The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Newtown90

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just imagine this was the forecast for tonight

I think this thread would explode if this happened again!

Kermit.de.frog

The colder weather for the beginning of next week is looking more benign since yesterday with little risk of wintry weather aside from some night time frosts. Of far more interest is the huge amplification and distortion of the jet stream in to mid November being progged on some of the models particularly the GFS and ECM. A lot of the ingredients for a really cold second half of November.

Its Only Ray Parlour

That picture is from The Journal and they must have got it from this YouTube video because I just happened to stumble upon it whilst searching Met Eireann weather forecasts:

Waitsian

Alanstrainor wrote: »

Anyone know the date of that forecast?

Dec 21 2010.

degrassinoel

I just read this article here, sums up the op pretty nicely. But i heard the same thing before too

Iancar29

mod9maple wrote: »

Dec 21 2010.

And nice to watch it unfold here ... Just look at that Greeny high!
Oh the memories :rolleyes:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=10&mois=12&annee=2010&heure=6&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&carte=0

AndyBoBandy

mod9maple wrote: »

Dec 21 2010.

I remember it well, I was working out in Greece in November/December that year, and finished up the day before the weather got bad. I had a flight to go home via Heathrow (which ended up being closed, and my flight was cancelled).

The weekend before though, I'd come home via Zurich for 2 days and remembered how well they were set up to deal with snow. so once it was looking my flight to Heathrow was canned, I immediately booked a flight home via Zurich again. Got into Dublin on the 20th, and the following day, most of Europe's airports were closed.

maquiladora

degrassinoel wrote: »

I just read this article here, sums up the op pretty nicely. But i heard the same thing before too

This has probably been repeated a million times already, but whenever you see an article with Madden being quoted you are better off cleansing it from your memory. Let's just say he forecast ice floes for the UK coast last winter, I'm not even joking.

degrassinoel

nice hah

Creative Juices

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just imagine this was the forecast for tonight

I find it fascinating that it can be -15 in Athlone and yet 9 degrees "warmer" 40-50 miles away.

Its Only Ray Parlour

Creative Juices wrote: »

I find it fascinating that it can be -15 in Athlone and yet 9 degrees "warmer" 40-50 miles away.

If you watch the weather forecast in the video I posted, it's because of the northeasterly wind blowing snow showers onto the east coast (along with the warming effect of the sea). Also, snowfields cause the temperature to drop significantly lower than normals clear nights in Winter.

ninebeanrows

England going to break Halloween day temperature record tomorrow, could hit 22c in parts of the southeast!

It feels warmer here tonight than 95% of summer days in Ireland!

Kermit.de.frog

Big changes on the way though from Sunday. You will certainly feel the difference over there with single digit temperatures and a keen breeze off the north sea!

quantumphysics

Something tells me this year will be one to match 2010/2011, loads of signs around, extremely mild summer and autumn, 20 degrees on Halloween? Reminds me a lot of 2010 and 2009
Some might say this warm weather is a sign of a mild winter ahead but the warmer it will become just reminds me how much of a monster this winter will be, by December it'll be a siberian airflow with record breaking cold unlike anything we've seen in 2010/2011, no I don't work for the Express nor the Daily Mail but the past few days from being outside I can just sense it, watch this space.

Harry Palmr

:rolleyes:

200motels

quantumphysics wrote: »

Something tells me this year will be one to match 2010/2011, loads of signs around, extremely mild summer and autumn, 20 degrees on Halloween? Reminds me a lot of 2010 and 2009
Some might say this warm weather is a sign of a mild winter ahead but the warmer it will become just reminds me how much of a monster this winter will be, by December it'll be a siberian airflow with record breaking cold unlike anything we've seen in 2010/2011, no I don't work for the Express nor the Daily Mail but the past few days from being outside I can just sense it, watch this space.

And you base all this on a hunch, I sense we're going to have a very mild winter because we mostly do.

quantumphysics

I take it some people here don't like a harmless ramp, have a bit of faith people! anything can happen

maquiladora

quantumphysics wrote: »

Something tells me this year will be one to match 2010/2011, loads of signs around, extremely mild summer and autumn, 20 degrees on Halloween? Reminds me a lot of 2010 and 2009
Some might say this warm weather is a sign of a mild winter ahead but the warmer it will become just reminds me how much of a monster this winter will be, by December it'll be a siberian airflow with record breaking cold unlike anything we've seen in 2010/2011, no I don't work for the Express nor the Daily Mail but the past few days from being outside I can just sense it, watch this space.

I suppose there could be something to it, in that the overall northern hemisphere pattern that allows the mild weather here to happen in autumn feeds back in some kind of way that increases the chances of a more blocked winter, which increases the chances of a cold winter here. Maybe?

Rikand

quantumphysics wrote: »

I take it some people here don't like a harmless ramp, have a bit of faith people! anything can happen

Thrres no such thing as a 'harmless' ramp

gugsy

Here wet your appetite on this Oct 2010 was very warm at the start of the month with temp at 17/18 C. and we all know what happened in the following months

Iranoutofideas

My neighbour once threw his tv through the window because he claimed the weatherman kept winking at his wife. Mr Fleming I presume. I know this has nothing to do with anything really just thought I'd share lol

davidsr20

Did mt do his winter forecast yet guys?

jamo2oo9

davidsr20 wrote: »

Did mt do his winter forecast yet guys?

Yeah, check a few pages back. He posted it about 2 weeks ago iirc

Lucreto

I hope for a bit of snow this year as my niece is that age when snow is a magical thing. I think she is going for the world record in watching Frozen and loves the talking snowman so I said to her if it snows we will build one just like him. The look of delight of her face was heartwarming.

I just hope I didn't dig a hole for myself.

elecktras weather bomb

I remember trick or treating with the kids OCT 2010. like that was extremely mild . I will never forget the rolling thunder the night or dawn should I say that the weather broke. if that happens this year I would nearly go as far to say ............game on. I have bought zero for a snow event this year...... so we shall probably get deluged in it.

maquiladora

I'll stick my neck out and say I think there's a good chance we'll see a proper cold spell at some stage this winter. When you look at the combination of the Eurasian snowcover index, this new OPI index, the expected easterly QBO and weak ENSO signal then I think the chances are we'll see periods of northern blocking this winter, and while that doesn't always mean cold for Ireland, it definitely helps.

We'll see how the strat behaves in November then as we come towards the end of the autumn we'll see if anything interesting starts popping up in FI on the models. Very early days yet.

Kermit.de.frog

The problem is that even if everything theoretically was going to plan, and some of the building blocks are there for cold no doubt, we could still end up for example with a westerly based -NAO which conceivably could give us the mildest winter on record. The variables are so unstable and numerous in this part of the world that no real accuracy is possible.

One very noticeable difference to last year, and the OPI reflects this, is a drought of extra tropical depressions and a more amplified and distorted jet stream thus far. We are far from seeing the really cold air pumping out of Canada providing that extra energy in the north Atlantic. The core PV unlike last year is disjointed and disfigured thus far. The Atlantic is relatively quiet and seeing it as the force it was last winter this year seems very unlikely at this stage.

But like I say some of the pieces are there and you never know.

AndyBoBandy

I generally always hope we get a white winter (and to a lesser extent the cold that comes with it), for me, it's just something magical about seeing everything covered in snow, it's like the whole place has been whitewashed.

If there was any winter however that I want it to be mild, it's this winter, as we are expecting our first child in mid January, so I definitely do not want to see snow, or an extended cold patch.

I've a feeling though it will be similar to the winter (81/82) I was born, and be a cold snowy one (so I keep getting told anyway).

wildefalcon

It's no joke bringing your first born home from the hospital in the car when the roads are covered in snow!

Terror!

AndyBoBandy

wildefalcon wrote: »

It's no joke bringing your first born home from the hospital in the car when the roads are covered in snow!

Terror!

Absolutely dreading it if it happens.

And, just when things couldn't of got any worse, I drive a rear wheel drive car.

patneve2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The problem is that even if everything theoretically was going to plan, and some of the building blocks are there for cold no doubt, we could still end up for example with a westerly based -NAO which conceivably could give us the mildest winter on record. The variables are so unstable and numerous in this part of the world that no real accuracy is possible.

One very noticeable difference to last year, and the OPI reflects this, is a drought of extra tropical depressions and a more amplified and distorted jet stream thus far. We are far from seeing the really cold air pumping out of Canada providing that extra energy in the north Atlantic. The core PV unlike last year is disjointed and disfigured thus far. The Atlantic is relatively quiet and seeing it as the force it was last winter this year seems very unlikely at this stage.

But like I say some of the pieces are there and you never know.

Agree especially regarding the disjointed PV. Whilst last year it was on steroids, this year it is on tranquilizer. Now there is still time for it to start spinning like mad, but at this stage one cannot ignore the positive signals.

hatrickpatrick

Why is the neutral or weak El Nino ENSO considered a good thing for those who want snow? If you think about the massive snow event in November / December 2010, wasn't that a strong La Nina year? And the previous winter as well, end '09?

Obviously not saying there's a correlation, I just find it odd that everyone is talking about the current ENSO status as if it's a good sign for snow lovers, when (as far as I remember) it was swinging very strongly in the opposite direction (strong La Nina) during the two most recent snowy winters O_o

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why is the neutral or weak El Nino ENSO considered a good thing for those who want snow? If you think about the massive snow event in November / December 2010, wasn't that a strong La Nina year? And the previous winter as well, end '09?

Obviously not saying there's a correlation, I just find it odd that everyone is talking about the current ENSO status as if it's a good sign for snow lovers, when (as far as I remember) it was swinging very strongly in the opposite direction (strong La Nina) during the two most recent snowy winters O_o

Years with weak El Nino's and easterly QBO's have often had -AO winters.

The One Doctor

wildefalcon wrote: »

It's no joke bringing your first born home from the hospital in the car when the roads are covered in snow!

Terror!

That's what I'm afraid of, my girlfriend is due on Xmas day.

wexie

The One Doctor wrote: »

That's what I'm afraid of, my girlfriend is due on Xmas day.

Bit of a bonus as well though, there'll be almost no traffic on the roads.
Hope all goes well, try to prepare for anything (might not hurt to see if there's any neighbours or anything with decent 4x4's?)

hoody

Andybobandy wrote: »

If there was any winter however that I want it to be mild, it's this winter, as we are expecting our first child in mid January, so I definitely do not want to see snow, or an extended cold patch.

6th of January is the due date for our first so hoping for a mild spell around then too! Enjoying the updates so far as every year

The One Doctor

wexie wrote: »

Bit of a bonus as well though, there'll be almost no traffic on the roads.
Hope all goes well, try to prepare for anything (might not hurt to see if there's any neighbours or anything with decent 4x4's?)

Thanks, I'm just hoping the snow's not too deep and labour isn't too advanced. My car (Prius) is known for its crap snow handling abilities too, oh well.

Tabnabs

On the balance of probabilities, you'll be grand, this is Ireland, not Alaska.

AndyBoBandy

If the weather looks like it will be bad a few days before the due date, I'd even consider renting a better equipped car for the snow, I have a ton of Hertz points, so might just use them and not take the chance!

we're due the 9th January.

Chicken1

Is this the baby forum now and not weather :rolleyes:

AndyBoBandy

Chicken1 wrote: »

Is this the baby forum now and not weather :rolleyes:

For me, its the "i'm shi££ing myself over a baby because of what the weather might do" thread.

hatrickpatrick

FI, but this is.... Interesting

gugsy

Nothing so far in the model. Currently showing cool conditions till next fri. Day temp for most of the week is from 5C-10C in the north to 7C-14C in the south and at nights down to 0 in some place mostly 2-4 in others.

Shimmy Jimmy CocoPop

T shirt weather today, ridiculous! If I recall it was exactly like this in October 2010 and we know what happened in November and December:)

Creative Juices

Andybobandy wrote: »

For me, its the "i'm shi££ing myself over a baby because of what the weather might do" thread.

The weather will be the least of their worries for the first 2 months!

Smidge

The One Doctor wrote: »

That's what I'm afraid of, my girlfriend is due on Xmas day.

Jesus!!

jamo2oo9

Well at least I know what I should do when I want to have children. Have them in summer instead :P

Tom Cruises Left Nut

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

Well at least I know what I should do when I want to have children. Have them in summer instead :P

It's all about timing, just like the weather :pac:

Video

Shimmy Jimmy CocoPop wrote: »

T shirt weather today, ridiculous! If I recall it was exactly like this in October 2010 and we know what happened in November and December:)

was pissing rain all day today here

snaps

I assume with all this baby talk the chance of snow and cold this week has dissapeared?