The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

AnotherYear

I already posted this in the other thread but it's moving so fast so thought it better to post in here. Snow accumulation chart for Ireland from the met office. Half the cm shown for a more accurate depth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wza569RpKMw

icesnowfrost

can i just say now that if it snows over the next 24hrs will people put up pictures if possible and not just say "its snowing here the last 20 min" here? where is here? u no, that old chestnut! LOL
anyway. current temps




and dew points. remember dew points of zero or less are good enough for snow

Lumi

Closing the Winter chat thread temporarily so we can keep all of the snow reports in the same event thread to look back on

Discussion continues here

Villain

Someone draw a ramp!!!

Met Eireann forecast included:

A mixture of rain, sleet and snow will then spread countrywide during Monday, and there may be a risk of significant accumulations of snow further east and north eventually. Generally cold conditions seem set to persist well into next week, with further threats of snowfall from time to time.

Larbre34

Gonzo

I think Met Eireann could be a bit premature already announcing plenty of snow for eastern areas next week,as much as I really want it, it's gone pear shaped so many times before much closer to the time.

But for now it's still looking very promising for the east to finally get a taste of the action from Monday right up to next Thursday. Hopefully the IOM won't prove to be too much of a problem either.

After the western half of the country getting very decent amounts of snow in some places, we are more hungry than ever for this to work out so lets welcome the thought of snow train chaos and widespread whiteout conditons with open arms!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Gonzo wrote: »

I think Met Eireann could be a bit premature already announcing plenty of snow for eastern areas next week,as much as I really want it, it's gone pear shaped so many times before much closer to the time.

But for now it's still looking very promising for the east to finally get a taste of the action from Monday right up to next Thursday. Hopefully the IOM won't prove to be too much of a problem either.

I'd say Calibos is rocking back and forward in the foetal position

Yes, interesting to watch this and hopefully it comes off !

esposito

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

Yes, interesting to watch this and hopefully it comes off !

It probably won't. Looks promising now but by the weekend I'm sure it'll all ahve changed for the worse (like it usually does)

Ps I want an easterly, just being realistic.

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

I think Met Eireann could be a bit premature already announcing plenty of snow for eastern areas next week,as much as I really want it, it's gone pear shaped so many times before much closer to the time.

But for now it's still looking very promising for the east to finally get a taste of the action from Monday right up to next Thursday. Hopefully the IOM won't prove to be too much of a problem either.

After the western half of the country getting very decent amounts of snow in some places, we are more hungry than ever for this to work out so lets welcome the thought of snow train chaos and widespread whiteout conditons with open arms!

That forecast was based on yesterday's 12Z ECM which was show snowy conditions on Monday

cherryghost

maquiladora wrote: »

That forecast was based on yesterday's 12Z ECM which was show snowy conditions on Monday

It's been relatively consistent across most charts in recent runs.

Trogdor

Gonzo wrote: »

I think Met Eireann could be a bit premature already announcing plenty of snow for eastern areas next week,as much as I really want it, it's gone pear shaped so many times before much closer to the time.

Even now it looks just the wrong side of marginal for coastal areas at least, will need some upgrades i think.

Rebelbrowser

Trogdor wrote: »

Even now it looks just the wrong side of marginal for coastal areas at least, will need some upgrades i think.

They do have access to lots of material we don't see though and often use this to go "against" positive looking model outputs. Maybe the opposite is happening here?

leahyl

South Coast? How's it looking for snow next week.....well, I mean Cork really

Larbre34

leahyl wrote: »

South Coast? How's it looking for snow next week.....well, I mean Cork really

Depends on the position of the cold air as the rain arrives. Met E are really gone out on a limb for Monday, as all is still in play. If a cold source establishes after the transition, almost anywhere could see some decent snow. Except Cork.

Easterly Beasterly

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

They do have access to lots of material we don't see though and often use this to go "against" positive looking model outputs. Maybe the opposite is happening here?

Hopefully this is the case. I just noticed the Weather on TV and at the outlook stage at the end, they had sleet in the east and average temp of 1 degree for Monday. I noticed a positive update from Ian Ferguson on Twitter saying that there had been a flip to colder solutions as a result of MJO Phase.

Here's what he said:


UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed...

Anyone care to translate?

leahyl

Larbre34 wrote: »

Depends on the position of the cold air as the rain arrives. Met E are really gone out on a limb for Monday, as all is still in play. If a cold source establishes after the transition, almost anywhere could see some decent snow. Except Cork.

:mad::pac:

Calibos

Liam Neesons Ballbag wrote: »

I'd say Calibos is rocking back and forward in the foetal position

Yes, interesting to watch this and hopefully it comes off !

Locked and Loaded

coconnellz

snowing here in Cavan

Musicman2000

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

Hopefully this is the case. I just noticed the Weather on TV and at the outlook stage at the end, they had sleet in the east and average temp of 1 degree for Monday. I noticed a positive update from Ian Ferguson on Twitter saying that there had been a flip to colder solutions as a result of MJO Phase.

Here's what he said:


UKMO regard EC DET as progressive outlier. Strong signal for colder or much colder weather next week, albeit extremely low skill on snow risk in any one area (not even worth speculating!). MJO phase root cause for the synoptic 'flip', they say. Some solutions look ominous, but a while before ANY worthwhile deterministic detail emerges for day-to-day prospects after the cold, cyclonic weekend has passed...

Anyone care to translate?

It would mean the 00z ECM Operation run was a mild outlier compared to its EC Ens. So basically they are trending a lot colder.

Baggy Trousers

I know it's hard to call but when would be the best weekend to find decent snow on higher ground (>500m)???

Sat/Sun 17/18
Sat/Sun 24/25

I know this storm will remove all the snow but I am hearing that the end of this week (Thurs/Fri) with have more snow and that next week is also cold (especially Monday).

The mountains in particular would be either be in Galway/Mayo or the Galtees.

FutureGuy

Myself and the wife were almost the only two running around Limerick city last night. Full-on snowball fights and snowman building.

Great hour of entertainment.

icesnowfrost

cold weekend ahead and so far the signs are really good for some good cold (east to northeast) next week. fingers crossed. and we will keep everyone updated on it.

LordNorbury

icesnowfrost wrote: »

cold weekend ahead and so far the signs are really good for some good cold (east to northeast) next week. fingers crossed. and we will keep everyone updated on it.

Am I right in saying that this cold snap at the weekend will be coming in from the E/NE and not from the west as was the case today and yesterday?

leahyl

Is the snow that may happen next week only forecast for the East and North East so?

Rebelbrowser

leahyl wrote: »

Is the snow that may happen next week only forecast for the East and North East so?

There are a few possible snow events and if they came off we'd all get some. But to cut to the chase and answer your question Cork not as well positioned for the potential big events next week! But sure it snowed last night girl!

Gonzo

leahyl wrote: »

Is the snow that may happen next week only forecast for the East and North East so?

nothing is set in stone, the only thing that is certain is that tomorrow to Sunday will bring wintry showers to the western half of the country so Cork should be in with another shot of wintry showers. The east is likely to stay dry, cold and sunny from tomorrow till sunday then from Monday onwards the east hopefully will take a pasting. Or the easterly could shift a bit further east resulting in a non event for us. The only thing im surprised at is Met Eireann hinting at it, alot can change over the next 5 days.

Pangea

Good news is the Postman says the snowy weather will be around for the next two weeks

Schadenfreudia

Pangea wrote: »

Good news is the Postman says the snowy weather will be around for the next two weeks

Bad news is he was talking about the first fortnight in December!

leahyl

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

There are a few possible snow events and if they came off we'd all get some. But to cut to the chase and answer your question Cork not as well positioned for the potential big events next week! But sure it snowed last night girl!

So?! I want more! Don't want Dublin getting all the action!!

Kermit.de.frog

I think it is important that people know what to expect in the north and west (including Munster). There will be snow and there will be more accumulations from tomorrow evening inland and they ought to know that and be prepared for it because it can be disruptive as we have seen. I'd say typically 2 - 5 cm can be expected generally at low levels. Don't expect much elsewhere just more isolated showers.