The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

M.T. Cranium

Expect some readings above 15 C in the downsloping areas of the southeast on Friday, whether they hit an official site or perhaps some of our members' personal sites or car thermometers (calibrate in advance so we can believe your readings).

Next week some of the cold intervals in the fast flow will be a few degrees colder than this week's variety, so as Kermit says above, fairly good chances for widespread wintry mixed showers. A lot of cold SST values west of Ireland now, 2 or 3 deg below normal values. This could set the stage for much colder spells in the second half of winter. It's going to be at least two weeks before there's any relaxation of this fast flow but I think it will come and parts of February may be much colder.

Would be interested in any comments about imminent or already occurring stratospheric warming event. I have been rather busy with other matters and have found some discussions on other sites a bit confusing. If you follow this sort of thing, what are you seeing?

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Expect some readings above 15 C in the downsloping areas of the southeast on Friday, whether they hit an official site or perhaps some of our members' personal sites or car thermometers (calibrate in advance so we can believe your readings).

Next week some of the cold intervals in the fast flow will be a few degrees colder than this week's variety, so as Kermit says above, fairly good chances for widespread wintry mixed showers. A lot of cold SST values west of Ireland now, 2 or 3 deg below normal values. This could set the stage for much colder spells in the second half of winter. It's going to be at least two weeks before there's any relaxation of this fast flow but I think it will come and parts of February may be much colder.

Would be interested in any comments about imminent or already occurring stratospheric warming event. I have been rather busy with other matters and have found some discussions on other sites a bit confusing. If you follow this sort of thing, what are you seeing?

UK Met office said at the weekend that new data indicates no major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is likely to occur "in the forseeable future". Moreover they note their monthly and seasonal modelling from back on Dec 27 dismissed the prospect. They add that a minor warming will be of minor significance, & resurgence of Polar Vortex/Polar Night Jet through nxt 2 weeks to 'near-normal'

AnotherYear

Latest from Ian Fergusson

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, ultimately shifting steadily eastwards so that by turn of month they sit with centre of gravity over Scandinavia. High pressure remains strong to the south throughout the sequence (Matt Hugo's helpful tweet showed the similar GFS prognosis, as broad replica). What we ultimately get are emerging signs of a more amplified pattern, steering deeper cyclonicity further to our north and an increasing resultant likelihood of northerly/colder incursions (these characterised in latest UKMO assessment as "no signs of any exceptional weather in this context", re any severity of colder weather later in the period). So, a gradual change in pattern and resultant fortunes (probably welcome for those preferring something chillier) remains the *likely* outcome at this still rather speculative juncture. The previous post-Mid Jan GFS solutions of a few runs back, albeit impressive in continuity, were regarded with great suspicion as likely artefacts of MJO being over-cooked (as some here also suspected) and discounted, versus a better general agreement on the route forward between EC and UKMO modelling.

---

Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather

Baggy Trousers

AnotherYear wrote: »

Latest from Ian Fergusson

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, ultimately shifting steadily eastwards so that by turn of month they sit with centre of gravity over Scandinavia. High pressure remains strong to the south throughout the sequence (Matt Hugo's helpful tweet showed the similar GFS prognosis, as broad replica). What we ultimately get are emerging signs of a more amplified pattern, steering deeper cyclonicity further to our north and an increasing resultant likelihood of northerly/colder incursions (these characterised in latest UKMO assessment as "no signs of any exceptional weather in this context", re any severity of colder weather later in the period). So, a gradual change in pattern and resultant fortunes (probably welcome for those preferring something chillier) remains the *likely* outcome at this still rather speculative juncture. The previous post-Mid Jan GFS solutions of a few runs back, albeit impressive in continuity, were regarded with great suspicion as likely artefacts of MJO being over-cooked (as some here also suspected) and discounted, versus a better general agreement on the route forward between EC and UKMO modelling.

---

Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS
Twitter: @fergieweather

In English anyone? Snow or no snow?

Nabber

Got to remember Ian F is UK based. Snow in UK does not mean snow in Ireland. Snow can fall as close as as Wales ans still not make it to our shores below 500m asl.

The Atlantic will dominate as it does 29 out of 30 times. I don't think there will be a pattern change within the next two weeks. Could speculate about the there after. But with a big cold pool in USA/Can I don't see much chance on a Easterly. High my shift over Spain and give us some SW feed which in my opinion is the worst form of winter weather.

numilus cimbus

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

In English anyone? Snow or no snow?

No snow

Winter 2015 is shaping up much like last years,except of course quieter with more northerly storm tracks
I fully expect a similar affair to last year now,brief jolts/differences,a boring harmless affair
Intuition tells me this
Of course Mother nature has the final say

AnotherYear

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

In English anyone? Snow or no snow?

Better to let someone like Maq explain his post than me, but my take on it is the most likely outcome is a shift in pattern with Canadian/Greenland vortex transferring in to Scandinavia. With an increased likelihood of seeing northerly/colder incursions. While at the same time no sign of any prolonged/exceptional cold as of yet.

AnotherYear

Next Wednesday. We need some hope in here

Nabber

Looking chilly at +300, surprisingly i'd imagine that 300/1 is odds paddy power would give of this happening.

Kermit.de.frog

So we were talking about the polar maritime incursions starting on Friday night and in to Saturday. We should see some snow showers in the west and north and maybe a little further east too on a brisk wind. Feeling very cold.






This continues like this for most of next week with short milder interludes interspersed with much colder air from the north Atlantic and often strong or gale force winds. Don't be at all surprised to see snow at times.

rickdangerouss

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Expect some readings above 15 C in the downsloping areas of the southeast on Friday, whether they hit an official site or perhaps some of our members' personal sites or car thermometers (calibrate in advance so we can believe your readings).

Next week some of the cold intervals in the fast flow will be a few degrees colder than this week's variety, so as Kermit says above, fairly good chances for widespread wintry mixed showers. A lot of cold SST values west of Ireland now, 2 or 3 deg below normal values. This could set the stage for much colder spells in the second half of winter. It's going to be at least two weeks before there's any relaxation of this fast flow but I think it will come and parts of February may be much colder.

Would be interested in any comments about imminent or already occurring stratospheric warming event. I have been rather busy with other matters and have found some discussions on other sites a bit confusing. If you follow this sort of thing, what are you seeing?

Small warming ahead, not an SSW. I like this around-about definition of an SSW

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/?p=3108184

elecktras weather bomb

very confusing over on them threads at the moment all happy campers one minute a war zone the next more so the model thread. I am interested in the stratosphere end of things a bit off putting trying to read riddles at times can come out of there with a stress headache.

Oneiric 3

On this evening in 1982, a front began moving up from the south..

Kermit.de.frog

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

On this evening in 1982, a front began moving up from the south..

Came up against a cold block but never made enough in roads and instead undercut it and stalled in the process.

Gonzo

I'll never forget that day back in 82, I was only 8 years old and walking back from the shops about 5 hours into the snowstorm and was walking into the very strong easterly winds with horizontal snow cutting my face almost felt like tiny pieces of glass. The next day I remember getting all excited waking up to see was there any snow and I opened the hall door and the snow fell into the house. I could not see over the drift.

The snow of winter 2010 was only a dusting compared to this!

Bejubby

I remember that too ,I was only five.
Never forget it, so much of it and it lasted days on end.

Hopefully won't be the last year of it.

faktisperminute

There is no prolonged cold spell any close at the minute, Just looks like a small chance for snow that will last for 1 night maybe and then drizzle/rain again.

JanuarySnowstor

Next week looks decidedly wintry at times with snowfall widespread over highest ground and mountains.

It's not 2010, BUT packs quite a punch on latest models

derekon

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Next week looks decidedly wintry at times with snowfall widespread over highest ground and mountains.

It's not 2010, BUT packs quite a punch on latest models

Not worth a f*ck given that 99% of people in Ireland don't live on mountains or on high ground. The latest models are, simply put, not good for cold lovers. Unfortunately, this winter is shaping up to be another disappointment.

D

Baggy Trousers

derekon wrote: »

Not worth a f*ck given that 99% of people in Ireland don't live on mountains or on high ground. The latest models are, simply put, not good for cold lovers. Unfortunately, this winter is shaping up to be another disappointment.

D

You should head for the hills after snow...the views can be absolutely spectacular and there is nothing better than trekking through fresh snow.

JanuarySnowstor

derekon wrote: »

Not worth a f*ck given that 99% of people in Ireland don't live on mountains or on high ground. The latest models are, simply put, not good for cold lovers. Unfortunately, this winter is shaping up to be another disappointment.

D

Let's disagree and see what happens next week

Trogdor

derekon wrote: »

Not worth a f*ck given that 99% of people in Ireland don't live on mountains or on high ground. The latest models are, simply put, not good for cold lovers. Unfortunately, this winter is shaping up to be another disappointment.

D

I wouldn't quite agree with that, certainly no sign of a prolonged cold spell any time soon, but a lot of places (low-lying included) have a decent chance of seeing some snow late saturday/early sunday.

derekon

Trogdor wrote: »

I wouldn't quite agree with that, certainly no sign of a prolonged cold spell any time soon, but a lot of places (low-lying included) have a decent chance of seeing some snow late saturday/early sunday.

OK Trogdor, I am going to adopt your enthusiasm and look out for low level snow this weekend somewhere in Ireland!!

D

Gonzo

have to say the only snow I care about is the snow in my back yard. It doesnt matter If it's in the Wicklow mountains or the east of England, snow in other places just is not the same as snow at home!

Nabber

Gonzo wrote: »

have to say the only snow I care about is the snow in my back yard. It doesnt matter If it's in the Wicklow mountains or the east of England, snow in other places just is not the same as snow at home!

derekon wrote: »

Not worth a f*ck given that 99% of people in Ireland don't live on mountains or on high ground. The latest models are, simply put, not good for cold lovers. Unfortunately, this winter is shaping up to be another disappointment.

D

That's the spirit lads

numilus cimbus

Gonzo wrote: »

have to say the only snow I care about is the snow in my back yard. It doesnt matter If it's in the Wicklow mountains or the east of England, snow in other places just is not the same as snow at home!

You will be very snow deprived for most of any winter If you aren't willing to drive down the M50/M1 for 30 mins to enjoy high ground snow
It's there often and it is Dublin Meath pulsars and wicklows back yard
I just can't understand this attitude
It's what you have to do in Dublin if you like snow and so easy

ongarboy

Gonzo wrote: »

I'll never forget that day back in 82, I was only 8 years old and walking back from the shops about 5 hours into the snowstorm and was walking into the very strong easterly winds with horizontal snow cutting my face almost felt like tiny pieces of glass. The next day I remember getting all excited waking up to see was there any snow and I opened the hall door and the snow fell into the house. I could not see over the drift.

The snow of winter 2010 was only a dusting compared to this!

I'd hardly call 27cms of snow recorded in Casement in December 2010 and about 25cms in my back yard just up from Clonee a dusting! That month also had longevity. Although I agree for sheer depth, particularly the drifts, 1982 was in a league of it's own!

LordNorbury

numilus cimbus wrote: »

You will be very snow deprived for most of any winter If you aren't willing to drive down the M50/M1 for 30 mins to enjoy high ground snow
It's there often and it is Dublin Meath pulsars and wicklows back yard
I just can't understand this attitude
It's what you have to do in Dublin if you like snow and so easy

Nail on the head, you can find snow 5 minutes from the Firhouse M50 exit if there is snow on the Dublin Mountains. The Hell Fire Club is 5 minutes from that M50 exit, you can usually find snow in the car park there, or heavier falls if you walk up to the summit which is only 30 minutes walk from the car park.

Tabnabs

LordNorbury wrote: »

Nail on the head, you can find snow 5 minutes from the Firhouse M50 exit if there is snow on the Dublin Mountains. The Hell Fire Club is 5 minutes from that M50 exit, you can usually find snow in the car park there, or heavily falls if you walk up to the summit which is only 30 minutes walk from the car park.

But for there to be decent snow lying at a relatively low elevation like Montpelier Hill, you would be seeing big flakes on the M50 itself. We had a day or two of that in 2012 and on Three Rock, from the lower carpark up had excellent conditions, but it was still falling at lower elevations. Nothing in the short to medium term suggests that happening. So far I've only seen a dusting at very high elevations in the Dublin mountains (Kippure, Corrig etc.)

Baggy Trousers

Galtymore not showing any snow at 917m for weekend- what gives?

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Galtymore/forecasts/917