Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Itziger

Treve 10/1, wow!

Won't we all look dumb if she reproduces last year's run!! And we're not on.

jimjamcos

Cute enough by Ballydoyle, no way was Moore ever going to be left on the sidelines. Tapestry a rabbit from the hat but has obviously been planned. At 120k to supplement it'd want to be..

paddyisreal

jimjamcos wrote: »

Cute enough by Ballydoyle, no way was Moore ever going to be left on the sidelines. Tapestry a rabbit from the hat but has obviously been planned. At 120k to supplement it'd want to be..

Maybe she could be placed or win but o briens record would not breed confidence. About two horses placed from a lot of runners. The arc is a different kettle of fish from the irish and english derby but i think his runners this year have a chance of a place at best.

paddyisreal

jimjamcos wrote: »

Cute enough by Ballydoyle, no way was Moore ever going to be left on the sidelines. Tapestry a rabbit from the hat but has obviously been planned. At 120k to supplement it'd want to be..

Maybe she could be placed or win but o briens record would not breed confidence. About two horses placed from a lot of runners. The arc is a different kettle of fish from the irish and english derby but i think his runners this year have a chance of a place at best.

Gringo180

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

She wouldn't have gotten near Treve.

I disagree. Look at the race again. Treve had a good 3 lengths on Chicquita when they kicked for home. The filly was an absolute monkey in the race, flashing her tail and veering back and forth slightly and finished under a hands and heel ride. Not saying she would of beat her, but she wouldn't of been far off and Chicquita is the type to improve at 4 whereas there is big question marks over Treve.

diomed

I will post my tip when the money is down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OauiVnN1YUU

jimjamcos

diomed wrote: »

I will post my tip when the money is down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OauiVnN1YUU

Lol, You expecting a Tony Martin style gamble on Arc Day? Maybe there's a Chinese Tony out there ready to unleash the plot of all plots

NaiveMelodies

jimjamcos wrote: »

Lol, You expecting a Tony Martin style gamble on Arc Day? Maybe there's a Chinese Tony out there ready to unleash the plot of all plots

Didn't you know Diomed's money always shifts the market on Arc day?

Gregk961

Fingers crossed there might be some inside info posted in the tips thread yet

Harry Angstrom

Don McClean tipped Harp Star on Newstalk tonight, for what it's worth. He then sang a verse of American Pie.

tryfix

It usually takes a horse who's won a championship class race/classic easily in the year to win the Arc.

In recent times the Arc has been won by the classy Derby winners Sea The Stars, Workforce and by the Irish Derby winners Hurricane Run and Dylan Thomas ( as a 3yo the previous year ) who won one of the other Key Arc trials the King George in his Arc winning year. The French horses Zarkava and Treve had shown brilliant classic form blowing away rivals in their French classic wins.

There are a few outstanding horse in the Arc this year. Taghrooda has been outstanding this year, easily winning her Oaks and King George this year. She's quite possibly going to pull away from the field at the end of this years Arc. Her York conqueror Tapestry doesn't have the brilliance of an Arc winning 3yo, but she beat Taghrooda fair and square at York and is the best outsider in the field. I'd be put off Taghrooda by the performance of Gosden's horses in the Arc over the years.


Avenir Certain has the Treve and Zarkava French classic wining brilliance, though not so much of the collateral form. She's a very good prospect and I'll be backing her and/or Ectot who's shown a lot of class to easily beat the French 2,000 guineas winner over 8f at the start of the year under a hands and heels ride ride, before showing that he handles 12f no problem in the Niel.

The Japanese horse Just A Way is the highest rated Japanese horse ever to contest the Arc ( and Japanese horses have come close to winning before ) . He's probably on the edge of winning an Arc ratings wise and has the kind of brilliant easy winning form of an Arc winner.

He's very good value ATM, but I fancy the two unexposed French 3yos Avenir Certain and Ectot to show what a brilliant crop this years 3yos are.

I respect Ivanhowe and Ruler Of The World, but surely they are place prospects more than winning prospects.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

It usually takes a horse who's won a championship class race/classic easily in the year to win the Arc.

In recent times the Arc has been won by the classy Derby winners Sea The Stars, Workforce and by the Irish Derby winners Hurricane Run and Dylan Thomas ( as a 3yo the previous year ) who won one of the other Key Arc trials the King George in his Arc winning year. The French horses Zarkava and Treve had shown brilliant classic form blowing away rivals in their French classic wins.

There are a few outstanding horse in the Arc this year. Taghrooda has been outstanding this year, easily winning her Oaks and King George this year. She's quite possibly going to pull away from the field at the end of this years Arc. Her York conqueror Tapestry doesn't have the brilliance of an Arc winning 3yo, but she beat Taghrooda fair and square at York and is the best outsider in the field. I'd be put off Taghrooda by the performance of Gosden's horses in the Arc over the years.


Avenir Certain has the Treve and Zarkava French classic wining brilliance, though not so much of the collateral form. She's a very good prospect and I'll be backing her and/or Ectot who's shown a lot of class to easily beat the French 2,000 guineas winner over 8f at the start of the year under a hands and heels ride ride, before showing that he handles 12f no problem in the Niel.

The Japanese horse Just A Way is the highest rated Japanese horse ever to contest the Arc ( and Japanese horses have come close to winning before ) . He's probably on the edge of winning an Arc ratings wise and has the kind of brilliant easy winning form of an Arc winner.

He's very good value ATM, but I fancy the two unexposed French 3yos Avenir Certain and Ectot to show what a brilliant crop this years 3yos are.

I respect Ivanhowe and Ruler Of The World, but surely they are place prospects more than winning prospects.

He's been off for 3 months and was beaten thoroughly the last time he contested 12 furlongs by lesser horses than these. Ratings can tell a story but the horse tells the truth and the truth is he wants not parts of 12 furlongs.

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

He's been off for 3 months and was beaten thoroughly the last time he contested 12 furlongs by lesser horses than these. Ratings can tell a story but the horse tells the truth and the truth is he wants not parts of 12 furlongs.

The only time he ran at 12f was as a 3yo when he was an unfancied 112/10 chance for the Japanese Derby. He was also beaten by 5l, 6l, and 5l in his previous races. In fact he had only won a single race out of 5 starts before the Japanese Derby and that was a 1/2l win of a Gp3. How was he supposed to win a 12f Derby when he wasn't within an asses roar of winning it on form?

He's now a 5yo and has improved his form to an extent that he's now rated the best horse in the world. Before he hit that height in the ratings he didn't just beat Gentildonna by 4l over 10f, he thrashed her with ease " stayed on strongly and forged clear inside final furlong, impressive".

That's not the form of a horse who's no chance of staying 12f. He's suspect on stamina on breeding and on earlier form. Some horses take some maturing to stay. Take a horse like Daylami who raced at 8f at 3 failed to win at 12f at 4 and won a King George by 5l at 5.

On DI Just A Way is a high 2.50, but Dancing Brave was 2.36, Sea The Stars was 3.00 and Zarkava was 2.20. So he can possibly do it based on his easy going away 10f win over Gentildonna where he stepped up his defeat of the third that day to 6l from the 1/2l he beat that same horse over 9f in his previous start.

My biggest worry with him is if the ground turned soft, then I would give him zero chance.

Peintre Celebre

The crucial draw

byronbay2

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

The crucial draw

Thanks for that - always vital info, although I'll never forget Zarkava winning from a draw in the carpark a few years back!

Taghrooda being drawn 15 is a bit of a bummer and puts me off her to a great extent. With heavy rain possible (or not!) in Paris on Sunday, the race has become very messy and unpredictable. If I have a bet at all now, it will be within 5 minutes of the off. Still an exciting race (would love to see a Japanese winner) but not really an enticing betting proposition now. However, there is still the strong possibility of crazy prices on the PMU (because of the 3 Japanese horses) and that could make things very interesting!

DylanAFC

Kingston Hill....

Earendil

byronbay2 wrote: »

Thanks for that - always vital info, although I'll never forget Zarkava winning from a draw in the carpark a few years back!

Taghrooda being drawn 15 is a bit of a bummer and puts me off her to a great extent. With heavy rain possible (or not!) in Paris on Sunday, the race has become very messy and unpredictable. If I have a bet at all now, it will be within 5 minutes of the off. Still an exciting race (would love to see a Japanese winner) but not really an enticing betting proposition now. However, there is still the strong possibility of crazy prices on the PMU (because of the 3 Japanese horses) and that could make things very interesting!

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

Peintre Celebre

Earendil wrote: »

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

Middle to low, the wider the worse it is, it's a right handed track those drawn 20 or around there will be on the wide right, more ground to cover into the turn they may end up further back than ideal or having to race a few horses wide

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Middle to low, the wider the worse it is, it's a right handed track those drawn 20 or around there will be on the wide right, more ground to cover into the turn they may end up further back than ideal or having to race a few horses wide

I think you'll find it's a right handed track. That is to say clockwise. As for the wide draw, I wouldn't be over the moon or anything but Treve won it last year from 17/18 or something and she was light, raced wide enough, got a few bumps but just happened to be the best horse on the day by quite a bit.

Itziger

Lads, weather here in Lux is absolutely beautiful and ground is well dry (I run a fair bit). It's supposed to change on Sunday but checking Paris weather it's saying sun for Sunday still, though cooler.

It'll be good at the least if it doesn't rain.

longshotvalue

Treve same draw as last year. Winner Alright ... 10/1

Peintre Celebre

Itziger wrote: »

I think you'll find it's a right handed track. That is to say clockwise. As for the wide draw, I wouldn't be over the moon or anything but Treve won it last year from 17/18 or something and she was light, raced wide enough, got a few bumps but just happened to be the best horse on the day by quite a bit.

No I know I corrected myself, if it was left handed it wouldn't be a hindrance being drawn on the right as that would mean they're effectively 1.

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

No I know I corrected myself, if it was left handed it wouldn't be a hindrance being drawn on the right as that would mean they're effectively 1.

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Yeah, you'd corrected it by the time I posted! Anyway, I reckon the weather will be as important or more important than the draw.

Question: If you back with an online bookie and they offer the possibility of doing Pari Mutuel, are you guaranteed the PM price in the case of the Japanese doing mad shenanigans again? Cos if I recall rightly, the year of Deep Impact the eventual winner's price shot up to something like 27.0 just before the off.

Would a UK/Irish online operation have paid out on 26/1 that year???

Peintre Celebre

Itziger wrote: »

Yeah, you'd corrected it by the time I posted! Anyway, I reckon the weather will be as important or more important than the draw.

Question: If you back with an online bookie and they offer the possibility of doing Pari Mutuel, are you guaranteed the PM price in the case of the Japanese doing mad shenanigans again? Cos if I recall rightly, the year of Deep Impact the eventual winner's price shot up to something like 27.0 just before the off.

Would a UK/Irish online operation have paid out on 26/1 that year???

Yeah isn't the PM just like tote, you back your horse and you get paid out at the dividend is settled at regardless of what the price was as you backed it


Can anyone tell me, with horses being coupled, Ectot and Ruler of the World are only part owned by al shaqab, they're not coupled are they? Same with Ruler of the World with the two ballydoyle fillies

Itziger

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Yeah isn't the PM just like tote, you back your horse and you get paid out at the dividend is settled at regardless of what the price was as you backed it


Can anyone tell me, with horses being coupled, Ectot and Ruler of the World are only part owned by al shaqab, they're not coupled are they? Same with Ruler of the World with the two ballydoyle fillies

That annoys the crap out of me. Have no idea on the part-owned problem, hadn't thought of that but the 'Real' Ballydoyle horses will be coupled, that's certain. Would it come down to percentage of ownership?

longshotvalue

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

I'm pretty sure Treve was 15

Maybe i got mixed up , well even better as she is 3 now..

Itziger

Treve was second from the end if not the widest of all but trainer said, no problemo. I think jockey said same. I like it when the trainer and/or jockey is positive instead of preparing excuses beforehand. Checkout the replay, she got a couple of bumps too to keep her wide!

tryfix

Earendil wrote: »

Could someone explain to a clueless punter the preferred draw please? 1, 20 or central?

The draw matters, with only two winners in the last twelve years (Dalakhani and Treve) racing from a stall number higher than nine. Stall one is a coffin box and only one horse (Carroll House Drawn 16) has managed to win from a draw higher than 15 in the last twenty six years, and that was on good ground.
Horses drawn in stalls two, four, six and seven have won fourteen of the last twenty seven running of the race; a strike rate of 51%.
Fourteen of the last twenty seven runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained, three year olds.

What the draw does is it hugely decreases the chance of the fancied horses Taghrooda. Avenir Certain and to a much more limited extent Just A way and Harp Star, while improving the chances of the better of the well drawn horses Gold Ship, Treve, Rule Of The World, Tapestry and Ectot.

http://www.bettingmarket.com/prixarc2012.html

Peintre Celebre

Anyone else feel all value has gone from the market, unless you fancy Treve or something at a really big price. Bearing in mind Taghrooda was still available at 16/1 in the weeks after her Oaks win (PP were a standout).

I thought Ectot would have destroyed every French three year old colt this year and I stand by that- I just wonder how close he and The Grey Gatsby would have been at Chantilly if he'd have ran, at the time I'd have said Ectot in a canter but I was dis-respecting the winner


Think it is safe to say he'd have probably won the French Guineas given the way he readily beat the winner first time out this season. A Guineas winner by Hurricane Run, probably will never be seen


Also find it amazing that people make a case for Flintshire this is an absolute hound. It reminds me of the year I went to the Arc and the English lads beside us were backing Sea Moon. Imagine he went off at 9/1 for an Arc even if it was a bad year

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

The only time he ran at 12f was as a 3yo when he was an unfancied 112/10 chance for the Japanese Derby. He was also beaten by 5l, 6l, and 5l in his previous races. In fact he had only won a single race out of 5 starts before the Japanese Derby and that was a 1/2l win of a Gp3. How was he supposed to win a 12f Derby when he wasn't within an asses roar of winning it on form?

He's now a 5yo and has improved his form to an extent that he's now rated the best horse in the world. Before he hit that height in the ratings he didn't just beat Gentildonna by 4l over 10f, he thrashed her with ease " stayed on strongly and forged clear inside final furlong, impressive".

That's not the form of a horse who's no chance of staying 12f. He's suspect on stamina on breeding and on earlier form. Some horses take some maturing to stay. Take a horse like Daylami who raced at 8f at 3 failed to win at 12f at 4 and won a King George by 5l at 5.

On DI Just A Way is a high 2.50, but Dancing Brave was 2.36, Sea The Stars was 3.00 and Zarkava was 2.20. So he can possibly do it based on his easy going away 10f win over Gentildonna where he stepped up his defeat of the third that day to 6l from the 1/2l he beat that same horse over 9f in his previous start.

My biggest worry with him is if the ground turned soft, then I would give him zero chance.

With all that you've just said he draws stall 14. And showers are in the area for Saturday and Sunday morning

tryfix

FIVE2_THREE wrote: »

With all that you've just said he draws stall 14. And showers are in the area for Saturday and Sunday morning

Correct, his chances are receding and Ectot is now the best shot out of the horses I fancy. I also think a bet on Aidan O'Brien to win the race or the Japanese as a block to win the race would be a nice saver.

FIVE2_THREE

tryfix wrote: »

Correct, his chances are receding and Ectot is now the best shot out of the horses I fancy. I also think a bet on Aidan O'Brien to win the race or the Japanese as a block to win the race would be a nice saver.

That's why I said a person can study form and back form all day but there are other factors that toss form out the window.

1. Off for 3 moths
2. Unproven over 12 f
3. Drew stall 14

NO THANKS

diomed

Prince Gibraltar is my pick (drawn 9 of 20)


I dismissed this horse until I looked at his runs on Youtube. His form 311-1323 seemed to be disimproving.

A worry is his “held up in rear/in last” comments.
Mostly ridden by Christophe Soumillon of “held up in last trio” Orfevre Arc fame.
There is some doubt about staying 12f as his dam had her one win over 9 ½ f and his sire’s maximum distance was 8f.
But Prince Gibraltar was btn a snk in an 11 runner 12f Group 1 very soft “closing on winner”.
In the French Derby 10 ½f “last halfway, stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish”.
Won over 10f as a 2yo would suggest a plodder, but he has imo shown finishing speed since!
.
.
.

09/11/13 Criterium de Saint-Cloud 2yo 10f heavy. No 6 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbEXOsbzI9M

.
.
.

03/05/14 Prix Greffulhe 3yo 10f soft. No 3 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZBCt2N-D4

.
.
.
01/06/14 Prix du Jockey Club 10.5f good. maroon
Last with 600m to go. 3rd closing on The Grey Gatsby at the finish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7Afg3Ar82Q

.
.
.

13/07/14 Grand Prix de Paris 3yo 12f very soft. No 3 green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7pviY00KJg

2nd btn a snk. He proves imo here he gets 12f. The Grey Gatsby didn't stay.
A new owner probably told the jockey to stop the "waited with in last" game.
.
.
.

15/08/14 Prix Guillame D'Ornano 3yo 10f heavy. Green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slNM2jwM1bc

The jockey is easy on the horse in the last 200m.
.
.
.
Antepost I have only €71 at 40.45. Looked for another €110 at 44 to 50 but the price dropped to 36.
Just got another €40 at 40 in the day of race market so I'm posting on boards now. Asking for more at 40+.

His draw in 9 is fair. I would prefer 5 or 6. Worried that the jock might pull him back.
I see his jockey Jean-Bernard Eyquem has two Group 1 wins: Tie Black in the 2006 French 1000 Guineas (promoted winner); Shaka in the 1996 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
A slight worry is that Avenir Certain (draw 1) and Prince Gibraltar (draw 9) are both trained by J-C Rouget but different ownership.
Hopefully PG not a pacemaker. Avenir Certain and outsider Montviron (draw 11) linked ownership.
Prince Gibraltar described on the Betfair forum as "not the most willing or straight forward".

Sorry to disappoint those waiting for some inside info.

Peintre Celebre

Gibraltar is an absolute nag. Smashed by Ectot last year, smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris and readily beaten in the Jockey Club. I will give up racing if he wins

diomed

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Gibraltar is an absolute nag. Smashed by Ectot last year, smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris and readily beaten in the Jockey Club. I will give up racing if he wins

1. smashed by Ectot last year
   As far as I can see Ectot and Prince Gibraltar did not meet as 2yos
   
2. smashed in the Grand Prix de Paris
   Prince Gibraltar was beaten a short neck by Gallante in the Grand Prix de Paris "closing on winner at finish"
   
3. readily beaten in the Jockey Club
   Prince Gibraltar was 3rd in the Prix du Jockey Club to The Grey Gatsby btn 3l and nk "stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish"

He is trading at 40s so I think you might not have to give up racing, but perhaps you should brush up on the form.

Peintre Celebre

You're right Diomed they didn't meet.

He might have been closing cut he was readily beaten by the Gatsby he won by three lengths. And that Grand Prix de Paris is probably the worst group 1 ran in Europe all year. The winner Galante was brushed aside by Ectot last time out. I think 40s on Gibraltar is about 25 points too short but I still wish you the best of luck.

8 1/2 lengths Gallante was beaten by Ectot

diomed

So they didn't meet, and the rest is supposition.

Peintre Celebre

Hyperbole. Gallante would be 66 or bigger for this not sure why Prince Gibraltar is that short

diomed

Gallante beat Prince Gibraltar a short neck with Teletext 2 1/2 lengths third.
Ectot beat Teletext a neck.

How did that happen? Surely Ectot should have beaten Teletext by a few lengths?

Peintre Celebre

Did you watch the race or are you looking at a result

tryfix

diomed wrote: »

Prince Gibraltar is my pick (drawn 9 of 20)


I dismissed this horse until I looked at his runs on Youtube. His form 311-1323 seemed to be disimproving.

A worry is his “held up in rear/in last” comments.
Mostly ridden by Christophe Soumillon of “held up in last trio” Orfevre Arc fame.
There is some doubt about staying 12f as his dam had her one win over 9 ½ f and his sire’s maximum distance was 8f.
But Prince Gibraltar was btn a snk in an 11 runner 12f Group 1 very soft “closing on winner”.
In the French Derby 10 ½f “last halfway, stayed on strongly and went 3rd close home, nearest finish”.
Won over 10f as a 2yo would suggest a plodder, but he has imo shown finishing speed since!
.
.
.

09/11/13 Criterium de Saint-Cloud 2yo 10f heavy. No 6 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbEXOsbzI9M

.
.
.

03/05/14 Prix Greffulhe 3yo 10f soft. No 3 in maroon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZBCt2N-D4

.
.
.
01/06/14 Prix du Jockey Club 10.5f good. maroon
Last with 600m to go. 3rd closing on The Grey Gatsby at the finish

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7Afg3Ar82Q

.
.
.

13/07/14 Grand Prix de Paris 3yo 12f very soft. No 3 green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7pviY00KJg

2nd btn a snk. He proves imo here he gets 12f. The Grey Gatsby didn't stay.
A new owner probably told the jockey to stop the "waited with in last" game.
.
.
.

15/08/14 Prix Guillame D'Ornano 3yo 10f heavy. Green jacket, pink sleeves, blue cap.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slNM2jwM1bc

The jockey is easy on the horse in the last 200m.
.
.
.
Antepost I have only €71 at 40.45. Looked for another €110 at 44 to 50 but the price dropped to 36.
Just got another €40 at 40 in the day of race market so I'm posting on boards now. Asking for more at 40+.

His draw in 9 is fair. I would prefer 5 or 6. Worried that the jock might pull him back.
I see his jockey Jean-Bernard Eyquem has two Group 1 wins: Tie Black in the 2006 French 1000 Guineas (promoted winner); Shaka in the 1996 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
A slight worry is that Avenir Certain (draw 1) and Prince Gibraltar (draw 9) are both trained by J-C Rouget but different ownership.
Hopefully PG not a pacemaker. Avenir Certain and outsider Montviron (draw 11) linked ownership.
Prince Gibraltar described on the Betfair forum as "not the most willing or straight forward".

Sorry to disappoint those waiting for some inside info.

Good pick for an outsider, there are good form lines there though he would need soft ground to show his best and I don't think there're too many stamina worries even with his speedy pedigree because he won a Gp1 over 10f as a 2yo. A race that has worked out well with the decent types such as subsequent Gp3 winners Hartnell and Mekong River thrashed as well as the Gp1 Prix Saint Alary 3rd promoted to second Bereni Ka.


He's roughly about the same horse as Kingston Hill, who beat Hartnell 6 1/2l in the Leger vs Prince Gibraltar's 6 3/4l Gp 1 2yo win over the same horse.

Don't think either Kingston Hill or Prince Gibraltar are fast enough to be in a close enough position at the business end of the race to challenge for a win in the Arc unless the ground is like a bog.

Gringo180

Have narrowed it down to 3 horses. The winner will come from 1 of Chicquita, Ivanhowe or Kingston Hill. Yous heard it here first lads!!!

Gringo180

Avenir Certain surely cant win an Arc on pedigree. Sire stands at only 7k, ill eat my hat if that wins an Arc :pac:

Backstreet Moyes

Can you back singles on the pmu for the arc? I was told if you back an O Brien horse on the pmu you can only get a package for all his horses.

Peintre Celebre

Gringo180 wrote: »

Avenir Certain surely cant win an Arc on pedigree. Sire stands at only 7k, ill eat my hat if that wins an Arc :pac:

In fairness this is his first crop. He himself won a French derby. Hurricane Run (ectot) only stands at 8k I think. I'd be more worried about type of sire as opposed to price. That said even Danehill sired an Arc winner, there can be flukes in breeding, cirrus des Aigles always a good example

diomed

This looks like being a fast ground year.
I posted in 2012 on Betfair that the soil at Longchamp is clay soil.
Clay cracks when dry and is very hard and fast. When wet if becomes heavy and clinging.

You will see that the faster the time the more important a low draw, especially in a large field. I assume fast ground gives a fast pace and less chance to gain ground. In the small fields in 2000 and 2006 the draw was less important.

Time secs ____ Year______Winner drawn

144.49 secs ___Yr 2011___winner drawn 2/16
144.60 secs ___Yr 1997___winner drawn 2/18
144.70 secs ___Yr 2002___winner drawn 3/16
145.00 secs ___Yr 2004___winner drawn 5/19
145.80 secs ___Yr 2000___winner drawn 7/10
146.30 secs ___Yr 2009___winner drawn 6/19
146.30 secs ___Yr 2006___winner drawn 4/8
147.40 secs ___Yr 2005___winner drawn 6/15
148.50 secs ___Yr 2007___winner drawn 6/12
148.80 secs ___Yr 2008___winner drawn 1/16
149.90 secs ___Yr 1996___winner drawn 5/16
151.10 secs ___Yr 1994___winner drawn 2/20
151.40 secs ___Yr 1991___winner drawn 12/14
151.80 secs ___Yr 1995___winner drawn 7/16
152.04 secs ___Yr 2013___winner drawn 15/17
152.30 secs ___Yr 2003___winner drawn 14/13 *
154.50 secs ___Yr 1998___winner drawn 7/14
155.30 secs ___Yr 2010___winner drawn 8/18
156.10 secs ___Yr 2001___winner drawn 15/17
157.68 secs ___Yr 2012___winner drawn 6/18
157.90 secs ___Yr 1993___winner drawn 9/23
158.50 secs ___Yr 1999___winner drawn 4/14
159.00 secs ___Yr 1992___winner drawn 14/18

* a horse drawn 14 in a field of 13 won.
I am not listing 1971 to 1990 because I have only four years data.
Draw was not recorded in the racing annuals / probably not recorded.

In the 12 fastest Arcs in that 23 year period the lowest drawn winner was 7, and that was in a small field of 10.

I am place laying these horses because they are drawn high and their odds are low.
Ectot (10); Just A Way (14); Taghrooda (15); Ivanhowe (19); Kingston Hill (20)

Perhaps a high drawn horse will win. It's a funny old game.

Pinesky

Nice piece of analysis.
Well done

Backstreet Moyes

Can't believe Treve and Tapestry are the same price.

tryfix

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

In fairness this is his first crop. He himself won a French derby. Hurricane Run (ectot) only stands at 8k I think. I'd be more worried about type of sire as opposed to price. That said even Danehill sired an Arc winner, there can be flukes in breeding, cirrus des Aigles always a good example

There's plenty of stamina in Le Havre's pedigree, his dam is a really stoutly bred German mare. He had a Gp 2 winner over 1m 7f today at Longchamp and he's a fabulous sire when you consider his first crop were conceived from a fee of just €5,000. He'd make a nice addition to some stud over here.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Treve same draw as last year. Winner Alright ... 10/1

:D:D:D:D:eek::eek::eek::eek: