House prices rising in Commuter towns

The Spider

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

http://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/auctioneers-report-rise-in-viewings-and-sales-30413530.html

People can't afford Dublin and are moving out, Kildare has gone past value at this stage, Gorey, is on the outer limits of a commute down the east coast. But still value there.

http://www.thejournal.ie/price-of-a-three-bedroom-home-rising-faster-1540626-Jun2014/

Other towns picking up the pace, inevitable as people can't buy in Dublin, or at the very least can't buy the type of house in the area they want. it just depends on how quickly you come to that realisation and how quickly you act on it.

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

the supply issue could be tackled a lot quicker than that time frame if the government will was there which its not sadly for first time buyers, renters and the homeless.

I wonder how pee'd off these people will be being forced to go so far from friends and family to have somewhere decent to live and the time and money spent commuting

elections should be interesting, no wonder the government is trying to buy off public servants again!

suppose its good news for the commuters with rising prices though, should help towards getting back to Dublin!

The Spider

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

the supply issue could be tackled a lot quicker than that time frame if the government will was there which its not sadly for first time buyers, renters and the homeless.

I wonder how pee'd off these people will be being forced to go so far from friends and family to have somewhere decent to live and the time and money spent commuting

elections should be interesting, no wonder the government is trying to buy off public servants again!

suppose its good news for the commuters with rising prices though, should help towards getting back to Dublin!

Live in Gorey so interest declared, not from Dublin, work there, but have no interest in getting back, just on a side note the amount of people around Gorey with Dublin accents is unreal to the point where I find it unusual when I hear a Wexford accent, and I'm talking all hues of Dublin accent, from D4 to D8 or D15.

I know it's summer and there's usually a few more around but, it seems to be all year round. Gorey is constantly buzzing, in terms of restaurants and pubs and when a shop closes down another one is in it's place in days, unlike Arklow, which seems to be constantly boarded up.

And I say that as an observation not as everyone should come live in Gorey, just find it surreal how quickly businesses open up.

quadrifoglio verde

What I'm shocked about is how easy people forget.
Fine if they want to live miles away from family and friends for the rest of their lives, but if it's just so they can say they own a house, no thanks.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

Live in Gorey so interest declared, not from Dublin, work there, but have no interest in getting back, just on a side note the amount of people around Gorey with Dublin accents is unreal to the point where I find it unusual when I hear a Wexford accent, and I'm talking all hues of Dublin accent, from D4 to D8 or D15.

I know it's summer and there's usually a few more around but, it seems to be all year round. Gorey is constantly buzzing, in terms of restaurants and pubs and when a shop closes down another one is in it's place in days, unlike Arklow, which seems to be constantly boarded up.

I'd say half of the people I know who decided to 'do the commute' where happy with the decision in the long run, I think it depends on the person/people, it wouldn't be for me though.

I was in navan town a few weeks back and it might as well been finglas with the amount of Dublin accents around the place, it was weird

TheDriver

Indeed people are forgetting very quickly.....

ionapaul

The Spider wrote: »

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

http://www.independent.ie/regionals/enniscorthyguardian/news/auctioneers-report-rise-in-viewings-and-sales-30413530.html

People can't afford Dublin and are moving out, Kildare has gone past value at this stage, Gorey, is on the outer limits of a commute down the east coast. But still value there.

http://www.thejournal.ie/price-of-a-three-bedroom-home-rising-faster-1540626-Jun2014/

Other towns picking up the pace, inevitable as people can't buy in Dublin, or at the very least can't buy the type of house in the area they want. it just depends on how quickly you come to that realisation and how quickly you act on it.

Have another 5 years at least of increases, barring an outside shock, and after that I can't guess, just going on lack of supply and how long it'll take to supply the demand.

If there are another 5 years of sustained increases from here surely you (and me and everyone in the country) don't need to guess what will happen? Another crazy boom will be followed by another crazy bust!

I'm saying that as someone looking for a place to buy right now, hoping we are at the top of the market for the foreseeable future. Another few years of 5%+ rises will mean a subsequent decade of misery as sure as night follows day.

The Spider

ionapaul wrote: »

If there are another 5 years of sustained increases from here surely you (and me and everyone in the country) don't need to guess what will happen? Another crazy boom will be followed by another crazy bust!

I'm saying that as someone looking for a place to buy right now, hoping we are at the top of the market for the foreseeable future. Another few years of 5%+ rises will mean a subsequent decade of misery as sure as night follows day.

Yep I know what happened last time, could see it a mile off, the difference this time is that there's been no building since the bust, that's going on 6-7 years of supply that didn't happen, and people didn't buy as they waited.

There is no supply but massive demand, so prices will keep increasing until supply at least meets demand.

So you can use that in any assessment about whether to buy or where to buy, prices in Dublin won't come down for the foreseeable future, they can't unless everyone decides they don't want to buy a house.

The reason prices are rising in the commuter belt is that people have realised this, and are now getting the houses they want, rather than less of a house in the commuter belt in two years time.

I've noticed in the past two years down my neck of the woods that the great locations have been snapped up.

Mr.McLovin

The Spider wrote: »

There is no supply but massive demand, so prices will keep increasing until supply at least meets demand.

without doubt there is an imbalance with the supply and demand but I don't think anyone really knows how big it is.

we do know mortgage approvals are up on last year but not hugely, who knows how many cash buyers are out there or where they are even coming from.

the listed house numbers on daft or myhome aren't greatly below those listed from last year, the ppr does show a greater number of house being bought in the Dublin area this year up by maybe 200 per month...

a lot of this is media driven and of course people are going to panic, luckily enough this time round the credit isn't available to them to do too much damage to themselves but I'm sure they're sickened having to throw vast amounts of burrowed money from the last few years...

The Spider

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

without doubt there is an imbalance with the supply and demand but I don't think anyone really knows how big it is.

we do know mortgage approvals are up on last year but not hugely, who knows how many cash buyers are out there or where they are even coming from.

the listed house numbers on daft or myhome aren't greatly below those listed from last year, the ppr does show a greater number of house being bought in the Dublin area this year up by maybe 200 per month...

a lot of this is media driven and of course people are going to panic, luckily enough this time round the credit isn't available to them to do too much damage to themselves but I'm sure they're sickened having to throw vast amounts of burrowed money from the last few years...

I'd say apart from cash buyers, that there's plenty out there with deposits of between 60 and 120k, that'll go a long way towards convincing a bank to give you a mortgage.

EarnestH

This whole situation has not happened by accident. This housing bubble has been engineered by the governments in collusion with the banks - and it is working perfectly for them. The banks balance sheet is nicely improving just in time for the Autumn stress tests. And it works beautifully for Fine Gael's core voter - those living in leafy suburbs in Dublin who are in negative equity. The coping class (or the rich Irish as I like to call them).

True, the solution is new construction. But in my view, the biggest driver of this bubble is the lack of repossessions. If those who can't afford to pay their mortgage we repossessed there would be far less pressure on price. But repossessions are far too unpalatable for FG. So blame FG, yes. But blame the soul sucking parasites who living in the houses that rightfully should be on the market, if it weren't for our inept administration and its obsessive zeal with protecting the Rich Irish.

This bubble has been very carefully engineered by the FG elitist party.

Personally, I've given up on this silly little country.

_Kaiser_

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

What I'm shocked about is how easy people forget.
Fine if they want to live miles away from family and friends for the rest of their lives, but if it's just so they can say they own a house, no thanks.

Unfortunately the current problem isn't just related to those who want to "get on the property ladder" again, but also those who are renting and being forced to move further out by spiraling prices in that sector too.

markpb

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Unfortunately the current problem isn't just related to those who want to "get on the property ladder" again, but also those who are renting and being forced to move further out by spiraling prices in that sector too.

This.

It's not (necessarily) because people are rushing to buy a home or because they're stopped or forgetful. Rent is skyrocketing in Dublin and people are worried that they'll be forced to move in order to afford the rent. Moving is very difficult if you have kids who are or will be going to school. Telling someone they can no longer afford to live in Sandyford but Lucan (or further afield) is affordable is of no use if they move to Lucan and can't get a place in a school anywhere near there. This is the reality for many people I know right now.

lima

Had to look Gorey up, it's in the countryside

A lot of the 'sitting on the fence' people have moved on and are content with renting. There's no value in Dublin, but there's a hell of a lot of money people want to invest in property.

MouseTail

lima wrote: »

Had to look Gorey up, it's in the countryside

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

markpb

MouseTail wrote: »

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

Why do we want to satisfy peoples desire to live in areas that will be more expensive to bring utilities to, will have less facilities (leading to antisocial behaviour in the future) and are almost guaranteed to become car dependent because it won't be feasible for public transport to serve?

murphaph

MouseTail wrote: »

Its not really, its just outside the GDA. We have to stop seeing our capital city as bounded by the M50, and build the infrastructure and transport links to link the hinterland, it is the only way to satisfy our lust for low density living.

Or we could try building a mix of apartment types with quality communal spaces. I don't think we've really tried that yet except in planned new towns like Adamstown.

The Spider

Irish people don't want to live in apartments, and that's a fact. They want houses with gardens, given the choice between living on the third floor of an apartment block with kids, or living in the country and commuting in I know what I and many others would choose. This is being borne out by the rise in prices in these areas.

As soon as the motorway is finished, going down to Gorey especially from a southside location is really going to take no time at all, prices in locations all along that stretch will increase, that's all of Wicklow and North Wexford.

MouseTail

murphaph wrote: »

Or we could try building a mix of apartment types with quality communal spaces. I don't think we've really tried that yet except in planned new towns like Adamstown.

Are they mutually exclusive? An inner city (and I see that as inside the M50 as opposed to the canals) with high density housing and quality leisure and work spaces, and 21st century transport links to the GDA.

lima

MouseTail wrote: »

Are they mutually exclusive? An inner city (and I see that as inside the M50 as opposed to the canals) with high density housing and quality leisure and work spaces, and 21st century transport links to the GDA.

Unfortunately we don't have the public transport to deal with urban sprawl, it's not like the UK - when I lived in Surrey and Commuted into London for a while. I have friends pushed out of London and now live miles out but can get a train in in 30min. We only have a couple of train lines like that. I personally don't want to have to commute/drive every day as it takes away from quality of life.

Dublin's broken and it will not be fixed for 20-30 years. We should have had high rise apartments in the city built years ago, but I guess we were too poor in the 50's, 60's and 70's for that to happen, and we are now dealing with a rich city with a 'poor city' layout, with the effect that the city center is primarily comprised of little 1930's houses where there should be European post-war style apartment blocks. I don't know what the highly-paid, backwards looking jobs-for-the-boys old men are doing in the city planning offices!

Couple that with the lack of will to deal with cleaning up the bad parts of the city center - the North Inner-city and South-Inner City - these are places where high-density european-style apartments could (and should) have been built and I would be happy to live in a place like that. Unfortunately the only way for me to enjoy my ideal lifestyle (inner-city cosmopolitan living - I don't have kids yet) is to rent.

Mr. Loverman

The Spider wrote: »

I said this was going to happen, now we see substitution effect in action.

The Spider wrote: »

Have another 5 years at least of increases

The Spider wrote: »

Yep I know what happened last time, could see it a mile off

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Eldarion

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Like his post on Boards even compares to the tripe the Meeja and other VIs spurt out on a daily basis in regards to the property market.

If people can't learn from events that occurred less than 6 years ago then they deserve to get burned this time around.

Peter File

Eldarion wrote: »

Like his post on Boards even compares to the tripe the Meeja and other VIs spurt out on a daily basis in regards to the property market.

If people can't learn from events that occurred less than 6 years ago then they deserve to get burned this time around.

Pretty much every post from the o.p is pushing the line that prices are going to keep rising. When will people realise that high house and apartment prices are very bad for the economy.
I wouldnt be too happy commuting to Dublin from Goreym an expensive and long commute

The Spider

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Etc. etc.

I've been using the internet long enough to recognize these sorts of posts.

You're trying to convince people you're clever and they should buy in the middle of nowhere. It's embarrassing.

The sad thing is, people will fall for it.

Ah yes the rage is strong in this one. Listen buddy I don't care where people buy, if they buy or not, up to them. Even Mc Williams is reluctantly agreeing that prices won't fall, People should buy where they're happy to live. If you're happy to live in Sandymount or Foxrock you should look at buying there.

The point I'm making is that people will move out of Dublin if they want to own, that simple. Prices won't come down, not enough supply and too much demand, nowhere to build inside the M50, unless you rezone Marley Park.

murphaph

If we had any cop on we'd move ahead with Dart Underground and get developing the vast tracts of land along the railway in west Dublin. Clonburris should be just the start. Any other city worth its salt would have heavily developed the lands adjacent to their mass transit corridors. I suppose we're lucky on that we can still do it and hit high density with good variety of unit type and size.

lima

murphaph wrote: »

If we had any cop on we'd move ahead with Dart Underground and get developing the vast tracts of land along the railway in west Dublin. Clonburris should be just the start. Any other city worth its salt would have heavily developed the lands adjacent to their mass transit corridors. I suppose we're lucky on that we can still do it and hit high density with good variety of unit type and size.

I guess there are too many vested interests in govt who have 14+ properties according to public sources - they want to restrict stock as much as possible to get their property to increase - It's Ireland

When there's a war on 100's of miles away there are protests in Dublin but when the public are getting slowly ripped off by the people they voted in no one bats an eyelid.

jackal

EarnestH wrote: »

This whole situation has not happened by accident. This housing bubble has been engineered by the governments in collusion with the banks - and it is working perfectly for them. The banks balance sheet is nicely improving just in time for the Autumn stress tests. And it works beautifully for Fine Gael's core voter - those living in leafy suburbs in Dublin who are in negative equity. The coping class (or the rich Irish as I like to call them).

True, the solution is new construction. But in my view, the biggest driver of this bubble is the lack of repossessions. If those who can't afford to pay their mortgage we repossessed there would be far less pressure on price. But repossessions are far too unpalatable for FG. So blame FG, yes. But blame the soul sucking parasites who living in the houses that rightfully should be on the market, if it weren't for our inept administration and its obsessive zeal with protecting the Rich Irish.

This bubble has been very carefully engineered by the FG elitist party.

Personally, I've given up on this silly little country.

Sorry but there is little to no appetite in the general public for large scale repossessions. Of course those that want to buy would love for a new supply tap to be opened, but the media and the opposition parties would crucify the government if they allowed mass evictions to happen.

Sure the media jumps on the few hardchaw cases that do actually get evicted and act like its the famine times again with heartfelt "woe is me" articles about the unlucky couple or whatever. Of course the stories are quietly dropped when it turns out the couple are property barons, chancers living for free, or simply idiots who chose not to repay and thought they would get a free ride.

So while I don't disagree that it suits the government, it is certainly not engineered. Repossesions would give endless ammunition to the opposition parties and there is always an election on the way.

Thargor

I dont know about that^ Jackal, people always say it but I think a few high profile 5-properties-collecting-rents but no payments for 4 years type case might quickly dull any sympathy from the public and let repossessions become commonplace. I was optimistic that was what was happening with those 2 chancers with their tent in the driveway out in Kiliney a while ago when the media and people before profit/occupy Dame st (who? lol) all rallied around them then were left with egg on their faces 24 hours later when it emerged they had 14 other properties dotted around the place but then it fizzled out and we were back to the norm.

Mr.McLovin

BTLs should have moved on along time ago, its scandalous when you think of it

Mr. Loverman

The Spider wrote: »

I don't care where people buy, if they buy or not, up to them.

I don't believe you. It is obvious you have an agenda.

Unfortunately I can tell by your post history you think you're smarter than everyone, but you're not. You're certainly not smarter than me as I can smell your bull**** a mile away.

jackal

Thargor wrote: »

I dont know about that^ Jackal, people always say it but I think a few high profile 5-properties-collecting-rents but no payments for 4 years type case might quickly dull any sympathy from the public and let repossessions become commonplace. I was optimistic that was what was happening with those 2 chancers with their tent in the driveway out in Kiliney a while ago when the media and people before profit/occupy Dame st (who? lol) all rallied around them then were left with egg on their faces 24 hours later when it emerged they had 14 other properties dotted around the place but then it fizzled out and we were back to the norm.

Well I think that just proves the point, no? I totally agree that the chancers should be brought to heel, but there seems to be an agreed agenda across the media in Ireland that eviction is bad, period. Every time something comes up the story is framed in an extremely sympathetic manner to the person under threat of eviction, and when the story turns out to not support the agenda it is quietly dropped. Most people do form their opinions from consuming news from media outlets, and they are the same people that make up the majority of the vote in elections.

You get small vocal groups like this protest group turning up at "distressed property" auctions, supported by populist TD's and managing to get agreements not to sell distressed assets... and this is a foreign based property group, who you think would not be too worried about bad PR. http://www.thejournal.ie/property-auction-abandoned-dublin-978695-Jul2013/

I just don't see it happening.