be?

oh it's in FI territory still so may never happen, but I'd fully expect a direct flow of say -40 850 temps to reach Ireland still below -10 and with that kind of sea track, a meteorologist's dream fetch
But relax it's a comment, I'll believe it when I see it

Gonzo

cold systems from the Atlantic are still useless tho as we need an east or north-east feed to bring those snow trains into Dublin and leinster. An atlantic cold system would produce not much more than sunny skies and clear, frosty skies for us in the east.

icesnowfrost

simon keeling gave a good forecast tonight. gives some hope.


http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv.htm

LordNorbury

Gonzo wrote: »

cold systems from the Atlantic are still useless tho as we need an east or north-east feed to bring those snow trains into Dublin and leinster. An atlantic cold system would produce not much more than sunny skies and clear, frosty skies for us in the east.

Wasn't that huge freeze back in the mid 80's an Atlantic cold system? I'm not a weather expert but I'm sure I heard that somewhere?

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

cold systems from the Atlantic are still useless tho as we need an east or north-east feed to bring those snow trains into Dublin and leinster. An atlantic cold system would produce not much more than sunny skies and clear, frosty skies for us in the east.

Had a day of this under a such a system last Feb (not my pic but taken locally).



Not epic by any means, but westerlies can deliver a good snowy day or two if they are in the mood. And when they are in a very good mood, can bring some spectacular squalls and thunderstorms in the winter. Give me an active westerly over an inept easterly/northerly/southerly or westerly any day. :cool:

RED L4 0TH

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Had a day of this under a such a system last Feb (not my pic but taken locally).

Not epic by any means, but westerlies can deliver a good snowy day or two if they are in the mood. And when they are in a very good mood, can bring some spectacular squalls and thunderstorms in the winter. Give me an active westerly over an inept easterly/northerly/southerly or westerly any day. :cool:

Yes. It was a front that moved down from the NW, that gave Dundalk snow in late 2010. Snowed for about 4/5 hours giving about 4 inches. Any wind direction north of easterly is no good for snow here from Irish sea streamers, as the Cooley/Mournes snow shield completely negates them.

Iancar29

GFS P and ECM on trend for 2 snow chances next week. How much though is still to call.
Best chances for the N and NW .

numilus cimbus

Gonzo wrote: »

cold systems from the Atlantic are still useless tho as we need an east or north-east feed to bring those snow trains into Dublin and leinster. An atlantic cold system would produce not much more than sunny skies and clear, frosty skies for us in the east.

Aye, but the theoretical flow in FI would plaster the west widely with snow locally several inches of it and the south coast too and the north
Basically anywhere that normally gets heavy rain showers from the Atlantic
Btw they would affect Meath and stick, just not as impressively epic as in Galway or Limerick

It wouldn't last though, there'd be a quick thaw 2 days later unless winds swung north or east or a cold high took over
It's taken time but I'm adjusting to what people say about snow here now to their location and for a small island big variety but obviously locabiased opinions from the big eastern population

Nabber

Each part on the country benefits better from different systems. I prefer precip to come in the form of undercutting low with a cold pool in Englang, wales

numilus cimbus

LordNorbury wrote: »

Wasn't that huge freeze back in the mid 80's an Atlantic cold system? I'm not a weather expert but I'm sure I heard that somewhere?

Jan 1982?
No that was a classic west meets east battle ground where an Atlantic weather system engaged an icy easterly and got stuck in the East dropping a two day blizzard there with a cold high sinking down securing ice days and snow cover for something like 10 days
Whole towns were cut off
The moisture came off the Atlantic alright but the freezer that turned it to snow was from the king of directions the East

Iancar29

I agree nabber that we would love an easterly feed for us Dubliners but i think it may be a case of go to where the snow is or miss out this season. So if its looking decent for northern counties next week , i'll be doing my bestest to go there!

Kermit.de.frog

The polar maritime regime begins from Saturday morning with mostly snow showers in the west and north in a cold westerly, then Sunday sees slightly milder conditions then back to very cold polar maritime air again. I think with a strong wind every chance those snow showers being more widespread at times and next week something to watch for is the possibility of small developing areas of low pressure from the southwest that may interact with this air mass giving some snow at times.

Not boring over the next while!

numilus cimbus

And to excite western posters here even more


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/552223082287333376

Oneiric 3

An obvious cold front has passed through here in the last 20 mins, bringing a 3 deg drop in temperature since just 11.55. Sharp rise in pressure at the same time too.