Price Changes FPL 14/15 **Mod warning 1st post**

qwabercd

OneColdHand wrote: »

Fpl stats is the most accurate (that I'm aware of anyway). They give their accuaracy at the top of the page - currently 98% for risers and 97% for fallers.

It's impossible to calculate the accuracy really. For eg it might say for most of the day that a player isn't due a rise. At midnight, it might switch to say he's due a rise, and they calculate that as being accurate, when in reality for most of the day it wasn't. This is most noticeable on a Saturday morning a few hours after the transfer window, loads of players will be due a rise based on high transfer rate early in the morning. Closer to midnight these players won't be showing as due to rise and again that will go down as being accurate when they don't rise.

AlanDeGenerous

FFFix' accuracy is absolutely plummeting. Is it possible they changed the algorithim again, or is it likely a DGW issue?

No fallers or risers last night, btw.

jimmii

AlanDeGenerous wrote: »

FFFix' accuracy is absolutely plummeting. Is it possible they changed the algorithim again, or is it likely a DGW issue?

No fallers or risers last night, btw.

It appeared earlier in the season that WC transfers didn't impact in price changes so I guess its impossible for them to differentiate between WC transfers and non-WC transfers. Maybe?!

iroced

qwabercd wrote: »

It's impossible to calculate the accuracy really. For eg it might say for most of the day that a player isn't due a rise. At midnight, it might switch to say he's due a rise, and they calculate that as being accurate, when in reality for most of the day it wasn't. This is most noticeable on a Saturday morning a few hours after the transfer window, loads of players will be due a rise based on high transfer rate early in the morning. Closer to midnight these players won't be showing as due to rise and again that will go down as being accurate when they don't rise.

Well, what matters is their accuracy at approx. 1.40 am GMT when price does actually change in FPL.

AlanDeGenerous wrote: »

FFFix' accuracy is absolutely plummeting. Is it possible they changed the algorithim again, or is it likely a DGW issue?

I haven't used the site for quite some time. But they issued a statement during the Jan WC period that they were experiencing difficulties to account for the WC effect. For what I remember they were back to some decent predictions after it. Don't think I used the site since the first DGW and thus the last WC episode of the season. Maybe they again struggle to cope with it.

FPLstats have asked their users to give them their ID when they did use their WC such that they could take them into account. I don't know exactly what they've been doing but they're the more reliable site anyway.

iroced

F1ngers

Rooney and Ameobi down.
Pelle up.

G1032

Up - Adrian
Down - Murray, Clyne, Remy

iroced

Ramsey, Giroud, Bellerin & Young UP !

Silva, Bolasie, Murray, McGregor, Eriksen, Ki, Ideye, Zouma, ADM, Hernandez, Thomas & Nene DOWN !


---

Basically Arsenal in, Crystal Palace & Silva out !

iroced

Sanchez, Benteke, Terry & Morgan UP !

Sterling, Kane, Berahino, Wollscheid, Dann, Murray, Elia, Gouffran, Kramaric, Gabriel, Cuadrado, Lowton & Arfield DOWN !

ShaneU

Murray hat-trick!

Invincible

Risers: None



Fallers:

Austin

Mason

Song

spock.

Lost 0.1 on Austin :mad:
Unlikely to matter anyhow.
I could have done Austin-->Giroud last night but wanted to wait for Arsenal to play

Invincible

spock. wrote: »

Lost 0.1 on Austin :mad:
Unlikely to matter anyhow.
I could have done Austin-->Giroud last night but wanted to wait for Arsenal to play

Tempting as it was, but if Giroud got injured tonight you'd kick yourself.

iroced

Azpi & Jagielka UP !

Gayle DOWN !

Lemlin

iroced wrote: »

Azpi & Jagielka UP !

Gayle DOWN !

Interesting to see Azpi go up. I would of thought he's a player who can easily be rotated.

NabyLadistheman

Benteke or Rambo rise tonight? I've had a quick look there on fpl stats but not sure

iroced

Suarezistheman wrote: »

Benteke or Rambo rise tonight? I've had a quick look there on fpl stats but not sure

They're both around 88% right now. So they could rise... But recent history indicates they shouldn't. Tonight at least.

FHFC

Suarezistheman wrote: »

Benteke or Rambo rise tonight? I've had a quick look there on fpl stats but not sure

Benteke rising according to FFFix. Ramsey 95% but projected to go tomorrow. Flag will probably slow him down a lot.

Invincible

Risers:

Montreal

Ulloa

Faller:

Murray

IK09

Murray has taken some pounding. 0.4m drop in 6 days, with Utd next and LFC after that....titanic-esque

keano_afc

IK09 wrote: »

Murray has taken some pounding. 0.4m drop in 6 days, with Utd next and LFC after that....titanic-esque

Delighted. Brought the useless lump in after his 36 points in 3 weeks and he proceeded to score 3 points in the next 2 home games. Thunderbastard

Lemlin

keano_afc wrote: »

Delighted. Brought the useless lump in after his 36 points in 3 weeks and he proceeded to score 3 points in the next 2 home games. Thunderbastard

That and Bolasie are the perfect examples of bandwagons. The wheels only stay on so long.

Ziegler1988

Lemlin wrote: »

That and Bolasie are the perfect examples of bandwagons. The wheels only stay on so long.

Bolasie was the ultimate bandwagon. Murray had more form and history of goal scoring, but his chance conversion percentage was ridiculously unsustainable

Iused2likebusts

Ziegler1988 wrote: »

Bolasie was the ultimate bandwagon. Murray had more form and history of goal scoring, but his chance conversion percentage was ridiculously unsustainable

bolasie had 4 goals in 99 games before that hat trick

Invincible

Risers:

Aguero

Benteke

Cazorla

Ramsey

Faller:

Henderson

km79

Invincible wrote: »

Risers:

Aguero

Benteke

Cazorla

Ramsey

Faller:

Henderson

oh cazorla up.........could do without another rise from him before Monday night while I decide
and Ramsey again crap

A Brad Maddox Guy

That could be disastrous for me. I couldn't decide on my transfer this week as any Henderson >>> Ramsey move would have required 3 transfers (-4) and things are too tight in my league (I've a 5 point lead but a worse midfield). Now I think it would need 4 transfers so my hand is probably forced into a different plan now.

Invincible

Risers:

Ospina 4.9 - 5.0

Sanchez 11.3 - 11.4

Fallers:

Hernandez 6.5 - 6.4

Naughton 4.1 - 4.0

manual_man

up: Silva
down: Clark, Rooney, Fabianski, Kane, Sterling, Hazard, Murray, Remy, Fabregas, Austin, Besic, Moreno, Mane, Kramaric

spock.

UP

Albrighton
Elmohamady
Bellerin
Benteke

Down

Downing
Mannone
Clyne
Puncheon
Oscar
Ideye
Gardos